BYU under Anae vs "decent" defenses

So I went through to see how "bad" BYU was against decent defense's. I used a top 40 defense (using final ypg allowed rankings as my standard) and looked at what BYU did against them. I didn't include FCS teams in my numbers.



From 2005-2010 BYU played 23 Top 40 defenses. Here are our averages in those 23 games.

W/L: 12-11.

Points: 24.6

Total Yards: 382.3

Rush Yards: 102.4

Yards per rush: 3.1

PER: 126.36

Turnovers: 2

3rd Down: 42.9%

TOP: 30:53

20+ yard Plays: 4.2

Punts: 5



For a comparison, against non-decent defense (40th or worse) here is what we did:

W/L: 41-10

Points: 38.9

Total Yards: 469.2

Rush Yards: 182.9

Yards per rush: 4.6

PER: 167.20

Turnovers: 1.3

3rd Down: 58.7%

20+ yard Plays: 4.4

Punts: 2.8

I think PER bothers me the most (aside fromt he record). It is the one that you shouldn't expect a dropoff in or at least a very minimal dropoff. YPC really hurts too but I expect that from a "good" defense.

I'm ignorant, what's PER and RER again?

PER is Passer Efficiency Rating and RER is the Receiver Efficiency Rating. There really isn't a RER, I just take the PER rating and apply it to receivers, I go back through the play-by-play to find out how many attempts each receiver had.



Remember the PER magic number is 140, if you get to that number you win and score a lot of points. You can search some my old posts on PER and see some of the numbers.

If anyone would like me to crunch any other numbers (i.e. vs Opponent X or vs Opponents in the top 20, etc.) let me know and I can post those as well.

kitic77 wrote:
If anyone would like me to crunch any other numbers (i.e. vs Opponent X or vs Opponents in the top 20, etc.) let me know and I can post those as well.

I don't have any requests. But thanks for all these hard numbers. You must have assembled an impressive spreadsheet!

Good work. Although I'm not sure how I feel about these numbers. I mean, these numbers reflect what you'd expect (to a large part) in that all of the sats are supposed to go down against top defenses; but really - "Top 40" is getting pretty mediocre. I'm betting that we go from a virtual "coin toss" against the top 40 to a losing record against the top 20. which goes to show that good defenses bet a good offense.

kitic77 wrote:
If anyone would like me to crunch any other numbers (i.e. vs Opponent X or vs Opponents in the top 20, etc.) let me know and I can post those as well.

vs. TCU (I'm assuming its going to be pretty pathetic)

I've been preachin to get rid of that guy for a loooong time.... just sayin'

kitic77 wrote:
So I went through to see how "bad" BYU was against decent defense's. I used a top 40 defense (using final ypg allowed rankings as my standard) and looked at what BYU did against them. I didn't include FCS teams in my numbers.



From 2005-2010 BYU played 23 Top 40 defenses. Here are our averages in those 23 games.

W/L: 12-11.

Points: 24.6

Total Yards: 382.3

Rush Yards: 102.4

Yards per rush: 3.1

PER: 126.36

Turnovers: 2

3rd Down: 42.9%

TOP: 30:53

20+ yard Plays: 4.2

Punts: 5



For a comparison, against non-decent defense (40th or worse) here is what we did:

W/L: 41-10

Points: 38.9

Total Yards: 469.2

Rush Yards: 182.9

Yards per rush: 4.6

PER: 167.20

Turnovers: 1.3

3rd Down: 58.7%

20+ yard Plays: 4.4

Punts: 2.8

So what you are saying is that its harder for anae to win when he plays better teams but wins easier when when he plays crappier teams. Yeah, he needs to be fired for that. Just kidding, I catch your drift. thanks for the work.

What I want to know is how BYU's numbers against these defenses compared to what those defenses allowed on average. I know it is worse than when BYU plays patsies, but I think we all knew that already--that's why they are Top 40 defenses. I think the real meat of the analysis lies in how BYU's O fares compared to the others who played them.

If we wanted to be consistent and fair, we could evaluate how our special teams perform against top teams and especially how our DEFENSE stacks up against top offenses or how our HC stacks up against top coaches.



If we were honest with ourselves we would admit that our recruiting is Top 30 at best on average, our defense is top 30 at best on average, and our special teams aren't all that special, and our coaches - top to bottom - unless you want to go with Doman being best QB coach in the country, year in and year out - they do not stack up to our BCS NC dreams.



If anything, year to year, with rare exception, our offense is Top 25 or better and carries not only it's own weight but covers for weaknesses elsewhere - including defense.



In all fairness, the offense outplayed the defense most of this year - early and at the end - exception being post USU for about 4 weeks.



We will excuse everything else at BYU for not being top tier - but not football offense. That is just how it is and whomever coaches the offense going forward will get a very short honeymoon - especially given the number of fans who assume Jake Heaps will lead us to the promised lands. If he does not - there will be new scapegoats.



Basketball can stink it up and lose to UCLA and barely beat a Weber State team that lost a key player - and hardly a whimper - certainly no fire the coach movements.





I guess BB fans are a little more realistic.



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snoscythe wrote:
What I want to know is how BYU's numbers against these defenses compared to what those defenses allowed on average. I know it is worse than when BYU plays patsies, but I think we all knew that already--that's why they are Top 40 defenses. I think the real meat of the analysis lies in how BYU's O fares compared to the others who played them.

This, plus how other teams across the country fare as well. I was actually impressed with the numbers against top 40 defenses, I thought it would be a lot worse.



If we are trying to evaluate how good of a job Anae has done, need to know what is the "standard" in the industry. Does Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, etc. have similar differential or is it vastly different?

33311710 wrote:

If anyone would like me to crunch any other numbers (i.e. vs Opponent X or vs Opponents in the top 20, etc.) let me know and I can post those as well.

vs. TCU (I'm assuming its going to be pretty pathetic)

Give me a bit and I'll post BYU vs TCU the last six years, plus TCU's average D that year.

I'll try later today to narrow it further to just vs Top 20 and how BYU compared to those D's averages as well.

I'm going to list three defensive numbers for each stat, the first will be TCU's average, the second what BYU did and the third what TCU's average is without the BYU number.

TCU Defense 2010:

PPG: 11.4, 3, 12.2

Rush Yards: 89.2, 56, 84.5

Pass Yards: 126.3, 91, 118.7

PER: 93.13, 58.81, 96.92



TCU Defense 2009:

PPG: 12.8, 7, 13.3

Rush Yards: 80.2, 110, 77.8

Pass Yards: 159.5, 188, 157.1

PER: 92.26, 112.40, 90.45



TCU Defense 2008:

PPG: 11.3, 7, 13.3

Rush Yards: 47.1, 28, 49.1

Pass Yards: 170.7, 274, 162.1

PER: 97.86, 97.66, 97.89



TCU Defense 2007:

PPG: 18.7, 27, 18.0

Rush Yards: 103.5, 112, 102.8

Pass Yards: 220.2, 305, 213.1

PER: 107.81, 120.27, 106.51



TCU Defense 2006:

PPG: 12.3, 31, 10.7

Rush Yards: 60.8, 72, 59.9

Pass Yards: 174.1, 321, 161.8

PER: 102.28, 161.79, 95.97



TCU Defense 2010:

PPG: 18.6, 50, 15.7

Rush Yards: 107.9, 97, 108.9

Pass Yards: 221.2, 517, 194.3

PER: 103.33, 168.49, 94.44



TCU Defense 2010:

PPG: 11.4, 3, 12.2

Rush Yards: 89.2, 56, 84.5

Pass Yards: 126.3, 91, 118.7

PER: 93.13, 58.81, 96.92

Can you interprete for me?

scott715 wrote:
Can you interpret for me?

Here's my take. BYU used to light TCU on fire, that abruptly stopped in 2008 when Hall was a Junior. Hall played terrible against TCU, I don't know if you can pin this on Hall, or on Anae, probably a little of both. Also, the offensive line was porous against TCU and Hall had someone in his grill all game.



Either way, TCU knew exactly what BYU was going to do a year before BYU played the game. BYU did NOT have an answer on offense and got exposed every year after 2007.



I don't think Anae is a bad coach, he's been criticized for not winning the big games and most people say he won't ever win a NC. I think he will. Just not at BYU (see Chow and Crowton). He's done great with what he's had to work with at BYU, He'll need even more talent to get his team in the NC hunt. I think it's as simple as that. Bronco knows after this many years what he can get out of Anae, if Anae isn't meeting the offensive expectations anymore, time to give someone else a shot.



I'll continue to support Anae if he's back next year (sounds like he's gone) but it will be a relief to get some fresh offense as well. Basically, I trust Bronco to do the right thing here.

snoscythe wrote:
What I want to know is how BYU's numbers against these defenses compared to what those defenses allowed on average. I know it is worse than when BYU plays patsies, but I think we all knew that already--that's why they are Top 40 defenses. I think the real meat of the analysis lies in how BYU's O fares compared to the others who played them.

Timing makes a difference - BYU on both O and D would play better - more competitively - last 4 or 5 games and especially now, than they did early when they played the tougher teams while lacking experience and going from over confident through denial to unconfident before Bronco grabbed the reins mid season.



If they all lined up today, we would repeat all of our wins with only UW and SDSU being a challenge and we would have Utah, AFA and Nevada as similar to those two losing maybe 1 of those 5 at most. We would kill USU. So add 2-4 wins. TCU would probably still dominate us. FSU might still beat us convincingly at their crib although I give us a 20-30% chance at an upset.



So hard to compare how others did against the tough defenses if the others were playing at their peak as a team, or had a key injury, or the tough D had a key injury, etc.



Rebuilding on both sides of the ball at the same time is always a disaster. It usually trashes a full season or more. The journey had incredible lows this year but the turnaround was pretty dramatic and sudden when it came and the future looks bright.



I am excited about 2011 and the wait will be torture - especially without an overhaul of the college football landscape to serve as a distraction.



2010 will be remembered by historians as the most dramatic year in BYU athletic history save maybe 1984 after time erases the pain. And we were all here for the ride.



I watched The Blind Side this holiday and it evoked many sentiments and parallels - but in the end makes me hope that we will have the entire Reynolds family on the team to protect Jake Heaps next year along with Kariya, Hague, Braden and Braden, and others next year and to open up big holes for JJ and J. Turn Philips and Apo loose to join Hoffman, Jacobs, and others while a couple of tight ends step up and as I tried to say earlier, but had a typo, the offense will start 2011 better than it ended 2010 unless we have worse coaching.



Hopefully changes, if any, will be prayerful - then increased exposure will be a good thing. I have a few more worries about the defense than I do about the offense in 2011 unless Heaps gets injured. In that case - I hope Nelson, Lark, or Munns can step up on an instant's notice.



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Kitic, these are nice numbers, thanks. (Your last set of numbers in the vs. TCU post is redundant and the penultimate set is for 2005, right?)



I'm going to assume that over the course of Anae offenses (2005-2010) that our level of competition was roughly equal to Utah's and TCU's, except of course for their BCS games. So what I think would be most useful would be to see the statistics in your first post on this thread side by side with the same calculations for the regular season (excluding bowls) for Utah, TCU and a composite of the national championship teams over those years against top 40 teams. Utah and TCU have been our chief competitors over this span and we need to see BYU's numbers in this context. While the composite of NC teams isn't a "fair" comparison, it does show what we need to be shooting for to be that team. Those comparisons, to my mind, would give us a better sense of how good of a job Anae has done versus both our reasonable and lofty expectations. Thanks, Santa!