S
stuckinbig10countryBefore we get too far into looking at all the Bracketologists predictions, I think it would be wise to put a post up regarding how the selection committee processes the teams.
With the expansion to 68 teams this year there are 31 automatic qualifiers and 37 at large teams. They are the 30 conference tournament champions and the regular season champion of the Ivy League, who does not have a conference tournament, and the most "deserving" 37 at-large teams. The committee selects the remaining 37 at-large teams and seeds all 68 teams.
The selection committee is basically working with two pools the week leading up to the week. They project the 31 automatic qualifiers and then they have a potential at-large pool that they rate from 1 to whatever number they are actually considering. The top 37 are the ones that they eventually put into the bracket.
Those two pools change if there are upsets in the conference tournaments. Usually by Saturday night, they are pretty confident on who will be the at-large teams, because the tournament finals that are played on Sunday usually have teams that are probably all in, unless say a team that has a losing record has made the final of the Big East or Big 10 tournament. That would be the only adjustments to the at-large teams if the team with a losing record wins one of those conferences.
The teams are then ranked from 1-68. There is a number 1 overall seed. The teams ranked 2-4 get the other number one seeds and are assigned their regional final destinations. The committee uses an S-Curve to assign seedings to rest of the 68. The matrix below shows how the top 16 seeds are placed (seed in parentheses):
Region 1: #1 overall seed (1), #8 (2), #9 (3), #16 (4)
Region 2: #2 (1), #7 (2), #10 (3), #15 (4)
Region 3: #3 (1), #6 (2), #11 (3), #14 (4)
Region 4: #4 (1), #5 (2), #12 (3), #13 (4)
And this continues on all the way to 68. This is the initial draft of the brackets. The committee has some rules that they like to follow, but they aren't set in stone. First: they try and make it so that teams from the same conference cannot meet before the regional final (they violate this rule every once in a while to protect the top 4 seeds in each bracket, and if a conference gets 9 teams in, like the Big East has before, setting the brackets that way is impossible). So say #4 and #13 are from the same conference, they could meet in the regional semi-final. The committee would move one of them to a different region or a different seed, and most likely they would move the lower rated team. Here, the committee could swap #4 with #3 (or 2 or 1, but not likely) or switch #4 with #5, again not likely because they want that team to be a 1 seed. #13 could switch with any of the numbers from probably 11 to 16. We'll come back to the top 16 seeds later in this post.
The second rule that they try to follow is to try and avoid regular season rematches in the first 2 rounds if possible.
The third rule is to avoid opening round rematches in two consecutive years.
As we can see, these rules are not always followed, but they are pretty standard, and are only changed if moving people around the S-Curve is just too much of a hassle.
So, with the new format this year, there are 3 new teams. The bottom 4 seeds (numbers 65 to 68) and the last 4 at-large qualifiers (usually these teams are seeded 10 to 12) will meet in Dayton, OH the Tuesday before the rest of the tournament kicks off to decide who gets to go into the standard 64 team bracket. Winners of those 4 games will claim probably an 11, 12 and two 16 seeds. I've mentioned before how I actually somewhat like this change, but feel that the automatic qualifiers (which the 65 to 68 rated teams always are) should be in the 64 team bracket regardless and this "First Four" should consist entirely of the last 8 at-large teams.
The part that a lot of people have gotten confused on has been the opening round sites and how they feed into the regionals or that certain seeds are only at Fri/Sun or Thu/Sat sites. That is not the case. It is the confusing part of looking at bracketology, because sometimes all the 1 or 3 seeds are projected at Fri/Sun sites, and BYU fans think, well, I guess we can't be a 3 seed. That is really not the case. Two 1 seeds can play at the same venue during the first week. Happens all the time when UNC and Duke are good and there is a Charlotte opening round site. Happened at SLC a few years ago when the Huntsman Center was an opening round site.
The committee tries to protect the top 4 seeds in each bracket by having them play closer to home if possible. It usually is because those top 4 seeds are the top rated seeds in their first 2 rounds of the tournament. Seems that they make some adjustments for the smaller schools that are seeded 13 to 16 too, because they probably don't have the travel budget some of the other teams do and don't make the tournament as often, but that just may be my perception. There are some 3 and 4 seeds that get sent across the country and there are some 13 and 16 seeds that do as well.
The reason why this causes some consternation for BYU fans is that BYU may get slid up and down the seeding lines because they can only play at Thurs/Sat sites that feed into Thurs/Sat regionals. If BYU is a top 4 seed, look for them to be in Denver. Then from there they will go to either Anaheim or New Orleans (depending on if they are rated higher than SDSU). The higher rated team out of BYU and SDSU will get the Anaheim slot as the highest rated team in the West.
The whole reason I started this post was to warn Cougar fans to not get to caught up in the bracketologist's guesses of what the sites for the opening rounds are and not worry which opening round sites feed into the regional sites. BYU can be any seed and can play at any opening round site or in any regional that is Thurs/Sat.
With the expansion to 68 teams this year there are 31 automatic qualifiers and 37 at large teams. They are the 30 conference tournament champions and the regular season champion of the Ivy League, who does not have a conference tournament, and the most "deserving" 37 at-large teams. The committee selects the remaining 37 at-large teams and seeds all 68 teams.
The selection committee is basically working with two pools the week leading up to the week. They project the 31 automatic qualifiers and then they have a potential at-large pool that they rate from 1 to whatever number they are actually considering. The top 37 are the ones that they eventually put into the bracket.
Those two pools change if there are upsets in the conference tournaments. Usually by Saturday night, they are pretty confident on who will be the at-large teams, because the tournament finals that are played on Sunday usually have teams that are probably all in, unless say a team that has a losing record has made the final of the Big East or Big 10 tournament. That would be the only adjustments to the at-large teams if the team with a losing record wins one of those conferences.
The teams are then ranked from 1-68. There is a number 1 overall seed. The teams ranked 2-4 get the other number one seeds and are assigned their regional final destinations. The committee uses an S-Curve to assign seedings to rest of the 68. The matrix below shows how the top 16 seeds are placed (seed in parentheses):
Region 1: #1 overall seed (1), #8 (2), #9 (3), #16 (4)
Region 2: #2 (1), #7 (2), #10 (3), #15 (4)
Region 3: #3 (1), #6 (2), #11 (3), #14 (4)
Region 4: #4 (1), #5 (2), #12 (3), #13 (4)
And this continues on all the way to 68. This is the initial draft of the brackets. The committee has some rules that they like to follow, but they aren't set in stone. First: they try and make it so that teams from the same conference cannot meet before the regional final (they violate this rule every once in a while to protect the top 4 seeds in each bracket, and if a conference gets 9 teams in, like the Big East has before, setting the brackets that way is impossible). So say #4 and #13 are from the same conference, they could meet in the regional semi-final. The committee would move one of them to a different region or a different seed, and most likely they would move the lower rated team. Here, the committee could swap #4 with #3 (or 2 or 1, but not likely) or switch #4 with #5, again not likely because they want that team to be a 1 seed. #13 could switch with any of the numbers from probably 11 to 16. We'll come back to the top 16 seeds later in this post.
The second rule that they try to follow is to try and avoid regular season rematches in the first 2 rounds if possible.
The third rule is to avoid opening round rematches in two consecutive years.
As we can see, these rules are not always followed, but they are pretty standard, and are only changed if moving people around the S-Curve is just too much of a hassle.
So, with the new format this year, there are 3 new teams. The bottom 4 seeds (numbers 65 to 68) and the last 4 at-large qualifiers (usually these teams are seeded 10 to 12) will meet in Dayton, OH the Tuesday before the rest of the tournament kicks off to decide who gets to go into the standard 64 team bracket. Winners of those 4 games will claim probably an 11, 12 and two 16 seeds. I've mentioned before how I actually somewhat like this change, but feel that the automatic qualifiers (which the 65 to 68 rated teams always are) should be in the 64 team bracket regardless and this "First Four" should consist entirely of the last 8 at-large teams.
The part that a lot of people have gotten confused on has been the opening round sites and how they feed into the regionals or that certain seeds are only at Fri/Sun or Thu/Sat sites. That is not the case. It is the confusing part of looking at bracketology, because sometimes all the 1 or 3 seeds are projected at Fri/Sun sites, and BYU fans think, well, I guess we can't be a 3 seed. That is really not the case. Two 1 seeds can play at the same venue during the first week. Happens all the time when UNC and Duke are good and there is a Charlotte opening round site. Happened at SLC a few years ago when the Huntsman Center was an opening round site.
The committee tries to protect the top 4 seeds in each bracket by having them play closer to home if possible. It usually is because those top 4 seeds are the top rated seeds in their first 2 rounds of the tournament. Seems that they make some adjustments for the smaller schools that are seeded 13 to 16 too, because they probably don't have the travel budget some of the other teams do and don't make the tournament as often, but that just may be my perception. There are some 3 and 4 seeds that get sent across the country and there are some 13 and 16 seeds that do as well.
The reason why this causes some consternation for BYU fans is that BYU may get slid up and down the seeding lines because they can only play at Thurs/Sat sites that feed into Thurs/Sat regionals. If BYU is a top 4 seed, look for them to be in Denver. Then from there they will go to either Anaheim or New Orleans (depending on if they are rated higher than SDSU). The higher rated team out of BYU and SDSU will get the Anaheim slot as the highest rated team in the West.
The whole reason I started this post was to warn Cougar fans to not get to caught up in the bracketologist's guesses of what the sites for the opening rounds are and not worry which opening round sites feed into the regional sites. BYU can be any seed and can play at any opening round site or in any regional that is Thurs/Sat.