SpiffCoug's Spots of Speculations -- The Texas Game

If you haven't read Spiff's analysis of games before, you're missing out. He is one of the best at analyzing the game that I have ever read.



Just a small taste...

Against an offensive line that returned 77 starts, the Cougars pass rush was highly effective. When Ole Miss benched their starter on the final drive of the first half, the replacement completed two of his first three passes. But then the rush came and he hit on just 11 of his final 22 attempts. Oh and there was that small matter of a sack, forced fumble and game-winning defensive touchdown late in the fourth quarter as well.



The Rebels never had a good handle on what the BYU defensive line was doing. They never got a good push in the running game, averaging just 2.2 yards per rush. And their offensive line was supposed to be their strength. They averaged more than 200 yards a game and five yards a carry in the SEC last year. Their experienced and talented linemen were unable to contain BYU’s defensive front seven.



Texas doesn’t return the same level of talent or experience that Ole Miss. They returned just 36 offensive line starts from last year. Kyle Van Noy and Jordan Pendleton should expect to find themselves in the backfield on myriad occasions, blowing up plays. The stellar play of down linemen like Ethyn Manumaleuna, Romney Fuga and Hebron Fangupo should also continue to control the line of scrimmage. This control will allow the inside linebackers and the safeties in run support to further stuff the Longhorn rush game.

Link: http://cougarcorner.com/exclusives/stories/20110908/spiffcougs-spots-speculation-texas-game" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I do agree; he IS good!!! His memory and recall of games and plays is very, very top notch.

Good Show ole' boy!



More articles like these, and you'll find our prediction game will start to hover around your 'expert' picks.



I hope Hawk is tweeting links to these since they're a VERY good read.

Great excerpt. Good stuff Spiff.

So, why are the majority of fans so reluctant to predict a win? From languaging I'm seeing and hearing of "long-shot" to "it's Texas", to "we can't win both Olemiss and UT,"

I am calling out all doubters. From the prediction game it would appear that most are picking byu in a narrow upset. But I think there are some who are afraid. Maybe I'll eat some crow Saturday, but analyses like Spiff's lead me to believe that we know stuff that the odds makers and Bib doesn't. And that its not just effects of the kool-aid.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

BYU may well dominate the LOS, but it's the deep routes that I'm afraid of. Doesn't matter if they can't run the ball if they can keep beating you deep.



If their QB can't make the passes or our corners dominate the WRs, then I like our chances. This game is in Austin, a very safe place for Texas to play.

CAFB_04-12 wrote:
BYU may well dominate the LOS, but it's the deep routes that I'm afraid of. Doesn't matter if they can't run the ball if they can keep beating you deep.



If their QB can't make the passes or our corners dominate the WRs, then I like our chances. This game is in Austin, a very safe place for Texas to play.

If you can't run, you can't win. You can't throw deep every play. You have to be able to connect on the short and intermediate stuff as well. I'm not sure Gilbert can do it consistently enough to beat BYU.



In fact, since Bronco took over the defense only four of the nine opponents have had PERs above 100 and only one (TCU) has reached the magic "140" number.

I just keep thinking back to Tulsa from several years ago, where BYU was beat constantly deep and gave up tons of points.



Maybe I'm just nervous to go to a stadium of 100,000+.

We lost to Tulsa because we couldn't stop the run (they had 100+ yards rushing) or the pass (an astonishing 209.89 PER). If Gilbert can throw the ball as well as Tulsa did that day, I'll be very surprised and very impressed.

The difference between Tulsa then and Texas now is Tulsa had a good quarterback with experience. The difference between our defense then and our defense now is our pass rush. With a good pass rush, we can force Gilbert to make bad throws downfield since our pass rush can get to him on almost any down we wish.

Great Analysis Spiff,



I posted it over on barkingcarnival. Hope you don't mind.

Please.

Hookem, am I wrong in thinking Longhorn fans hope the game doesn't rest on how well Gilbert plays?

SpiffCoug wrote:
Hookem, am I wrong in thinking Longhorn fans hope the game doesn't rest on how well Gilbert plays?

Not at all. Gilbert is a big question mark. Has talent, but mentally isn't there yet, and some are wondering if he ever will be. Great kid, but seems to lose it under the spotlight. Being QB at Texas isn't easy. The fans can be very unforgiving.



As I said, last night, if Gilbert shows any sign of a meltdown, Texas will pull him and go with a McCoy/ Ash combo. From all reports they've been trying to prepare for this. Besides, Ash has a special package just for him anyway. You'll see Ash anyway, whether Gilbert caves, or not.



I think the coaches are just looking for a mistake free game from Gilbert. He's going to get pressured, and he's going to get hit. It's how he responds is what they're looking at. They're not going to throw him to the wolves, as many of you suspect, and just have him sit back in the pocket waiting to get hit. They're going to try to get yards in many different ways. Think Boise St, it's about execution.



We're going to run some wildcat, and try to spread the field as you so poetically describe. You're going to see a lot of differrent looks, from a lot of different formations. They're going to try and tire your front 7 by making them run sideline to sideline, and then they'll come at them with a couple of talented (but young) big backs. Pay attention to who's on the field, that will give you a good indication of what to look for. Texas has lots of young speed, and they're going to try and "spread the wealth" around.



One other thing, I can't emphasize enough, that our front 7 on D is pretty good too. Don't underestimate their ability to run, and cover space in a hurry. Diaz was the DC at Miss St last year for one season. His D held that Ole Miss rushing attack, who's second leading rusher was the QB Masoli, to just 65 yards. He coaches a bend but don't break defense, and pressures a lot, probably more than Muschamp ever did.

Even though I think I called for 45 points, I could really see another defensive battle.

SpiffCoug wrote:

BYU may well dominate the LOS, but it's the deep routes that I'm afraid of. Doesn't matter if they can't run the ball if they can keep beating you deep.



If their QB can't make the passes or our corners dominate the WRs, then I like our chances. This game is in Austin, a very safe place for Texas to play.

If you can't run, you can't win. You can't throw deep every play. You have to be able to connect on the short and intermediate stuff as well. I'm not sure Gilbert can do it consistently enough to beat BYU.



In fact, since Bronco took over the defense only four of the nine opponents have had PERs above 100 and only one (TCU) has reached the magic "140" number.

BYU busted that myth 25-30 years ago. And I'm not saying you're wrong about the game analysis, in fact, I think you're right and feel that the game will rest on Gilbert when the run gets stuffed. Which makes me confident BYU has a decent shot. Gilbert is no 1980s BYU QB.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Even though I think I called for 45 points, I could really see another defensive battle.

I agree. Overall, I really like your analysis though. Good job, and very creative.

If BYU gets the ball first, here's what I would do if I were Doman. BYU hardly even went long against Ole Miss (not sure why), everything was underneath, and Texas knows that's the BYU history, lots of short passes. If I was Doman, I would do the unexpected and on the first series I would go long or medium long three times. If any one of those is successful, then those corners and linebackers know they have to play the pass and that BYU can definitely throw the long ball. I don't mean that's all BYU should do, but I would do it on the first series.



The other thing I would do is run my trick plays in the first quarter, maybe even the first drive, get on the scoreboard and give the defense some meat to eat!



BYU can win this game, but they won't win with offensive play like last week.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Hookem, am I wrong in thinking Longhorn fans hope the game doesn't rest on how well Gilbert plays?

Did I interpret your question correctly? Looking at it now, I'm not so sure that I gave you what you were looking for.

Spiff thanks for doing this. You do great work. I feel optimistic



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Hookem wrote:

Hookem, am I wrong in thinking Longhorn fans hope the game doesn't rest on how well Gilbert plays?

Did I interpret your question correctly? Looking at it now, I'm not so sure that I gave you what you were looking for.

You did. I just wanted to make sure my questioning of Gilbert wasn't completely from left field.