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What's more likely 2.0?

by SpiffCoug · 8/24/2011

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S
SpiffCoug
Let's try a second question.
V
vancouvercougar
C: None of the above.
Y
Y 4 Ever
There's no way this team goes 6-6. Even (Lord forbid) Heaps goes down for the year in the 1st game, this team will still be 8-4 at worst. Maybe 12-0 isn't very likely - but its more likely than 6-6 IMO.
F
Florwood
What I'd find difficult is to decide between 8-4 and 10-2....
S
SpiffCoug
Florwood wrote:
What I'd find difficult is to decide between 8-4 and 10-2....

I think that'd be easy. 9-3 would be between 8-4 and 10-2. Every time. ;)
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M
mormonrasta
3-9 is more likely than 12-0. Neither one of those things are going to happen this year.
Y
Y 4 Ever
mormonrasta wrote:
3-9 is more likely than 12-0. Neither one of those things are going to happen this year.


No need to be a wet blanket.
B
Brayden Green
Really, what 6 (or 9) teams are we going to lose to?
S
snoscythe
Sorry, but I had to go 6-6. This is still a very young team playing its toughest games a LONG ways from home with a lot of coaches in "first-time" positions.



I think we have almost no chance of going undefeated, and that same reason makes it plausible this team loses games it shouldn't.
B
BoiseBYU
Neither because we win our bowl game and go 13 - 0!
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C
CougarClaw
injuries are more likely than lucky brilliance. the "U" word requires a great team as well as the planets to align just right and simply doesn't happen very often. Wheras if our team suffers injuries like our 2001 team, despite our depth, we could certainly lose games to teams we have no business losing to.
S
StatsCougar
I ran a quick simulation to see what the odds really were, and this is how they broke out:



Wins %

0 00.00%

1 00.00%

2 00.00%

3 00.03%

4 00.02%

5 00.37%

6 02.21%

7 07.74%

8 19.10%

9 29.26%

10 25.67%

11 12.62%

12 02.98%



From this, it is more likely (not my much) to go 12-0 vs 6-6.



(Notes on how I got this. 10,000 simulated season were can with the following probabilities of winning each game:

Ole Miss 60%

Texas 55%

Utah 75%

UCF 85%

USU 95%

SJSU 95%

OSU 55%

ISU 95%

TCU 50%

IU 95%

NMSU 95%

UH 60%



I can we run the numbers if any of these seem to far off. A better simulation will be work on later, but this was fairly easy to make.)
S
SpiffCoug
Percenatges for SJSU, ISU NMSU are too low. Those two games are more like 99% with IU being about 98% and USU being about 97%.
B
BoiseBYU
StatsCougar wrote:
I ran a quick simulation to see what the odds really were, and this is how they broke out:



Wins %

0 00.00%

1 00.00%

2 00.00%

3 00.03%

4 00.02%

5 00.37%

6 02.21%

7 07.74%

8 19.10%

9 29.26%

10 25.67%

11 12.62%

12 02.98%



From this, it is more likely (not my much) to go 12-0 vs 6-6.



(Notes on how I got this. 10,000 simulated season were can with the following probabilities of winning each game:

Ole Miss 60%

Texas 55%

Utah 75%

UCF 85%

USU 95%

SJSU 95%

OSU 55%

ISU 95%

TCU 50%

IU 95%

NMSU 95%

UH 60%



I can we run the numbers if any of these seem to far off. A better simulation will be work on later, but this was fairly easy to make.)

This is very interesting! If it were me, I'd drop Utah to 60%--rivalry game and all. I'd also drop OSU to 50%--we are playing there late in the year and TCU to 45%. I'd bump up ISU to 100% There is no way the projected last place team of the Big Sky wins at Provo That probably drops things some overall, but there you have it--quibbles really...thanks for doing this
R
redneckjedi
BoiseBYU wrote:
I ran a quick simulation to see what the odds really were, and this is how they broke out:



Wins %

0 00.00%

1 00.00%

2 00.00%

3 00.03%

4 00.02%

5 00.37%

6 02.21%

7 07.74%

8 19.10%

9 29.26%

10 25.67%

11 12.62%

12 02.98%



From this, it is more likely (not my much) to go 12-0 vs 6-6.



(Notes on how I got this. 10,000 simulated season were can with the following probabilities of winning each game:

Ole Miss 60%

Texas 55%

Utah 75%

UCF 85%

USU 95%

SJSU 95%

OSU 55%

ISU 95%

TCU 50%

IU 95%

NMSU 95%

UH 60%



I can we run the numbers if any of these seem to far off. A better simulation will be work on later, but this was fairly easy to make.)

This is very interesting! If it were me, I'd drop Utah to 60%--rivalry game and all. I'd also drop OSU to 50%--we are playing there late in the year and TCU to 45%. I'd bump up ISU to 100% There is no way the projected last place team of the Big Sky wins at Provo That probably drops things some overall, but there you have it--quibbles really...thanks for doing this


Signed,



Michigan, 2007
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B
Brayden Green
StatsCougar wrote:

Ole Miss 73%

Texas same

Utah 65%

UCF same

USU 98%

SJSU 99%

OSU 70%

ISU 98%

TCU 35%

IU 99%

NMSU 99%

UH 75%


My votes on percentages bolded.
S
StatsCougar
Wins %

0 00.00%

1 00.00%

2 00.00%

3 00.00%

4 00.01%

5 00.26%

6 02.00%

7 08.99%

8 21.79%

9 29.67%

10 24.26%

11 10.82%

12 02.20%



Ole Miss 60%

Texas 55%

Utah 60%

UCF 85%

USU 97%

SJSU 99%

OSU 50%

ISU 99%

TCU 45%

IU 98%

NMSU 99%

UH 60%



Spiff and Boise, here are the number ran again with your suggestions. I didn't make ISU 100, because strange things can happen. 12-0 is still more likely than 6-6
F
fifthqb
StatsCougar wrote:
4 00.01%




Someone reassure me we didn't just get cursed...
S
StatsCougar
BlueIsBetter wrote:

Ole Miss 73%

Texas same

Utah 65%

UCF same

USU 98%

SJSU 99%

OSU 70%

ISU 98%

TCU 35%

IU 99%

NMSU 99%

UH 75%


So your giving ISU, a FCS (1-AA) team a better change of better us than IU, a FBS (1-A) team? OK, I'll run another set of number based on this. I think TCU is too low though.



My votes on percentages bolded.
B
Brayden Green
Until we prove we can hang with TCU, we deserve the 35% imo. They have (or had, under Robert Anae) our numbers, for sure.



I meant to switch that. I had both at 98, then I thought, they need to be 99. Guess I only switched one. Woops. Thanks.
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