Bracketology update

Yeah, it's on the side, but it's nice to have a thread for comments.



http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Nice seeds for both BYU and SDSU. Denver and Tucson, respectively.



I don't like the prospect of facing aTm in the sweet 16, they just seem to have our number, though the prospect of beating them when it matters more is enticing. I think the draws are good for both BYU and SDSU. It also sets up a possible all MWC finals.

Maybe need to start planning a trip to Denver.

Watching the mtn on Saturday morning, as lame as that can be, the SDSU media rep that was on was talking of seeding and said that SDSU doesn't really care if they are a #1 or #2 seed as much as they want to be in the Tuscon bracket and then flow to Anaheim. I'm not certain that I'm reading the bracket correctly, but I don't see that combination. It looks to me like Tuscon only flows to New Orleans. Am I looking at it incorrectly?

I really have a hard time believing that we will be given a 2 seed even if we win out. BYU always gets screwed in seedings. I would not be surprised to see us as the lowest 3 seed. If we lose to SDSU and then lose in the conference tournament I would be surprised if we get better than a 6 seed.

Wickchad84087 wrote:
I really have a hard time believing that we will be given a 2 seed even if we win out. BYU always gets screwed in seedings. I would not be surprised to see us as the lowest 3 seed. If we lose to SDSU and then lose in the conference tournament I would be surprised if we get better than a 6 seed.

I have just about the biggest chip in the world (well, at least in Utah county) on my shoulder about the rest of the 'world's' perception of byu and how they always get screwed. Just ask my friends about the chip on my shoulder...

Anyway, even I don't think BYU falls to a 6 this year. It would take losing every game remaining that is available to them. Those games include: @TCU, CSU, UNM, @SDSU, and WYU. At absolute worst, ABSOLUTE WORST, they lose @SDSU and UNM at home (unlikely for UNM game, 50/50 for game @SDSU), putting them at 27-4. Now lets pretend that somehow they lose their first round game in the MWC tournament, they'd be 27-5. Let's just forget about them losing the first round MWC game against either UoU, TCU (especially without Moss) or Wyoming so even if they lose @SDSU and UNM at home they go to the tourney at 28-5. Even with all the hype and love for Jimmer, they could possibly fall to a 6 seed. Last season, this team was a 7 seed with not any hype to speak of so its hard for me to imagine them falling to a 6 with losses to a top 5 team on the road, the first and only bad loss at home to UNM coming in the last week of the regular season and getting out of the second round of the conference tourney.



If byu loses at SDSU and then lose in the championship game of the MWC tourney (most likely scenario and what I think you think will happen), their record will be 30-4 going into the ncaa tourney. No way in hades a team that is 30-4, ranked in the top 12 (likely at that point with only losing 2 more games all year and the jimmer hype train), and still ranked in the top 10 in RPI, sagarin, and pomeroy gets worse than a 4, IMO. I might be wrong but with everything considered this year I don't see byu getting their "deserved seed + 3" treatment from the selection committee. Likely get a 3, IMO.

If BYU wins out, I think the committee would have a seriously had time trying avoid giving them a #1 seed. That would include a top 5 road win and a potentially a couple more wins over top 35 teams in the MWC tourney (SDSU, CSU, UNLV, UNM). Plus, if Utah State, Saint Mary's, Arizona and UCLA can keep climbing that would make for one impressive resume.



That said, winning out is one tall order and would take an Herculean effort by our Cougars. The way the schedule works out for the teams ahead of us, if they drop, it's going to be hard to keep us off of the 2 line at least and that's even if we drop another game or two. If the teams ahead of us don't lose again (their schedules aren't easy), that should really cement our status as a #2 because that means that teams immediately behind us our losing.



Yeah, I just don't think that we can drop below a 3 even with all the press and national media we've gotten and with the high RPI, poll showings, and number of road games played, unless we drop more than two more games.

What would really be great is to get the 2 seed but then realize that they put us on the Friday-Sunday side like six or seven years ago when we played Uconn in the first round. Win the first game and then be forced to forfeit the Sunday game. I'm probably just too jaded against the committee, but like I said I won't believe we get a good seed until I see it.

Wickchad84087 wrote:
What would really be great is to get the 2 seed but then realize that they put us on the Friday-Sunday side like six or seven years ago when we played Uconn in the first round. Win the first game and then be forced to forfeit the Sunday game. I'm probably just too jaded against the committee, but like I said I won't believe we get a good seed until I see it.

I'm right with you on not trusting the committee's judgement calls on byu's previous seedings but I just don't see them being able to do it and get away with it this year. Too much national attention on the team this year. If byu only has 2 more losses all year, has an RPI, sagarin, pomeroy in the top 10 and ranked top 10-12 and drops tp a 4 or worse because the committee doesn't like making the sunday exception for them there will be someone who takes notice.

If we win out I honestly believe we will be a #2 seed. I think that would be a given.



I honestly think we'd have to have a major melt down to slip beyond a #4.

This year's BYU team is not the same as previous BYU teams that were dropped in their seeds. Our RPI is so much higher than those. Our SOS is so much higher. Our road/neutral record is so much better. Our record vs RPI top 25 and top 50 is so much better.



We have a legitimate #2 seed resume - even if we lose another game.

If I were putting money on what BYU's seed would end up being as of today I would put my money on a 4 seed.

If Selection Sunday was yesterday, I think BYU would be no worse than a 3 seed.

The Bracketology Matrix of 60 different publications has had us at a solid 2 for several weeks running:



http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

If we win the MWC, I like our chances of locking down a #2 seed. If we do not, and we also lose @SDSU coming up, I expect a #4, unless we make the MWC final and lose to SDSU. Then it is a #3.

I count 9 teams in the current brackets that we have played this year. We are 8-1 against them. Impressive.



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BYULV wrote:
I count 9 teams in the current brackets that we have played this year. We are 8-1 against them. Impressive.



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Also impressive is defeating 6 conference leaders as of this moment.

stuckinbig10country wrote:

I count 9 teams in the current brackets that we have played this year. We are 8-1 against them. Impressive.



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Also impressive is defeating 6 conference leaders as of this moment.

Did you include SDSU in that count?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology



Ok, I hate following my own post with another post, but here we go. Lunardi gets a lot of praise for his bracket, and well he should. He's good, and he usually only misses 2 or 3 teams a year, but his seeding is usually not as accurate as Jerry Palm of CBS. He's the one that I like the best of the "national" bracketologists. If you don't think BYU has the chance to be a number 1 seed, look who he has as number 1 in the West right now. BYU has them on the schedule at least one more time, and probably twice, and has a win over them.



Just for background, last year Palm was 100% on the 65 teams that were in the tournament last year, and was something like 97% with seeding within one seed of where the teams ended up.

CougarPeasant wrote:

BYULV wrote:
I count 9 teams in the current brackets that we have played this year. We are 8-1 against them. Impressive.



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Also impressive is defeating 6 conference leaders as of this moment.

Did you include SDSU in that count?

It might be 7.