Byu's future is not good

So, if superconferences do come, and it's looking like those odds are better than even, I just don't see any likely way that this is going to turn out well for BYU.

Even if we join the big twelve for next year, the conference will dissolve in three years. What then?



Pac 16: Geographic fit, but we will never be invited due to bigotry/whatever

Sec16: Geographically poor, plus they'd never invite us anyhow

Big ten(16): Why would they invite us, when there would be at least 5-6 teams they'd want before us?

BigEast-Acc16: Geographically poor, and we'd never get an invite.



Can anyone make a reasonable case why any of these conferences would invite us?

It looks like we're stuck in independence. I don't think this would it make it that much more difficult to schedule 3-5 good teams a year, but I do think it could hurt our recruiting. Would kids rather go to super conference teams, or Byu and its questionable independence? Hope someone can show me the way, I think recently doing a psychiatry rotation has made me depressed

Super conferences pose a great great challenge to BYU...All is not complete gloom however. Superconference do not necessarily make things better for ND or TX or OK...Perhaps they will see this and not give in. That said, an independent BYU is still better than a MWC BYU in a superconference environment, no? And here's how to get over the depression: watch BYU beat TX Saturday!

valleus wrote:
I don't think this would it make it that much more difficult to schedule 3-5 good teams a year, but I do think it could hurt our recruiting.

I think that's true, but BYU has more to assuage this fear than any other school that gets left out. We'll probably lose more recruits to Utah and other schools, but some kids are always going to want to come to BYU.



But you're right. If the super-conference thing happens in the next year or two, and some of our recruits on missions come home and switch schools, I'll have a hard time resenting them for it.

I'm glad someone finally started a thread about this.



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snoscythe wrote:
I'm glad someone finally started a thread about this.



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:lol: :D :crazy: :lol: :crazy:



I wholeheartedly disagree that BYU is on the brink of a series of events that will lead to the loss of the football program...I'm just too tired of the subject to discuss it at length...

ABYUFAN wrote:

I'm glad someone finally started a thread about this.



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:lol: :D :crazy: :lol: :crazy:



I wholeheartedly disagree that BYU is on the brink of a series of events that will lead to the loss of the football program...I'm just too tired of the subject to discuss it at length...

We are not going to lose the football program. But, if 4 Super COnferences get formed, we have more downside than upside unless we find a way to be in one of them. Getting in one of them is a long-shot whther we are Independent or in the Big 12 - but Big 12 slightly increases our chances becasue if we execute while in the Big 12, we could win the NC, win a Heisman or two, etc., etc. becasue of the legitimacy of the BIg 12. Of course I am talking about a Big 12 with Texas and Okie.



But there could be more than 4 SUper Conferences. There could be 5, 6, 7, or 8. There could be access to BCS outside of the Supers, etc.



If we get acces to the BCS similar to what no AQ get today, it is actually easier to get to a BCS Bowl as a non-AQ - just ask the proven BCS Busters. We would jus tneed to quit giving 2fers in our misguided quest to play anyone anywhere, and go undefeated. We hav enot been abl eto go undefetaed for over 25 years. We need to make a schedule that gives us a shot to do that - a real good shot. THen do it two or three times in quick succession - ala BSU and to a lesser extent, Utah and TCU. Then you are going to get a shot at a BCS NC.



But then we could do that in the WAC, MWC, COnf USA by the same formula. THe MWC would have actually been a great platform to get to the NC game for us but the TV contract was unbearable. So Indy is better than MWC becasue of that contract Vs what we have now.



Big 12, with Tex and Okie is better than Indy becasue of scheduling and we should dumy down the OOC if we go Big 12.



Whether we like it or not, the most stable situations relative to the future are PAC, Big 10, and SEC. Anything else is dicey.



THis is th eproblem ofr us and most schools west of the Mississippi and not on the West Coast: Pull out a map of the USA - get one color coded for populatoin concentration. Population drives TV revenue. BIngo. Eastern US has it in spades over the rest of the country, but the Midwest (Mich, Ill, Ohio, especially have a packed house. West Coast (SD, LA, SF, Seattle, Portland, especially are loaded. That is where the money driving College football realignment is. We and most of the BIg 12, unfortunately have really big spread out states with few large cities and sparse population. Except Texas (Dallas / Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, you know - Cities big enough to have NFL teams or NBA teams, etc.).



Alignment has very little to do with who has the best fotball team. Otherwise BYU and BSU would be in the PAC where they belong.

If superconferences do come, there will almost certainly be 4 of 16 each, and I just don't see any remote way we could get into any. If there were 18 in each, for some odd reason, this really does increase our chances. But that's just wishful thinking.



I don't want to be a downer, but I think we just got to call a spade a spade. BYU will be diminished in the era of super conferences. Byu recruiting will be hurt. To have winning seasons, we will play less impressive teams.



However, I don't see this is all bad. No matter how it might irk us to say it, the primary mission of BYU football (and basketball) is not to win national championships. The primary mission is positive exposure for the Church. BYU can still do that as a weakened independent.

valleus wrote:
If superconferences do come, there will almost certainly be 4 of 16 each, and I just don't see any remote way we could get into any. If there were 18 in each, for some odd reason, this really does increase our chances. But that's just wishful thinking.



I don't want to be a downer, but I think we just got to call a spade a spade. BYU will be diminished in the era of super conferences. Byu recruiting will be hurt. To have winning seasons, we will play less impressive teams.



However, I don't see this is all bad. No matter how it might irk us to say it, the primary mission of BYU football (and basketball) is not to win national championships. The primary mission is positive exposure for the Church. BYU can still do that as a weakened independent.

Why is 16-team conferences a foregone conclusion? I can't see current BCS teams being left out of the equation. Unless these are going to be football only associations. If they are football only associations, then BYU will be okay. If they're not, then BYU will be okay because BYU would be a no-brainer decision/addition in 18-team conferences.



Either way, I'm not losing any sleep over it.

I wonder if 16 team conferences are likely, but maybe I don't get it--if money is what rules, and a 12 team conference can have a championship game and one or two BCS bowls to attend, then why go to 16? The TV pie seems to be divided more ways, even with the "BCS" games, and frankly in a 16 team conference there seems like there would be fewer compelling, high TV ratings games to watch

SpiffCoug wrote:

If superconferences do come, there will almost certainly be 4 of 16 each, and I just don't see any remote way we could get into any. If there were 18 in each, for some odd reason, this really does increase our chances. But that's just wishful thinking.



I don't want to be a downer, but I think we just got to call a spade a spade. BYU will be diminished in the era of super conferences. Byu recruiting will be hurt. To have winning seasons, we will play less impressive teams.



However, I don't see this is all bad. No matter how it might irk us to say it, the primary mission of BYU football (and basketball) is not to win national championships. The primary mission is positive exposure for the Church. BYU can still do that as a weakened independent.

Why is 16-team conferences a foregone conclusion? I can't see current BCS teams being left out of the equation. Unless these are going to be football only associations. If they are football only associations, then BYU will be okay. If they're not, then BYU will be okay because BYU would be a no-brainer decision/addition in 18-team conferences.



Either way, I'm not losing any sleep over it.

I think I may have lost about a half second of sleep over this last night. Guess that makes me a better fan than you. :P

BoiseBYU:

Every scenario I've read about superconferences says that if they do occur, there will be 16. Each superconf would be divided into 2 leagues of 8 each. I am with you, I don't necessarily get the logic of superconferences, but if all the movers and pushers are saying they're inevitable, perhaps they see something we don't. And I could certainly see current BCS teams getting shut out. Who cares about iowa, kansas state, conn, maryland, etc?

I still like BYU's position. BYU is teamed up with ESPN for the next 8 years. BYU has a very powerful partner.



Who cares about those teams? Those teams do. You think they're just going to sit idly by and watch themselves get shut out of a new super-conference era?

valleus wrote:
BoiseBYU:

Every scenario I've read about superconferences says that if they do occur, there will be 16. Each superconf would be divided into 2 leagues of 8 each. I am with you, I don't necessarily get the logic of superconferences, but if all the movers and pushers are saying they're inevitable, perhaps they see something we don't. And I could certainly see current BCS teams getting shut out. Who cares about iowa, kansas state, conn, maryland, etc?

I see where you are coming from and agree. I think Spiff is right too that that BYU's indpendence puts BYU in a better spot than, say an Iowa State....If I were them I'd fear SuperC even more than BYU...

The bottom feeder BCS teams have to fear super conferences. With all of that money over the years they should habe been upgrading their programs to be competitive. Alas they didn't and now they are in trouble.



In the worst case we don't make it in. I think the have nots need to form one huge conference and put the best 12 teams in it. It could follow the soccer division idea and move teams in and out each year to get the best 12 teams. That would improve their SOS and give them their best chance to be relevant.



This year the conference probably would have BYU, BSU, Hawaii, Houston, Air Force, SDSU, UCF, Tulsa, SMU, Navy, S Miss and Nevada. Or something close to this. You would have 3 or 4 potentially ranked teams and all would be in the top 80 of rankings (half top 40).

BoiseBYU wrote:
I wonder if 16 team conferences are likely, but maybe I don't get it--if money is what rules, and a 12 team conference can have a championship game and one or two BCS bowls to attend, then why go to 16? The TV pie seems to be divided more ways, even with the "BCS" games, and frankly in a 16 team conference there seems like there would be fewer compelling, high TV ratings games to watch

They will only add teams that deliver new markets. Thus why everybody wants Texas but has less interest in other Big 12 teams. It is why Texas gets special treatment in the Big 12.



BYU was undervalued and difficult to value. PAC did not see a compelling need to have two Utah teams so they took the one they do not hate. PAC and others do not know how to value and monetize BYU national fanbase. ESPN provided part of the answer to that and in this down stock market, BYU stock has risen considerably.



We just need to keep moving and building to prove it can be monetized. If we are not winning, that will be tough to do. If we are winning and ranked, fans of other teams above or below us will tune in to see if we are legit. That drives ratings.



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Perhaps I'm naive, but I still wonder about the B1G coming after BYU if superconferences are formed. It would be a good way for them to expand west, draw in a bunch of non-east coast money and TV sets, and they may need to change their academic expectations anyhow if they want to get to 16 quality football teams.

A few reasons I'm not that worried.



In the world of four 16 team super conferences, that puts a number of current BCS teams out in the cold. This will end in law suits (think Baylor, with a well known tradition of lawyers that will sue anything they can). These will also be schools who will have information relating to all the illegal practices that the BCS is currently and has previously been a part of. So it will be sued out of existence.



Second, super conferences just wont work. They wont be good for fans, they wont be good for student athletes, they will eventually crumble under their own weight.



Third, if they do occur, that leaves some darn good football teams that can finally create a real set of conferences and have a playoff, the way God intended, with BYU to dominate them.

hawkwing wrote:
A few reasons I'm not that worried.



In the world of four 16 team super conferences, that puts a number of current BCS teams out in the cold. This will end in law suits (think Baylor, with a well known tradition of lawyers that will sue anything they can). These will also be schools who will have information relating to all the illegal practices that the BCS is currently and has previously been a part of. So it will be sued out of existence.



Second, super conferences just wont work. They wont be good for fans, they wont be good for student athletes, they will eventually crumble under their own weight.



Third, if they do occur, that leaves some darn good football teams that can finally create a real set of conferences and have a playoff, the way God intended, with BYU to dominate them.

Hawk this is pretty much the way I see things. I remember the huge WAC conference everyone thought was so grand (back in 96). The conference just couldn't support itself, and we took most of our original WAC members to form the MWC.



The idea of superconferences and all the hoopla regarding them is caused by the greed of a few conferences who are looking at huge TV deals. I say be careful what you wish for. Even the BCS conferences have their weak sisters.



Conferences should be somewhat regional and comprised of Universities that have similar values.

There is so much breath being wasted about the future of the Big 12, the BCS, and BYU that I wonder how there's oxygen left for the rest of us.



The odds of superconferences forming anytime soon and BYU being left out are 100 times less than Oklahoma and Texas coming to their senses and staying in a better conference than the Pac 10.2 that Oklahoma and Texas still control.



A lot can change in 3-5 years of Big 12 membership and the landscape can drastically change. You dont' sit on your hands and wait; you jump in and assert yourself in that time to prove that you did and do belong.



The most likely present scenario is A+M leaving after Baylor and others get assurances from OU and Texas that they'll stay and then BYU is invited. Whether BYU accepts will be based on whatever assurances they get from OU Texas and the Big 12.



The reason superconferences will not form quickly, is that NBC(Versus), CBS, ABC(ESPN), Fox etc. all want a piece of the pie and they're the ones paying the big bucks right now. NONE OF THEM WANT TO NEGOTIATE NEW TV CONTRACTS WITH SUPERCONFERENCES. They want what they've already agreed to pay for.



This is all muchado about nothing, BYU is in a good position and anyone that doesn't think so, just doesn't see the money stream. I would much rather be in BYUs shoes right now as far as leverage and the future than I would in Utahs shoes; in particular because BYU has more leverage and a much better sports program right now and in the near future where BYU football is poised to explode on the national scene either this year or next.

craigoscarson wrote:
A verbal agreement is as useless as the paper it's written on... only more useless is this thread or a Ute bank account.



There is so much breath being wasted about the future of the Big 12, the BCS, and BYU that I wonder how there's oxygen left for the rest of us.



The odds of superconferences forming anytime soon and BYU being left out are 100 times less than Oklahoma and Texas coming to their senses and staying in a better conference than the Pac 10.2 that Oklahoma and Texas still control.



A lot can change in 3-5 years of Big 12 membership and the landscape can drastically change. You dont' sit on your hands and wait; you jump in and assert yourself in that time to prove that you did and do belong.



The most likely present scenario is A+M leaving after Baylor and others get assurances from OU and Texas that they'll stay and then BYU is invited. Whether BYU accepts will be based on whatever assurances they get from OU Texas and the Big 12.



The reason superconferences will not form quickly, is that NBC(Versus), CBS, ABC(ESPN), Fox etc. all want a piece of the pie and they're the ones paying the big bucks right now. NONE OF THEM WANT TO NEGOTIATE NEW TV CONTRACTS WITH SUPERCONFERENCES. They want what they've already agreed to pay for.



This is all muchado about nothing, BYU is in a good position and anyone that doesn't think so, just doesn't see the money stream. I would much rather be in BYUs shoes right now as far as leverage and the future than I would in Utahs shoes; in particular because BYU has more leverage and a much better sports program right now and in the near future where BYU football is poised to explode on the national scene either this year or next.

Thanks. Your insight helps. Perhaps worthless to you, the issue has sure been on my mind and with the volume I read in the media elsewhere, I've wanted to know more and understand better.