Oklahoma and Texas to the PAC12?

The Austin Statesman thinks it could happen as soon as next month with Oklahoma leading the way, UT, TTech and OkState coming along for the PAC16 Superconference.



http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/one-more-move-and-big-12-is-over-1809134.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The other Austin Statesman writer seems to be of the opinion that the move is inevitable, so it might as well be made now instead of trying to save a diseased BigIX



http://www.statesman.com/sports/whats-next-for-texas-ou-big-12-and-1809356.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Makes hitching our wagon to the Big XII right now less and less desirable.

The Oklahoman has listed various options and handicapped them, with the PAC16 at 45% and BYU to the BigXII at 34%.



http://newsok.com/oklahoma-oklahoma-states-most-likely-options-strengthen-big-12-leave-for-a-pac-16/article/3599892?custom_click=columnist" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Texas and Oklahoma could have joined any conference they wanted, and yet they kept the Big 12 together. Don't get me wrong, if superconferences become inevitable they won't want to be left out, but they obviously prefer a 10 team Big 12 - because they also could have easily made it 12, 14, or 16.



They are very smart. They know how to win national championships. Right now, the Big 12 powers have the shortest and most certain route to the NC game of any team. They just have to win their conference and not lose more than once and that gets tem in every time it happens. As of this year, they don't even have a conference championship game to screw up their plans. They will be happy to keep things this way, until something forces them to take a riskier path to the NC. Although some would say grab a PAC slot as it is much more secure, T and O would like to put that off and win a couple of more national titles first.



If armageddon does explode, I hope BYU has done what it needs to do to lose the mid-major stigma before that day.



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The overall goals for Texas and OU are



1. Money

2. Control

3. Championship Path



All three are easily met in the Big 12. Texas loses all attempts at control as soon as it joins the Pac-12. OU and Texas likely believe that the easiest path to a BCS CG is through the Big 12. As such, the Big Money that might be out there is unlikely to get either school to jump.



Of course, if Texas goes Indy, then all bets are off.



Texas and OU should want the best collection of teams to reload to 12 or even get up to 14 or 16 just so that the Big 12 is never at risk again.



Unfortunately, I think the Big 12 is much like the Big East today or the WAC of a couple years ago --- a collection of schools looking to move elsewhere.



The WAC could have really been a solid competitor of the MWC if it could have kept UTEP, Rice, Tulsa, and SMU and maybe even expanded to 12. Those schools left because Boise, Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno refused to commit to the conference. And with all four of those looking to get out as soon as possible, it was near impossible for the WAC to actually grow and develop, in spite of the success of Boise and Hawaii after the departure of the CUSA West schools.



Now, if UT and OU want the best way to their goals, they need to go all in on the Big 12. Both can leave at any time and so can gamble with the Big 12 in ways that BYU has a lot more difficulty doing.

You guys sure do (a) seem confident that you know the hearts and minds of OU and UT better than their respective beat writers, and (b) appear to have forgotten just how close this came to happening just earlier this year when Nebraska and Colorado defected.



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snoscythe wrote:
You guys sure do (a) seem confident that you know the hearts and minds of OU and UT better than their respective beat writers, and (b) appear to have forgotten just how close this came to happening just earlier this year when Nebraska and Colorado defected.



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How much confidence do you have in all of the BYU beat writers? Not all of these guys necessarily have better ideas than the average fan.

snoscythe wrote:
The Austin Statesman thinks it could happen as soon as next month with Oklahoma leading the way, UT, TTech and OkState coming along for the PAC16 Superconference.



http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/one-more-move-and-big-12-is-over-1809134.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The other Austin Statesman writer seems to be of the opinion that the move is inevitable, so it might as well be made now instead of trying to save a diseased BigIX



http://www.statesman.com/sports/whats-next-for-texas-ou-big-12-and-1809356.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Makes hitching our wagon to the Big XII right now less and less desirable.

I am worried if this happens. I am not convinced that BYU would be included in the superconference movement if it is not in the Big12. If Texas, OU, and OSU bolt for the PAC-16, I don't think there will be a place for us anywhere. If that happens, and Notre Dame joins the Big 10, then things could get ugly.

Jarhead wrote:

You guys sure do (a) seem confident that you know the hearts and minds of OU and UT better than their respective beat writers, and (b) appear to have forgotten just how close this came to happening just earlier this year when Nebraska and Colorado defected.



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How much confidence do you have in all of the BYU beat writers? Not all of these guys necessarily have better ideas than the average fan.

I am more confident that BYU beat writers know what is going on at BYU better than a UT fan knows what is going on at BYU, and that is the relevant comparison here.



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UT's and OU's fealty runs toward their historic rivalries, not to any conference. A&M just blew up one of the rivalries they were trying to preserve, and the others that they actually care about would be maintained if the for rumored schools went to the PAC16.



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I would imagine if we turn down an invite this would almost certinly send UT and OU to the PAC?. They may be waiting on our decision before the next step. Most articles I've read talk about SMU and Huston as possibilities as well so it may be a bigger deal than most realize.

Not sure how the Texas to the PAC discussion changes all that much for Texas. The issues all remain the same here--PAC wants to own all TV rights and Texas wants LHN. Difference is, the LHN has now launched and ESPN Has loaned TExas $130M to make it happen. So unless Texas and ESPN are willing to walk from that investment, TExas to the PAC will not happen any time soon.



As to OU and USO, etc, not seeing the PAC wanting those schools without Texas. I bet inquiries have been made, and I bet Texas told them the same thing--allow us a network, or it will not happen. Do not see it happening, and the fact is, the LHN is what is keeping the superconferences from happening in 2010 and right now as well..

Lawboy wrote:
Not sure how the Texas to the PAC discussion changes all that much for Texas. The issues all remain the same here--PAC wants to own all TV rights and Texas wants LHN. Difference is, the LHN has now launched and ESPN Has loaned TExas $130M to make it happen. So unless Texas and ESPN are willing to walk from that investment, TExas to the PAC will not happen any time soon.



As to OU and USO, etc, not seeing the PAC wanting those schools without Texas. I bet inquiries have been made, and I bet Texas told them the same thing--allow us a network, or it will not happen. Do not see it happening, and the fact is, the LHN is what is keeping the superconferences from happening in 2010 and right now as well..

I think Lawboy has hit the nail on the head.

Honestly both ou and texas would prefer the big12 surviving before being part of pac16. if you don't believe that then you weren't watching last year. while it was an option, it was used more as leverage for texas to get more of what it wants.



probably being done again to scare byu into accepting. byu is their only option at this point unless they can grab notre dame. that opens more doors for them.



i doubt the big 12 could add louisville or pittsurg or like schools right now given their situation. if they invite houston or air force or teams like that they are screwed. it makes them look very weak and would signal that the big12 is going to die and it is just a matter of time.



byu with their espn deal has proven their national value, has a ton of fans, and tradition. it is also not a done deal if invited tah they would accept. byu accepting saves face for them and saves the big12 temporarily.



at that point texas gets what it wants knowing that if super conferences ever happen they will be fine. they can go pac16 any time. they have all the incentive in the world however for now to enjoy their money and being top dogs in a weak conference.



byu is going to the big12 and byu and notre dame and ou will continue to work with notre dame. notre dame also wants to stay indy for now and as long as they can. they get to as long as superconferences don't happen. if byu to the big12 happens that avoids super conferences at least in the short term. that is why byu has been consluting with them this week as the sl tribune notes.



basically byu is the key to avoiding super conferences. they will accept. the pac16 stuff just gives byu even more cover to get out of the wcc. my guess is that we accept on conditoin that we stay in wcc for 3 years or so. rose will be ticked.



notre dame and ou and texas will all sit and wait. once super conferences look immenent they will pounce and make the first superconference of their own or they will go to big10 and pac16. they want to avoid super conferences.



good news is byu by doing this will get assurances from nd and texas that they will be involved. they will have partners looking out for them should super confernces come to be. and if not they will at least have put themselves in a better position to get themselves in.



all signs in my head point to byu in the big12 relatively soon. announcement probably made over the weekend after the game.

this pac16 leverage thing is being used to force byu in. think about it. if espn wants byu to stay indie all the texas and ou have to do is threaten to go pac16. fox has first tier rights to pac12 and espn will have to enter into a bidding war to get rights for pac16 which would be a huge chunk of college football. if they lose that fox gains some serious ground on them.



espn also probably loses a lot of its value in teh 120 million investment in the longhorn network.



espn is surely pushing byu into the big12 at this point because it will save the big12 and it will save them a lot of money.

I love how just a couple of days ago the rumors and "insiders" were saying that ESPN was the only hold-up in BYU going to the Big XII because they didn't want to lose their BYU contract.



Now, suddenly we are convinced that ESPN is a driving force to get BYU into the Big XII???



I get the feeling that people are rationalizing what they want to happen more than what is likely to happen. That goes for BYU fans and UT/OU beat-writers alike.

snoscythe wrote:
I love how just a couple of days ago the rumors and "insiders" were saying that ESPN was the only hold-up in BYU going to the Big XII because they didn't want to lose their BYU contract.



Now, suddenly we are convinced that ESPN is a driving force to get BYU into the Big XII???



I get the feeling that people are rationalizing what they want to happen more than what is likely to happen. That goes for BYU fans and UT/OU beat-writers alike.

Hope you are not referring to me. i have maintained that i don't know what espn would want. but at this point I think you can pretty easily connect the dots. what is better for espn? big 12 or pac16?



the answer is easy, big12. saves them money. they would have to pay big time money to outbid fox for pac16 and if they lose they fox starts to get some real momentum over espn. not to mention their 120 million investment in lhn would become worthless.



I am being objective here. I would say that your criticism goes both ways. You seem quite convinced that indy is the best course of action. What do you think happens to the big12 if byu rejects the offer?

I see the Pac-16 as an end to BYU's chances to join a superconference (when that era comes). If the Big XII disappears, what other conference would BYU join. The closest geographically would be the Big 10, and that won't happen. BYU in the Big East or ACC doesn't make any sense. If I was a Boise State fan I'd be even more worried. They have no chance for any superconference invite if it comes to that.

pjmuli wrote:
I am worried if this happens. I am not convinced that BYU would be included in the superconference movement if it is not in the Big12. If Texas, OU, and OSU bolt for the PAC-16, I don't think there will be a place for us anywhere. If that happens, and Notre Dame joins the Big 10, then things could get ugly.

Yep, that's my worry. If superconferences really are the trend, then UT, OU, Ok St, and maybe TTech going to the Pac 12 could precipitate a scenario that would leave BYU out in the cold. The Big Ten (12 teams) will try for Notre Dame as well as Mizzou, Syracuse, and Pitt collapsing the Big East. SEC (13 with A&M) takes VTech and two more ACC schools. That leaves the ACC (down to 9) scrambling to add the remaining Big East schools (WVU, Cincy, UConn, Louisville, Rutgers, USF, and TCU). That would complete the long anticipated 4 superconferences of 16 teams.



Big losers in this nightmare scenario would be BYU, Boise State, Kansas, Kansas State, Houston, UCF, and Navy. Baylor--already a loser--would cement their position.

98BYUAlum wrote:
I see the Pac-16 as an end to BYU's chances to join a superconference (when that era comes). If the Big XII disappears, what other conference would BYU join. The closest geographically would be the Big 10, and that won't happen. BYU in the Big East or ACC doesn't make any sense. If I was a Boise State fan I'd be even more worried. They have no chance for any superconference invite if it comes to that.

In my opinion, that is why byu must accept the big 12 offer. i think if byu denies invitation that ou starts the jump ship option to pac16. at that point we have ticked texas and notre dame off and we are left out.



big12 can't get anybody else to join that will give them stability. byu is really their only option. (assuming nd doesn't come).



our best shot if super conferences are going to happen is to continue to forge relationships with notre dame and texas. if we reject offer, and super conferences happen, we are in big trouble.



best case, we stabilize big12 and enjoy it there. worst case is sec starts super conference dominoes. at that point nd texas nd byu have the chance to form their own unique super conference or we at least have some relationships that may help us get in, whether it is a guarantee or not.



there is a reason notre dame is helping us with this decision right now. it is because they want to stay indy. byu to big12 is key for that to happen.

Do ya'll think we'd be forced to play on LHN... I'd hate to go back to obscurity where just a few cable networks carry LHN so far, after our sweet INDY deal. I imagine BYUtv would still have rebroadcast rights, but who wants to watch a rebroadcast after you know the outcome...



I guess it would possibly be just for matchups with Texas at their place then right?... LHN isn't showing any other football games that don't involve UT? In fact there's only 1 game? UT vs Rice?