What PER vs. USU does Heaps need to have?

We all know that Heaps has been under performing. Some want to look at other options, others want to wait and give him more chances.



We will be playing one of the worst defenses in college football this week against Utah State. There's no doubt that Heaps will be starting. So the question is, what PER does Heaps need to attain for you to be satisfied with his performance?



Thanks to SpiffCoug, we know that an average QB hits approximately 136 on the PER scale. Heaps is right around 100 right now. Does the fact that he will be playing against a super weak defense change your expectations at all?

Spiff, can you share with us what the average BYU QB's per has been against Utah State (excluding last year)? since the Sheide era?

150 for me. Or match what Auburn and CSU got on them. This is USU. But even if Jake gets 200 and we blow them out I want Nelson and Lark to start getting meaningful game time reps for development of a back-up QB.



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First and foremost, BYU needs to win the game. PEr is always secondary to that.



Having said that, I think a minimum of 140. No reason why he can not hit that benchmark--or far above it.

I'll have to do some digging, but I'll see what I can come up with.



I expect a 130-139 for the first half. If he's well below that (like sub 110) then I expect a new QB to be trotting out in the 2nd half.

I don't think he gets replaced. Who do you trot out there? Nelson, who has proven he isn't a FBS caliber QB or Lark, who hasn't been able to beat out Nelson for 2 years?



I'd be ok with 120 PER for the QB. I know it's not great. I did see some improvement in the decision making in the last game. The only extremely terrible decision was on the throw that was intercepted. He threw into an area with 2 receivers and 3 defenders. I give a little fault to the design of the play because the 2 receivers were too close together on the route scheme. That ball should have been thrown 12 rows into the stands, but the kid was trying to make a play.



Also saw some improvement in toughness. His willingness to stand in and take some hits was much better than it had been. He also seemed to have happy feet less in the pocket. Also, his throws, though not accurate were actually thrown on time for the most part.



I can't believe I actually just defended the QB a little bit, but I think he did improve last week in some crucial areas (namely making the right decision and toughness). He has a lot of room to improve in those areas.



His accuracy obviously needs to improve. He needs to hit the curls at closer to 80%. He throws the outs surprisingly well compared to the curls. The out is a much harder pass to compete. If he starts hitting the curls in the pass game, the rest will open up.



The next greatest area he needs to improve on is making the right throw at the right time on his deep ball to make it catchable. He either lofts it when he should laser it (his overthrow of Apo against Texas) or he lasers it when he should loft it (his overthrow to Jacobson last game). Also, when it's a fly pattern down the sidelines, half the time he throws it out of bounds.

Average. I'll take average.



If I recall correctly, Heaps has only thrown at or above 136 twice. So, I'll settle for and hope he hits the average mark.

With the way our defense is playing, if Heaps can just make it to average we should be scary good as a team.

stuckinbig10country wrote:
I don't think he gets replaced. Who do you trot out there? Nelson, who has proven he isn't a FBS caliber QB or Lark, who hasn't been able to beat out Nelson for 2 years?



I'd be ok with 120 PER for the QB. I know it's not great. I did see some improvement in the decision making in the last game. The only extremely terrible decision was on the throw that was intercepted. He threw into an area with 2 receivers and 3 defenders. I give a little fault to the design of the play because the 2 receivers were too close together on the route scheme. That ball should have been thrown 12 rows into the stands, but the kid was trying to make a play.



Also saw some improvement in toughness. His willingness to stand in and take some hits was much better than it had been. He also seemed to have happy feet less in the pocket. Also, his throws, though not accurate were actually thrown on time for the most part.



I can't believe I actually just defended the QB a little bit, but I think he did improve last week in some crucial areas (namely making the right decision and toughness). He has a lot of room to improve in those areas.



His accuracy obviously needs to improve. He needs to hit the curls at closer to 80%. He throws the outs surprisingly well compared to the curls. The out is a much harder pass to compete. If he starts hitting the curls in the pass game, the rest will open up.



The next greatest area he needs to improve on is making the right throw at the right time on his deep ball to make it catchable. He either lofts it when he should laser it (his overthrow of Apo against Texas) or he lasers it when he should loft it (his overthrow to Jacobson last game). Also, when it's a fly pattern down the sidelines, half the time he throws it out of bounds.

My problem is that I am not sure I trust the offensive coaches to determine if Heaps really is the best. Right now the offensive product on the field is embarrassingly bad, and these guys were taking days off because we were so far ahead of where we had ever been. So, either something has happened since then or the coaches are terrible at judging talent.



I guess it could be both.

Cougarstats only had boxscores available going back to 1983. Here is the average game for a BYU QB during that time:

1. Lead BYU to a 39-18 win (BYU is 19-2 vs USU since then)

2. PER: 150.92.

3. 24 of 39 for 352 yards with 2 TDs & 2 INTs



Granted there are some huge games in there from the likes of Bosco, Detmer and Walsh. So if you just go back to 2001 here are the numbers:

1. Lead BYU to a 35-22 win (BYU is 6-1)

2. PER: 136.51

3. 23 of 37 for 285 yards with 2 TDs & 2 INTs.

So it sounds as if 136 truly is a fair benchmark then. Good stuff.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Cougarstats only had boxscores available going back to 1983. Here is the average game for a BYU QB during that time:

1. Lead BYU to a 39-18 win (BYU is 19-2 vs USU since then)

2. PER: 150.92.

3. 24 of 39 for 352 yards with 2 TDs & 2 INTs



Granted there are some huge games in there from the likes of Bosco, Detmer and Walsh. So if you just go back to 2001 here are the numbers:

1. Lead BYU to a 35-22 win (BYU is 6-1)

2. PER: 136.51

3. 23 of 37 for 285 yards with 2 TDs & 2 INTs.

Thanks Spiff, this is outstanding information. I'm lowering my expectations about what will be a good game for Heaps from 150-159 to 136.

Loving round numbers I dropped to 140 with the same caveat that even if he goes over 200 and blows out USU I want to see more of Nelson and Lark so we develop a backup QB. Stuff happens. None of our opponents have protected their QB well enough to avoid getting knocked off the field for at least a series. Enough whining about poor blocking. Heaps has hardly been touched against 4 very physical defenses. We need a back up QB because stuff happens.



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