BYU will beat unlv

I'm calling it. It's time. BYU out rebounds big time and unlv just won't be as excited this time around. Oh, and we have Jimmer and an awesome crew. I could add it all depends on the refs and pregnant ladies getting punched in the face in the stands, but i'll leave it at the optimistic end.



We're playing poorly against Fres Pac, but this will fire Rose up to work 'em during practice and we'll be ready for a big W on wed.

Not if UNLV shoots 90% from the field like they ALWAYS do against BYU in vegas.

We're actually getting some breaks at playing UNLV this week. 1) It's a weekday game. 2) The students are back yet. 3) UNLV is in a shooting slump. (haven't shot above 50% in a month) 4) UNLV has a poor assist to turnover ratio (220 ast to 192 to [BYU is 211 to 156])

Good points Kitic. But I always worry regression to the mean. Nothing like a game against byu to correct shooting percentage. The trend year to year doesn't support unlv shooting bad against byu, even though the trend this year does.

Further, unlv is hasn't been playing great bc they are just warming up for the unlv tourney where theycan secure their ticket for the Big Dance.

Die MWC! DIE unlv tourney.!



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We're about due for a win at UNLV...

Between UNLV being due for a good shooting night and BYU due for a win at UNLV, BYU is more due.



UNLV is also due a bad shooting night against BYU at home for a change.



BYU hasn't won at UNLV since Feb 2005. UNLV's home shooting vs BYU last 9 games:

Mar 2010: FG: 55.6% 3P: 42.1%

Feb 2010: FG: 52.5% 3P: 52.5%

Feb 2009: FG: 44.4% 3P: 41.7%

Jan 2008: FG: 40.4% 3P: 40.0%

Mar 2008: FG: 41.8% 3P: 45.0%

Jan 2007: FG: 48.3% 3P: 33.3%

Mar 2007: FG: 45.0% 3P: 40.0%

Jan 2006: FG: 49.2% 3P: 26.7%

Feb 2005: FG: 39.1% 3P: 17.6%

My prediction?... Some key players on our team get into foul trouble early, while UNLV isn't as unfortunate. They shoot lights out and beat us by 10. Also Jimmer's streak of 6 plus games with over 25 points, (soon to be 7 after the game tonight), is snapped and he somehow manages 18. With lots of forced shots, and ending with a lower than average shooting percentage on the night.

Thats about the way it usually goes against UNLV on the road.

We're a 5 seed with or without the three big road losses in the conference, assuming we win all the others we're expected to.



A win is gravy... any road losses to unm, unlv, and sdsu dont' hurt much because their rpis are all respectible and will only improve in conference.



We beat UNLV at their place though and we could be playing for a 3-4 seed, and the drivers seat for the conference championship so there certainly is incentive to win.



I'm just glad we'll be healthy by then

kitic77 wrote:
Between UNLV being due for a good shooting night and BYU due for a win at UNLV, BYU is more due.



UNLV is also due a bad shooting night against BYU at home for a change.



BYU hasn't won at UNLV since Feb 2005. UNLV's home shooting vs BYU last 9 games:

Mar 2010: FG: 55.6% 3P: 42.1%

Feb 2010: FG: 52.5% 3P: 52.5%

Feb 2009: FG: 44.4% 3P: 41.7%

Jan 2008: FG: 40.4% 3P: 40.0%

Mar 2008: FG: 41.8% 3P: 45.0%

Jan 2007: FG: 48.3% 3P: 33.3%

Mar 2007: FG: 45.0% 3P: 40.0%

Jan 2006: FG: 49.2% 3P: 26.7%

Feb 2005: FG: 39.1% 3P: 17.6%

This just makes me mad.



Hey Kitic. If you're bored, why not look up UNLV's shooting percentage for either the game BEFORE or AFTER the BYU game...maybe season averages would be a better comparison. either way, It'll make me MORE mad.



:angry: :angry:

I almost want this win more than I want a sweet sixteen trip, especially since this could be our last opportunity before for awhile, just because about the only thing Rose hasn't been able to do is win in Vegas. Of course I know that's short sighted and need to keep a big picture perspective. But I just really want this win and worry that the Rebs will get up for the game just in time to break my heart again. That is, after they've recently lost on the home floor to UCSB of course. It is nice to think about the reasons Kitic pointed out that might eliminate some of UNLV's usual advantages being a mid-week game and all and the students not having returned yet (hopefully).



It also would be nice to shut up all the Rebel and Waahhztec fans that commented on the recent Jackson comments:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/20333/byus-emery-one-loss-season-is-possible" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

gmj81 wrote:
I almost want this win more than I want a sweet sixteen trip, especially since this could be our last opportunity before for awhile, just because about the only thing Rose hasn't been able to do is win in Vegas.

I was talking to a fellow BYU fan at Church today and told him I'd rather lose both regular season games to UNLV and beat them in the final of the UNLV invite in March to drop them out of the tourney because the MWC somehow only manages 3 teams in and vault us to a 4 or 5 seed in the process.



Go Cougs!!!

J. Child

Ammon, ID

gmj81 wrote:
It also would be nice to shut up all the Rebel and Waahhztec fans that commented on the recent Jackson comments:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/20333/byus-emery-one-loss-season-is-possible" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some of those comments are just willfully ingorant. The Rebel and Aztec fans act as if you asked Kwahi Leonard or Tre'Von Willis the same question: Do you think you can win all your remaining games?



They would answer. "No. I think we can probably 13 or 14 of them but not all 16. There's no way."



Please, they would all answer exactly like Jax. "Yeah, I think we can every game left on our schedule. I'm not garaunteeing victories, but I think we have a chance to win each of them."



They just hate BYU and don't want to listen to reason or logic or anything that may take away that hate. It's all they have and they know BYU is leaving them for bigger and better things and they're bitter, jealous and spiteful. I can't wait to be done with these guys.

Historically, BYU does not match up well with physical teams on thecroad or with MWC officiating in Las Vegas. I worry about a UCLA type outing. If we do get the foul calls - I worry about our free throw shooting - depending on who gets the shots. Jimmer and Jackson will nail them? A couple of other guys will do OK. But 5 or 6 guys struggle at times.



If we get good outside shooting and free throw shooting from the Collinsworth brothers and Abuo and OK free throw shooting from JA if he has to play due to foul trouble for our bigs - BYU will win despite turnovers and being out rebounded.



I think the BYU defense will keep UNLV shooting in a beatable range although I do expect them to shoot better than they have been shooting.



I hope I am wrong and BYU goes red hot on outside shooting and free throw shooting opening up Davies and Hartsock and CC to pound down some garbage shots down low and we give UNLV a well and long deserved beat down.



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I told y'all.