Liklihood of Undefeated Season in 2011

I know this has been reviewed before, but after the Spring Game and looking at our depth (everywhere), I feel that our chances are better than average - especially given Bronco's statement that this team is special.



Gimmies: (5)



USU

SJSU

ID

ID State

NM State



Should Win: (5)



HI

OSU

Ole Miss

The Yew

UCF



Likely Win: (2)



UT (Struggling QB and Running Game) - at home

TCU (Have had Y's number for past couple of years) - we own Jerry's stadium :P

To go undefeated, you not only have to be good, you have to have some luck too. (like TCU's kicker doinking chip shot FG's off the side bar). I look at BYU and I see a team that with some breaks like that could go undefeated but then I look back through BYU's history and how many times they have gone undefeated and I come back to reality.

At the beginning of every season, I'm convinced that we are going to go undefeated. This year is no different. We're going 13-0, baby! PROVE ME WRONG!

Rationale for belief of undefeated team - Bronco has assembled quality depth/talent)



Offense:



Strength:



QB (Heaps, Nelson),

OL (M Reynolds, Hansen, B Brown, T Brown, H Reynolds) - (Thorson, Mulitalo, R Mathews, Tushaus, Vaitai)

RB (Diluigi, Q, Kariya)

WR (Hoffman, Apo, Jacobson, Falslev, Phillips).



Jury is out/Unproven:



TE (Holt - blocker, Mahina - can catch, block, Wilson - fast, Friel - does a little of everything)

FB (Mendenhall - great blocker; Alisa - fast, talented runner)



Defense:



Strength:

DE (Manumaleuna, Putnam, Dulan, Rowley, Muehlmann)

NG (Fuga, J Richardson, Tuiloma, Fangupo),

ILB (Kavenga, S Hadley, Stout, Ogletree, A Jorgensen)

OLB (VanNoy, J Frazier, A Fua, J Pendleton, J Atkinson, J Wagner, E Ansah)



Good:

Boundary Corner (Hadley, Eason, Everett),



Jury is Out/Unproven (however all are very good athletes):

Field Corner (Buckner, JJohnson);

Strong Safety (D Sorenson, J Galea'i)

Free Safety (Uale, Hague)

(5 +22 +43-20) X 2= 100



100% :D

Revised:

85% or better chance: (5)



USU

SJSU

ID

ID State

NM State



67% chance win or better



HI

UCF



55% chance or better



Ole Miss

Oregon State

Utah



Toughest games--50% or less



Texas

TCU



The one thing I like is that there is no game on the schedule I see as a long shot to win. Most years, we have a couple long shots. In 2011, due to our team being better and deeper, and a couple of other teams being younger and reloading, I like our chances. Still think it is maybe 5% overall.

After beating Oklahoma and destroying Tulane, I thought-FInally, everything's in place. Then that got shot. And the season was still fun and great but 2 big big errors happened, 2010 was a big transition/learning curve in the program.





I've decided to drop undefeated expectations for the year until AFTER utah. I think we can beat ole' miss 1-Bronco accomplishes wins that BYU traditionally doesn't get 2-BYU D is pissed 3-BYU O is hungry 4-pickle juice 5-ole miss overconfident for whatever reason



I think BYU will beat Texas 1-I will be there 2-better skill players, thanks for Apo btw 3-see above



I think BYU will beat utah 1-BYU IS better (they were last year too) 2-BYU grew enough and will grow from being road tested and will be fueled by a large Y crowd 3-BYU has owned pac teams lately...score of the last pac team to provo?



Okay, I think we go undefeated. Until Oct 28, then it'll take some of that "creativity" and innovation from coaches and big plays from players I've been biotching about for months to beat tcu...already bought my tickets so they'd better!!

I just don't see it with this year's team and schedule.

Doesn't ever fan and player expect to go undefeated? And isn't that exactly the way it should be? I remember my senior year of high school and I was asked what our was record going to be. I replied that we would be undefeated. I was scoffed at and we didn't go undefeated. but I didn't say we would go undefeated because I was cocky. I said it because I didn't plan to go into any game and lose. Every game we had in our schedule was winnable and I looked at all of them that way. We lost one game because we beat ourselves. We played poorly and we didn't make the plays we should have. (4th and 33 and we let it go for a TD, not a way to win a ball game) The other game we lost because they were just flat out better than we were. (They won 9-6 and went on to win the state championship)



I can say, and hopefully not come off as arrogant, that I expect BYU to win every game it plays. We will have to play to the best of our ability and many games could easily end up very close. I have been a sports fan long enough to never guarantee a win and hopefully long enough to respect the opponents. (even though that might be a stretch when it comes to Utah) But I would hope all fans look at every game as winnable. And I would be much more put off by a fan saying we can't with this or that game rather than a fan saying, "We can win this".



No matter the turn out, it is always fun to watch. Even as dismal as last seasons record was, it was fun to watch the players learn and grow and the team gain an identity. I fully expect this team to have a fire under it and win ever game they play, and if they don't, play well and have a good time.



Go BYU

I am as optimistic as ever, but counting a win @ Texas as likely? The team made a nice turn around the last half of last season, but still has not beat anyone with a pulse, including UTEP, since 2009.



This team has some things to prove before I start thinking wins @ Texas are likely.

There are several things about this schedule that works in BYU's favor:

Reasons For Optimism



1. Andy Dalton is gone

2. Utah plays at BYU this year

3. Texas and TCU break in new QBs this year

4. BYU plays 7 games at LES

5. BYU has a lot of talented juniors and seniors on this team

6. Historically, sophomore QBs have been pretty darn good and capable of winning every game. I expect that this year also.

7. From the voters standpoint, there is no more MWC to bias the voters (who has BYU really played anyway? there in the MWC). Our schedule may be no tougher this year than in the past, but there is no conference bias working against us.



Reasons for caution



1. Until a big play tight end emerges, I'm unsure about winning all our games

2. Heaps must prove he's as good as advertised every time he's on the field

3. Receivers, though good, must actually catch the football (I'm still a little paranoid after last year's receivers hands all turned to bricks)

4. Until our front three on D consistently get pressure on the QB, we could struggle against some teams

5. The kicking game is still a concern for me. If a couple of games come down to our FG kicker making a field goal from beyond 30 yards...can he make it and give us the win?

6. Play calling: we have a new OC, and I'm optimistic, but in tough games, tough situations, can a play be called that actually gives us the win? that is the test of a truly great play caller.

7. Defensively, BYU has been pretty good but not great in recent years; we've had a game or two where we looked dominant and it throws a shutout, but then we have the FSU games that give me the shakes. If Bronco can put together a group who can consistently give opposing offenses fits, then this could be the year.



As I've said before, if BYU starts the year 3-0 (Ole Miss, Texas and Utah), then look out, this could be a special year. But only a couple of teams every year go undefeated, it's pretty rare. I don't think an undefeated season is a true measuring stick of a team's success, or reveals how good they are, but it's a sweet feeling when you beat everybody you play. IF these guys can get wins against two pretty good teams, on the road, to start the season, then come home and thump Utah, heads will come up across the land.

bball wrote:



Reasons for caution



1. Until a big play tight end emerges, I'm unsure about winning all our games

2. Heaps must prove he's as good as advertised every time he's on the field

3. Receivers, though good, must actually catch the football (I'm still a little paranoid after last year's receivers hands all turned to bricks)

.

Amen.



1-TEs got screwed in spring and fall too, how do you not redshirt at least one of five? Other issues too. But in Doman's game blocking will be bigger-can't drop a pass that way, and short routes will be bigger-easier to catch a pass. Don't expect any Pitta's, but to be the same or worse than last year is impossible. Lewis will step it up in assistance IMO.



2-He's got to be like Jimmer and come through with big pass after big pass after big pass...I don't mean 50 yard passes every time (Jimmer could hit 50) I just mean 3rd down convos, TD strikes, thread needles, and smart adjustments)...heavily based on 3



3-Ashworth is gone, Mckay has been heavily rebuked, and talent is up. The forward pass (over 3 yards) disappeared because of lack of confidence in QB and WR, simply there was a lot of sucking on the field. I dont care about personal life issues, you get a perfect ball touching both hands-you catch the flippin' ball, PERIOD.



My favorite players emerged as Hoffman and Juice, both will produce more than last year in half the season I believe. Diluigi has been great but when he gets hit he bounces 2-5 yards backwards and I don't think he'll have to take as many reps this year (including pass plays) Apo will become a favorite, as will Mckay-he'll have fire to get better before he gets Ross'ed (remember 03 starters were benched in 04 by freshman).



There won't be issues with offensive productions. If 2010 is haunting our minds, think what it's doing to theirs.

Why are like our undefeated chances even more than before - Bronco appears to be rejuvenated, excited and has never spoken as well about the team as he has after the 2011 Spring Practice.



His comments to Greg Wrubell regarding the 2011 football team:



"I like our team. I loved the way spring practice went, I love the way that we finished the season a year ago, I like the momentum we're generating, I love the enthusiasm offensively with our love our new coaching staff...(the spring game in the snow) will epitomize what this particular team will do, and that will be fun."



Mark my words, at this point in time, this team is at a different level than prior ones given the talent of the players and coaching. The first six years were spent -re-establishing a winning tradition, the next six years will be centered on a return to greatness and dominance...which includes a National Championship. Bronco will not settle for less as his goal - coincidentally it was what Heaps stated when he committed to signing with BYU.

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