Could this be the breakout year for Y Offense

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This article states that this year could prove to be the best Y offense ever for 3 reasons:



1. Skill

2. Experience

3. Schedule



The skill and experience components are primarily associated with the strength of the OL and RBs JJ, Kariya and Q (3-headed monster). Everyone see the potential that Heap/Hoffman showed towards the end of last year and expect Apo and Jacobson to have breakout years because of the attention they all will bring - leading to lots of 1-1 coverage and isolation. If the TE can pick it up, I can see us scoring in the 40's-50's regularly - especially when you consider the weaker defensive teams from the WAC and the fact that most of the big teams we play are still in rebuilding mode (i.e. MS, TX, UT, UCF, TCU and OSU). Seems like the perfect storm barring injuries.



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Ok just another sports blog trying to get attention by making outlandish claims.

Is the theory plausible? BARELY.

"Best Ever"? I would like to run a statistical model predicting such, but I doubt it would render much more than a 15% chance.

Is a breakout year desired by Cougar nation? Certainly.

This blog sounds more like a TV infomercial selling another ab cruncher or diet supplement.Save your money.

Provided below are some offensive stats to consider going into 2011:



Season:



Most yards total offense - 6,790 (1990)

Best average total offense - 584.2 (1983)

Most points scored - 704/14 games/50.29/game (1996)

Most yards passing - 5379/14 games/384.21/game (1996)

Most yards rushing - 2549/14 games/182/game (1996)



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1996 team had crazy balance, which was not usual for BYU teams up to that point. 2 1,000 rushers, plus a 3,000 yard passer is pretty awesome. That is the offensive team to aspire to be like.

in my mind it comes down to receivers and tight ends. do they get their act together or continue to struggle with new coach and a tweaked offensive scheme.

Ok, the 96 team did not average 50pts per game. BYU's Highest scoring years were 2001 (46.8/game) and 1980 (46.7/game). 96 averaged 40.8/game.

Quick glance at the 1996 team backfield/WR-TE



QB - Steve Sarkisian

RB - Ronney Jenkins, Brian McKenzie

FB - Mark Atuaia, Dustin Johnson

TE - Chad Lewis, Itula Mili

WR - K.O. Kealaluhi, Kaipo McGuire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye,



So now where do we stack up against this group?



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Lawboy wrote:
1996 team had crazy balance, which was not usual for BYU teams up to that point. 2 1,000 rushers, plus a 3,000 yard passer is pretty awesome. That is the offensive team to aspire to be like.

the 96 team had no 1000 yard rushers. The top 2 rushers were

Brian McKenzie with 950 Net yards and Ronnie Jenkins with 733 Net yards. but we had a bunch of contributors:



RUSHING G ATT GAIN LOSS NET AVG PG TD LP

Brian McKenzie 14 167 977 27 950 5.7 67.9 11 4 4t-HAW

Ronney Jenkins 14 128 768 35 733 5.7 52.4 11 39-RIC

Mark Atuaia 14 86 379 14 365 4.2 26.1 4 4 2t-TCU

Dustin Johnson 13 45 257 8 249 5.5 19.2 1 19-USU

Chris Stevens 8 38 158 20 138 3.6 17.3 2 12t-ASU

Aaron Cupp 14 5 40 0 40 8.0 2.9 0 14-ASU

Paul Shoemaker 7 6 40 2 38 6.3 5.4 1 18-USU

Chris Bisgaard 4 6. 28 2 26 4.3 6.5 0 12-RIC

James Dye 14 4 38 12 26 6.5 1.9 0 25-SMU

K.O. Kealaluhi 14 1 21 0 21 21.0 1.5 0 21-TCU

Ned Stearns 8 7 19 2 17 2.4 2.1 0 9-ASU

Kevin Feterik 6 4 4 2 2 0.5 0.3 0 3-USU

Team 14 1 0 5 -5 -5.0 -0.4 0 0-USU

Chad Lewis 14 1 0 7 -7 -7.0 -0.5 0 0-UNLV

Steve Sarkisian 14 82 216 260 -44 -0.5 -3.1 1 25-ASU

BYU 14 581 2945 396 2549 4.4 182.1 31 44t-HAW

Opponents 14 515 2258 514 1744 3.4 124.6 11 40t-TAM

byucougar1 wrote:
Provided below are some offensive stats to consider going into 2011:



Season:



Most yards total offense - 6,790 (1990)

Best average total offense - 584.2 (1983)

Most points scored - 704/14 games/50.29/game (1996)

Most yards passing - 5379/14 games/384.21/game (1996)

Most yards rushing - 2549/14 games/182/game (1996)



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Not sure where you got your stats for passing or for points but the 96 team wasn't even close to those numbers



Passing: 4143 total yards 295.9/per game

Points: 571 total points 40.8/per game

byucougar1 wrote:
Quick glance at the 1996 team backfield/WR-TE



QB - Steve Sarkisian

RB - Ronney Jenkins, Brian McKenzie

FB - Mark Atuaia, Dustin Johnson

TE - Chad Lewis, Itula Mili

WR - K.O. Kealaluhi, Kaipo McGuire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye,



So now where do we stack up against this group?



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Just looking at those players at a glance, the current roster probably has more "talent" overall but that 96 team was loaded with sr's, this one has proved nothing so far. If they all develop like we all expect them to, we may see something in a couple of years that makes the 84 team envious.

Frdbtr



I dunno bout that talent advantage. See FB and TE lines. Other than that, possibly a more talented QB in Heaps but less proven than Sark. Yes, stronger RB talent and depth, and fairly proven at this point. WR more talented this year but less proven. OL advantage this year.



In all, 1996 had equal or better guys and more experience.



G



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byucougar1 wrote:
Quick glance at the 1996 team backfield/WR-TE



QB - Steve Sarkisian

RB - Ronney Jenkins, Brian McKenzie

FB - Mark Atuaia, Dustin Johnson

TE - Chad Lewis, Itula Mili

WR - K.O. Kealaluhi, Kaipo McGuire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye,



So now where do we stack up against this group?



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Wow! Legendary!

Cougarbib2 wrote:
Frdbtr



I dunno bout that talent advantage. See FB and TE lines. Other than that, possibly a more talented QB in Heaps but less proven than Sark. Yes, stronger RB talent and depth, and fairly proven at this point. WR more talented this year but less proven. OL advantage this year.



In all, 1996 had equal or better guys and more experience.



G



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I didn't say that they were better, I said that they possibly have more "talent" when I use the word "talent" I am talking about speed and athleticism. With the exception of Mili, (who was an absolute athletic freak). This current group has more speed and athleticism then the 96 group. Now what they do with that will show whether this group ends up being better then that one. That 96 team was the most balanced offense/defense team that BYU has ever had.

Should we put it to a vote? Nope. because RB"s and FB's--at best--are equal. BUt most would vote for Ronny Jenkins over any from this year. TE's,....hmmm lets see, two NFL guys, including a pro-bowl TE in Lewis.....NO CONTEST.

And as much as I am a Heaps fan, I would still take Sark over Heaps in this head-to-head comparison, soph to Sr.

Results: Not even close to "better" or more "talented".

Now if you want to talk about "raw or unproven talent" maybe its close to even. But the TE equation tilts the scales considerably. Can this year come together and be top 5 in all major stats in the history of BYU? I hope so. But this is where reason should prevail over hype. And if at the end of the season I eat my words, great.

Doman said he expects to win every game this season. I think I'll go with Doman's attitude and change for the better. Attitude begins with what is exuded by the coaches and then infuses in the players. They all say there is a confidence and swagger to the team that carried over from last season's remarkable turnaround. No way do they lose 4 - neither the coaches nor the players will accept that. Look for a wonderful season fulfilling the hype - time to get on the train of optimism cause it's taking off.



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Counting the Bowl Game and there will be a Bowl Game this year, this team could lose 4 games or more although less than 4 is more likely than more than 4. There are too many question marks and too tough an early schedule to dismiss 4 losses as being a very real possibility.



This is way different level of opponents than what BYU went 11-2 and 10-3 against for 4 consecutive seasons. This schedule is as challenging or more challenging than the one we just finished 7-6. Luckily we have a much more experienced team this year - but new coaches and scheme changes are unanswered questions relative to impact. Ditto tight ends, full back, secondary, field goal kicking, and injuries or suspensions that always seem to pop up this time of year.



BYU has a reasonable shot at perfection. Let's say 10% vs the less than 1% chance we had in 2010. It could happen. Heaps has more D1 experience than Bosco in 1984. We have six games it would be hard to lose, but stuff happens. One national ranking has us equal to or worse than the other 5 or 6 iirc, and Bowl Opponents will probably be decent. Those would be 50/50 odds, but most are road or un- neutral site games.



This would all point to 3 or 4 losses.



Let this be the year we overachiever - let us hope!



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The armed forces bowl will not likely draw a quality opponent. We dont lose that game.

But what is very interesting is the O-line factor. David Locke on AM1320 did an analysis of multiple college teams, in multiple years, and there a very high correlation of outstanding offensive performance to the # of games played by the offensive line. We may not see a better offensive line for 3-4 years. That will lead to alot of offense--and may at season's end have this offense qualify as "one of the best." If the defense matches, as in 1996 and have to throw in 1984, yes this could be a special season. I dont see 4 losses!

You guys are acting like I am saying that this years team will be as good as the 96 team. I am not saying anything of the sort. What I am saying, is this years players have the "potential" to be as good or better then the 96 team. The 96 team was loaded with sr's at nearly every offensive position. 2011 will not be like 96, but 2012 may be. It all depends on how much the current crop of talent develops.

How much will this offense benefit from a good defense? If this Defense can develop the DB's then I think our offense gets more opportunities to score. If the DB's play to their potential and are better than years past, the offense can be more aggressive.