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RealTimeRPI: BYU projected to go undefeated in basketball?

by redneckjedi · 11/22/2010

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redneckjedi
The dudes at realtimerpi.com have a computer system they claim is 78% accurate. Currently, it projects BYU to finish the regular season undefeated at 29-0. How cool would that be? :D



http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_305_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Problem is, even if we did it, we'd still get a crappy seed for the NCAA tourney. :angry:
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IowaCougar
I'm trying to get my head around them showing BYU with an rpi of 97, yet still favored over everyone, even with lower rpi. And how does Vermont get an RPI of 7?
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redneckjedi
IowaCougar wrote:
I'm trying to get my head around them showing BYU with an rpi of 97, yet still favored over everyone, even with lower rpi. And how does Vermont get an RPI of 7?


Vermont I can explain. They have played #2 UConn and #36 Siena, and they beat Siena. That, combined with the fact that the season is only three games old, gets them to #7. RPI really isn't worth much until there's a significant number of games played.



I can't explain the part where they're favored over everyone. Best guess is that they're using their own power rating methodology to do the simulations or something. There's some RTR rating you can look up over there that has us at #20, which is higher than all of our future opponents, so I expect that to be the case.
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ABYUFAN
I actually have the Cougs going undefeated at 29-0 this season as well, it's good to see that they agree with me ;)
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Mars
redneckjedi wrote:
Currently, it projects BYU to finish the regular season undefeated at 29-0.

The system must be glitched. We still have to play UNLV in Vegas.



I'm betting that we lose one of our next 4 games.
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EM_Puma
I think it was a mistake, as far as polls go, to have scheduled USU this early in the season. Granted, there usually isn't any movement much when the teams ahead of you don't lose much, but it seems like we got very little, if any, mileage from out Aggie win. Of course we would have been tossed far had we lost at home, but it wasn't worth the chance we could have lost. At least when you play them, you want them to already be cruising higher up the ranks than they were and I don't know that you get much mileage from the win even if they keep winning and themselves scale toward the top 35 or so.



It would be an absolutely incredible season to go undefeated, and while the chance exists, I think it hardly probable, but it never hurts that someone else does and they publish the fact.
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Gunk
The possibility certainly exists, but the odds are slim. Before we beat USU, they were projected as having the best odds of going undefeated.



I remember reading somewhere over the summer that the goal of the team was to go undefeated.
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gmj81
I said last year that I thought we might drop 1 or 2 at worst during th regular season. I'm wanting to go with the same prediction this year but since we ended up dropping 4 last year prior to the tourneys, I'll play it "safe" and say we escape the regular season with less than 4 losses.



The toughest non-con challenges left on the schedule are @Creighton, Arizona, @UCLA and UTEP though certainly non of them are unbeatable. As for the MWC foes, SDSU will certainly be a challenge both home and away but I don't think New Mexico will give us too much trouble this year. However, until Dave can prove to me he can win at the T&M, I'm marking that game down as a loss.



So basically, I'm leaving room for a loss in the non-con, a loss to UNLV and a loss to SDSU, and maybe one other head scratcher where Jimmer's just off his mark and the other guys don't pick up the slack. However, I don't think the odds are that great that we don't go undefeated. Certainly all the games are winnable, probably not even any other top 20 teams on the schedule besides SDSU, and with BYU being what I would consider a top 20 team, we "ought" to win nearly all of them and split with SDSU. But of course matchups and just plain off-nights occasionally dictate otherwise,
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Gunk
gmj81 wrote:
I said last year that I thought we might drop 1 or 2 at worst during th regular season. I'm wanting to go with the same prediction this year but since we ended up dropping 4 last year prior to the tourneys, I'll play it "safe" and say we escape the regular season with less than 4 losses.



The toughest non-con challenges left on the schedule are @Creighton, Arizona, @UCLA and UTEP though certainly non of them are unbeatable. As for the MWC foes, SDSU will certainly be a challenge both home and away but I don't think New Mexico will give us too much trouble this year. However, until Dave can prove to me he can win at the T&M, I'm marking that game down as a loss.



So basically, I'm leaving room for a loss in the non-con, a loss to UNLV and a loss to SDSU, and maybe one other head scratcher where Jimmer's just off his mark and the other guys don't pick up the slack. However, I don't think the odds are that great that we don't go undefeated. Certainly all the games are winnable, probably not even any other top 20 teams on the schedule besides SDSU, and with BYU being what I would consider a top 20 team, we "ought" to win nearly all of them and split with SDSU. But of course matchups and just plain off-nights occasionally dictate otherwise,


3 losses is probably a fair assumption. I think this is the first season in awhile where we're playing some good teams, but there isn't a single one that we couldn't win. They'll be some close games. Jimmer is clutch, though.
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BroncoBot
What seed would BYU get after an undefeated regular season? (4-6?) what if they also won the MWC tourney? (3-6?)
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SpiffCoug
declocoug wrote:
What seed would BYU get after an undefeated regular season? (4-6?) what if they also won the MWC tourney? (3-6?)

If BYU went undefeated, they'd be what 34-0? They'd be a #1 seed.
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Schmoe
kitic77 wrote:
What seed would BYU get after an undefeated regular season? (4-6?) what if they also won the MWC tourney? (3-6?)

If BYU went undefeated, they'd be what 34-0? They'd be a #1 seed.


You have to factor in the BYU rule: "BYU, because they will not play on Sunday and inconvenience us slightly, shall get a seed two (2) spots (meaning numbered seeds) lower than what they should have received.

Example: BYU is ranked #10 in the country, deserving a three (3) seed, then they shall receive a five (5) seed.



Also, they shall be matched against the best opponent of the seed they will be facing.

Example: BYU is a 5 seed and will play vs a 12 seed. The 12 seeds available are: 1-29 Northeasternwest State, 1-30 Eastwesterlyniner, 2-31 Nowheresville tech, and 20-10 Big Conference U. BYU would then play 20-10 Big Conference U.
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Italics
no way BYU finishes the season undefeated
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jonnylingo
I think byu is overrated from what i have seen so far. Hope I am wrong.
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SpiffCoug
Italics wrote:
no way BYU finishes the season undefeated

jonnylingo wrote:
I think byu is overrated from what i have seen so far. Hope I am wrong.


Agreed and agreed.
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BroncoBot
kitic77 wrote:
no way BYU finishes the season undefeated

jonnylingo wrote:
I think byu is overrated from what i have seen so far. Hope I am wrong.


Agreed and agreed.

Sigh. Hope all three of us are wrong, I'd be surprised to get out of OOC play unscathed. MWC could be brutal, as always.
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Gunk
declocoug wrote:
Italics wrote:
no way BYU finishes the season undefeated

jonnylingo wrote:
I think byu is overrated from what i have seen so far. Hope I am wrong.


Agreed and agreed.

Sigh. Hope all three of us are wrong, I'd be surprised to get out of OOC play unscathed. MWC could be brutal, as always.


It's possible. Creighton and the Texas Tech or St. Mary's games will certainly pose a challenge. UCLA, UTEP and Arizona won't be cake-walks either, but all those game are winnable, unlike previous seasons where there was a team or two that looked to be near impossible to beat.



One game at a time.



With my blue goggles on, should BYU go undefeated I'm guessing we'll get a 2 seed. We won a tourney game last season and have a future NBA, potential All-American on the team, so the committee will make an exception this year on the +2 seeding rule for BYU and go with a +1 on what we deserve.
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crh55
Mars wrote:
Currently, it projects BYU to finish the regular season undefeated at 29-0.

The system must be glitched. We still have to play UNLV in Vegas.



I'm betting that we lose one of our next 4 games.


Last year was the year we won a game in the NCAA Tourney. This is the year will be the year we beat UNLV at the Thomas & Mack Center.



However, i would rather have 2 wins in the big dance.
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