Which is more likely?

Given ONLY these two choices, which is the more likely scenario? A vote for either does not mean that's what you think will happen, just that it is more likely than the other.

I went with the Final Four, because I think BYU is looking at 3 seed right now which means going up against a 14 seed from the like the Atlantic Sun conference.

Wouldn't the math geeks have some kind of equation showing that the sequence of events needed to make a final four run is more difficult to obtain than the odds of a one game flameout - no matter who it is against (ie UCLA)

It's a tough one, because as abyufan said, it seems statistically easier to lose one game than win several. However, as long as BYU stays consistent where it is, our seeding should be such that a one game flame out is less likely than a several game run.

I already called BYU beating sds twice and unlv twice. I think those 4 wins will carry through the unlv tourney and BYU will win out. That'll be enough momentum to get us at least to the sweaty 16.

It all depends on seeding. I'm going to assume that we are going to do better this year than in the past which means we'll do better than a 7 seed. Anything from 6 and better makes for a much easier 1st weekend.

Why is everyone overlooking CSU, that's not going to be a cake walk this year.I'll be at the game tomorrow night on my way to Gilbert AZ.Hope to see you all there. Morey.

montanafan wrote:
Why is everyone overlooking CSU, that's not going to be a cake walk this year.I'll be at the game tomorrow night on my way to Gilbert AZ.Hope to see you all there. Morey.

Agreed, one of the bigger games for MWC play.

Forgot to ask, when is Mars comming back, really enjoyed reading his posts.Thanks Morey.

montanafan wrote:
Forgot to ask, when is Mars comming back, really enjoyed reading his posts.Thanks Morey.

I think that's up to him from what it sounds like. But I don't have the inside scoop.

I like the faith of all of you!



I just couldn't say that making the final four was MORE likely. Considering the fact that the furthest BYU has gone in the tourney in the last 2 decades was the second round. This team really is a special one, but based on the history of BYU laying an egg in the first round, I had to go with flaming out in round 1 being more likely.



With that being said, I do think this BYU team will make the sweet 16 and maybe even the elite 8 if the seeding and location goes in our favor, but it never does, so sweet 16 seems more likely.

If BYU is ranked #4 or higher, it would be a bigger upset for them to go out in round #1 to a 9-12 seed than it would be for them to win marginal upsets and get to the final four.



I put their chances at a first-round loss (at this point where a 4 or better seed is predicted) at almost nil.

As a REAList I REALly struggle with this kind of question. I could answer it and the answer would smack of mathematics and be bogged down in pessimism about seeding and matchups based on past history. So I begged off for now. But if you tied me up and threatened to kill my wife and all of my kids, even though that raises complex trade-offs too, TIC TIC TIC, I would go mathematical right now.



Please ask this question again in March. Better yet, give more options. Do it before I beat you to it, because I would not be ashamed to steal the idea.



By then, we know how SDSU twice and other key games and non-key games went, the MWC UNLV trap Tourney too. If BYU survives all of that unscathed, I will disavow realism and math and stats and probability and predict a NC.



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Cougarbib2 wrote:
As a REAList I REALly struggle with this kind of question. I could answer it and the answer would smack of mathematics and be bogged down in pessimism about seeding and matchups based on past history. So I begged off for now. But if you tied me up and threatened to kill my wife and all of my kids, even though that raises complex trade-offs too, TIC TIC TIC, I would go mathematical right now.



Please ask this question again in March. Better yet, give more options. Do it before I beat you to it, because I would not be ashamed to steal the idea.



By then, we know how SDSU twice and other key games and non-key games went, the MWC UNLV trap Tourney too. If BYU survives all of that unscathed, I will disavow realism and math and stats and probability and predict a NC.



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That's not much of a ledge you're going out on. If BYU were to Win from now through the tournament, they would be legitimate condenders for the NC on most people's lists. It would be a monumental task to beat the entire mwc twice and some three times, ending the season with one loss. BYU would have proven they belong in the NC prediction talks so I think your math and stats and reason would actually support Your BYU prediction so you wouldn't really be throwing reason to the wind at all. Make the prediction today and you can claim you are throwing reason to the wind.



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[quote="livin the dream"]I like the faith of all of you!



" This team really is a special one, but based on the history of BYU laying an egg in the first round, I had to go with flaming out in round 1 being more likely."



I think that this team has a special player, a good player (Jax) and a couple of solid players. For it to be special, Davies needs to bring his best games on a regular basis, not every once in awhile. I know we're all hyped up after Jimmer's 47 and a unlv team that is not as strong as last year. Now, if this team beats sdsu and unm on the road and takes care the rest of the conf. i will be more convinced this is a special team. Otherwise, one loss to sdsu at home or even unm at the pit and this team will become to many fans, Jimmer, Jax and "The special Ed's."



Out in 1st round--easy probability mathematics--based on the current and realistic contexts of not marching through the mwc first not to mention receiving a 3 seed. lets check end of feb.

Cougarbib2 wrote:
As a REAList I REALly struggle with this kind of question. I could answer it and the answer would smack of mathematics and be bogged down in pessimism about seeding and matchups based on past history. So I begged off for now. But if you tied me up and threatened to kill my wife and all of my kids, even though that raises complex trade-offs too, TIC TIC TIC, I would go mathematical right now.



Please ask this question again in March. Better yet, give more options. Do it before I beat you to it, because I would not be ashamed to steal the idea.



By then, we know how SDSU twice and other key games and non-key games went, the MWC UNLV trap Tourney too. If BYU survives all of that unscathed, I will disavow realism and math and stats and probability and predict a NC.



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What a cop-out.

Depending on what BYU's seeding is, a Final Four run could be more likely than an upset. If BYU is a three seed, which is possible if they finish with just 3 losses.



There have been 15 14-3 upsets since 1986 and only two since 1999. So overall, that's a .150 winning pct. overall but just a .045 the last 11 years. I'll have to do some research to see what the pct is of #3 seeds in the final four.



A quick count shows 13 three seeds in the Final Four since 1986. So mathematically, that's a .130 chance.

I think we are getting a head of ourselves. We have some issues in our backcourt that could really make it hard for a deep tourney run.



lets see how we do against sdsu before we start thinking about 1 2 3 and 4 seeds. We still have a lot of games to play.



That said we are in an amazing position right now. I think that we lose one more game which means we are going to at least the sweet sixteen with a great chance of going deeper if jimmer and jax can keep playing at such a high level.

jonnylingo wrote:
I think we are getting a head of ourselves. We have some issues in our backcourt that could really make it hard for a deep tourney run.

I think you meant to say frontcourt, because I don't know what Emery/Fredette issues might make a deep tourney run difficult.

snoscythe wrote:

I think we are getting a head of ourselves. We have some issues in our backcourt that could really make it hard for a deep tourney run.

I think you meant to say frontcourt, because I don't know what Emery/Fredette issues might make a deep tourney run difficult.

I think your right.