Conference Realignment - not about who has the Best Team

That is the reality. It has very little to do with the quality of a given football program. PAC grabbed Utah and Colorado. Those were not the two best football teams to be had - BYU and Boise State would have provided better competition on the field of play. But Boise State is in the middle of a very large potatoe field and BYU's sponsor voted and led others to vote the "wrong" way on Proposition 8 in California.



But here is a better example. If you eliminated all of the nonsense, bravado, and noise, and had a factual debate of which conference put the best football teams on the football field since the start of the BCS, it would not be PAC 12 or Big 10+2. It just would not be. And yet - those are two of the three conferences that seem to be invincible and secure whether you deserve to be in them or not - yes I am talking about you Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, and Minnesota. I guess that is why they want to add Notre Dame so they can strengthen their position in Indiana. I digress.



The two best football conferences based on results on the field would have to be the SEC and the Big XII-2 before losing Nebraska. Even the recent MWC before the last shake-up and especially plus BSU would have come in ahead of Big East, ACC, and maybe even PAC and Big 10+1. And yet - which conference is on the brink of extinction? Big XII-n.



So it comes down to political correctness and geography as the latter relates to population and television markets. That is it - pure and simple. And yes, some programs do get in based on rivalries and relationships and politics providing a ride on the proverbial old coat-tails. Yes, I am talking about you Baylor, Okie State, and K State.



It is those darn deserts, potatoe fields, and prairies. They are just too big. That is it. The Church could re-instate polygamy to try to get the population numbers up in the Utah market - but that isn't going to happen and would take a couple of generations to have a big effect even if it did happen.



So, unless the Church adopts Governor / Ambassador / Presidential Candidate Huntsman's view on Civil Unions - BYU may get left out because the PAC 10 is the only geographical fit if the Big XII-2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 dies.



Independence > MWC because of the MTN - so we are doing the best we can.



Go Cougs

PS - don't accept any offer until it is actually made

This whole superconference talk has put a damper on the football sesaon thus far. I am trying to focus on the battle and ignore the war. That has been pretty difficult for me to do. Make no mistake, if we lose the war and are left out of these mythical superconferences, we will be the Toledo of the west, not the Notre Dame west. Independence has been great to show the country our worth and the fact that we are mentioned so often in realignment talk is not insignificant. I just don't see where we end up if Oklahoma / Texas goes to the Pac 12 and the dominos start to fall. I know it has all been rumors thus far but I just can't seem to get too optimistic about future. I think I need another post from Lawboy to give me some hope.

I got nothing. The OU moves have changed everything. Before, they had given some assurances, but apparently they changed their minds. Sill up in the air however, and the biggest issue that could stall things now are lawsuits over breach of contract, and the resulting financial losses that could occur as a result. Those legit claims could be enough to stall the train until 2014-2015 at least. After that, anyone's guess.



Baylor still the wild card in all of this. Baylor Pres. Kenneth starr sent an email out today that contained this:

"At the heart of our concern are the solemn conference agreements signed in good faith by all current members of the Big 12 Conference. As a result of these agreements, and the guaranteed revenue associated with them, a number of our fellow Big 12 institutions have already made binding and significant commitments of financial resources that will have dramatic consequences on their campuses."



In other words, mess up our financial guarantees, and we sue you for breach and resulting damages, which would be huge. That fact alone could stall the conference expansion, because $$$ is driving it, and no one wants to lose $$$ to litigation.

The motivating factor for realignments in college football has always boiled down to money and pride. But mostly money. Winning and prestige etc. only play a part insomuch as they increase the revenue.

The main driver for the coach and maybe less so, the AD is probably odds of winning a NC. We will see how Nebraska does, but ironically two leading contenders this season are A&M and Okie. I think the decision to stick at ten teams a year ago was at least partly in recognition that a playoff game in conference was just one more thing to get in the way of a NC opportunity. IDK if A&M and Okie play each other this season, but I hope they do not and end up undefeated and play each other for the NC and wonder why they left the conference that gave them the best odds of getting to the NC game. Then, I hope they never get to another one after they leave, assuming they do leave. Texas may be the only Big XII power that realizes that NCs in the end bring money indirectly. They are why fans buy season tickets and watch all of their games on tv and buy merchandise. Never sell your ability to create legacy and increase your brand.



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You could have saved yourself alot of typing by just saying "see: Colorado to PAC12"



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nothing quite like suing your partners to get them to stay....



kind of like suing your employer for wrongful job termination. hostile work environment anyone?

Cougarbib2 wrote:



But here is a better example. If you eliminated all of the nonsense, bravado, and noise, and had a factual debate of which conference put the best football teams on the football field since the start of the BCS, it would not be PAC 12 or Big 10+2. It just would not be. And yet - those are two of the three conferences that seem to be invincible and secure whether you deserve to be in them or not - yes I am talking about you Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, and Minnesota. I guess that is why they want to add Notre Dame so they can strengthen their position in Indiana. I digress.

Bowl winning pct. from 1998-2010



MWC .630

Big East .615

SEC .580

Pac-10 .492

Big 12. 489

ACC .477

Big 10 .461



Nonconference winning pct vs. teams that FINISHED ranked from 1998-2010



SEC .401

Big 10 .336

Pac-10 .335

ACC .291

Big 12 .276



Nonconference winning pct vs. the other major conference teams and Notre Dame from 1998-2010



SEC .531

Pac-10 .521

Big 10 .494

Big 12 .489



So the Big 12 isn't as good and the Pac-10 and Big 10 playing the other BCS conferences, or good teams, and they aren't as good as the Pac-10 in bowl games. But the Big 12 is soooo much better than the Pac-10 or Big 10 in the BCS era? Riiiiiight.

You left out one very important - the only important - fact relative to this post. Who has been in the NC game. I didn't ask who won it or deserved to be in it. The whole point is that Big 12 provides an easy path to it.



So for Texas to show up in the NC game, given the abysmal OOC record, makes the path look pretty easy.



Now MWC - zip and still counting. WAC same. Conf USA no appearances. I will admit Ohio State had an easy path, but when Nebraska beats them in the first Conf Champ game, this will change. I will give you USC and Ducky - but when Ducky upsets undefeated USC in their first championship game - wait - Ducky and USC will already have losses.



So A&M and Oklahoma have a pretty good shot this year.



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Since the predecessors of what became the BCS, it has been about a semi-annual event to have Nebraska, Oklahoma, or Texas play in the NC determining game. It is almost an annual event for a Big 12 team to be in the discussion. A&M got knocked out of a NC birth when it was upset in the Big XII Championship game. I think that us part of why Big was happy to stay at 10 teams.



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