Who does Heaps Catch

So I logged on to Cougarstats and pulled up the stats for the current top 4 QBs on BYU's all-time lists. Here is what Jake would have to average his last three years to catch them in each category.



Detmer: 958 completions, 1530 attempts, 15031 yards, 121 TDs, 65 INTs,

Heaps: 246 comp per year, 382 att, 4238 yards, 35 TDs and 19 INTs (I don't anticipate Jake coming anywhere near Detmer's INT numbers)



Hall: 903 comp, 1382 att, 11365 yards, 94 TDs, 40 INTs

Heaps: 228 comp, 333 att, 3016 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs



Beck: 885 comp, 1418 att, 11021 yards, 79 TDs, 34 INTs

Heaps: 222 comp, 345 att, 2902 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs



McMahon: 653 comp, 1056 att, 9536 yards, 84 TDs, 34 INTs

Heaps: 145 comp, 224 att, 2407 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs



If you take Heaps' last five games and extrapolate that out over a 12-game season and times it by 3, and assuming no other improvement here's what Jake could produce his last three years:

713 comp, 1109 att, 9065 yards, 94 TDs, 14 INTs

giving him career totals of:

932 comp, 1493 attempts, 11381 yards, 109 TDs, 23 INTs.



Thoughts?

So he is projected to beat Hall even with receivers that can't catch the ball routinely?



Awesome. I wonder how he'll do with Apo, Hoffman/Jacobsen as a 2ndary target, and Phillips in the slot...?

BYU's offense is way too balanced for Heaps to approach Detmer. I see him averaging between 270-300 yards a game with about 30-35 TDS a season. He'll pass Hall if he does that and stays 3 more years and remains healthy.

First if Heaps is greatly successful, and I believe he will be, he will only spend two more years at BYU. Heaps announced he is not going on a mission (which I have said all along). I believe Heaps has had two goals, to be a BYU QB, and to be an NFL QB, he will take the later at the first opportunity.



Second, Detmer has as many yards as he did because the BYU defense all his playing years was pretty bad, so he had to just keep throwing and throwing and throwing to try to win the games; that will likely not be the case during his tenure at BYU, so his numbers may not be as gaudy as they could be if the BYU defense were awful.



Third, Heaps has an arm like no other prior BYU QB, so I expect, the longer he plays, the more deep passes we will see, shorter time of possession, more TDs, but fewer attempts and fewer completions than say, Detmer or Beck or Hall. Also, Heaps will have better receivers, I believe, than any of the other QBs had.



I also expect, that the coaching will understand that Heaps may be here only two more years, so they will begin developing his successor (Lark, Munns, etc) and giving them playing time in games where we are up by four or five scores in the second half. And the better Heaps does, the less time he will be at BYU, although I can't see him leaving after next year, but after his junior year, if he has been as impressive as we all expect him to be, he will go pro.

bball wrote:
I also expect, that the coaching will understand that Heaps may be here only two more years, so they will begin developing his successor (Lark, Munns, etc) and giving them playing time in games where we are up by four or five scores in the second half.

You realize that neither of those guys will be here after three years, right?

kitic77 wrote:
If you take Heaps' last five games and extrapolate that out over a 12-game season and times it by 3...

Thoughts?

My first thought is you're selling the guy REAL short if you assume he's not ever gonna play in a bowl game again!

;)

I'd expect 4 more games than the above calculation: 3 bowl games, and a probable 13th regular season game his Senior year due to the trip to Hawaii (would have been a 13th next year, but considering we had to stoop to Idaho State just to get to 12, there's REALLY not much we could get for number 13).



What do the numbers look like adding 4 more such games?

GolfDiveNCougs wrote:

If you take Heaps' last five games and extrapolate that out over a 12-game season and times it by 3...

Thoughts?

My first thought is you're selling the guy REAL short if you assume he's not ever gonna play in a bowl game again!

;)

I'd expect 4 more games than the above calculation: 3 bowl games, and a probable 13th regular season game his Senior year due to the trip to Hawaii (would have been a 13th next year, but considering we had to stoop to Idaho State just to get to 12, there's REALLY not much we could get for number 13).



What do the numbers look like adding 4 more such games?

Doh! Good catch. And to think just the other day, I posted a poll about how many bowl games Heaps would win as the starter. How did I not include them. I'll calculate those numbers and repost later tonight. Maybe I'll add 4 1/2 games worth.

I don't think Heaps will be playing enough 4th quarters to catch Hall (maybe even Beck). Especially with the defenses he will have and the head coach that isn't concerned with running up scores or stats.

ProV1 wrote:
I don't think Heaps will be playing enough 4th quarters to catch Hall (maybe even Beck). Especially with the defenses he will have and the head coach that isn't concerned with running up scores or stats.

Are you kidding? He barely need to average 3000 yards to catch Hall - and that was without me factoring in bowl games and a potential extra home game due to the Hawaii exception. He threw for 2300 yards this year and that splitting time in the first game, only throwing few passes in the 2nd and playing at the worst level of any starting BYU QB in history through the next four or five games. If he stays healthy, he's a mortal lock to pass Hall and Beck in every category.

kitic77 wrote:

I don't think Heaps will be playing enough 4th quarters to catch Hall (maybe even Beck). Especially with the defenses he will have and the head coach that isn't concerned with running up scores or stats.

Are you kidding? He barely need to average 3000 yards to catch Hall - and that was without me factoring in bowl games and a potential extra home game due to the Hawaii exception. He threw for 2300 yards this year and that splitting time in the first game, only throwing few passes in the 2nd and playing at the worst level of any starting BYU QB in history through the next four or five games. If he stays healthy, he's a mortal lock to pass Hall and Beck in every category.

To be honest I didn't break out the slide rule I was just making a point that he'll be good, the defense will be good, many games will be over early, I can't envision many shoot outs like the good ole days of bend and don't break defense, and I see Bronco running the ball more with leads, especially with the talented and trustworthy backs we have and will have. So crunch your numbers, I may be wrong. I'm more interested in wins than records but I am no one of consequence.

Okay, I re-ran the numbers. Instead of extrapolating out 36 more games, I went out 40 games (to include three more bowls and one potential extra home game for a trip to Hawaii).

Here's where Heaps "might" finish:

1011 comp, 1616 att, 12388 yards, 119 TD, 25 INTs

How long before Heaps has 300 yards passing in a game? How many 300 yard games did Detmer, Hall, and Beck have during their careers? I look forward to when Wrubel has to do co-MVP's each game because they don't want to only recognize Heaps every game like what happened during the Detmer years.

Detmer had a very long streak of 300 yard passing games. I want to say that Beck had 19 300 yard games and Hall 21.

kitic77 wrote:
Detmer had a very long streak of 300 yard passing games. I want to say that Beck had 19 300 yard games and Hall 21.

Detmer had 19 consecutive and 33 over his career (from back when the stats didn't count bowl games).

kitic77 wrote:
McMahon: 653 comp, 1056 att, 9536 yards, 84 TDs, 34 INTs

Heaps: 145 comp, 224 att, 2407 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs



If you take Heaps' last five games and extrapolate that out over a 12-game season and times it by 3, and assuming no other improvement here's what Jake could produce his last three years:

713 comp, 1109 att, 9065 yards, 94 TDs, 14 INTs

giving him career totals of:

932 comp, 1493 attempts, 11381 yards, 109 TDs, 23 INTs.



Thoughts?

Isn't stat inflation sad? Why do McMahon's numbers seem so mortal?



We have come a long way in 30 years. To think that all Heaps would have to do is basically repeat this year (passing yards) to match McMahon's total that was in the stratosphere in his day, is telling.



I expect Heaps to pass all but Detmer in everything. The question about matching/exceeding Detmer's totals is if Heaps is throwing the ball down field more than Max was. Getting equal throws won't be the issue, but equal yards is very, very difficult.

I don't know about you guys, but I think you have it all backwards. If I were Heaps, I wouldn't have any desire to catch Young, Detmer, Beck, or any of the older QBs from the Y when I could catch something like this and she could keep me forever.



http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/byu-cheerleader.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

urroner wrote:
I don't know about you guys, but I think you have it all backwards. If I were Heaps, I wouldn't have any desire to catch Young, Detmer, Beck, or any of the older QBs from the Y when I could catch something like this and she could keep me forever.



http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/byu-cheerleader.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

So you are saying Jake should quit the football team and join the cheer squad to catch falling cheerleaders?



You are crazy. :D

Y12 wrote:

I don't know about you guys, but I think you have it all backwards. If I were Heaps, I wouldn't have any desire to catch Young, Detmer, Beck, or any of the older QBs from the Y when I could catch something like this and she could keep me forever.



http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/byu-cheerleader.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

So you are saying Jake should quit the football team and join the cheer squad to catch falling cheerleaders?



You are crazy. :D

As Charlie Brown would say "Brother!!!"



:sulk: :sulk: :sulk:



:lol: ;)

Y12 wrote:

McMahon: 653 comp, 1056 att, 9536 yards, 84 TDs, 34 INTs

Heaps: 145 comp, 224 att, 2407 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs



If you take Heaps' last five games and extrapolate that out over a 12-game season and times it by 3, and assuming no other improvement here's what Jake could produce his last three years:

713 comp, 1109 att, 9065 yards, 94 TDs, 14 INTs

giving him career totals of:

932 comp, 1493 attempts, 11381 yards, 109 TDs, 23 INTs.



Thoughts?

Isn't stat inflation sad? Why do McMahon's numbers seem so mortal?



We have come a long way in 30 years. To think that all Heaps would have to do is basically repeat this year (passing yards) to match McMahon's total that was in the stratosphere in his day, is telling.



I expect Heaps to pass all but Detmer in everything. The question about matching/exceeding Detmer's totals is if Heaps is throwing the ball down field more than Max was. Getting equal throws won't be the issue, but equal yards is very, very difficult.

McMahon only started two full years and part of a third. He was passed by Detmer who started three years and saw significant time in a fourth. He was passed by Beck in yards who started three years and several games in a fourth. He was passed by Hall how started three years and never missed a game.



In fact, there's a good chance Heaps could catch Detmer in everything but passing yards.