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Dcr36BYU's defense is currently ranked #22 in the nation, which is moderately impressive considering we've played two teams from AQ conferences, including a ranked opponent. Granted, it's early in the season and we really don't have any idea exactly what type of competition we've faced. Nonetheless, I'm buying into the assumption that we have a borderline-elite front seven.
I've seen some people on here suggest that BYU should break from the air raid teams of old and become a Pittsburgh Steeler-esque "ball control" team. Elsewhere, I've seen more people complain about how depressing it is that we've scored about 30 points total in two games when we used to do that in two quarters. A lot has been made of Doman's playcalling, as well.
I thought, for fun, I'd look into the playcalling philosophies of the teams with the 25 best defenses in 2010. I decided to base the rankings of yards allowed per play. (I have some problems with the "total defense" rankings, but even if I had used those, there's not a huge amount of deviation between the two.) Here are the 27 best defenses in 2010 Division I football. (There was a tie in the rankings, hence the two extra teams.)
http://i1107.photobucket.com/albums/h387/dcr36/topdef.jpg " alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">
Next, I added up how many run plays each of these teams' offenses executed, vs. the number of pass plays that were called. Before I post those, here's a quick reference for what's "normal" in college football:
http://i1107.photobucket.com/albums/h387/dcr36/ratioavg.jpg " alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">
Thus, somewhere around 54% is average. Obviously you have teams that are at extreme ends of both spectrums (Hawaii and Texas Tech on the pass end, the service academies and Georgia Tech on the run end) but most schools only deviate moderately from that average number.
Anyways, here's the corresponding philosophies of the top 27 defensive teams. Teams above the NCAA rushing play average are listed in blue, teams below the rushing play average are listed in red. I've also included the teams' time of possession rank (anything below 60 = greater than 30 mins), winning percentage and Sagarin ranking.
http://i1107.photobucket.com/albums/h387/dcr36/defenseteams.jpg " alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">
A few thoughts on the findings:
-If this truly is a case of causation, and not mere correlation, BYU's current offensive philosophy does not bode well. BYU has attempted (by my count) 76 passes to 54 runs. That's close to a 41%/59% split. That's not necessarily BAD, per se, and you can win with that sort of split, but if your defense is your team's strong suite, it doesn't make much sense. Pass plays are more likely to stop the clock or pick up bigger chunks of yards at once, which leads to quicker possession, resulting in a more winded defense.
-On the other hand, struggling teams are generally going to throw the ball more, as they'll generally have less manageable 2nd and 3rd downs and find themselves playing from behind. Also, stats don't highlight the realities of BYU's offensive woes: it's not like I WANTED Doman to call more running plays in the Texas game, based on the number of no-yardage stuffs our backs were producing.
- Still, an interesting additional stat - elite defensive teams that ran more rushing plays than the NCAA mean won an average 9.3 games. On the other hand, those that ran more passing plays than the NCAA mean won just 6.9. If you take BSU's stats out, chalking them up to style-points-fueled hysteria, that number drops to 6.25.
- Something that I want to look into more - based on a few quick glances, you could make an argument that running the ball more leads to greater success EVEN IF you're not necessarily picking up that many yards. West Virginia ranked 16th nationally in rushing attempts, but averaged a pedestrian 3.95 YPC (#81 nationally). They also managed to win 9 games.
I'm sure stat-heads are going to rip this apart, but it's food for thought. Sorry about the lo-fi Excel screenshots. :~(
I've seen some people on here suggest that BYU should break from the air raid teams of old and become a Pittsburgh Steeler-esque "ball control" team. Elsewhere, I've seen more people complain about how depressing it is that we've scored about 30 points total in two games when we used to do that in two quarters. A lot has been made of Doman's playcalling, as well.
I thought, for fun, I'd look into the playcalling philosophies of the teams with the 25 best defenses in 2010. I decided to base the rankings of yards allowed per play. (I have some problems with the "total defense" rankings, but even if I had used those, there's not a huge amount of deviation between the two.) Here are the 27 best defenses in 2010 Division I football. (There was a tie in the rankings, hence the two extra teams.)
Next, I added up how many run plays each of these teams' offenses executed, vs. the number of pass plays that were called. Before I post those, here's a quick reference for what's "normal" in college football:
Thus, somewhere around 54% is average. Obviously you have teams that are at extreme ends of both spectrums (Hawaii and Texas Tech on the pass end, the service academies and Georgia Tech on the run end) but most schools only deviate moderately from that average number.
Anyways, here's the corresponding philosophies of the top 27 defensive teams. Teams above the NCAA rushing play average are listed in blue, teams below the rushing play average are listed in red. I've also included the teams' time of possession rank (anything below 60 = greater than 30 mins), winning percentage and Sagarin ranking.
A few thoughts on the findings:
-If this truly is a case of causation, and not mere correlation, BYU's current offensive philosophy does not bode well. BYU has attempted (by my count) 76 passes to 54 runs. That's close to a 41%/59% split. That's not necessarily BAD, per se, and you can win with that sort of split, but if your defense is your team's strong suite, it doesn't make much sense. Pass plays are more likely to stop the clock or pick up bigger chunks of yards at once, which leads to quicker possession, resulting in a more winded defense.
-On the other hand, struggling teams are generally going to throw the ball more, as they'll generally have less manageable 2nd and 3rd downs and find themselves playing from behind. Also, stats don't highlight the realities of BYU's offensive woes: it's not like I WANTED Doman to call more running plays in the Texas game, based on the number of no-yardage stuffs our backs were producing.
- Still, an interesting additional stat - elite defensive teams that ran more rushing plays than the NCAA mean won an average 9.3 games. On the other hand, those that ran more passing plays than the NCAA mean won just 6.9. If you take BSU's stats out, chalking them up to style-points-fueled hysteria, that number drops to 6.25.
- Something that I want to look into more - based on a few quick glances, you could make an argument that running the ball more leads to greater success EVEN IF you're not necessarily picking up that many yards. West Virginia ranked 16th nationally in rushing attempts, but averaged a pedestrian 3.95 YPC (#81 nationally). They also managed to win 9 games.
I'm sure stat-heads are going to rip this apart, but it's food for thought. Sorry about the lo-fi Excel screenshots. :~(