Ole Miss - According to the ODDS Makers

I would never bet frdbtr's house and life savings on a football game - and BYU is notorious for not covering the spread anyways - But when I peaked at the Las Vewgas odds - assuming I looked in the right place and read them correctly - I am not an expert on the ODDS Makers - and have bad eyes for small print - admittedly - BYU seems to be favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points in this one. You may recall, I predicted a close win after a blocked field goal as time expired. I still think that is about right.

I would take the spread on that. I think I will, actually.They will beat Ole Miss by 10+ points.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
I would take the spread on that. I think I will, actually.They will beat Ole Miss by 10+ points.

But would you bet frdbtr's house and life savings?



BYU may exceed national expectations which are surprisingly low for BYU and high for Utah.



BYU will probably over achieve and Utah will underachieve. I would bet my farm on that this year.



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I just checked 3 different sources for Las Vegas odds. BYU is favored by 3 points. I would favor the Cougs by 7-10 pts. The reason: Heaps, our renewed receivers corps, a good running game - and lastly - Sorensen's leg. I think our kicking game will be huge Sept. 3rd.



My logic is - from what I am reading - Ole Miss is "run heavy". The are pretty good. But, we have a strong Defensive Line & an excellent, & deep LB corps. I suspect out Defense will play a pivotal role against Ole Miss. Just like the game against Oklahoma. Defense really stepped up. I fully expect our Linebackers to have a huge game.



Go Cougs.

Ddawg wrote:
I just checked 3 different sources for Las Vegas odds. BYU is favored by 3 points. I would favor the Cougs by 7-10 pts. The reason: Heaps, our renewed receivers corps, a good running game - and lastly - Sorensen's leg. I think our kicking game will be huge Sept. 3rd.



My logic is - from what I am reading - Ole Miss is "run heavy". The are pretty good. But, we have a strong Defensive Line & an excellent, & deep LB corps. I suspect out Defense will play a pivotal role against Ole Miss. Just like the game against Oklahoma. Defense really stepped up. I fully expect our Linebackers to have a huge game.



Go Cougs.

With one exception, Oklahoma was better than Ole Miss will be. It was a key exception. Oklahoma had an OL injury a week or so prior to game week, and had to prep the 3 rd string TE to switch to center. OL was out of synch and even before getting injured, Bradford did not have time to throw.



OL will be the strength of the Ole Miss offense. It is the one part of their team that will definitely be equal to and possibly slightly better than ours. RB, FB, and TE in total will also be equal to what we put on the field. I expect us to show much better at QB and WR.



On defense, we will be better overall and with few exceptions.



I was really pleased to hear our erratic, but strong-legged kicker was having a great camp, but a bit nervous about his back strain keeping him out Friday. BTW - did we practice Saturday? I have not heard a word. I suspect, as always with almost every opponent, their kick returnees will be faster - although rumor has it that we maybe have a red- shirt freshman that may be a pleasant surprise.



We are playing in their house in extreme heat and humidity. On a dry sunny afternoon in Provo at altitude, I would add 7 or 10 points to our column. Jet lag, cramps, and fatigue in Mississippi played into my close game prediction.



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I believe that the effect of heat and humidity is not going to be so formidable. It will be off-set some by an actual advantage: that of taking alititude conditioned athletes to perform in a lower altitude environment. Our guys will be breathing a higher partial pressure of O2 than they are already conditioned to perform in. This advantages our players, either at home or away against a low altitude team. I also think we're plenty fast now---no longer "just a bunch of slow, white guys." We may have the best LB corps anywhere.



I'll go with Ddawg on this one, but I'll raise him four points, to bring the spread to 14.



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BOID wrote:
I believe that the effect of heat and humidity is not going to be so formidable. It will be off-set some by an actual advantage: that of taking alititude conditioned athletes to perform in a lower altitude environment. Our guys will be breathing a higher partial pressure of O2 than they are already conditioned to perform in. This advantages our players, either at home or away against a low altitude team. I also think we're plenty fast now---no longer "just a bunch of slow, white guys." We may have the best LB corps anywhere.



I'll go with Ddawg on this one, but I'll raise him four points, to bring the spread to 14.



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I dunno about this. When I moved to Houston after I finished up at BYU, I was floored by the humidity. I get out and run sometimes and it was much harder in Houston. I still don't like doing anything in the humidity. It just takes it out of you.

Does anyone know a site to check up on the updated odds? It will get more as the game gets closer, i am guessing

Cougarbib2 wrote:
I would never bet frdbtr's house and life savings on a football game - and BYU is notorious for not covering the spread anyways - But when I peaked at the Las Vewgas odds - assuming I looked in the right place and read them correctly - I am not an expert on the ODDS Makers - and have bad eyes for small print - admittedly - BYU seems to be favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points in this one. You may recall, I predicted a close win after a blocked field goal as time expired. I still think that is about right.

I would never bet my house and life savings on a sophomore QB and a rookie Ocoordinator.

frdbtr wrote:

I would never bet frdbtr's house and life savings on a football game - and BYU is notorious for not covering the spread anyways - But when I peaked at the Las Vewgas odds - assuming I looked in the right place and read them correctly - I am not an expert on the ODDS Makers - and have bad eyes for small print - admittedly - BYU seems to be favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points in this one. You may recall, I predicted a close win after a blocked field goal as time expired. I still think that is about right.

I would never bet my house and life savings on a sophomore QB and a rookie Ocoordinator.

You're not expected to. Bib's gonna do it for you!! ;) :lol: :lol:

What's interesting is that the over/under I'm seeing is 55. They think this is going to be a higher scoring game, with us winning 29-26. Historically, that just doesn't happen for us in openers against D-1A competition. About the only one that was like that was Washington 2008, 28-27. Looking at openers under Bronco:



'05 - BC, L 20-3

'06 - @AZ, L 16-13

'07 - AZ, W 20-7

'08 - @WA, W 28-27*

'09 - @OU, W 14-13

'10 - WA, W 23-17



*I didn't count Northern Iowa as the opener, since they're not D-1A competition.



28 is the high water mark, and every game that goes above 14 points is either Washington or Arizona, neither of whom were especially good on offense or defense in those years, and definitely not up to the SEC defense stereotype (which may or may not be valid for Ole Miss or at all, but we'll find out Saturday). I'd love to be wrong and see us score 24+, since our winning percentage is awesome with 24+ points, but if I were betting I'd take the under.

redneckjedi wrote:
What's interesting is that the over/under I'm seeing is 55. They think this is going to be a higher scoring game, with us winning 29-26. Historically, that just doesn't happen for us in openers against D-1A competition. About the only one that was like that was Washington 2008, 28-27. Looking at openers under Bronco:



'05 - BC, L 20-3

'06 - @AZ, L 16-13

'07 - AZ, W 20-7

'08 - @WA, W 28-27*

'09 - @OU, W 14-13

'10 - WA, W 23-17



*I didn't count Northern Iowa as the opener, since they're not D-1A competition.



28 is the high water mark, and every game that goes above 14 points is either Washington or Arizona, neither of whom were especially good on offense or defense in those years, and definitely not up to the SEC defense stereotype (which may or may not be valid for Ole Miss or at all, but we'll find out Saturday). I'd love to be wrong and see us score 24+, since our winning percentage is awesome with 24+ points, but if I were betting I'd take the under.

Does Bronco have that much to do with the offense? Seems like Doman will be blazing a new path over that history.

I think y'all are underestimating our RB's/wr's/te's. Brandon Bolden is One of the best RB's in the Sec, he will be playing in the NFL. Brandon also had 34 receptions last year, so he does it all. Jeff Scott averaged 6.5 a carry as a speed back. Enrique Davis a former five stat is another bruiser. At Wr we have Logan and Harris (6'6) as our main returners. We also landed probably the top WR class in the country last year. TE we return Ferbia Allen and add Jamal Mosley who played as a freshman at Oklahoma state. OSU usually does good recruiting TE's, he's big and fast and has shown out during camp. We will definitely use him in the passing game.



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Your RBs are solid. But I don't think you guys have a QB who can consistently get the ball to your WRs and TEs. I don't care how good they are, if the QB can't get them ball, they don't matter.



I'm not sold on guys who transfer. There's usually a reason why guys transfer. Rare is the transfer who pans out at a new school.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Your RBs are solid. But I don't think you guys have a QB who can consistently get the ball to your WRs and TEs. I don't care how good they are, if the QB can't get them ball, they don't matter.



I'm not sold on guys who transfer. There's usually a reason why guys transfer. Rare is the transfer who pans out at a new school.

Max Hall

Cam Newton

Ryan Mallett

Jevan Snead

Ben Mauk

Wickchad84087 wrote:

Your RBs are solid. But I don't think you guys have a QB who can consistently get the ball to your WRs and TEs. I don't care how good they are, if the QB can't get them ball, they don't matter.



I'm not sold on guys who transfer. There's usually a reason why guys transfer. Rare is the transfer who pans out at a new school.

Max Hall

Cam Newton

Ryan Mallett

Jevan Snead

Ben Mauk

Jevan Snead, really? But I'll see that and give you Drew Miller and Ryan Kessman and Tommy Grady and Mike Affleck and Ryan Clemens. Exceptions prove the rule.

SpiffCoug wrote:

SpiffCoug wrote:
Your RBs are solid. But I don't think you guys have a QB who can consistently get the ball to your WRs and TEs. I don't care how good they are, if the QB can't get them ball, they don't matter.



I'm not sold on guys who transfer. There's usually a reason why guys transfer. Rare is the transfer who pans out at a new school.

Max Hall

Cam Newton

Ryan Mallett

Jevan Snead

Ben Mauk

Jevan Snead, really? But I'll see that and give you Drew Miller and Ryan Kessman and Tommy Grady and Mike Affleck and Ryan Clemens. Exceptions prove the rule.

Ben Olsen?

OleMissInPeace wrote:
I think y'all are underestimating our RB's/wr's/te's. Brandon Bolden is One of the best RB's in the Sec, he will be playing in the NFL. Brandon also had 34 receptions last year, so he does it all. Jeff Scott averaged 6.5 a carry as a speed back. Enrique Davis a former five stat is another bruiser. At Wr we have Logan and Harris (6'6) as our main returners. We also landed probably the top WR class in the country last year. TE we return Ferbia Allen and add Jamal Mosley who played as a freshman at Oklahoma state. OSU usually does good recruiting TE's, he's big and fast and has shown out during camp. We will definitely use him in the passing game.



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I expect a close game. The reason several on here seem to be dismissing your running game is that Bronco is a stop the run first kind of coach and he will load up the box to stuff the run until one of two things happens with your play action passing game. Either your QB, who is really who they are dismissing, proves he can find the open receiver and get the ball to him, or proves to be an effective scrambler that can break outside the pile and hit the corner or head up the middle for big gains.



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Brunetti is a scrambler, you will see him line up in the wild Rebel take the snap with Bolden in motion and have 3 options. I think of Bronco has to rely on stacking the box all game you're in trouble. We will make plays in the passing game if that's the scenario. Brunetti is getting all the starting reps leading up to the game and I think he may surprise some of you.



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OleMissInPeace wrote:
Brunetti is a scrambler, you will see him line up in the wild Rebel take the snap with Bolden in motion and have 3 options. I think of Bronco has to rely on stacking the box all game you're in trouble. We will make plays in the passing game if that's the scenario. Brunetti is getting all the starting reps leading up to the game and I think he may surprise some of you.



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I don't think Bronco needs to rely on anything. I think that the Rebels will see many different looks from the defense. I don't think that BYU will lose this game on the Defensive side of the ball. Defense is what Bronco does.