For the optimists

BYU is 4-0. We beat everyone we have played and we have not played our best game yet.

Amen brother! Hopefully the best is yet to come and we still somehow get Taysom to come back for next year!

Only for optimists: According to Sagarin, there are only 4 undefeated teams who have played tougher schedules than BYU. These four are Oklahoma, Fla. St., Auburn, and UCLA. Therefore we should be ranked #5.

Interesting article with good points. http://lawlessrepublic.com/2014/09/23/national-pundits-will-always-turn-bo-diddley-angle-byu-football/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



I still do not see any way BYU makes the playoff. The FSU argument would never fly with those in the mix. FSU DESTROYED everyone last year (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-13/acc/2013-florida-state-seminoles-football-schedule.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;), the least amount of points that FSU had was 37 (only game under 40 pts) and they still won by 30 points. They also played a top 10 Clemson team and won 51-14, they also won a conference championship game. Not sure how you refute those points, what does BYU comeback with to fight back....talk about beating bad UT team in big way (not the same cachet) or beating UH/UVA by 8 at home? What is the signature win?



BYU can't simply win, they must destroy every team and win by 3-5 touchdowns on average and put up over 40 pts a game....beating UH and UVA by 8 does not get the media nor selection committee excited (maybe for a top 25 vote but not the CFP). If they don't no way they even get a look and they will be a victim of their schedule not playing any top 25 teams and no marque win. You can spin the numbers, but when the media sees a SEC team with a worse/similar SOS to BYU on national TV (potentially Game Day being there) beat a top 5/10 team the SEC team will always get the nod, same with PAC 12, FSU, ND, etc etc.



Above are mentioned the rankings.....who cares at this point. BYU needs to win and win big, the teams mentioned will likely have hiccups and others will emerge. Again, the disadvantage we have is the schedule and the unfortunate situation of having UT, BSU etc all be down at the same time. If we had last years schedule this year and BYU dominated WI and ND on the road and won by multiple TDs they would have a legit shot, not with this schedule (I also think there is little chance this years team goes to WI or ND and wins by multiple TDs).



Fair or not, for arguments sake does anyone think BYU goes undefeated through a PAC 12, SEC, ND schedule? I don't see it, but we should be happy we have a legit shot to go undefeated, make a New Years bowl game, have a QB in the top 5-10 for Heisman and come back primed for 2015. Any talk of the CFP, in my opinion, is a fantasy......it could happen but not likely at all (I technically COULD win the lottery) and I am not sure we could compete against top 4 teams at the moment.

Maybe we can't compete with a top 4 team but we would compete better than last year's team and I think we are closing that gap as we move forward.

scott715 wrote:
Maybe we can't compete with a top 4 team but we would compete better than last year's team and I think we are closing that gap as we move forward.

Agreed, that gap is closing. Last years team was pushed around by WI and ND, I think BYU closing the gap but not to that point yet. I think the defense we have major issues with a top tier offense. On offense I think we could have success if TH did not turn the ball over. In a game vs the top 4 (or even top 10) I think BYU would keep it close early and then a the other team would pull ahead in the 2H.

scott715 wrote:
Maybe we can't compete with a top 4 team but we would compete better than last year's team and I think we are closing that gap as we move forward.

I actually think we can compete (meaning keep the game respectable with chances to win) with any team in the country on any given day. As for consistently winning those games, I agree that we aren't there yet, but we are building towards that. Our recruiting is improving, and as more talent gets more excited about BYU, our teams will get even better. I believe the coaching all around is pretty solid right now, which hasn't been the case for many years. That continuity will pay dividends in the future.

NDCougar wrote:
I still do not see any way BYU makes the playoff. The FSU argument would never fly with those in the mix. FSU DESTROYED everyone last year (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-13/acc/2013-florida-state-seminoles-football-schedule.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;), the least amount of points that FSU had was 37 (only game under 40 pts) and they still won by 30 points. They also played a top 10 Clemson team and won 51-14, they also won a conference championship game. Not sure how you refute those points, what does BYU comeback with to fight back....talk about beating bad UT team in big way (not the same cachet) or beating UH/UVA by 8 at home? What is the signature win?

Florida St. was the consensus No. 1 team last year. BYU isn't.



All we need is #4.



So, look at the 2013 contenders for the #4 spot -



Michigan St. (12-1, B1G Champ)

Stanford (11-2, PAC 12 Champ)

Baylor (11-1, Big 12 Champ)



Michigan St.'s loss was to unranked Notre Dame. Stanford lost twice, including a loss to unranked Utah and #25 USC. Baylor lost AT #13 Oklahoma St. and had extremely weak OOC competition (Wofford, Buffalo, and UL Monroe).



Undefeated BYU would have a fighting chance against those types of contenders.





We will know a lot more about BYU's chances in the next 4 weeks:



BYU will have played G5 Access bid contenders UCF and Nevada.



Texas will have played both Baylor and Oklahoma. Virginia will have played ACC contenders Pitt and Duke. Houston will have played UCF, Memphis, and Temple. We'll know whether our wins mean much.

The article brought up FSU not me. Silly comparison if you ask me. Also backs up the point of SOS views can vary, not just on the ultimate rank but the perception on who you beat. FSU had a big win and like I said they destroyed everyone.



I believe MSU and Baylor would both have both gotten the nod over BYU.



MSU beat nearly every team by double digits (yes the BIG 10 is weak, but BYU schedule is not perceived to be tough) and they beat Ohio State (#2 at the time) who was undefeated in the Conference Championship by 10. Also FYI, ND was ranked to end the regular season #25. Not impressive, but a correction.



Baylor crushed every team but their loss. They beat Oklahoma by 29 points. Oklahoma was #4 at the time.



BYU is in a really tough spot. How many ranked teams do we play? What marquee wins do we have? Fair or not we will get lumped in was NIU, Hawaii, Cincy etc etc as good teams but not CFP worthy. I don't like it, but without big wins that is how I see it playing. We both know that every P5 school will be fighting their case in the media why SOS, key wins, conference championships are the keys to entrance.



BYU, IMHO, is not ready to be a CFP team.......we are looking good but not destroying weak competition (ex-UT, that is how these games should have gone if we were a top 4 team).

And those P5 teams will have their conference mates supporting their profile.

I'm not sure there's 4 dominant programs out there. In fact other than FSU and Oklahoma, it's possible that there won't be another 1 loss P5 team. (I don't see FSU and Oklahoma (and I guess Oregon) losing 2, but it's possible that every p12 team, every big 10 team, every sec team could have 2 losses by playoff time...) ... so what happens with an undefeated BYU and let's say 2-3 1 loss teams and a 2 loss SEC team?

craigoscarson wrote:
I'm not sure there's 4 dominant programs out there. In fact other than FSU and Oklahoma, it's possible that there won't be another 1 loss P5 team. (I don't see FSU and Oklahoma (and I guess Oregon) losing 2, but it's possible that every p12 team, every big 10 team, every sec team could have 2 losses by playoff time...) ... so what happens with an undefeated BYU and let's say 2-3 1 loss teams and a 2 loss SEC team?

In that case BYU has an argument. I don't think it will happen. An SEC team is in, nearly guaranteed, it is whether they get two in. The rest of the conferences "should" have at worst a champion with one loss.



There are far fetched scenarios so keep your fingers crossed they all happen, BYU dominates the rest of their games and all the P5's crush eachother.

BYU needs to shore up their defense. If the defense gets back to playing assignment sound football with the talent they have, I would put BYU up against anyone this year. Our offense has destroyed everyone we have played so far this year. If it weren't for penalties and undisciplined defense, we would have destroyed everyone by at least 3 td's this season.

Thanks for this thread. Great challenge. Here's my attempt at being as optimistic as I can while still relying on as solid evidence as I can find. Warning: Long Friday Post.



There are three reasons why I believe BYU could, given the chance, play for and win the national championship game: their likely opponent, their surging competence, the Taysom factor.



Opponent:



To begin with we have to play a what-if game. On any other thread you'd say BYU has zero chance at playoff shot, and leave it at that. On this thread we'll at least allow that BYU couldn't even get in the playoffs unless it had help. But suppose it COULD get in the playoffs. Here's how it might go down. Besides running the table (optimism!) two conferences other than the SEC must have champions with two losses each. Possible conferences where this could happen: Big 10, and Big 12. If we assume those conference knock each other off, BYU's Texas beatdown helps put the cougs in the dance. What's next is BYU plays the champ of the PAC, the ACC and the SEC. Could they stack up?



Flat out I think BYU beats Florida State. I know everyone says superior athletes etc, but in reality FSU played a weaker schedule all last year than BYU has played so far this year. They are weaker than people suppose, and Virginia may expose this.



Oregon has lost some momentum after last week's tangle with Mike Leach and Arizona's maintenance against Cal (don't forget where Anae learned his craft) and UCLA's blowout this week, it's pretty easy for people to think they will stumble. UCLA might be for real. But consider how Texas played UCLA, and that matchup looks nice for the cougars.



As far as the SEC is concerned, there aren't enough ways to say how overrated that conference is. Don't get me wrong. They deserve their top ranking, they just don't deserve the demigod status the rankings give them. Anyone else see the multiple gifts Kansas State gave Auburn last week? If that's the number 5 team in the country, then BYU has NOTHING to fear from the SEC. They are beatable. Gotta respect Bama's win over Florida, but I think the shine will come off that win as Florida gets further exposed this season. And Utah's win in the Sugar bowl a few years back was not a fluke. BYU can play against this conference if given the chance.



So the bottom line is that whatever team BYU plays, they would probably stand a fighting chance, just based on similar competition in the ACC and PAC. The SEC evidence is practically nonexistent though.



BYU on the RISE



BYU was a pretty decent team last year. Which, all by itself, is a pretty amazing thing to consider if for no other reason than that it was led by a Sophomore RM who transferred schools and had to recondition and learn a new playbook--oh and recover from serious injury--just one year before. But don't forget that BYU also had a new play caller, a new o-line coach, and a new defensive coordinator.



When you realize what a work in progress that team was last year, the season they had was actually pretty impressive. Reminds me a lot of Sarkesian's 7-4, 1995 season which was easy to overlook after the drubbing by Air Force to start the year, but really set up a fantastic 1996 season.



BYU has yet to hit its stride. Some wonder if the last two games were the true character of this team, play just above your opponents incompetence, or if they are simply waiting to break out. The USU game will be a good measure. Even if the cougs have not measurably improved over last year, they should win it going away. If the struggle with a close battle then my argument here falls apart. What I expect, is that BYU should win by four or five touchdowns. Hopefully Bronco lets the horses run, so to speak. If so we'll see it: how much BYU has actually improved.



People overlook how much improvement the Houston game represented. The defense held an improved UH offense to HALF its score. Virginia? Yes costly penalties, but really? Putting up 40 points on a team that held the ball for TWICE as long as you. THAT IS IMPRESSIVE. Imagine what they could have done with 10 more minutes playing time!



Most important of all, here's what that game taught our opponents: you can't beat BYU with ball control. In the end, they'll still out score you with only 20 minutes of game-time touch. That will keep opposing offensive coordinators second-guessing themselves all season.



BYU will continue to improve and at its peak (think Cotton Bowl 1996, LV Bowl 2006, and 2009) will look unbeatable. THAT'S the team that will play come January. THAT is the team that deserves a shot at the NC game.



Taysom





You know you can say his name in the same low, calm, respectful tones that people use when they say the word "bacon" and it doesn't even sound funny. He's no joke and anyone who dismisses BYU on the national scene still can't bring themselves to dismiss this guy.



Back to 1996. Sark lost to University of Washington because he couldn't find receivers that day and he didn't have a strong enough running game to bail him out. What if BYU had won that game? What would it have taken for them to do so?



The answer plays for BYU each week nowadays. Taysom IS the strong-enough running game. Sure he isn't the passer that Sark was, but he still has the cast of characters around him that Sark had. These guys know how to run routes and catch passes and this O-line knows how to help him find a gap. It is a lethal combination. Most important of all, the guy at its heart has a killer instinct. I don't need to recall for you his final drag-the-opponent's-arm-out-of-his-socket touchdown run against Virginia for you to understand the evidence here (even though it was fun to do so!). You know THIS guy. He has the vision for winning. He knows how to get to that place.



Admittedly BYU has some serious challenges ahead of it. None greater that a hungry Boise State team surrounded by ravenous fans in Smurf world, but the answer here is Taysom. He will find a way to win.



It may not be worth worrying about I know, but the reality is all of this is actually within the realm of possibility, and even greater than a 10% probability of happening. When was the last time you could say that?



I seriously can't remember it.

Like I have said above. Our offense has thus far been unstoppable. The defense has potential to be very good but lost its way the last 2 weeks. If you doubt that the coaches are aware of what happened, just go to KSL and listen to the Coach Howell interview, he knows what went wrong and will fix it. This team is the best BYU team we have seen since, at least, 96. Enjoy it folks, it is going to be a fun ride this year. I do think that the ceiling is a new years day bowl, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell that they will get put into the playoff even if they are undefeated. The playoff was set up specifically to keep the non "power" 5 and BYU out of it.

frdbtr wrote:
Like I have said above. Our offense has thus far been unstoppable. The defense has potential to be very good but lost its way the last 2 weeks. If you doubt that the coaches are aware of what happened, just go to KSL and listen to the Coach Howell interview, he knows what went wrong and will fix it. This team is the best BYU team we have seen since, at least, 96. Enjoy it folks, it is going to be a fun ride this year. I do think that the ceiling is a new years day bowl, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell that they will get put into the playoff even if they are undefeated. The playoff was set up specifically to keep the non "power" 5 and BYU out of it.

If the SEC gets two bids like some are thinking not only will BYU and non power 5 teams be excluded but two of the power 5 conferences will be left out also.Just something to think about as we contemplate and discuss the Cougars chances

You have heard of Improbable possibilities, but have you considered a plausible impossibility? Maybe BYU making the playoff is somewhere In between the two. So optimism can run wild, I suppose, because we all know BYU making the playoff is highly improbable, like 1 or 2%?

But winning the NC is even more improbable and closer to impossible. I don't know which is more unlikely. But you have to be pretty blue goggled and manic to believe the first and quite frankly near out of touch with reality to believe a NC.



A few intriguing elements to that increase the chances from 1 to 2 or 3 percent chance:

Their is a force that is stronger this year larger than in past years, on the national scene and that is the media and even fan interest in some team, in some Cinderella, blowing up/intruding the Playoff. That national attention or shall we just call it fanciful intrigue and nothing more once reality calls, may fade quickly when the P5 Monopoly, sniffs BYU becoming even a remote threat.



But the greatest way of increasing BYUs chances has already been shown how volatile and fading it can be. It is a variable that is the key to all of this. And it is called, in past years, the QUEST FOR PERFECTION. we see how that year ended up. But if there were a year that all those stars could align, it is this year and BYU has already started to squander that chance. BYU lets up too easily. It takes its foot off the gas pedal to often and too soon. And if not the players, then certainly the "humanity" of Bronco not wanting style points, not wanting to make the other team and coach look bad, etc, etc-- these variables have not happened in the last two games, even when it could, and won't happen in the future.

BYU OFFENSE IS NOT "destroying" ITS OPPONENTS. It could but it isn't. The Oline played so tough in the first quarter vs UH and then decided to go on a coast-al vacation. And the D doesn't help. It's agressive, but undisciplined. TOO MANY FRICKEN PENALTIES, even though they have played tougher than the O.

It is nice to hear what coaches are saying after this bye week. They certainly are saying the "right things" relative to easing off, penalties, working hard, etc, etc. BUT MARK MY WORDS, if BYU doesn't actually and truthfully "destroy" USU, then BYU stays put in the polls and convinces the critics that BYU is not disciplined enough to go undefeated.

FSU without one of the best players in the country, JW, needed some luck and missed FGs by Clemson to win, but don't doubt for a minute that that Clemson D isn't one of the best, most NFL Talent laden team in the country AND FSU still won. BYU could hang for a half with a team like this but fade quickly in the second half. Sorry, I love our Cougs, but you are a deluded person to think this BYU team is ready to MAKE the playoff, alone COMPETE for a NC. The part that makes me frustrated, is that the potential is there, but as Bronco would say, he is not coaching to the level that he needs to pull all of this off. I love Bronco as well. He is and could achieve this year a big chunk of legendary status, but there are too many chinks in the armor of this team to go undefeated and with the style points they would need to be more than just a passing fancy in the playoff discussion.

NDCougar and Coug_rule, I thought this was a thread for optimists. If you have difficulties with being optimistic you can go to the Realists thread. I think BYU can go undefeated and see a NYD bowl :)

BYU matches up well with a lot of SEC teams imo. They are smash mouth and pro style. Those with elite lines would destroy us, but there are plenty that we could hang with. This team is good and they clearly have swagger and confidence. I still expect this team to get penalized like fools so we'll see if they can overcome that on the road @BSU, @UCF, and @Cal. Each of those teams will be just barely good enough to make us pay.



But I absolutely expect perfection at this point and I'm not afraid to say it. And I'll guarantee it if Brown and Kaufusi stay healthy. Missing those 2 players actually changes our whole identity on both sides of the ball. Then there's Kurtz. I don't know how good he is but the word is he's another Leslie +.

Kurtz could change things if he is another Leslie. Maybe with this break TH will see the light and focus on throwing. If he could make that leap that we have been talking about, this team would have a chance. If we had a Detmer with Hill legs we could win the NC.