Projected W-L Record for 2012

StatsCougar wrote:
win count # seasons win percent

0 0 0.00%

1 0 0.00%

2 0 0.00%

3 1 0.01%

4 10 0.10%

5 95 0.95%

6 456 4.56%

7 1187 11.87%

8 2324 23.24%

9 2829 28.29%

10 2096 20.96%

11 864 8.64%

12 138 1.38%



opponent percent

"Washington St" 65%

"Weber State" 95%

"@Utah" 50%

"@Boise State" 45%

"Hawaii" 75%

"Utah State" 70%

"Oregon State" 75%

"@Notre Dame" 60%

"@Georgia Tech" 55%

"Idaho" 99%

"@San Jose State" 95%

"@New Mexico State" 95%



Here is a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons, with the precents I think we will win each game. At this point, a 9 win season is most probable. Winning 8-10 games is about 72%. Thoughts?

Your % are too optimistic. We have less than 50% chance in South Bend. Maybe much less. GA Tech same story. A few others are a little optimistic, but these two are way optimistic.



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Why do we have a much less chance than 50%. Please show your stats.

hawkwing wrote:
Why do we have a much less chance than 50%. Please show your stats.

NO facts on tis one - just an opinion. And to be precise, I said less than 50%, maybe much less - NOTe the word "Maybe". When we have some facts after fall camp re who is and is not healthy or beter yet, when we get to the week before the game and we find out if Riley is healthy or we are starting an inexperienced QB, I will nail that down with more precision. That is where maybe comes in. we are not as deep as I would like to be and an iinjury to Riley will be problematic until #2 gets some PT. With the early schedule - not going to be much PT for back-up QB except Weber State. SO maybe. I am sure there are some maybe issues on the ND side as well.



First of all. BYU has won in South Bend before and with a team that was not elite. Might have been John Walsh iirc. So it could happen. ND does lose at home on occasion. It could happen. RIght now, objective third parties would have ND favored in this game at their place. BYU struggles against good defenses. ND just might have one of those. IDK. They always recruit well. They usually underachieve relative to that. Schedule is a big part of the reason. That is why I give BYU a shot at all.



So just take BYU's average w/L % for road games at decent BCS teams and go with that % for now or take ND's % at home vs decent non-BCS teams and go with that. We will end up <50%. If Riley Nelson is injured when we play them - we will be at much less than 50%.



There - I spelled it out - best I can without facts. Now if anyone thinks they have facts about this game to dispel this opinion - let's hear them - but keep in mind -



Stuff Happens

Things Change

Even Facts



And it is a long time until kick-off



Hawk - I know you like to go contrarian to everything I post lately - and if it is fun for you - that is why we are here - to entertain each other - but I think a better question would be to ask the OP to justify why BYU has a better than 50% chance of winning this one and the back-to-back road trip to GT as well. Have you guys ever heard of Jet Lag? Do you ever get out of Provo? Fly over to see me in Hawaii an dif you hav enot figured out by then how traveling a time zone or two can affect your game legs, I will explain why you feel so beat when you get here and why that feeling does not go away for a few days. Then strap on your helmet and give it 110% for the alma mater - jet lagged.



If you have folowed my posts - for several years - that is why I think itis absolutely stupid to give 2 for 1 gigs and set ourselves up for failure playing with jet lag on the other guys field or an un-neutral field.



It worked out OK with Okie - but they were down. And it barely worked even after knocking out their QB. Texas was down too, but it still did not work out. Ole Miss worked out - but to quote Blue is better - they were horrible - simply horrible. It did not work out at TCU even though this was an off year for them. So - if ND is horrible, simply horrible - maybe we nudge them by 1 point like Ole Miss. If they are down - maybe we nudge them by 1 like Okie. If they are down like texas - maybe we get a morale victory but lose by 1. If they are a little off - like TCU - maybe we get spanked good.



I would say Ole Miss is not a good comparison, but Okie, texas, and TCU in their off seasons - are



Give it 33% chance for victory - double that if a moral victory counts.



.

Ummm.... 10 wins. Duh!



:lol:

hawkwing wrote:
Why do we have a much less chance than 50%. Please show your stats.

Actually, we have a 50% chance to win every game. Since every game will only have one of two outcomes either we win (50%) or we lose (50%).

This isn't the same team that played a terrible Ole Miss and squeaked out a win.



Also, Notre Dame is not a very good team. Have you seen their win loss records for the last several years?



Now Bibster, I know you feel it's your job to be "the realistic" CougarCorner poster and try to even out everyone elses optimism with inflated pessimism, err "realism", but it's just been coming across as Gordon Monsony.



But hey, maybe you're right, no one on this site or on the football team has probably ever traveled past a time zone since we're all a bunch of Utah yokels so we just have no idea about this jet lag thing. At least we know for sure BYU could never travel to Hawaii and win, our game legs would be too weak!

hawkwing wrote:
This isn't the same team that played a terrible Ole Miss and squeaked out a win.



Also, Notre Dame is not a very good team. Have you seen their win loss records for the last several years?



Now Bibster, I know you feel it's your job to be "the realistic" CougarCorner poster and try to even out everyone elses optimism with inflated pessimism, err "realism", but it's just been coming across as Gordon Monsony.



But hey, maybe you're right, no one on this site or on the football team has probably ever traveled past a time zone since we're all a bunch of Utah yokels so we just have no idea about this jet lag thing. At least we know for sure BYU could never travel to Hawaii and win, our game legs would be too weak!

I'm buying less and less into the jet lag/time zone theory being that big of a factor. The team takes a chartered jet to the games. The majority of nation is within a five hour flight. I don't believe it makes a difference if its a three hour flight or a five hour flight. As long as they fly in a minimum of a day before the game the team should be fine to play after having a full night sleep. The time zone may become a factor if you are heading east two time zones and then have an early morning start time, but for an afternoon start time it shouldn't matter.



NBA teams that have to fly cross country and they don't arrive until 3 am the day of the game may have more of an excuse for jet lag.

Wickchad84087 wrote:

This isn't the same team that played a terrible Ole Miss and squeaked out a win.



Also, Notre Dame is not a very good team. Have you seen their win loss records for the last several years?



Now Bibster, I know you feel it's your job to be "the realistic" CougarCorner poster and try to even out everyone elses optimism with inflated pessimism, err "realism", but it's just been coming across as Gordon Monsony.



But hey, maybe you're right, no one on this site or on the football team has probably ever traveled past a time zone since we're all a bunch of Utah yokels so we just have no idea about this jet lag thing. At least we know for sure BYU could never travel to Hawaii and win, our game legs would be too weak!

I'm buying less and less into the jet lag/time zone theory being that big of a factor. The team takes a chartered jet to the games. The majority of nation is within a five hour flight. I don't believe it makes a difference if its a three hour flight or a five hour flight. As long as they fly in a minimum of a day before the game the team should be fine to play after having a full night sleep. The time zone may become a factor if you are heading east two time zones and then have an early morning start time, but for an afternoon start time it shouldn't matter.



NBA teams that have to fly cross country and they don't arrive until 3 am the day of the game may have more of an excuse for jet lag.

As someone who flies to the East Coast for work every few months (shh! don't tell Bib!) I have never had problems with Jet Lag. Now, I understand some people are more susceptible to it than others, but these are highly tuned athletes with trainers who keep them to a schedule to maximize their potential. Plus, we have pickle juice.

hawkwing wrote:
This isn't the same team that played a terrible Ole Miss and squeaked out a win.



Also, Notre Dame is not a very good team. Have you seen their win loss records for the last several years?



Now Bibster, I know you feel it's your job to be "the realistic" CougarCorner poster and try to even out everyone elses optimism with inflated pessimism, err "realism", but it's just been coming across as Gordon Monsony.



But hey, maybe you're right, no one on this site or on the football team has probably ever traveled past a time zone since we're all a bunch of Utah yokels so we just have no idea about this jet lag thing. At least we know for sure BYU could never travel to Hawaii and win, our game legs would be too weak!

Let me help you. You would think I earned some respect as a realistic prognosticator of BYU games for the regular season last year. Just Sayin. Then I waxed a little optimistic, on that Bowl Game, and dropped to 2nd place on your prognosticator game. Note that I predicted a solid BYU win at Hawaii last year - jet lag or no jet lag. Hawaii is not ND. And yes this is not the same team that struggled vs Ole Miss. It is not the same on that struggled vs Tulsa either or that got whooped by TCU, Utah, and Texas. It is still undefeated - so people like you last year - yes Hawk YOU, can slip on your Happy Valley, Blue clouded goggles, and assume that they are better than they turn out to be. Have you noticed the pattern. Certainly the last two years - I lost track of whether you were one of the ones that predicted a NC chase in 2009. And - sorry - there is a big world outside of Provo - those that live outside of Provo, will have a different perspective - possibly more balanced - possibly more realistic - possibly lest skewed by hatred of local and regional rivals, etc. And maybe not. You continue to seem to want to chase any realism or pessimism right off this site.



I got bit twice in the prognostication game. I decided to play the Cougar Corner unwritten rule and never predict a BYU loss for example. Even when I was certain one was coming to a jet-lagged team playing on an un-neutral field at TCU. Those five points, lost to the eventual winner who picked TCU in that game would have offset the 2 or 3 point difference created when I waxed optimistic and predicted a BYU blowout vs Tulsa. I got beat by the one guy more realistic than me. Call it pessimism if you want Hawk. Continue to bring out your Pom Poms and assume the very best. And whatever you do - do not present a balanced and realistic perspective.



Now back to ND - who you described as a bad team. Compared to whom Hawk? Yes - we had a slightly better record vs vastly inferior competition last year. We won't mention our 2010 team. Bottom line since you like stats and since ND is a bad team.



Pick the last 5 or 10 similarly bad teams that BYU traveled a similar distance to play and you tell us what our winning % was. List the teams Hawk. Be prepared to defend that list. I do not expect to see WAC, MWC other than TCU, PAC unless they were upper half, or Big 12 unless above .500 on that list.



But sure Hawk. Assume that BYU will be improved from last year, assume that ND will be worse, and for sure assume that no injury happens to Nelson. Ignore the past.



And maybe you could put your % indicators out there on a post, sticky it, we can all add ours, with a prediction of regular season W/L based on those same % and we can all be accountable for what comes out of our mouths and keyboards.



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Cougarbib2 wrote:



Your % are too optimistic. We have less than 50% chance in South Bend. Maybe much less. GA Tech same story. A few others are a little optimistic, but these two are way optimistic.



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I'm happy to rerun this with different %'s. But in looking at last year, ND as a horrible offense, and has a new OC. GT runs the option and I think the BM understands how to stop it and it is not like we haven't played Air Force for past 30 years or so. I know this is early and things will change.

Cougarbib2 wrote:

This isn't the same team that played a terrible Ole Miss and squeaked out a win.



Also, Notre Dame is not a very good team. Have you seen their win loss records for the last several years?



Now Bibster, I know you feel it's your job to be "the realistic" CougarCorner poster and try to even out everyone elses optimism with inflated pessimism, err "realism", but it's just been coming across as Gordon Monsony.



But hey, maybe you're right, no one on this site or on the football team has probably ever traveled past a time zone since we're all a bunch of Utah yokels so we just have no idea about this jet lag thing. At least we know for sure BYU could never travel to Hawaii and win, our game legs would be too weak!

Let me help you. You would think I earned some respect as a realistic prognosticator of BYU games for the regular season last year. Just Sayin. Then I waxed a little optimistic, on that Bowl Game, and dropped to 2nd place on your prognosticator game. Note that I predicted a solid BYU win at Hawaii last year - jet lag or no jet lag. Hawaii is not ND. And yes this is not the same team that struggled vs Ole Miss. It is not the same on that struggled vs Tulsa either or that got whooped by TCU, Utah, and Texas. It is still undefeated - so people like you last year - yes Hawk YOU, can slip on your Happy Valley, Blue clouded goggles, and assume that they are better than they turn out to be. Have you noticed the pattern. Certainly the last two years - I lost track of whether you were one of the ones that predicted a NC chase in 2009. And - sorry - there is a big world outside of Provo - those that live outside of Provo, will have a different perspective - possibly more balanced - possibly more realistic - possibly lest skewed by hatred of local and regional rivals, etc. And maybe not. You continue to seem to want to chase any realism or pessimism right off this site.



I got bit twice in the prognostication game. I decided to play the Cougar Corner unwritten rule and never predict a BYU loss for example. Even when I was certain one was coming to a jet-lagged team playing on an un-neutral field at TCU. Those five points, lost to the eventual winner who picked TCU in that game would have offset the 2 or 3 point difference created when I waxed optimistic and predicted a BYU blowout vs Tulsa. I got beat by the one guy more realistic than me. Call it pessimism if you want Hawk. Continue to bring out your Pom Poms and assume the very best. And whatever you do - do not present a balanced and realistic perspective.



Now back to ND - who you described as a bad team. Compared to whom Hawk? Yes - we had a slightly better record vs vastly inferior competition last year. We won't mention our 2010 team. Bottom line since you like stats and since ND is a bad team.



Pick the last 5 or 10 similarly bad teams that BYU traveled a similar distance to play and you tell us what our winning % was. List the teams Hawk. Be prepared to defend that list. I do not expect to see WAC, MWC other than TCU, PAC unless they were upper half, or Big 12 unless above .500 on that list.



But sure Hawk. Assume that BYU will be improved from last year, assume that ND will be worse, and for sure assume that no injury happens to Nelson. Ignore the past.



And maybe you could put your % indicators out there on a post, sticky it, we can all add ours, with a prediction of regular season W/L based on those same % and we can all be accountable for what comes out of our mouths and keyboards.



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So I am an unrealistic fan, because I live in Utah. I lack the worldly experience that someone gets simply by not living in Utah? Oh that Utah bubble which non-Utahns are so able to clearly see has certainly clouded my vision of what the BYU Cougars are capable of. If only I could live in Hawaii where the layout of college football is so much more clear. Then I would be able to tell that even a terrible Cougar team who had no faith or trust in one another got whupped when they lost to Texas in a blowout of 1 point. But of course, beating Ole Miss by the same score was a fluke.



Of course, it's easier to dismiss my point of view by assuming that I'm a Utah-bubbled, blue-goggled yokel (because I must have predicted we'd compete for the national championship every single year) rather than admit that you were wrong and saying that we may have a much smaller than 50% chance of beating Notre Dame (note that I have never had a problem with you saying that it may have been a 50% chance, just the much less than 50% addition). But it appears your bias against those of us Cougar fans who actually live in Utah is just too much to over come.



Lets see what your % to beat each team on the schedule is?

I don't live in Utah and think we will have a very tough game at ND. I would put our odds at less than 50%. Sagrain last year had us both very close (around 33 for each) and we will be on the road. ND is very inconsistent but capable of beating almost anyone. Kelly is a good coach but it is taking time to make improvements. If they could develop a QB they would be tough. They are not a bad team.

ND has struggled when they have QB issues. Check their record the last couple of years. 2012 year is no different. While they have a good front DL line, they have lost all of their starters in the secondary. If we have a chance to beat them, this is the year to do so.



BSU has lost their 4-year starter in Kelln Moore, their starting RB, and several O and D linemen. They are susceptible as they are inexperienced. Anyone thinking WSU is going to beat us with a new coach(es) and players is up in the night. Leach is a good coach but defense is not his forte and Bronco has proven he can win opening games let alone a game at home.



The two real challenges IMO are Utah who seems to get up for us like no other team and playing GT right after ND game.



Utah should be close as they have lost an OC and OL coach and have some questionable QB issues. Our coaches all return and we have the Riley factor - which means we have a chance in any game if the rest of the team steps up to the plate.



GT game is ours if we can shut down their running attack which seems to be our strength on D and plus the fact that we have played a similar scheme against AF and are familiar with this type of attack.



In summary, I think that 2012 will be special unless we suffer the injury bug and suffer a similar fate at OU did the year we beat them in Cowboys stadium.

From Blood Runs Blue:



http://www.bloodrunsblue.com/2012/02/14/two-kind-of-byu-fans/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Half Empty: Bibster, Lingo

Half Full: the rest of us on CC

We have experience playing the option of Air Force in our coaches but not the players. It will be 2 years since we played them so there is a small percentage of our D who played against them.

My very early look at the schedule is I see pretty much six gaurunteed victories:

- vs Weber St

- vs Hawaii

- vs Utah St

- vs Idaho

- at San Jose St

- at New Mexico St



I see five toss up games, that could go either way:

- vs Washington St

- at Utah

- vs Oregon St

- at Notre Dame

- at Georgia Tech



I see one game that I don't think we win, but I'm not ready to call it a gaurunteed loss:

- at Boise St



Much like last year, I think every game is winnable. I don't see any gaurunteed losses. I think BYU can win those six games in group one. 6-0.



I think BYU probably goes 4-1 at best in the group two games, and probably 1-4 at worst. Record hovers between 7-4 and 10-1.



Group three is probably a loss. Record is now between 7-5 and 10-2. Using my grading system, a 7-5 season would be a barely passing grade. Seven wins would equal a "D" and essentially an unacceptable season to me.



The minimum number of victories I will accept is eight. Going 8-4 would earn the team a "C" and the season would still be relatively disappointing.



9-3 and the team gets a "B." A 10-2 regular season would be an "A."



The Utah game and bowl games represent a half grade in each direction. So if BYU goes 9-4 it would like be a B+ season.

hawkwing wrote:

sorry - there is a big world outside of Provo - those that live outside of Provo, will have a different perspective - possibly more balanced - possibly more realistic - possibly lest skewed... You continue to seem to want to chase any realism or pessimism right off this site... Call it pessimism if you want Hawk. Continue to bring out your Pom Poms and assume the very best. And whatever you do - do not present a balanced and realistic perspective.

So I am an unrealistic fan, because I live in Utah. I lack the worldly experience that someone gets simply by not living in Utah? Oh that Utah bubble which non-Utahns are so able to clearly see has certainly clouded my vision of what the BYU Cougars are capable of. If only I could live in Hawaii where the layout of college football is so much more clear. Then I would be able to tell that even a terrible Cougar team who had no faith or trust in one another got whupped when they lost to Texas in a blowout of 1 point... Of course, it's easier to dismiss my point of view by assuming that I'm a Utah-bubbled, blue-goggled yokel (because I must have predicted we'd compete for the national championship every single year) rather than admit that you were wrong... But it appears your bias against those of us Cougar fans who actually live in Utah is just too much to over come.

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StatsCougar wrote:

Your % are too optimistic. We have less than 50% chance in South Bend. Maybe much less. GA Tech same story. A few others are a little optimistic, but these two are way optimistic.



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I'm happy to rerun this with different %'s. But in looking at last year, ND as a horrible offense, and has a new OC. GT runs the option and I think the BM understands how to stop it and it is not like we haven't played Air Force for past 30 years or so. I know this is early and things will change.

And just for fun - how did you like how Bronco handled AirForce last time we played them at their place less than 500 miles from home. And GT > AFA most years.



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Mars wrote:

Cougarbib2 wrote:
sorry - there is a big world outside of Provo - those that live outside of Provo, will have a different perspective - possibly more balanced - possibly more realistic - possibly lest skewed... You continue to seem to want to chase any realism or pessimism right off this site... Call it pessimism if you want Hawk. Continue to bring out your Pom Poms and assume the very best. And whatever you do - do not present a balanced and realistic perspective.

So I am an unrealistic fan, because I live in Utah. I lack the worldly experience that someone gets simply by not living in Utah? Oh that Utah bubble which non-Utahns are so able to clearly see has certainly clouded my vision of what the BYU Cougars are capable of. If only I could live in Hawaii where the layout of college football is so much more clear. Then I would be able to tell that even a terrible Cougar team who had no faith or trust in one another got whupped when they lost to Texas in a blowout of 1 point... Of course, it's easier to dismiss my point of view by assuming that I'm a Utah-bubbled, blue-goggled yokel (because I must have predicted we'd compete for the national championship every single year) rather than admit that you were wrong... But it appears your bias against those of us Cougar fans who actually live in Utah is just too much to over come.

http://a6.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/407303_320027058044277_100001109557673_898310_597495023_n.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

BTW Mars. The maybe much less than 50% part, as explained clearly in an earlier post in this thread - is if Riley gets injured. Which, based on history, has happened two years in a row. It is not inconceivable that Riley could be injured when we play ND.



What do you think our odds in South Bend are if Riley goes down in the first quarter? Just askin.



BTW. I am from Utah. I have lived in three different counties in California. I have lived in two different counties in Illinois. I now live in Hawaii. I travelled weekly for a year to Philadelphia. I have been to over 40 of the 50 states. My perspective did change as I got exposed to other parts of the country.



How did you do in the CC Prediction game - a pretty good reality check?



For those that like facts - post ND schedule and results as far back as you want to go and as yourself, realistically how BYU would have fared that year vs that schedule weekly grind.



ND is not an elite team lately. Far from bad. Pretty decent, actually. Next year - probably about the same.



So if they beat us - I guess we will no longer be able to say we beat the teams we are supposed to beat but lose to the good ones - since ND is, according to you and Hawk, a bad team.



This isn't about where you and Hawk live. IDC. This is about you finding a nationally respected publication that says ND is a bad team.



I agree they are over-rated by many. They are not a bad team, however. Would have beaten us in South Bend 6-7 times out of 10 last year. Bring em to Provo - I like our chances much better.



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