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Dcr36Hey, I know I've been clogging up Cougarcorner with some longer posts these days. Sorry 'bout that. I've been sidelined from my daily schedule dealing w/ "family issues," so BYU football and this board have been good company while things slowly go back to normal. I don't think this type of compulsive researching/posting can or will keep up for much longer, so if I'm annoying the crap out of you, it should pass soon. ;)
A lot has been made about Heaps' throws vs. Riley's throws. I've been mostly arguing in favor of Riley, but I see Heaps' supporters' point of view - even with a sub-100 PER, he still shows little glimmers of being a great quarterback and doing things Riley Nelson probably can't do. A few posters (I'm looking at you, BYUROCKS, but not scornfully) argued that Heaps' poor performance is more attributable to the offense in general. Others have blamed the receiving corps, the running game, or Doman.
In an attempt to better understand Heaps' shortcomings, as well as examine whether Riley's performance owed more to luck than skill, I thought I'd watch the game and break down each throw. I didn't think it'd take more than 30 minutes, and it ended up taking about 3 hours spread over 2 days. :blush:
Anyways, if you're curious, I've provided the fruits of my labors, with screen-captures of most of the passes. I apologize for the grainy quality; cheap apartments mean that ESPN3 comes in at pretty low-resolution. Each throw is timestamped based on ESPN's broadcast running time if you want to follow along (I don't know why you would).
JAKE HEAPS
10:00(ish) - Play action long ball intended for Ross Apo. Incomplete, holding called on Utah State. It's difficult to determine quality/accuracy of the throw based on PI. The throw looked good but fell several yards ahead of Apo, which is concerning: while there was definitely contact from Utah State, it didn't seem to slow Apo up that much.
0/1, one overthrow (note that stats won't line up with official stats, as I'm counting called back plays)
10:45 -

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Another deep ball thrown to Apo, once again overthrown. Fans booed, at the time I wasn't not sure if they were contesting contact (coverage was tight) or if they were just booing Heaps.
0/2, two overthrows
12:45 -

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Well-thrown pass finds JJ Di Luigi going over the middle (a welcome change from UCF's sideline-mania) about 3 yards out from the line of scrimmage. Di Luigi manages to add decent yards after catch for a gain of 21.
1/3, two overthrows
19:58 -

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Heaps throws ball to nobody in particular, dropped by Utah State defender.
Should have been intercepted. Last year, I consistently told myself that the silver lining to Heaps' "bullet balls" is that if our WRs couldn't hold onto them, then CBs and safeties probably couldn't either. Probably still holds true.
1/4, two overthrows, one off-target
5 20:45 -
Heaps throws ball to Apo, wedged between two Aggies. Ball is off: too high and too far left. Apo jumps for it; Aggie jumps into Apo and is ejected from game.

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I don't want to say that what happened to Apo is Heaps' fault. Taking hits is always a risk with inside slant, over the middle routes. And obviously, the Aggie proactively jumped into Apo, making matters worse. However, Apo was jumping into the Aggie as well in an effort to grab the ball. Additionally, this is the second week in a row where Apo's taken serious abuse going for a tough catch over center.
1/5, two overthrows, two off-targets
23:08 -
End zone toss incomplete, Faslev was the target. Overthrown.

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1/6, three overthrows, two off-targets
24:28 -
End zone toss goes over the head of a leaping Di Luigi. Would've appreciated a replay or a different angle than the one ESPN provided. From ESPN's vantage point, I'm not sure the ball descended to a catch-able altitude before it went out of bounds. Didn't look like it did.

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1/7, four overthrows, two off-targets
32:33 -

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Missed catch by Austin Holt. Ball was high, Holt got a hand on it mid-stride but couldn't come down with it. Not a great throw, but probably catchable.
1/8, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop
33:15 -
Heaps throws a midrange pass to Falslev. Pass is on point but Falslev is well covered, incomplete. Substitution penalty against USU, repeat down.
1/9, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
34:05 -
Heaps throws short pass to Marcus Mathews. Mathews is well covered but coverage is on the outside of the pass. Catch is made for 3 yards and a first down. 2/10, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
34:40 -

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Beautiful 15-yard pass to a mostly-uncovered Austin Holt. Holt picks up about 6 more yards. Heaps' best throw thus far. (Half of LES mutters, "That's what happens when you throw to your tight ends!")
3/11, one great completion, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
USU calls a timeout.
39:14 -

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5 yard pass to JJ. Over his head, but that's probably where the ball needed to go. Shy of the first, but Riley provides his first taste of "everyone chill out, I got this" and converts the 4th.
4/11, one great completion, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
52:15 -

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Heaps with a bad throw to McKay Jacobsen on 3rd down. Appeared to be overthrown again. Drive killer.
4/12, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
59:50 -

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(Video got real low quality for a couple of minutes.)
Heaps throws an on-the-numbers pass to Marcus Mathews for a 10 yard gain.
5/13, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
1:01:05 -

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Heaps throws a screen pass to Apo. First screen pass of the night, I think. Complete (the minute we don't expect our QBs/WRs to complete these sorts of passes is the minute I take a hiatus from BYU football).
6/14, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
01:02:38 -
Presumably broken play results in a dump-off pass to Jacobsen who is running a horizontal route over the line of scrimmage. It's a decently thrown ball but it results in a short 2 yards.
7/15, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
1:03:40 -

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Heaps a 7-yard pass to a virtually-double-covered Jacobsen. It goes about as well as you expect, Jacobsen is practically wrapped up before the ball even gets there. Drive killer.
7/16, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, two breakups
1:25:07 -

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Heaps throws a 4-5 yard pass to Richard Wilson. Ball is on the numbers and looked completely catchable, albeit not for any significant YAC. It's dropped, incomplete.
7/17, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop, two breakups
1:25:47

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Heaps converts on 3rd down, completing a pretty tough-looking throw to Hoffman for around a 20-yard gain. Well thrown.
8/18, two great completions, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop, two breakups
1:28:00

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Heaps hits Falslev in stride, for a nice 15-yard gain.
9/19, two great completions, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop, two breakups
1:29:13

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Heaps throws a beautiful long-ball to Hoffman, who is in one-on-one coverage, and...can't pull it in. This was by no means a gimme catch, but it was a very well-thrown, catchable ball and Hoffman came up short. I'm counting it as an easy drop, because you gotta catch these.
9/20, two great completions, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups
1:30:10

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Heaps throws a beautiful floating pass to Apo in the endzone, with one-on-one coverage, and...again, incomplete.
Again, I'm no QB expert, but I'm really conflicted about this throw. On one hand, this was a great throw in terms of touch, accuracy, etc. However, as I vaguely remember some people arguing, Apo's really not in a position to make this catch: even if he hadn't bobbled it, he still would've been just out of bounds. The picture really doesn't capture how much backwards momentum Apo has. He landed several inches out of the end zone.
The ball was positioned so that, theoretically, a receiver COULD catch it and stay in bounds, but Apo, with a cover-man to his outside, was not in that position. While being a pass to Heaps' credit, I'm still counting it as off-target.
9/21, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups,
1:31:10 - pass batted down. Heaps needed to convert here, but I'm a little more upset at Doman. The run game was working here. I get the pass on 2nd and 2 because 2nd and 2 in the red zone is BUILT for passes. But all we needed was two yards. on 3rd down. Drive killer, 3 points. End of half.
HALF-TIME TALLY: 9/21, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups, and a bat-down.
1:58:10 -

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Heaps tosses to Holt, who seems to be running a short out route. He catches it, but loses all momentum in doing so, and is wrapped up before he can go past the line of scrimmage.
If I get one comment on this thread, I want just one question answered: why do so many of Heaps' passes seem like YAC killers? It seems like receivers and tight ends almost NEVER catch his passes in stride, and they're either in a position where they have to dive to catch (end of play), or are so slowed down by the catch that they're swarmed before they can start any forward progress (end of play). Is this a defect of Heaps, our receivers, or is it just the way Doman's drawing it up?
10/22, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups, and a bat-down.
1:59:20 -

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Heaps throws a short pass to a well-covered Apo, who gets laid out and drops the ball. Drive killer.
10/23, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.

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After a Hoffman kick return, ESPN decides that they'll add insult to injury by juxtaposing criticisms of Heaps with this.
2:14:25 -

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Heaps targets Falslev, but the pass is low and too far right and lands out of bounds. Now the announcers are chatting about Ty Detmer winning the Heisman. I'm glad I was at the game because I think hearing that at this point would've made me cry.
10/24, two great completions, five overthrows, four off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
2:14:55 -

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Heaps hits Mathews for a 5-yard pick up. Mathews had a good game, didn't he? Funny thing about this pass: Heaps' last completion was the exact opposite of what you would expect from a Heaps pass - ugly, wobbly, soft, and totally catch-able. I didn't see any contact, but Joe T. is saying it was tipped.
11/25, two great completions, five overthrows, four off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
2:15:21 -

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with yet another graphic highlighting our 3rd down struggles (Heaps is 3/8 on 3rd down, about to be 3/9), Heaps lines up under center, winds up, and throws a bullet pass to Mathews, who was tightly covered and probably would've been a yard short if he caught it. The pass ricochets off of Mathew's hands. Heaps' last snap of the game.
HEAPS' TOTALS: 11/26, two great completions, five overthrows, four off-targets, two tough drops, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
So, by my count, Heaps threw 26 passes. 11 were completed, 2 of which were impressive throws. However, 15 were not completed. Of those 15:
-nine were (from my vantage point) uncatchable,
-two SHOULD have been caught,
-two could've been caught but were tough throws,
-three were broken up on contact (and thus were probably thrown to a receiver who was not the best option),
- one was knocked away at the line of scrimmage.
With off-target passes, there's always the possibility that the receiver wasn't properly running the route, etc. but so many of these throws were way off, especially in the end-zone/along the ends of the field in a way where NO receiver could've caught them. From my armchair quarterbacking position, most of the incompletions can be attributed to Heaps himself.
RILEY NELSON

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2:25:28 - Riley hits Hoffman for 21 yards. It's not a great throw, but let's talk about what it IS - it's a good read (Hoffman juked his coverman to the ground and is WIDE open), and it's totally catchable. Sometimes it just seems like so many of Heaps' problems stem from the fact that he throws the ball too dang hard. If you have two QBs that struggle with accuracy, you'd pick the one whose throws come in soft over the one whose throws come in too hard, wouldn't you? I feel like if Heaps had thrown this pass, it just would've bounced off Cody's fingers.
1/1
2:26:45 Riley throws a weak incomplete pass on a RB screen play. A bad throw made under pressure, the play looked like it broke down a bit (always hard to tell on RB screens). If JJ had caught it, he probably would've been laid out pretty quick. Ball was catchable, but not a great throw.
1/2, one tough drop

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2:27:33 Badly thrown pass to Apo. Way off target. Drive killer, Sorensen misses the field goal. Game starts to suck really bad.
1/3, one off-target, one tough drop
2:43:20

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Riley Nelson scrambles and extends the play long enough to hit Kariya for a 10 yard game.
I am trying to be objective in my analysis here, but I am a Riley supporter and this play is one of the reasons why. Riley seems like he's got a good skillset to make up for his lack of throwing prowess. Riley can scramble, which means that receivers can get open. If Riley's smart enough and elusive enough he shouldn't have to thread the needle every time he throws.
2/4, one off-target, one tough drop
2:44:00 -

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Not a throw, but worth noting - JJ busts a big run here. Riley's fake keep is enough to throw off USU's first line of defense for a split second, giving JJ a huge route.
2:45:00

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Weak throw by Riley incomplete to JJ. Came in too low.
2/5, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:46:00

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Touchdown pass to the Hoff. Nothing to say here other than it was a beautiful throw and a beautiful catch. The announcer makes the observation that most of us made at the same time - "They are making the kind of catches that they weren't making when Heaps was in there."
3/6, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:54:00

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10 yard dumpoff to Kariya. I'm less interested in the throw than I am in the timing - Riley can extend plays longer than Heaps by virtue of being willing to take a hit. He waits until the play develops, even though he's got a LB breathing down his throat by the time he throws. I don't hold Heaps' unwillingness to get hit against him - he's not "athletics" the way a Nelson or a Munns is, and I don't want him getting himself hurt - but it's something Riley brings to the table. By the way, wasn't Kariya's flip-dive for the last yard AWESOME?
4/7, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:55:00

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10 yard pass to Marcus Mathews. He has to climb the ladder for it, but he gets it.
This throw is another type of throw that Heaps was making in similarly inaccurate fashion, yet his were missed whereas this one was caught. It's possible that if Riley threw more, we'd see more throws like this and less completions. I'm open to that. However, I see a key difference - Nelson's ball comes in with substantially less velocity. Mathews had plenty of time to react, hop up and grab it.
5/8, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:56:30

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Hoffman decides to complement his previous diving catch with a nearly identical one, this time for 4 yards. Same as the last - not a great throw, but a catchable ball, which was caught. (This was the catch that was reviewed.)
6/9, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
3:10:55

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5-yard dump-off to Mathews. (Again, no idea Mathews had such a big night before his big finish.) Riley's just taking what they give him right here. Most of us watching (including myself) were probably a little frustrated with his target choice here, especially since Mathews was in the dead middle of the field and kept the clock running.
7/10, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
(My computer ate the pictures for the next following catches, but I'm sure many of you have rewatched them since.)
3:11:55
7 yard pass to Jacobsen on the sidelines to stop the clock. Smart play. Jacobsen was attracting coverage; I would imagine that if Riley hesitated for an additional moment this pass would've probably been broken up. Nice work with the quick draw.
8/11, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
3:14:05 Riley Nelson's pass is dropped by Kariya. This is similar to the pass that Holt dropped in the first quarter, but again, Riley's passes come in with less heat. Holt's drop was understandable, Kariya's is a little less forgivable.
8/12, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop
3:14:45 40-yard pass to Jacobsen.
On one hand, you want to dismiss this play. It was a miracle throw and a miracle catch, probably not the play they had drawn up, and it feels lucky. On the other hand, Riley made this play happen. He scrambled, ducked out of a tackle, and managed to make some communication with Jacobsen so that Jacobsen knew he had to go to the ball. I don't expect Nelson to do this often, but make no mistake: Nelson's guts, brain and arm are what made this play happen.
9/13, two great completions, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop
3:17:10 -

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Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
Seriously, though, even if this ball hadn't miraculously been tipped into the hands of Mathews, I still like our chances. The pass was tipped as a direct result of a penalty that would've given us another shot, this time ridiculously close to the end zone.
Riley Nelson final tally: 10/14, two great completions, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop
Final thoughts: I did most of this last night before going to bed. With all of this on my mind, I was sort of surprised when, while listening to 1320 in the car, there seemed to be a unanimous consensus that Riley's game was a lucky accident and that he still can't throw. To this set of eyes, Riley's throws may not be as impressive as Heaps', but they look a heck of a lot more catchable. Am I the only one seeing this? Or is my football IQ too low?
A lot has been made about Heaps' throws vs. Riley's throws. I've been mostly arguing in favor of Riley, but I see Heaps' supporters' point of view - even with a sub-100 PER, he still shows little glimmers of being a great quarterback and doing things Riley Nelson probably can't do. A few posters (I'm looking at you, BYUROCKS, but not scornfully) argued that Heaps' poor performance is more attributable to the offense in general. Others have blamed the receiving corps, the running game, or Doman.
In an attempt to better understand Heaps' shortcomings, as well as examine whether Riley's performance owed more to luck than skill, I thought I'd watch the game and break down each throw. I didn't think it'd take more than 30 minutes, and it ended up taking about 3 hours spread over 2 days. :blush:
Anyways, if you're curious, I've provided the fruits of my labors, with screen-captures of most of the passes. I apologize for the grainy quality; cheap apartments mean that ESPN3 comes in at pretty low-resolution. Each throw is timestamped based on ESPN's broadcast running time if you want to follow along (I don't know why you would).
JAKE HEAPS
10:00(ish) - Play action long ball intended for Ross Apo. Incomplete, holding called on Utah State. It's difficult to determine quality/accuracy of the throw based on PI. The throw looked good but fell several yards ahead of Apo, which is concerning: while there was definitely contact from Utah State, it didn't seem to slow Apo up that much.
0/1, one overthrow (note that stats won't line up with official stats, as I'm counting called back plays)
10:45 -
Another deep ball thrown to Apo, once again overthrown. Fans booed, at the time I wasn't not sure if they were contesting contact (coverage was tight) or if they were just booing Heaps.
0/2, two overthrows
12:45 -
Well-thrown pass finds JJ Di Luigi going over the middle (a welcome change from UCF's sideline-mania) about 3 yards out from the line of scrimmage. Di Luigi manages to add decent yards after catch for a gain of 21.
1/3, two overthrows
19:58 -
Heaps throws ball to nobody in particular, dropped by Utah State defender.
Should have been intercepted. Last year, I consistently told myself that the silver lining to Heaps' "bullet balls" is that if our WRs couldn't hold onto them, then CBs and safeties probably couldn't either. Probably still holds true.
1/4, two overthrows, one off-target
5 20:45 -
Heaps throws ball to Apo, wedged between two Aggies. Ball is off: too high and too far left. Apo jumps for it; Aggie jumps into Apo and is ejected from game.
I don't want to say that what happened to Apo is Heaps' fault. Taking hits is always a risk with inside slant, over the middle routes. And obviously, the Aggie proactively jumped into Apo, making matters worse. However, Apo was jumping into the Aggie as well in an effort to grab the ball. Additionally, this is the second week in a row where Apo's taken serious abuse going for a tough catch over center.
1/5, two overthrows, two off-targets
23:08 -
End zone toss incomplete, Faslev was the target. Overthrown.
1/6, three overthrows, two off-targets
24:28 -
End zone toss goes over the head of a leaping Di Luigi. Would've appreciated a replay or a different angle than the one ESPN provided. From ESPN's vantage point, I'm not sure the ball descended to a catch-able altitude before it went out of bounds. Didn't look like it did.
1/7, four overthrows, two off-targets
32:33 -
Missed catch by Austin Holt. Ball was high, Holt got a hand on it mid-stride but couldn't come down with it. Not a great throw, but probably catchable.
1/8, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop
33:15 -
Heaps throws a midrange pass to Falslev. Pass is on point but Falslev is well covered, incomplete. Substitution penalty against USU, repeat down.
1/9, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
34:05 -
Heaps throws short pass to Marcus Mathews. Mathews is well covered but coverage is on the outside of the pass. Catch is made for 3 yards and a first down. 2/10, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
34:40 -
Beautiful 15-yard pass to a mostly-uncovered Austin Holt. Holt picks up about 6 more yards. Heaps' best throw thus far. (Half of LES mutters, "That's what happens when you throw to your tight ends!")
3/11, one great completion, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
USU calls a timeout.
39:14 -
5 yard pass to JJ. Over his head, but that's probably where the ball needed to go. Shy of the first, but Riley provides his first taste of "everyone chill out, I got this" and converts the 4th.
4/11, one great completion, four overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
52:15 -
Heaps with a bad throw to McKay Jacobsen on 3rd down. Appeared to be overthrown again. Drive killer.
4/12, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
59:50 -
(Video got real low quality for a couple of minutes.)
Heaps throws an on-the-numbers pass to Marcus Mathews for a 10 yard gain.
5/13, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
1:01:05 -
Heaps throws a screen pass to Apo. First screen pass of the night, I think. Complete (the minute we don't expect our QBs/WRs to complete these sorts of passes is the minute I take a hiatus from BYU football).
6/14, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
01:02:38 -
Presumably broken play results in a dump-off pass to Jacobsen who is running a horizontal route over the line of scrimmage. It's a decently thrown ball but it results in a short 2 yards.
7/15, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one breakup
1:03:40 -
Heaps a 7-yard pass to a virtually-double-covered Jacobsen. It goes about as well as you expect, Jacobsen is practically wrapped up before the ball even gets there. Drive killer.
7/16, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, two breakups
1:25:07 -
Heaps throws a 4-5 yard pass to Richard Wilson. Ball is on the numbers and looked completely catchable, albeit not for any significant YAC. It's dropped, incomplete.
7/17, one great completion, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop, two breakups
1:25:47
Heaps converts on 3rd down, completing a pretty tough-looking throw to Hoffman for around a 20-yard gain. Well thrown.
8/18, two great completions, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop, two breakups
1:28:00
Heaps hits Falslev in stride, for a nice 15-yard gain.
9/19, two great completions, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop, two breakups
1:29:13
Heaps throws a beautiful long-ball to Hoffman, who is in one-on-one coverage, and...can't pull it in. This was by no means a gimme catch, but it was a very well-thrown, catchable ball and Hoffman came up short. I'm counting it as an easy drop, because you gotta catch these.
9/20, two great completions, five overthrows, two off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups
1:30:10
Heaps throws a beautiful floating pass to Apo in the endzone, with one-on-one coverage, and...again, incomplete.
Again, I'm no QB expert, but I'm really conflicted about this throw. On one hand, this was a great throw in terms of touch, accuracy, etc. However, as I vaguely remember some people arguing, Apo's really not in a position to make this catch: even if he hadn't bobbled it, he still would've been just out of bounds. The picture really doesn't capture how much backwards momentum Apo has. He landed several inches out of the end zone.
The ball was positioned so that, theoretically, a receiver COULD catch it and stay in bounds, but Apo, with a cover-man to his outside, was not in that position. While being a pass to Heaps' credit, I'm still counting it as off-target.
9/21, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups,
1:31:10 - pass batted down. Heaps needed to convert here, but I'm a little more upset at Doman. The run game was working here. I get the pass on 2nd and 2 because 2nd and 2 in the red zone is BUILT for passes. But all we needed was two yards. on 3rd down. Drive killer, 3 points. End of half.
HALF-TIME TALLY: 9/21, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups, and a bat-down.
1:58:10 -
Heaps tosses to Holt, who seems to be running a short out route. He catches it, but loses all momentum in doing so, and is wrapped up before he can go past the line of scrimmage.
If I get one comment on this thread, I want just one question answered: why do so many of Heaps' passes seem like YAC killers? It seems like receivers and tight ends almost NEVER catch his passes in stride, and they're either in a position where they have to dive to catch (end of play), or are so slowed down by the catch that they're swarmed before they can start any forward progress (end of play). Is this a defect of Heaps, our receivers, or is it just the way Doman's drawing it up?
10/22, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, two breakups, and a bat-down.
1:59:20 -
Heaps throws a short pass to a well-covered Apo, who gets laid out and drops the ball. Drive killer.
10/23, two great completions, five overthrows, three off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
After a Hoffman kick return, ESPN decides that they'll add insult to injury by juxtaposing criticisms of Heaps with this.
2:14:25 -
Heaps targets Falslev, but the pass is low and too far right and lands out of bounds. Now the announcers are chatting about Ty Detmer winning the Heisman. I'm glad I was at the game because I think hearing that at this point would've made me cry.
10/24, two great completions, five overthrows, four off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
2:14:55 -
Heaps hits Mathews for a 5-yard pick up. Mathews had a good game, didn't he? Funny thing about this pass: Heaps' last completion was the exact opposite of what you would expect from a Heaps pass - ugly, wobbly, soft, and totally catch-able. I didn't see any contact, but Joe T. is saying it was tipped.
11/25, two great completions, five overthrows, four off-targets, one tough drop, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
2:15:21 -
with yet another graphic highlighting our 3rd down struggles (Heaps is 3/8 on 3rd down, about to be 3/9), Heaps lines up under center, winds up, and throws a bullet pass to Mathews, who was tightly covered and probably would've been a yard short if he caught it. The pass ricochets off of Mathew's hands. Heaps' last snap of the game.
HEAPS' TOTALS: 11/26, two great completions, five overthrows, four off-targets, two tough drops, two easy drops, three breakups, and a bat-down.
So, by my count, Heaps threw 26 passes. 11 were completed, 2 of which were impressive throws. However, 15 were not completed. Of those 15:
-nine were (from my vantage point) uncatchable,
-two SHOULD have been caught,
-two could've been caught but were tough throws,
-three were broken up on contact (and thus were probably thrown to a receiver who was not the best option),
- one was knocked away at the line of scrimmage.
With off-target passes, there's always the possibility that the receiver wasn't properly running the route, etc. but so many of these throws were way off, especially in the end-zone/along the ends of the field in a way where NO receiver could've caught them. From my armchair quarterbacking position, most of the incompletions can be attributed to Heaps himself.
RILEY NELSON
2:25:28 - Riley hits Hoffman for 21 yards. It's not a great throw, but let's talk about what it IS - it's a good read (Hoffman juked his coverman to the ground and is WIDE open), and it's totally catchable. Sometimes it just seems like so many of Heaps' problems stem from the fact that he throws the ball too dang hard. If you have two QBs that struggle with accuracy, you'd pick the one whose throws come in soft over the one whose throws come in too hard, wouldn't you? I feel like if Heaps had thrown this pass, it just would've bounced off Cody's fingers.
1/1
2:26:45 Riley throws a weak incomplete pass on a RB screen play. A bad throw made under pressure, the play looked like it broke down a bit (always hard to tell on RB screens). If JJ had caught it, he probably would've been laid out pretty quick. Ball was catchable, but not a great throw.
1/2, one tough drop
2:27:33 Badly thrown pass to Apo. Way off target. Drive killer, Sorensen misses the field goal. Game starts to suck really bad.
1/3, one off-target, one tough drop
2:43:20
Riley Nelson scrambles and extends the play long enough to hit Kariya for a 10 yard game.
I am trying to be objective in my analysis here, but I am a Riley supporter and this play is one of the reasons why. Riley seems like he's got a good skillset to make up for his lack of throwing prowess. Riley can scramble, which means that receivers can get open. If Riley's smart enough and elusive enough he shouldn't have to thread the needle every time he throws.
2/4, one off-target, one tough drop
2:44:00 -
Not a throw, but worth noting - JJ busts a big run here. Riley's fake keep is enough to throw off USU's first line of defense for a split second, giving JJ a huge route.
2:45:00
Weak throw by Riley incomplete to JJ. Came in too low.
2/5, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:46:00
Touchdown pass to the Hoff. Nothing to say here other than it was a beautiful throw and a beautiful catch. The announcer makes the observation that most of us made at the same time - "They are making the kind of catches that they weren't making when Heaps was in there."
3/6, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:54:00
10 yard dumpoff to Kariya. I'm less interested in the throw than I am in the timing - Riley can extend plays longer than Heaps by virtue of being willing to take a hit. He waits until the play develops, even though he's got a LB breathing down his throat by the time he throws. I don't hold Heaps' unwillingness to get hit against him - he's not "athletics" the way a Nelson or a Munns is, and I don't want him getting himself hurt - but it's something Riley brings to the table. By the way, wasn't Kariya's flip-dive for the last yard AWESOME?
4/7, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:55:00
10 yard pass to Marcus Mathews. He has to climb the ladder for it, but he gets it.
This throw is another type of throw that Heaps was making in similarly inaccurate fashion, yet his were missed whereas this one was caught. It's possible that if Riley threw more, we'd see more throws like this and less completions. I'm open to that. However, I see a key difference - Nelson's ball comes in with substantially less velocity. Mathews had plenty of time to react, hop up and grab it.
5/8, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
2:56:30
Hoffman decides to complement his previous diving catch with a nearly identical one, this time for 4 yards. Same as the last - not a great throw, but a catchable ball, which was caught. (This was the catch that was reviewed.)
6/9, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
3:10:55
5-yard dump-off to Mathews. (Again, no idea Mathews had such a big night before his big finish.) Riley's just taking what they give him right here. Most of us watching (including myself) were probably a little frustrated with his target choice here, especially since Mathews was in the dead middle of the field and kept the clock running.
7/10, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
(My computer ate the pictures for the next following catches, but I'm sure many of you have rewatched them since.)
3:11:55
7 yard pass to Jacobsen on the sidelines to stop the clock. Smart play. Jacobsen was attracting coverage; I would imagine that if Riley hesitated for an additional moment this pass would've probably been broken up. Nice work with the quick draw.
8/11, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop
3:14:05 Riley Nelson's pass is dropped by Kariya. This is similar to the pass that Holt dropped in the first quarter, but again, Riley's passes come in with less heat. Holt's drop was understandable, Kariya's is a little less forgivable.
8/12, one great completion, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop
3:14:45 40-yard pass to Jacobsen.
On one hand, you want to dismiss this play. It was a miracle throw and a miracle catch, probably not the play they had drawn up, and it feels lucky. On the other hand, Riley made this play happen. He scrambled, ducked out of a tackle, and managed to make some communication with Jacobsen so that Jacobsen knew he had to go to the ball. I don't expect Nelson to do this often, but make no mistake: Nelson's guts, brain and arm are what made this play happen.
9/13, two great completions, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop
3:17:10 -
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
Seriously, though, even if this ball hadn't miraculously been tipped into the hands of Mathews, I still like our chances. The pass was tipped as a direct result of a penalty that would've given us another shot, this time ridiculously close to the end zone.
Riley Nelson final tally: 10/14, two great completions, two off-targets, one tough drop, one easy drop
Final thoughts: I did most of this last night before going to bed. With all of this on my mind, I was sort of surprised when, while listening to 1320 in the car, there seemed to be a unanimous consensus that Riley's game was a lucky accident and that he still can't throw. To this set of eyes, Riley's throws may not be as impressive as Heaps', but they look a heck of a lot more catchable. Am I the only one seeing this? Or is my football IQ too low?

