Why BYU will get a high seed this year

Jimmermania! The selection comittee and the TV coverage have got to be licking their chops to have him showcased in as many games as possible. Everyone wants to see Jimmer play, which will translate to everyone wanting to watch every game he is in. All he has to do is keep being Jimmer, and the committee will fall all over themselves trying to give him the best chance possible to play a lot of games in the dance. :)

Our number of regular season losses could equal our seed (as long as we don't bow out in the 1st round of the UNLV Invitational).

kitic77 wrote:
Our number of regular season losses could equal our seed (as long as we don't bow out in the 1st round of the UNLV Invitational).

Agreed

I was astonished last night watching the 3 ESPN games on that in each one they mentioned Jimmer Fredette in comparing players or shots. Shooting 3's from the cheap seats has really become for some media folks, "Jimmer Fredette range". Remarkable.

kitic77 wrote:
Our number of regular season losses could equal our seed (as long as we don't bow out in the 1st round of the UNLV Invitational).

I think that our seed will equal our total losses after the MWC tourney, plus 1.



So if we win out, including tourney: 2 seed

2 losses: 3 seed

3 losses: 4 seed



etc, etc, etc



I don't see ANY way that BYU (or SDSU) gets a 1 seed, no matter what.



And quite frankly, I think I'd rather have a 2 or 3 seed than a 1 seed anyway. Since we could be the strongest 2 or 3 seed and get favorable bracket treatment, while we'd be considered the weakest 1 seed and get whichever bracket was left over after the other 1 seeds (of course, this could likely be the West bracket). But also, less pressure on the team as a 2 or 3 seed than a 1.

1 loss after the tourney equals #1 seed and a top 2 or 3 ranking. It will be impossible to deny it. Three wins over SDSU including road and neutral court wins to go along with all that has already been done and a few more wins over NM, UNLV, CSU, Utah, etc. They won't want to give it to us, but they will not be able to deny us.



I am obviously assuming that teams ahead of us will continue to pick up losses. We will probably be the poorest ranked 1-loss team. That is for sure. There may even be a 2 loss team slip ahead of us.



There will not be many 1- or 2- loss teams come March after conference tournaments are done. There just won't be.

Cougarbib2 wrote:
1 loss after the tourney equals #1 seed and a top 2 or 3 ranking. It will be impossible to deny it. Three wins over SDSU including road and neutral court wins to go along with all tha thas already been done and a few more wins over NM, UNLV, CSU, Utah, etc. They won't want to give it to us but they will not be able to deny us.



I am obviously assuming that team ahea dof us will continue to pick up losses. We will probably be the poorest ranked 1-loss team. Th atis for sure. Ther may even be a 2 loss team slip ahead of us.



There will not be many 1- or 2- loss teams come March after conference tournaments are done. there just won't be.

Remember, USU had a season a few years ago where they had 2 losses - just two. AND they were ranked in the top 25. They lost in the WAC tourney (I think that was their second loss, may have been #3). They didn't make the NCAA tourney.



My point is # of losses and rankings aren't entirely relevant to the seeding process. Seeding is based on perception as much as anything - and no matter what happens the rest of this year, there will be those who's perception of BYU is a "mid major" playing a "weaker" schedule, and if they were in a "real" conference like the Big East or the Big Ten they'd have 7 or 8 losses.



I don't see any way that BYU gets a 1 seed, even if we win out. And as long as we get the 2 seed in an advantageous bracket, I'm fine with that.

Y 4 Ever wrote:

1 loss after the tourney equals #1 seed and a top 2 or 3 ranking. It will be impossible to deny it. Three wins over SDSU including road and neutral court wins to go along with all tha thas already been done and a few more wins over NM, UNLV, CSU, Utah, etc. They won't want to give it to us but they will not be able to deny us.



I am obviously assuming that team ahea dof us will continue to pick up losses. We will probably be the poorest ranked 1-loss team. Th atis for sure. Ther may even be a 2 loss team slip ahead of us.



There will not be many 1- or 2- loss teams come March after conference tournaments are done. there just won't be.

Remember, USU had a season a few years ago where they had 2 losses - just two. AND they were ranked in the top 25. They lost in the WAC tourney (I think that was their second loss, may have been #3). They didn't make the NCAA tourney.



My point is # of losses and rankings aren't entirely relevant to the seeding process. Seeding is based on perception as much as anything - and no matter what happens the rest of this year, there will be those who's perception of BYU is a "mid major" playing a "weaker" schedule, and if they were in a "real" conference like the Big East or the Big Ten they'd have 7 or 8 losses.



I don't see any way that BYU gets a 1 seed, even if we win out. And as long as we get the 2 seed in an advantageous bracket, I'm fine with that.

Well, if they had 7 or 8 losses in the Big East they'd still get a 3 or 4 seed AT WORST, so it equals out.



Also, USU that year didn't have Jimmer or any other household name that people cared about. That is a huge factor. CBS and the NCAA really care about that, and will put BYU in a position to advance, if at all possible.

If BYU won out, they'd be 33-1. They'd likely have beaten six ranked teams (SDSU x3, Arizona, St. Mary's and possibly Utah St). They'd have a top 3 RPI and have a record vs the RPI top 50 of somewhere near 11-1. They'd have a road/neutral record of 20-1. We'd be ranked in the top 3 three in the polls as well. We'd be riding a 23 game win streak. And we'd have the National Player of the Year.



Sorry, but that's the resume of a #1 seed if I ever saw one.

kitic77 wrote:
If BYU won out, they'd be 33-1. They'd likely have beaten six ranked teams (SDSU x3, Arizona, St. Mary's and possibly Utah St). They'd have a top 3 RPI and have a record vs the RPI top 50 of somewhere near 11-1. They'd have a road/neutral record of 20-1. We'd be ranked in the top 3 three in the polls as well. We'd be riding a 23 game win streak. And we'd have the National Player of the Year.



Sorry, but that's the resume of a #1 seed if I ever saw one.

If they pull that off, they might be the number 2 overall seed in the tournament. And it's not unheard of. Memphis, from CUSA, got a 1 seed, and probably should have won the title.

Personally, I think we're probably going to drop at least one more game. I think 30-3 is much more likely than 33-1. Although 33-1 is probably more likely than 28-5

stuckinbig10country wrote:

Cougarbib2 wrote:
1 loss after the tourney equals #1 seed and a top 2 or 3 ranking. It will be impossible to deny it. Three wins over SDSU including road and neutral court wins to go along with all tha thas already been done and a few more wins over NM, UNLV, CSU, Utah, etc. They won't want to give it to us but they will not be able to deny us.



I am obviously assuming that team ahea dof us will continue to pick up losses. We will probably be the poorest ranked 1-loss team. Th atis for sure. Ther may even be a 2 loss team slip ahead of us.



There will not be many 1- or 2- loss teams come March after conference tournaments are done. there just won't be.

Remember, USU had a season a few years ago where they had 2 losses - just two. AND they were ranked in the top 25. They lost in the WAC tourney (I think that was their second loss, may have been #3). They didn't make the NCAA tourney.



My point is # of losses and rankings aren't entirely relevant to the seeding process. Seeding is based on perception as much as anything - and no matter what happens the rest of this year, there will be those who's perception of BYU is a "mid major" playing a "weaker" schedule, and if they were in a "real" conference like the Big East or the Big Ten they'd have 7 or 8 losses.



I don't see any way that BYU gets a 1 seed, even if we win out. And as long as we get the 2 seed in an advantageous bracket, I'm fine with that.

Well, if they had 7 or 8 losses in the Big East they'd still get a 3 or 4 seed AT WORST, so it equals out.



Also, USU that year didn't have Jimmer or any other household name that people cared about. That is a huge factor. CBS and the NCAA really care about that, and will put BYU in a position to advance, if at all possible.

Yes, I know that BYU's resume is much stronger than USU's was a few years ago, and is also a much more attractive team. But I'm not talking about whether or not BYU makes the tourney - but whether or not a 1 seed is possible even if we win out. I was merely using USU as an example of anything having to do with the tourney not necessarily making sense based on records/rankings. I'm not suggesting that BYU's going to get left out of the tourney like USU did - I'm merely suggesting that a 1 seed is, in my opinion, simply not going to happen, no matter how strong our resume looks. I believe that there's a ceiling of a 2 seed for BYU this year.

Please don't even try to compare USU of a few years ago with BYU. BYU has never had an SOS as low as USU is this year and historically is. BYU has always had a higher RPI than USU.



IF BYU gets a 1 seed, it will be because they have earned it THIS year. St. Joe's was a 1 seed and had done even less in the prior seasons than BYU has. IF the Cougs win out, there is NO way we won't be a 1 seed.

kitic77 wrote:
Please don't even try to compare USU of a few years ago with BYU. BYU has never had an SOS as low as USU is this year and historically is. BYU has always had a higher RPI than USU.



IF BYU gets a 1 seed, it will be because they have earned it THIS year. St. Joe's was a 1 seed and had done even less in the prior seasons than BYU has. IF the Cougs win out, there is NO way we won't be a 1 seed.

I would be shocked if there isn't at least one more loss on the schedule. I see possible losses tomorrow at UNM, at AFA (not likely, but if they get hot), and at SDSU. TCU just suspended their best player, so I won't put that on the list. I don't think they lose all of the one's mentioned, but I do see at least one being a loss.

The only two games where I think we could lose are tomorrow and at UNM. I think we probably split those two. We "should" win all the other games.

Plus, BYU has always been the victim of what they did (or in most cases, DIDN"T) do the previous year. This year we have momentum from last year that, I think, could carry us to a #1 seed. I can see it happening. I wouldn't put my house on it against double odds, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility.



I do think that we need to win, and other teams need to lose for that to happen, but that is the name of game for us "non-power conference" types.

kitic77 wrote:
The only two games where I think we could lose are tomorrow and at UNM. I think we probably split those two. We "should" win all the other games.

I will speak 4 Kitic. Above - he meant to put tomorrow and at SDSU. This is the first and only itme I have been 100% certain that Kitic will agree that I am corect.

Y 4 Ever wrote:

1 loss after the tourney equals #1 seed and a top 2 or 3 ranking. It will be impossible to deny it. Three wins over SDSU including road and neutral court wins to go along with all that has already been done and a few more wins over NM, UNLV, CSU, Utah, etc. They won't want to give it to us, but they will not be able to deny us.



I am obviously assuming that teams ahead of us will continue to pick up losses. We will probably be the poorest ranked 1-loss team. That is for sure. There may even be a 2 loss team slip ahead of us.



There will not be many 1- or 2- loss teams come March after conference tournaments are done. There just won't be.

Remember, USU had a season a few years ago where they had 2 losses - just two. AND they were ranked in the top 25. They lost in the WAC tourney (I think that was their second loss, may have been #3). They didn't make the NCAA tourney.



My point is # of losses and rankings aren't entirely relevant to the seeding process. Seeding is based on perception as much as anything - and no matter what happens the rest of this year, there will be those who's perception of BYU is a "mid major" playing a "weaker" schedule, and if they were in a "real" conference like the Big East or the Big Ten they'd have 7 or 8 losses.



I don't see any way that BYU gets a 1 seed, even if we win out. And as long as we get the 2 seed in an advantageous bracket, I'm fine with that.

USU did get ripped off, but this is what USU did not have that year.



BYU 1 loss (close one to UCLA in PAC 10) - USU had 2 losses

Top 10 Win - BYU would have 3 of them over SDSU (who might have faded to 15 by then)

#1RPI

Road wins and other wins over ranked (at the time played) teams - USU, St. Marys, Arizona, UNLV(2 or 3), SDSU (3), and other solid teams - UNM, CSU, Vermont, etc.

Top 10 Ranking for more than half the season.

A national POY leading candidate



Of course, BYU does not have all of that yet either - like I said, we need to win out all the way through the Las Vegas Invitational Tournament to get that #1 seed and top 2 or 3 ranking.

Cougarbib2 wrote:

The only two games where I think we could lose are tomorrow and at UNM. I think we probably split those two. We "should" win all the other games.

I will speak 4 Kitic. Above - he meant to put tomorrow and at SDSU. This is the first and only itme I have been 100% certain that Kitic will agree that I am corect.

I stand corrected. So much for my curse.

kitic77 wrote:
Please don't even try to compare USU of a few years ago with BYU. BYU has never had an SOS as low as USU is this year and historically is. BYU has always had a higher RPI than USU.



IF BYU gets a 1 seed, it will be because they have earned it THIS year. St. Joe's was a 1 seed and had done even less in the prior seasons than BYU has. IF the Cougs win out, there is NO way we won't be a 1 seed.

For the LAST time - I WASN'T comparing USU from a few years ago to BYU today! If you recall, USU DIDN'T EVEN MAKE THE TOURNEY THAT YEAR! I was simply using them as an example that just because rankings and records suggest that a "mid major" deserves a particular seed (or inclusion at all, in USU's case), that doesn't mean that they'll get it! BYU can finish 33-1 and #1 in the RPI, have the "profile" of a #1 seed, and still get passed up for some 3 loss Big East team (read: UCONN) just because they are in the Big East and BYU is in the MWC.



I'm sorry if this is going over your head.