What Happens Now?

I decided to stop talking about conference expansion for a few days leading up to the game, but now that it's Monday, I would like to know what everyone is thinking will happen given the developments at OU and now apparently Texas.



Here is what I think has happened, and what I think will happen going forward. I think an unofficial offer was given to BYU. BYU asked for a few conditions that were probably agreed to pretty easily, but then they asked for contractual assurances from the other members of the conference, specifically UT and OU, and the promises given were not sufficient for BYU to jump with all of their sports. BYU countered with joining as football only (maybe softball because they are losing their home next year) and keeping their other sports in the WCC for a few years until there was a show of stability, because if the Big 12 falls apart they could still go Indy and wouldn't have burned any bridges.



OU sees this and knows that if they can't entice a "mid-major" to jump in full speed, the conference has some credibility issues out there. So they decide to look at all options, including changing conferences. OU will either go Pac-whatever or make their own network like Texas did last year. Texas will then have to decide to follow OU to Pac or keep their conference together. If OU goes, OSU goes too.



While I wouldn't want BYU to join a dying conference, I don't want them on the outside looking in on the super-conferences. The only shot at BYU being a part of the super-conferences that I can see is joining the Big 12 and helping to keep them together.



I have no inside sources and no basis for any of this, other than what has been discussed and following the time line. I would appreciate others thoughts on this.

My thought is that greed/money/egos are ruining the greatest sport on earth, and that things don't look very good for the future of byu athletics right now if cfb Armageddon happens. It makes me sick to my stomach when I think about it so I try not to.



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You know, if the above really has happened, Im not very concerned.

If the Super-conferences happen, what will be the driving force? THe BCS? Nope.

THE MEDIA MONEY. Playoff- maybe. In which case, it bodes well for us for the very reasons that ESPN finds us appealing. We have enough of a significant footprint and following, AND legit Network, that we have attractiveness. I dont think we should panic about any result. We have a good gig, with yes, a few scheduling wrinkles to work out, but we have exposure and increased money--not that its about the money, completely. Among the options, such as we have speculated, I am ok with where we are. And quite frankly if all of this is correct, then good for TH, CS, and the Board (not that they need my approval).

If we joined the Big12 and we had 9 conference games. We would have only 3 OOC games. with Utah and Utah St. we would only have one game left. How would we be able to go East or to the South for a game?

scott715 wrote:
If we joined the Big12 and we had 9 conference games. We would have only 3 OOC games. with Utah and Utah St. we would only have one game left. How would we be able to go East or to the South for a game?

Alternate years and play Vandy and Duke. Then play for the NC.

dmcougar wrote:
You know, if the above really has happened, Im not very concerned.

If the Super-conferences happen, what will be the driving force? THe BCS? Nope.

THE MEDIA MONEY. Playoff- maybe. In which case, it bodes well for us for the very reasons that ESPN finds us appealing. We have enough of a significant footprint and following, AND legit Network, that we have attractiveness.

Call me one of little faith, but I think a few 7-5 or 6-6 seasons as an independent might makes us a little less appealing, despite the significant following. Based on my interaction with the Golden Domers I know, I'd say that BYU fans are a bit more fickle and frugal than Notre Dame fans because the fanbase is more loyal and more willing to demonstrate that loyalty with their wallets. Notre Dame can weather a decade of mediocrity and still be a valuable commodity (apparently), but I'm less confident that BYU could do the same.



I have a lot of confidence in Coach Mendenhall, but for independence to work long term, BYU has to keep compiling 10-win seasons.

Mingjai wrote:

You know, if the above really has happened, Im not very concerned.

If the Super-conferences happen, what will be the driving force? THe BCS? Nope.

THE MEDIA MONEY. Playoff- maybe. In which case, it bodes well for us for the very reasons that ESPN finds us appealing. We have enough of a significant footprint and following, AND legit Network, that we have attractiveness.

Call me one of little faith, but I think a few 7-5 or 6-6 seasons as an independent might makes us a little less appealing, despite the significant following. Based on my interaction with the Golden Domers I know, I'd say that BYU fans are a bit more fickle and frugal than Notre Dame fans because the fanbase is more loyal and more willing to demonstrate that loyalty with their wallets. Notre Dame can weather a decade of mediocrity and still be a valuable commodity (apparently), but I'm less confident that BYU could do the same.



I have a lot of confidence in Coach Mendenhall, but for independence to work long term, BYU has to keep compiling 10-win seasons.

This

scott715 wrote:
If we joined the Big12 and we had 9 conference games. We would have only 3 OOC games. with Utah and Utah St. we would only have one game left. How would we be able to go East or to the South for a game?

1. If they go back to 12, we might have 8 games, leaving four ooc.



2. Who says we would keep playing usu or even yewtah? I'm more than fine dropping those games forva big 12 invite.



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So if the Texas and Oklahoma schools to the PAC16 what happens to the rest. If that pushes a rush to 4 superconferences has anyone projected beyond PAC16 and SEC16 who that would be? Does the ACC take on enough teams to be the ACC16 or the Big16 bust up the Big Least? Seems like a lot of current BCS schools will end up on the outside looking in. Also independents BYU and ND. Then there is also Boise, Huston and a few other schools who are good enough to compete but left out of a superconference.

KYCoug wrote:
So if the Texas and Oklahoma schools to the PAC16 what happens to the rest. If that pushes a rush to 4 superconferences has anyone projected beyond PAC16 and SEC16 who that would be? Does the ACC take on enough teams to be the ACC16 or the Big16 bust up the Big Least? Seems like a lot of current BCS schools will end up on the outside looking in. Also independents BYU and ND. Then there is also Boise, Huston and a few other schools who are good enough to compete but left out of a superconference.

The garbage schools at the surviving conferences (I.e. Vandy, wsu, northwestern, Indiana, yewtah) will be safe, while the garbage schools at the dying conferences (I.e. Iowa state, baylor) will be on the outside looking in with the rest of us.



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Just the fact that NOTHING is being said in the media right now leads me to believe that something is still going on behind the scenes. IMO negotiations are still in the works.

Survival of the Big 12 seems to be BYU's only chance at joining one of the superconferences. If the Big 12 goes, and it looks like it might, then there is nowhere else for BYU to go. PAC-16 will never add BYU, Big 10 isn't an option, and the rest are too far away geographically to consider BYU. What gets me the most is that teams like Washington State, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and others will be part of the haves while teams that can compete like BYU, Houston, and Boise State will be part of the have-nots.

How exactly does joining the Big12 ensure BYU a part of the super conferences pies? How many super conference scenarios have we seen that say the Big12 becomes a super conference?



I think BYU has an equal chance of joining a super conference whether it joins the Big12 or not.



Someone show me differently, please.

Assuming Big 12 goes away, which superconference is BYU going to join or be invited to? Not Pac-16. Too much anti-BYU bias. Not Big 10. Seen as not academically up to par. Big East, ACC, SEC? Too far away. If Big 12 doesn't survive and doesn't become a superconference, which one of the remaining superconferences would BYU join? BYU won't be left out because they can't compete. They'll be left out because of bias and geography.

hawkwing wrote:
How exactly does joining the Big12 ensure BYU a part of the super conferences pies? How many super conference scenarios have we seen that say the Big12 becomes a super conference?



I think BYU has an equal chance of joining a super conference whether it joins the Big12 or not.



Someone show me differently, please.

The only shot of this happening is the Big 12 convincing Notre Dame to jump on board their super conference by allowing them their own network and TV contract. The Big 10 does not appear likely to allow Notre Dame to do that. Notre Dame has acknowledged the fact that they will likely have to join a super conference. If that happens Texas and Oklahoma don't jump to the Pac 12. Then by adding BYU, Pitt, Louisville, other misc Big East teams or possibly Boise State or Air Force you get to 16.



The key to all of this is the SEC has to be the first conference to go to 16. So you have Texas A&M and them probably Virginia Tech getting them to 14. The other rumors are Rutgers and Syracuse, or North Carolina and Florida State. At that point you have a race between the Big 12 and ACC to raid the Big East to get to 16. If all of this can happen before the Pac 12 starts expanding then you will see Notre Dame faced with a choice between the Big 12 and the Big 10. But if the Pac 12 has already taken OU and UT there really isn't much for Notre Dame to consider and they end up in the Big 10.



BYU's only chance to get in a super conference is if they are in a conference with Texas and Oklahoma. It doesn't necessarily have to be the Big 12, it just can't be the Pac 12. If Texas and Oklahoma join the Pac 12 and the remaining Big 12 and Big East football schools try to form their own conference BYU could probably get in with them, but that watered down of a conference probably wouldn't have the same standing that the Pac 16, SEC, ACC, and Big 10 have.

I simply do not see Texas and OU going to the PAC. Will not happen. Too many big fish in a small pond. I suppose the SEC handles it well enough, but not sure the PAC would. Those California schools have power issues just like Texas does.



I think the Big XII needs to get to 12, and that will stabilize things for a while. If they get to 10 only, talk will continue. Big XII needs to go to equal revenue sharing for 1st and 2nd tier media rights, then allow teams the ability to make money on their own 3rd tier rights, which allows Texas to make hay.

Lawboy wrote:
I simply do not see Texas and OU going to the PAC. Will not happen. Too many big fish in a small pond. I suppose the SEC handles it well enough, but not sure the PAC would. Those California schools have power issues just like Texas does.



I think the Big XII needs to get to 12, and that will stabilize things for a while. If they get to 10 only, talk will continue. Big XII needs to go to equal revenue sharing for 1st and 2nd tier media rights, then allow teams the ability to make money on their own 3rd tier rights, which allows Texas to make hay.

BYU needs to get buddy buddy with OU like we did with Texas and help them get their network going. If OU has their own network and a large contract like what Texas got for theirs it will be even more likely that they are not willing to give that up to go to the Pac 12 or SEC.

98BYUAlum wrote:
Assuming Big 12 goes away, which superconference is BYU going to join or be invited to? Not Pac-16. Too much anti-BYU bias. Not Big 10. Seen as not academically up to par. Big East, ACC, SEC? Too far away. If Big 12 doesn't survive and doesn't become a superconference, which one of the remaining superconferences would BYU join? BYU won't be left out because they can't compete. They'll be left out because of bias and geography.

Right, so my point is, joining the Big12 does not equal membership in a super conference for BYU. The only way BYU joins a super conference is if it joins the Big12 and the Big12 is some how miraculously able to over come it's internal problems and create it's own super conference.



If BYU joins the Big12 there is still a very high probability that they will be left out of the super conferences, because there's not much chance the Big12 can stabilize enough to become a super conference.



In fact, I'd put the odds of BYU in a super conference at exactly equal if they are in the Big12 or not. It all depends on what Texas, OU, and Notre Dame do.

Wickchad84087 wrote:



BYU needs to get buddy buddy with OU like we did with Texas and help them get their network going. If OU has their own network and a large contract like what Texas got for theirs it will be even more likely that they are not willing to give that up to go to the Pac 12 or SEC.

Agreed. OU/OSU should start their own network and Mizzou/KU/KSU/ISU should come up with one as well. The Texas schools could have done it as well but with TAMU gone I'm not sure how well TT and Baylor can do on their own. The PAC is doing the same but are splitting the pot evenly. If these teams run their 3rd tier rights correctly they could probably do a lot better than the PAC network. And if they do, we'll be talking about a bunch of independents or 2-4 team pods rather than super conferences.



I mean we really haven't figured out if a 16 team conference network will do better financially than a 2-4 team or even a one team network. What is the optimal size of a conference? Who knows -- but I'm hoping it is one team if they schedule just right.

Mizzou has an internet based channel, I believe.