Sports Illustrated says we lose to UCLA

Seth Davis at Sports Illustrated is picking UCLA over BYU.



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/seth_davis/12/17/weekend-picks/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I find his reasoning to be rather weak.

I found it especially odd that he compared containing Jimmer to the problems that BYU will have containing some sophmore I've never heard of.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14456059/friday-look-ahead-weekend-filled-with-debuts-returns" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now we have CBSSports with the same prediction. :roll: :roll: :roll:

rblack wrote:
I found it especially odd that he compared containing Jimmer to the problems that BYU will have containing some sophmore I've never heard of.

Gee, I hope BYU doesn't get overwhelmed by one of the best players in the PAC10! How are we ever going to contain such an athletic player from such a great conference?



Oh, wait, we'll do what we did to Arizona's Derrick Williams last week. Honeycutt does seem like a decent player and rebounder, but let's see how efficient his offensive game is (which is already pretty inefficient) against a very good defensive team. And since it's a neutral game, I think the basket unfamiliarity will benefit BYU more than UCLA since we haven't played at home in a month.



UCLA and Williams' current form (last three games): W/L 2-1.

Points available percentage: .426 (Williams .305)

True Shooting percentage: .493 (Williams .376)

Assist/Turnover: 42/33 (Williams 6/7)

Opponents PAP: .466

Opponents TS%: .534

Opponents A/T: 36/31



BYU's Last Three Games:

BYU PAP: .546

BYU TS%: .628

BYU A/T: 45/34

BYU Opp PAP: .381

BYU Opp TS%: .437

BYU Opp A/T: 27/47

the reasoning behind both is poor. Brother Davis is comparing controlling Honeycutt to controlling Jimmer who has been on a tear for the last 2 weeks. Brother Parrish picked it as an upset just for the heck of it... I'm not impressed with either evaluation but there are probably hundreds of D1 mens bball games this week so less than spectacular analysis of the actual #'s is to be assumed. I think UCLA hangs with BYU for 10-15 mins but gets run to end the half and to start the second half then promptly bury their heads for the remainder of the game. BYU 81 - UCLA 64.

I dont' agree with why BYU will lose.. but I expect us to lose. Our big man situation has improved drastically since day 1, but the problem is we don't have healthy ones now.



Hartsock... I haven't heard if he'll play



Davies... can't stay out of foul trouble and will be asked to guard a 300 lber



Collinsworth... still on the mend



UCLA has size and I just don't see this being the ideal matchup to use Magnusson and Rogers at the 4. I hope I'm wrong, as the OOC schedule is downhill from here; but I've had this feeling since Hartsock went down that UCLA will get up for us and win.



I would like nothing more than to be wrong but I've been dreading this game all week, simply because we have a lot to lose with the L and not much to gain but saving face with the W.



We're certainly capable of winning though, which is a departure from 4-5 years ago.

While I didn't doubt we would win the Zona game, I did think it would be a close one. Shame on me for not believing in my team more but I won't make that mistake again, even in the face of the big man troubles. I'm sure the zone will be employed and hopefully we take it right at the big gorilla on offense and get him in early foul trouble. And maybe it won't be a blowout like it ought to be given our shortage of bigs but I won't pick against my team again the rest of the year... or at least until the game in Vegas.

The only chance UCLA has is the refs, but as I understand it they will not be Pac-10 homers so they're screwed. Besides that our only real concern against athletic teams is rebounding. As long as KC and Abouo are on the court with either Davies or Hartsock then UCLA will need to make all their shots because they won't get 2nd chances. No worries from this fan here...

Everyone who is picking BYU to lose is doing so for no reason. "I think BYU is due for a loss" or "There's got to at least one upset this weekend - may as well be BYU" are not reasons.



Do a little research. Find out that Collinsworth might still be out. That Hartsock may not play due to concussion. That Emery may still be hampered by a shin injury.



There are reasons you can find to pick UCLA to win. It wouldn't take you that long to find one.

I've had a bad season about this game all week. I've actually been more nervous for this game than for our football bowl game... how sad is that?



Rogers really needs to beef up. There is no excuse to be that skinny and playing on a ranked NCAA at a 3/4 position (I may be a skinny basketball player, but I've also not 6-foot-whatever Rogers is and playing college ball). Dude needs to put on some meat b/c we really need it in games like this, where many starting bigs are injured.

Rogers is in his first year of D1 ball. He'll likely beef up before he's done. He does play big. He's a very good rebounder despite his lithe build. He will need to step up today, however. It looks like Noah might play, but we're going to need a good game - especially on the defensive/rebounding end of things - from Rogers or Magnusson.



He's fourth on the team in rebounds per 40 minutes. Here are BYU's rebounders per 40 minutes:

Chris Collinsworth: 14

Charles Abouo: 11.5

Brandon Davies: 10.0

Stephen Rogers: 9.9

Logan Magnusson: 9.8

James Anderson: 9.2

Noah Hartsock: 8.4

kitic77 wrote:
Rogers is in his first year of D1 ball. He'll likely beef up before he's done. He does play big. He's a very good rebounder despite his lithe build. He will need to step up today, however. It looks like Noah might play, but we're going to need a good game - especially on the defensive/rebounding end of things - from Rogers or Magnusson.



He's fourth on the team in rebounds per 40 minutes. Here are BYU's rebounders per 40 minutes:

Chris Collinsworth: 14

Charles Abouo: 11.5

Brandon Davies: 10.0

Stephen Rogers: 9.9

Logan Magnusson: 9.8

James Anderson: 9.2

Noah Hartsock: 8.4

A lot of beef on the basketball floor is overrated.

From what I have see of UCLA they would really struggle with a zone. It will take a group rebounding effort but I don't think they can score enough to keep up with us unless we have several more turnovers than I expect.

They new the refs would home cook.

You're both right. Lots of mindless turnovers and home-cooking refs who might as well be Pac-10 cheaters like last time we played @ UCLA.

Blaming hte refs is totally lame. We lost for 3 simple reasons, all 3 of which BYU could control:



1) turnovers. Sorry, but way too many on the road.

2) free throw shooting. Shooting 50% from the line is garbage and cost the team 7-10 pts. How man did we lose by again?

3) rebounding. Gave up way too many 2nd chance points.



Fact is UCLS forced more turnovers and did better on teh glass, which means they were more active and were the aggressors. BYU got what they deserved. Let's hope some lessons were earned in this one.

Lawboy wrote:
Blaming hte refs is totally lame. We lost for 3 simple reasons, all 3 of which BYU could control:



1) turnovers. Sorry, but way too many on the road.

2) free throw shooting. Shooting 50% from the line is garbage and cost the team 7-10 pts. How man did we lose by again?

3) rebounding. Gave up way too many 2nd chance points.



Fact is UCLS forced more turnovers and did better on teh glass, which means they were more active and were the aggressors. BYU got what they deserved. Let's hope some lessons were earned in this one.

Sure, blaming refs is lame. Here's something more lame- lame refs.

Yep, refs didn't cause 18 turnovers, allow UCLA 15 offensive rebounds or shoot 10 more shots. If we do a better job at hanging onto the ball or boxing out, we win. Oh and the refs didn't cause BYU to miss 10 FTs in a 7-pt loss.

kitic77 wrote:
Yep, refs didn't cause 18 turnovers, allow UCLA 15 offensive rebounds or shoot 10 more shots. If we do a better job at hanging onto the ball or boxing out, we win. Oh and the refs didn't cause BYU to miss 10 FTs in a 7-pt loss.

but they did let UCLA's big men, stay in the game, called BS turnovers, and because the big men stayed, they got more 2nd chance.