Hide yo cheerios (Conference Doomsday)

You know it's getting crazy when blue goggled homers like myself turn to chicken littles, but here it comes. Prepare to have your cheerios peed on.



Recent developments outside BYU have led me to one conclusion: if we don't get into a big conference soon, we will be screwed. IMO the best case scenario at that point would be to have schedules like this year's: 1-2 big names in September, usually on the road, a few decent matchups often at neutral sites and then 6 or more crap games. The worst case would involve bringing up several FCS teams up a division or dropping the non-AQ's down a division in order to field enough teams for the non-AQ's to compete against. Maybe we would end up in the Big Sky conference or the WAC.



Even if they don't do that officially, that is where I see things going in practice. The Pac-12 and soon to be Big Ten and SEC rules against their conferences' schools scheduling OOC games outside September could really kill us. Especially if the larger conferences go to 9 or 10 conference game seasons. Geography and the demise of the Big XII and Pac 12 bigotry could doom us.



That's why I hope and pray that we don't get left behind. I don't think Indy will work long term primarily because of scheduling constraints and BCS and bowl access issues. From my current vantage point I am not confident about where we are or where we will be going if and when the Big XII crumbles. If there is no Big XII and the Pac 16 won't take us, where does that leave us? The SEC? The Big Ten? ACC? Big East (which also may not be around)?



I think our only real hope is that the Big XII makes it work. Our next best hope would be for U-T and a couple other schools to join us in a sort of Indy league.



I would appreciate someone to talk me off the ledge.



[edit: I had to change the thread title. I hate it when they're not clear as to the thread's subject matter. I believe I even went off a little on someone like BYUROCKS a few years ago for it-only to find out he was a sophomore in highschool and then I felt like a tool)

I am mostly in your same boat. Little depressing. I am already preparing myself for losing byu sports all together if we are left out of super conferences.



We can't know how everything will happen in the big12 dissolves, but it doesn't look good from the current information we have.



Enjoy it while it lasts. Hopefully it will last for a long time.

We will not be left behind. Why? Money. We make money, we bring fans to games all over and that makes money, we have techonology and reach to make money. Now if I were say Iowa State etc., I'd be pretty darn concerned. But BYU will be at the party post armaggedon

I think the OU to the PAC-12 stories are overblown right now, just like the Texas to the PAC stories were last season. OU splitting from Texas is the dumbest thing they could do, and even Barry Switzer knows it. They rely on Texas HS recruiting and to be relevant, they need to not only play games in Texas, but play--and beat--Texas. If they jump, Texas will drop them just like the are dropping A&M. Why play them and give them that recruiting bump when it no longer benefits Texas to have that game?



In the end, I think OU stays and gets a sweeter revenue share, the Big XII ends up fine, and the superconferences are held off for another 4 years, minimum.

ironic if we turned down the Big 12 because of our commitments to the WCC, only to have to cancel the football program which in turn cancels the funding of the rest of our WCC sports.



Either way, BYU and WCC lose?

Lawboy wrote:
I think the OU to the PAC-12 stories are overblown right now, just like the Texas to the PAC stories were last season. OU splitting from Texas is the dumbest thing they could do, and even Barry Switzer knows it. They rely on Texas HS recruiting and to be relevant, they need to not only play games in Texas, but play--and beat--Texas. If they jump, Texas will drop them just like the are dropping A&M. Why play them and give them that recruiting bump when it no longer benefits Texas to have that game?



In the end, I think OU stays and gets a sweeter revenue share, the Big XII ends up fine, and the superconferences are held off for another 4 years, minimum.

I agree and am hopeful the big12 stays together. but if it does not, I do not share others' optimism that byu will be invited. they are not taking into account the fact that only 64 teams can be in and they can't just get rid of less lucrative teams that are already in. teams like washington state will be in because they are already in. byu will be left out because of geography and bigotry. You never know, but the options don't look good if big12 dissolves.

The longer this mess goes on the uglier the Big12 looks. Do we really want to be affiliated with a league where every team leaks information to make other teams look bad. Where catastrophic events are pushed right up to the very deadline and then taken off the table (for a few weeks)?



I agree with Boise. BYU has less to fear than than a lot of people are really worried about, and since no one has ever shown that being a part is the only guaranteed way to get into a Super Conference (which in my other post I showed why they wont exist) I'm not sure of the reason to get involved with such a dysfunctional group.

hawkwing wrote:
The longer this mess goes on the uglier the Big12 looks. Do we really want to be affiliated with a league where every team leaks information to make other teams look bad. Where catastrophic events are pushed right up to the very deadline and then taken off the table (for a few weeks)?



I agree with Boise. BYU has less to fear than than a lot of people are really worried about, and since no one has ever shown that being a part is the only guaranteed way to get into a Super Conference (which in my other post I showed why they wont exist) I'm not sure of the reason to get involved with such a dysfunctional group.

Implicit in the original post is the assumption that BYU gets the assurances it needs from U-T, OU and the rest of the conference. But absent that, I agree with you.

byutx wrote:

The longer this mess goes on the uglier the Big12 looks. Do we really want to be affiliated with a league where every team leaks information to make other teams look bad. Where catastrophic events are pushed right up to the very deadline and then taken off the table (for a few weeks)?



I agree with Boise. BYU has less to fear than than a lot of people are really worried about, and since no one has ever shown that being a part is the only guaranteed way to get into a Super Conference (which in my other post I showed why they wont exist) I'm not sure of the reason to get involved with such a dysfunctional group.

Implicit in the original post is the assumption that BYU gets the assurances it needs from U-T, OU and the rest of the conference. But absent that, I agree with you.

I completely understand, tx. The problem I have is that even with those assurances we'll still likely get leaks from certain schools to make other schools look bad (OU and TX I'm looking at you). I mean, the teams all signed assurances last year and look where we are again!

hawkwing wrote:
The longer this mess goes on the uglier the Big12 looks. Do we really want to be affiliated with a league where every team leaks information to make other teams look bad. Where catastrophic events are pushed right up to the very deadline and then taken off the table (for a few weeks)?



I agree with Boise. BYU has less to fear than than a lot of people are really worried about, and since no one has ever shown that being a part is the only guaranteed way to get into a Super Conference (which in my other post I showed why they wont exist) I'm not sure of the reason to get involved with such a dysfunctional group.

the reason is it is the only way to stop being left out, in other words, if big 12 dissolves its is super conferences we go and I see no way that we are a part of those. that is why we want to be involved in my opinion. if we can help save big12 we might avoid super conferences.

I am more concerned with scheduling if we get left out. It is already a very difficult problem that only gets made worse if we end up with superconferences all playing 9 game schedules that basically do not allow OOC games in late-October and November. I know we have a long term deal with Hawaii and will get those late season if we have to, I have heard we will also look to lock in a long term deal with BSU for a Thanksgiving weekend game to replace the Utah game, and will try to get Utah long term, but they are not exactly jumping at a long deal right now. Add an occasional C-USA game, MWC game, and hopefully 3-4 BCS schools per year, and the schedule would be ok, just not great at the end of the season when we need to make a splash. BYU fans might have to be ok with staples built on Houston. SMiss, Tulsa, etc. because it will become the reality in the superconference, era with ND, Texas 2 for 1's mixed in.

Where is all of this confidence in assurances from the BigXII coming from? didn't they all give each other assurances last year after CU and nebraska left? Didn't they all give each other assurances when they negotiated their new TV deal? Seeing how much stability those assurances really provide just one year later with aTm headed out the door and OU and OSU playing brinksmanship games, why are BYU fans still infatuated with the idea that more assurances will brung stability to the BigXII? Do you all also think that more stimulus is all we need to get the economy back on track? BigXII assurances have about the same track record.



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Interesting tweet from Darren Rovell. He is a former ESPN guy who now works for CNBC, and is considered the top expert on all things about NCAA finances. The dude knows his stuff.



HE basically said that financially, best thing for Big XII and schools is to stay together. Also sighted an article on how superconferences bad for players and parents re:travel and missed classes.



Read them both here:

http://twitter.com/#!/darrenrovell" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

snoscythe wrote:
Where is all of this confidence in assurances from the BigXII coming from? didn't they all give each other assurances last year after CU and nebraska left? Didn't they all give each other assurances when they negotiated their new TV deal? Seeing how much stability those assurances really provide just one year later with aTm headed out the door and OU and OSU playing brinksmanship games, why are BYU fans still infatuated with the idea that more assurances will brung stability to the BigXII? Do you all also think that more stimulus is all we need to get the economy back on track? BigXII assurances have about the same track record.



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I am never sure if you are talking to me or not. I don't think anybody said there is confidence in the big12 sticking together. I certainly am not infatuated with the idea of big12 stability. the big12 is a mess. No question.



However it is clearly in byu's bets interest that it stick together so as to avoid super conferences becaues in my opinion super conferences means byu sports become relagated to division 2 and may even just go away (cost will not be worth the reward at that point)



So I don't get what your problem is with byu fans who want the big12 to stay together. If it doesn't we may not even have a need for cougarcorner in a few years.

jonnylingo wrote:

The longer this mess goes on the uglier the Big12 looks. Do we really want to be affiliated with a league where every team leaks information to make other teams look bad. Where catastrophic events are pushed right up to the very deadline and then taken off the table (for a few weeks)?



I agree with Boise. BYU has less to fear than than a lot of people are really worried about, and since no one has ever shown that being a part is the only guaranteed way to get into a Super Conference (which in my other post I showed why they wont exist) I'm not sure of the reason to get involved with such a dysfunctional group.

the reason is it is the only way to stop being left out, in other words, if big 12 dissolves its is super conferences we go and I see no way that we are a part of those. that is why we want to be involved in my opinion. if we can help save big12 we might avoid super conferences.

How does being in the Big12 help get into a super conference? the only possible chance is the Big12 becoming a super conference itself, which I think is less likely than just about every scenario under the sun.

hawkwing wrote:

hawkwing wrote:
The longer this mess goes on the uglier the Big12 looks. Do we really want to be affiliated with a league where every team leaks information to make other teams look bad. Where catastrophic events are pushed right up to the very deadline and then taken off the table (for a few weeks)?



I agree with Boise. BYU has less to fear than than a lot of people are really worried about, and since no one has ever shown that being a part is the only guaranteed way to get into a Super Conference (which in my other post I showed why they wont exist) I'm not sure of the reason to get involved with such a dysfunctional group.

the reason is it is the only way to stop being left out, in other words, if big 12 dissolves its is super conferences we go and I see no way that we are a part of those. that is why we want to be involved in my opinion. if we can help save big12 we might avoid super conferences.

How does being in the Big12 help get into a super conference? the only possible chance is the Big12 becoming a super conference itself, which I think is less likely than just about every scenario under the sun.

I don't know if it does. In fact it probably doesn't. But if BYU in the big12 will help avoid super conferences happening in the first place, then it makes sense to go.



I guess the only argument I can think of is that you would be forging relationships with people who could help get you in, namely Texas, and Notre Dame. That is nothing to get excited about obviously.

Hawk



I answer your question before but repeat it here since you asked it again. If BYU was in the Big 12 with TX and Okie and proved they belonged by going undefeated in 2012, BYU would play for the NC next year. If BYU performed and won the NC, it would become much more difficult to leave BYU out of super conference even if Big 12 folded a year later. Now if the Big 12 lasted a few years and BYU repeated as NCs in 2013 with Jake Heaps winning the Heisman - it would be impossible for the BCS or Supers to ignore us if Big imploded.



Now that raises a much different issue. BYU has not gone undefeated in over 25 years even against weak schedules. So maybe we ought to rethink our I'll-conceived plans to raise our LOC even if that results in 2 for 1s and un-neutral neutral sites in addition to tougher opponents.



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Yesterday I posted parts of the email Kenneth Starr sent to Baylor fans. In it, he references financial obligations teams have incurred post-Fox deal. Today, ESPN added to this by outlining financial obligations schools have incurred as a result of thei FOX TV deal, including bonds for building projects. The lawsuits from a collapse would be huge because damages can easily be proven, and this is the main reason the Big XII will survive. A&M, the SEC, OU, OSU and the PAC will be in the line of fire for MAJOR damages if those contracts get cancelled and future guarantees are lost. Read it here:



"Iowa State went ahead with $40 million worth of projects after the Fox contract was stamped and took out $40 million in bonds based on the deal. Iowa State has invested $5 million in a new video board, $20 million in a football building and an estimated $15 million in a sports complex for track, soccer and softball. The video board project began in July for this football season and the other two projects are under construction.



"The taxpayers of Iowa can't pay if those bonds fall through," a source said Wednesday. "These are real questions, real situations. I'm not sure how (Iowa State) could waive those (legal) rights (to sue the SEC)."



http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6970677/big-12-schools-face-economic-impact-shuffling" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Someone needs to work in a class action lawsuit on behalf of fans whose season ticket values will plummet - the ones that have invested and held them for generations and joined boosters clubs to keep them and all the cable and satellite sports subscriptions people may have committed to for 2-3 years with cancellation penalties - and now their team is out. Independent Entrepreneurial argus could go after these - maybe filed in that incestuous hotbed of class action litigation with good ole boy judges in Beaumont Texas. I heard those guys actually let investors invest in their lawsuits. Depositions with broadly stated topics could turn up some interesting internal documents at conference offices and Athletic departments. Sounds sketchy, but I have seen pretty sketchy ones filed there and settled out of court. Fans would probably be given discounts on future team merchandise purchases - attorneys get paid cash of course.



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Cougarbib2 wrote:
maybe filed in that incestuous hotbed of class action litigation with good ole boy judges in Beaumont Texas.

E.D. Tex. rocks!