I picked Mavs in 6. The Heat have more to lose as a team, and they seem mentally weaker than the Mavs have been (I don't remember any of the Mavs crying in the locker room during the season, nor do I remember any of the Mavs telling the media in the playoffs that they choked because the pressure of the moment got to them a'la Chris Bosh). If the Mavs take one of the first two, look for panic in the Heat.