Projected W-L Record for 2012

Sept. 1 - Washington State (W)

Sept. 8 - Weber State (W)

Sept. 15 - at Utah (W) - revenge factor; QB concern

Sept. 22 - at Boise State (L) - reputation; lost twice 2003-2004

Sept. 29 - Hawai'i (W)

Oct. 5 - Utah State (W)

Oct. 13 - Oregon State (W)

Oct. 20 - at Notre Dame (W) - QB issues - lost 4 starters in secondary

Oct. 27 - at Georgia Tech (L) - tough follow-up road trip; Triple option, strong D

Nov. 3 - BYE

Nov. 10 - Idaho (W)

Nov. 17 - at San Jose State (W)

Nov. 24 - at New Mexico State (W)



Regular Season Record 11-2

Bowl Game (Poinsetta vs MWC) - W

My bad on the math - projected final record is 11-2.

I'm not giving a hard answer, but I will offer a few thoughts.



1. At first glance, this is a tough schedule. Six teams that are either in BCS conferences, get special BCS consideration, or are called Boise State. USU is trending upward, and I suspect Hawaii should be a decent team. I don't think expecting a business-as-usual 10 or 11 win season is realistic. You either believe that BYU has a special team heading into 2012, or you believe that 2012 is a 8-9 win season.



2. On the other hand, I think 2011 already proved how unpredictable independent schedules can be. I did not expect UCF, Oregon State or Ole Miss to be as bad as they were last year. Plus, there's the unfamiliarity factor. I know NOTHING about GT next year. Truth be told, I know little about GT, period, other than "ACC team that runs the option."

Dcr36 wrote:
Plus, there's the unfamiliarity factor. I know NOTHING about GT next year. Truth be told, I know little about GT, period, other than "ACC team that runs the option."

I think Tom Holmoe or Fowler on True Blue said it best about GT in that their head coach, Paul Johnson he spent 5 years at Navy, before coming to GT in 2008. He was 11-1 vs. the military academies. He beat ND for the first time while there since 1963. He runs an incredible option offense. They should have beaten the Pukes in the Sun Bowl, but the SNOT got lucky and had about a month to get ready for the option. We'll be playing them after coming off of a game on Saturday in South Bend.

From a historical perspective, when we have a senior laden team and a number of returning starters, we tend to have a good record. For this reason, I believe that we should have a much better record.



Returning Starters (17):

Offense - 8

Defense - 7

ST - 2 (P, K)



Starting seniors:

(Defense): DL: Fuga, Manumaleuna, Tialavea; LB: Ogletree, Kaveinga; DBs: Hadley, Sampson,

Offense: OL: Brown, Hansen; QB: Nelson



Returning starters (underclassmen):

(Defense): KVN, Sorensen;

(Offense): Reynolds, Apo, Hoffman, Falslev, Holt, Wilson, Matthews

Probably should also include Alisa and Juice as they did rotate in-out and were a part of the offensive scheme.

If you remember, last I ran a simulation of the season 10000 times and predicted correctly that we would win 9 games. If it is possible, I would like to to that again, but with a twist. I would like to get everyone's prediction on what chances we have in each game. (45% winning at utah, 95% against Weber State, etc.) Is thre interest in going this? If there is, any ideas on the best way to do this, and when (now, after spring pratice, before fall camp, durning fall camp etc.)?

byucougar1 wrote:
Probably should also include Alisa and Juice as they did rotate in-out and were a part of the offensive scheme.

Probably should consider fullback is a question on offense and RB will be a rebuild or at least a major reload. TE is a question mark as well. We also have a ? or two at OL. Then consider the shortage of offensive players who will enter the NFL draft after this season - none unless Hoffman has a monster season and goes early.



Defense is a similar story. Counting a senior that just had a two-year maturation sabattical - well he may be rusty. Maybe Van Noy has an NFL ready season. Anyone else? This team is solid. Not elite. Not deep.



No doubt some of those questions will get answered. Some may not. One-deep will be pretty good. We have less depth to absorb injuries than we need. Consider QB.





It is difficult for me to imagine losing more than 5 games in 2012, but it is not difficult to imagine losing 5. 9-4 would be a solid, and probably according to experts, an expected result, at best for this team and this schedule.



13-0 is highly unlikely - not impossible and we are still undefeated.

12-1 is nearly as unlikely.

11-2 is a long-shot but thereis a prayer.

10-3 is possible, but not probable.

9-4 is possible and almost probable.

8-5 is what the national experts will predict.



I will wax optimistic and project 8-5 or better.

EM_Puma wrote:
He was 11-1 vs. the military academies.

Well, he's 0-1 vs. the service academies at GT. ;)



But I really don't know anything about ACC football. I think it's telling that up until 45 minutes ago I thought GT's coach was Frank Beamer. I don't have a whole lot of respect for them as a conference, but they have a ridiculous track record against BYU for some reason.

Wazzou might be the biggest trap game any team faces on opening day. That game could be ugly for BYU.

snoscythe wrote:
Wazzou might be the biggest trap game any team faces on opening day. That game could be ugly for BYU.

This. Never know what to expect with a new coach who independent evaluators list as one of the top hires this year. Also, when you play 6 BCS teams, you are playing six games where you could easily lose if you are a little off that week or they just rise up on that particular week.



OSU was rebuilding last year. Maybe again. They have a decent coach. Maybe they filled some holes with JC recruits. IDK.



But yes - WSU Cougars are probably out of the PAC cellar again and still rising.



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I am going to predict 8-4 with a bowl win getting us to 9 wins. That would be a succesul season for byu.



I think with the talent to do better but the coaches are incapable of more than that. I expect to win most of the below average teams and lose to the above average teams with a chance of beating the above average teams at home.



I think we beat the cupcakes and then lose at least four of the following: washington state, oregon state, utah, bsu, notre dame, and goergia tech. And the Utah State game concerns me as well believe it or not.



I hope for some unusual chemistry or transition that results in a special year but I will not expect it. I think we know about where our team will go with the coaches we have. we will have a succesful season and win a good number of games, more than most teams do but we will not play in a bcs bowl game or win more than 10 games.



i would be surprised if we got to 10 wins again this season.



if we lose to utah again it will be hard for a lot of byu fans to care how many wins we have. not having a conference championship to play for and not having a shot at a bcs bowl makes that game become more important to byu fans than any other game, which is pathetic.

jonnylingo wrote:
I am going to predict 8-5 with 9-4 as a good season. I think with the talent we have we could do better but i do not expect that to happen. I expect to win most of the below average teams and lose to the above average teams with a chance of beating hte above average teams we play at home.



I think we beat the cupcakes and then lose at least four of the following: washington state, oregon state, utah, bsu, notre dame, and goergia tech.



I hope for some unusual chemistry or transition that results in a special year but I will not expect it.



i will be surprised if we get to 10 wins again this season.



if we lose to utah again it will be hard for a lot of byu fans to care how many wins we have. not having a conference championship to play for and not having a shot at a bcs bowl makes that

game become more important to byu fans than any other game, which is pathetic.

IDK - tough call. If you could sell your soul to the Devil when he came to you and said BYU will lose to ND, BSU, GA Tech, and Utah unless you sell me your soul for just 1 guaranteed win - I think some may opt to win that game in South Bend. A few may opt to win in Boise. Some will pick Utah. IDK if anyone will pick Tech given the other choices.



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win count # seasons win percent

0 0 0.00%

1 0 0.00%

2 0 0.00%

3 1 0.01%

4 10 0.10%

5 95 0.95%

6 456 4.56%

7 1187 11.87%

8 2324 23.24%

9 2829 28.29%

10 2096 20.96%

11 864 8.64%

12 138 1.38%



opponent percent

"Washington St" 65%

"Weber State" 95%

"@Utah" 50%

"@Boise State" 45%

"Hawaii" 75%

"Utah State" 70%

"Oregon State" 75%

"@Notre Dame" 60%

"@Georgia Tech" 55%

"Idaho" 99%

"@San Jose State" 95%

"@New Mexico State" 95%



Here is a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons, with the precents I think we will win each game. At this point, a 9 win season is most probable. Winning 8-10 games is about 72%. Thoughts?

Cougarbib2 wrote:

I am going to predict 8-5 with 9-4 as a good season. I think with the talent we have we could do better but i do not expect that to happen. I expect to win most of the below average teams and lose to the above average teams with a chance of beating hte above average teams we play at home.



I think we beat the cupcakes and then lose at least four of the following: washington state, oregon state, utah, bsu, notre dame, and goergia tech.



I hope for some unusual chemistry or transition that results in a special year but I will not expect it.



i will be surprised if we get to 10 wins again this season.



if we lose to utah again it will be hard for a lot of byu fans to care how many wins we have. not having a conference championship to play for and not having a shot at a bcs bowl makes that

game become more important to byu fans than any other game, which is pathetic.

IDK - tough call. If you could sell your soul to the Devil when he came to you and said BYU will lose to ND, BSU, GA Tech, and Utah unless you sell me your soul for just 1 guaranteed win - I think some may opt to win that game in South Bend. A few may opt to win in Boise. Some will pick Utah. IDK if anyone will pick Tech given the other choices.



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I would like to know who on this board would not pick utah in your scenario. What meaning do any of the other games have? They mean more with every game that byu goes undefeated. they would also mean more if they were undefeated when we played them. but assuming each team is where they usually are, i think the vast majority would pick utah.



i just don't like independence. I like being in a conference better. It gives more meaning to the season. I mean we play these teams and they don't really care much if they win because it doesn't affect their conference standings. And what do we can beyond simply we like to win. With this schedule we are going bowling and we already know where as well. utah is our rival so that game ends up mattering the most.

I think we either win 8 or 11 this year, and it all comes down to the road games for us. I suspect that we will win all of our home games for 2012. Only game that I wonder about is Wazzou, but only because they have a new coach and scheme, and a decent QB to run it. Otherwise, we run the table at LES.



To me, it really hinges on the Utah game this year, because it is such an emotional game for us. We got crushed last year, so we need to perform this year, and if we do, we get a big bump from it. Beat Utah, and I like our chances in Boise--a lot. Beat Utah in SLC, and I think we have a shot in every game this year on the road. Not saying we will win them, just that we could.



Lose to Utah and we win 8. Beat Utah and we win 11. Then the Bowl game.

I would pick ND. Normally, I would pick BSU next, but two losses in a row, beat down, in-state recruiting, PAC Envy, possible last game for a while, etc., I pick Utah even though I think they will be off a bit this year and less of a quality win. I am biased, since I do not hate Utah. So I agree that a lot of people will pick the Utah choice.



But some of the fans that wanted to play ND so bad that they didn't even mind giving 2 for 1 to get a shot will want to steal one at their place. Plunking Manti Teo may factor in too.



But hey - Utah, ND, BSU, Ga Tech - four great games no matter how you sort them. OSU, WSU, USU - certainly interesting games to watch. Hawaii in Provo - may be fun to whoop them up big for recruiting purposes. 8 games I am happy to see. The other 4 - call that BCS BS Beauty Contest necessitated scheduling. Everybody does it. Go take a look at the 3 or 4 crap games at home on every SEC schedule.



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11-2 with losses to GT and Washington St. I'm not worried about boise st being they are replacing everyone,i'm sure they will still be good, I am just confident we beat them. ND is a toss up but I feel like we should be able to pull it out. I think Wash St will beat us because we are terrible at the beginning of the year and they have the potential to be a pretty dang decent passing offense, GT just because the option is a pain and they have athletes.

kfilly20 wrote:
11-2 with losses to GT and Washington St. I'm not worried about boise st being they are replacing everyone,i'm sure they will still be good, I am just confident we beat them. .

This is how i felt about TCU last year. I will not fall in that trap again.

kfilly20 wrote:
I think Wash St will beat us because we are terrible at the beginning of the year

Not terrible in week 1. BYU has won the last 5 openers under Bronco. Ole Miss, UW, OU, NIU, Arizona. I think we take Wazou at home in 2012. I am more worried about later games at ND and GT should we be beat up, especially at QB. Otherwise, I like our chances in every game this year. We will be deep and talented.