M
MythranorHere's my thoughts on next years schedule.
Washington State is a likely win. Leach is a good offensive coach, but I don't expect his team to be playing at a significantly higher level. Leach's first year at Texas Tech he managed 7 wins compared to 6 the year before by the previous coach. So while there was an improvement I'm not sure you can say it was a significant one.
1999 Wins (Spike Dykes, HC): Louisiana Lafayette, Texas A&M, Colorado, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
Losses: Arizona State, North Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas
2000 Wins (First year under Mike Leach) New Mexico, Utah State, North Texas, Louisiana Lafayette, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State
Losses: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, East Carolina
It took 3 years before his team had a 9 win season. So while I expect we will see some improvement, I don't expect it to be a significant improvement from them this first year. Likely win (1-0)
Weber State: Win. No questions asked, just a win. (2-0)
Back to back road games at Utah and Boise State. I think we split these, win one and lose one. Chance of winning both probably less than 20%, chance of losing both, not much greater, we'll call it 30%. That leaves us a 50% chance of splitting the two. The Utes play us like we're the most important game of the year, and our team has yet to show that kind of emotion against their rivals. But this year we have Riley and I hope he wants to prove that he can beat our rivals. Boise State has Chris Peterson who, in my opinion, is one of the top 3 head coaches in college football. So I expect a well prepared team, and I expect trick plays which Bronco has struggled with at times. On the other hand, between last year and this year, they have lost about 75% of their 2-deep roster from what I can see. They are young and inexperienced, and might have some growing pains. Another toss up. (3-1)
Hawaii: Same game, different location, same result. I expect us to hold serve at home (4-1)
Utah State: It may be in Logan, but I think Riley wants to show why he should have started the game against them in Utah, picks up where he left off, and reestablishes BYU's supremacy in the rivalry (5-1)
Oregon State: Last two games we have played against them 82-48. Those games have been in Vegas and Oregon. I expect a relatively easy win. (6-1)
Second road trip, Notre Dame/Georgia Tech. I think we split this road series as well, and my bet is a loss to Notre Dame. Though they aren't elite, they are probably the most talented team we will face all year. Kelly showed he can do very good things with a team while at Cincinnati and I expect the Irish to be on the rise, but still beatable (chance of winning probably just under 50%, in the 40-45% range. Georgia Tech on the other hand I think is a likely win. Bronco has a knack for stopping the option (don't bring up 2010 Air Force, remember that was a Jamie Hill coached defense who it was reported, did not ask for Bronco's help in planning for the Falcons if I remember correctly. A quick search pulled up this thread: http://www.cougarcorner.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4901" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;). Georgia Tech does run a different option than Air Force but not by a significant amount. I expect Bronco to have his team ready for this game. After the second tough road trip we're 7-2
The season closes out with three easy blowout wins against low ranked WAC teams. Season ends 10-2 with a likely win against whatever MWC team we play in our bowl game. Another 11 win season for Bronco.
As for what to expect if we lose Riley. There are only three games I can see it making a significant difference for. Utah, Boise State and Georgia Tech (Notre Dame's already pegged as a likely loss). If we lose Riley early enough for it to effect the Utah game I expect us to be fine by Georgia Tech. So I would be surprised with less than 9 regular season wins with a bowl game win to cap off another 10-3 season.
Washington State is a likely win. Leach is a good offensive coach, but I don't expect his team to be playing at a significantly higher level. Leach's first year at Texas Tech he managed 7 wins compared to 6 the year before by the previous coach. So while there was an improvement I'm not sure you can say it was a significant one.
1999 Wins (Spike Dykes, HC): Louisiana Lafayette, Texas A&M, Colorado, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
Losses: Arizona State, North Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas
2000 Wins (First year under Mike Leach) New Mexico, Utah State, North Texas, Louisiana Lafayette, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State
Losses: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, East Carolina
It took 3 years before his team had a 9 win season. So while I expect we will see some improvement, I don't expect it to be a significant improvement from them this first year. Likely win (1-0)
Weber State: Win. No questions asked, just a win. (2-0)
Back to back road games at Utah and Boise State. I think we split these, win one and lose one. Chance of winning both probably less than 20%, chance of losing both, not much greater, we'll call it 30%. That leaves us a 50% chance of splitting the two. The Utes play us like we're the most important game of the year, and our team has yet to show that kind of emotion against their rivals. But this year we have Riley and I hope he wants to prove that he can beat our rivals. Boise State has Chris Peterson who, in my opinion, is one of the top 3 head coaches in college football. So I expect a well prepared team, and I expect trick plays which Bronco has struggled with at times. On the other hand, between last year and this year, they have lost about 75% of their 2-deep roster from what I can see. They are young and inexperienced, and might have some growing pains. Another toss up. (3-1)
Hawaii: Same game, different location, same result. I expect us to hold serve at home (4-1)
Utah State: It may be in Logan, but I think Riley wants to show why he should have started the game against them in Utah, picks up where he left off, and reestablishes BYU's supremacy in the rivalry (5-1)
Oregon State: Last two games we have played against them 82-48. Those games have been in Vegas and Oregon. I expect a relatively easy win. (6-1)
Second road trip, Notre Dame/Georgia Tech. I think we split this road series as well, and my bet is a loss to Notre Dame. Though they aren't elite, they are probably the most talented team we will face all year. Kelly showed he can do very good things with a team while at Cincinnati and I expect the Irish to be on the rise, but still beatable (chance of winning probably just under 50%, in the 40-45% range. Georgia Tech on the other hand I think is a likely win. Bronco has a knack for stopping the option (don't bring up 2010 Air Force, remember that was a Jamie Hill coached defense who it was reported, did not ask for Bronco's help in planning for the Falcons if I remember correctly. A quick search pulled up this thread: http://www.cougarcorner.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4901" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;). Georgia Tech does run a different option than Air Force but not by a significant amount. I expect Bronco to have his team ready for this game. After the second tough road trip we're 7-2
The season closes out with three easy blowout wins against low ranked WAC teams. Season ends 10-2 with a likely win against whatever MWC team we play in our bowl game. Another 11 win season for Bronco.
As for what to expect if we lose Riley. There are only three games I can see it making a significant difference for. Utah, Boise State and Georgia Tech (Notre Dame's already pegged as a likely loss). If we lose Riley early enough for it to effect the Utah game I expect us to be fine by Georgia Tech. So I would be surprised with less than 9 regular season wins with a bowl game win to cap off another 10-3 season.