Common opponents give Utah the edge

Last year before the game with Utah I did a broad comparison of results against BYU and Utah's common opponents, and learned that BYU did 3 points a game better than Utah. Final score confirmed: BYU wins by 3.



This year the common seven opponents end up with Utah a little more than 5 points a game better than BYU. They also had a better differential in five of the seven games. It suggests a final score of 28-23 Utah.



Of course, I have blue goggles on, which gives BYU one more touchdown, for a final score of 30-28.

Take the AFA game out of the equation, then tell us what you find. We are not the same team that played them in week 2. By a mile.

interesting...good points.

I'd also say that TCU didn't play y'all as hard as they could've. They saved quite a few wrinkles for a #5 ranked Utah to find. (and they succeeded greatly!) We were deer in headlights in that one. Sheesh.

I disagree. We stuffed their run game all day and they beat us over the top with Boyce like 3 times for thier scores. Sounds familiar? Difference is, we held them to 31 and stopped their run. you stopped nothing and gave up 47. TCU just had less success vs our D than yours. Because since Bronco took over our D, it has been better than yours vs. common opponents. Espcecially against the run.

Lawboy wrote:
I disagree. We stuffed their run game all day and they beat us over the top with Boyce like 3 times for thier scores. Sounds familiar? Difference is, we held them to 31 and stopped their run. you stopped nothing and gave up 47. TCU just had less success vs our D than yours. Because since Bronco took over our D, it has been better than yours vs. common opponents. Espcecially against the run.

Losing richardson is going to have an impact on our run d.

Lawboy wrote:
I disagree. We stuffed their run game all day and they beat us over the top with Boyce like 3 times for thier scores. Sounds familiar? Difference is, we held them to 31 and stopped their run. you stopped nothing and gave up 47. TCU just had less success vs our D than yours. Because since Bronco took over our D, it has been better than yours vs. common opponents. Espcecially against the run.

That is true. you guys were able to contain the run pretty well. They were really missing Hughes! It's slowly coming back to me. Curse this old mind of mine. LOL.



As for us ... yes ... deer in headlights.

Over 7 games most things even out.



Without AFA, Utah still up by 3 per game.

Without AFA and TCU, Utes back up by almost 5.



BYU scores

UNM +33

TCU -28

SDSU +3

CSU +39

UNLV +48

WYO +24

AFA -21

Total +79



Utah scores

UNM +42

TCU -40

SDSU +4

CSU +53

UNLV +28

WYO +24

AFA +5

Total +116

Common opponents means nothing in this game. Remember 2006? BYU walked the MWC by huge margins and utah was like 7-4 going into that game and look what happened. 2007 BYU also beat everyone on the MWC and utah got shut out by UNLV and look what happened. 2008 I would be willing to bet that their common opponents scores were pretty similar and look what happened. Just because we had a 3 point advantage last year and we won by 3 points, that is pure and simple coincidence. If you could go back and analyze 10 years of common opponents and then come back with similar numbers I might think there was something to it but I would be shocked to find it more then simple coincidence.

I have to agree with frdbtr on this one. Especially this year where we have been 2 completely different teams in terms of performance from the first half of the year to the second half. The only reasonable projection one can make about this game is it will be a dogfight. While a competitive game usually makes for a more exciting game, I sure miss when we used to put Utah away easily. Something about total domination is so fulfilling.

The point in comparing common opponents, is that we're not night and day different than the Pukes. In fact, if you take the last month of the season, we're right on par.



The biggest difference is how the 2 teams are currently playing.. and BYU has the huge edge there.



The Cougs have nothing to lose this week, we're an incredibly young team going into Rice Chex to play a team that seemingly has a lot to prove. The Cougs have nothing to prove, we're young, we're talented and we're going bowling. There's not much on the line for us, and I like that very much.



Like I said before Bronco does a great job of beating middle of the road pac-10 teams at the end of the season, and that's what the Ewe are.

frdbtr wrote:
Common opponents means nothing in this game. Remember 2006? BYU walked the MWC by huge margins and utah was like 7-4 going into that game and look what happened. 2007 BYU also beat everyone on the MWC and utah got shut out by UNLV and look what happened. 2008 I would be willing to bet that their common opponents scores were pretty similar and look what happened. Just because we had a 3 point advantage last year and we won by 3 points, that is pure and simple coincidence. If you could go back and analyze 10 years of common opponents and then come back with similar numbers I might think there was something to it but I would be shocked to find it more then simple coincidence.

Agreed. I feel genuinely sorry for the people who have to set the line for this game. How do you even begin to predict the outcome of a rivalry game like this.

Post Utah State we have been extremely better, especially against the run. Most yards we have given up in a game on the ground since them was against TCU. They got 108 yards on 38 carries--including the QB runs.



Here it is:



UNM 31 carries 100 yards

CSU 24 carries 83 yards

UNLV 28 carries 22 yards

Wyoming 27 carries 63 yards

TCU 38 carries 108 yards

SDSU 12 carries 53 yards



Total: 160 carries 429 yards 71.5 ypg 2.7 yards per carry



I'd say the Bronco change has been massive. 180 yards per game less than the first 5 games.

You can never predict this game but this year, IMHO, it all boils down to Jake Heaps. Receivers will be open. More open than early vs AFA and FSU who had better pass defense than Utah, but not as open as UNLV and CSU and NM. But they will be open enough. If Jake steps up in the pocket on the occasions when protection breaks down a bit, and throws with UNLV or CSU game precision, Utah will not be able to focus on the run and blitz as often. The run game will open up and the BYU defense will enjoy field position advantage and be well rested. As long as True Freshman mistakes - penalties, bad throws, missed assignments, fumbles, and dropped passes don't kill us, U cannot stop Y if Heaps is on. I do wish a Mendenhall clone was coaching special teams, especially kickoff coverage and punters catching the ball on the 5.



Jake Heaps can lift all boats, but he cannot keep players from fumbling, unnecessary roughness, etc.



So my Question is do we get early season awful play, spotty NM 1st half play, or brilliant UNLV and CSU play from Heaps. If I knew, I could easily handicap the spread for this game.



Utah will load uo, and cheat up, and blitz until Jake Heaps beats them with precise throws- or doesn't. They will practice stripping the ball and Juice, JD, and freshman receivers and tight ends better hang on when running or struggling for YAC.



I am very worried. Is Matt healthy? OL and DL are a slight worry if anyone is not healthy. WR will be as good as the throws. They and TE are not good enough to overcome passes behind, wrong shoulder, or over their heads. They are good enough to catch well-thrown balls in stride.



Go Cougs



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Cougarbib2 wrote:
You can never predict this game but this year, IMHO, it all boils down to Jake Heaps. Receivers will be open. More open than early vs AFA and FSU who had better pass defense than Utah, but not as open as UNLV and CSU and NM. But they will be open enough. If Jake steps up in the pocket on the occasions when protection breaks down a bit, and throws with UNLV or CSU game precision, Utah will not be able to focus on the run and blitz as often. The run game will open up and the BYU defense will enjoy field position advantage and be well rested. As long as True Freshman mistakes - penalties, bad throws, missed assignments, fumbles, and dropped passes don't kill us, U cannot stop Y if Heaps is on. I do wish a Mendenhall clone was coaching special teams, especially kickoff coverage and punters catching the ball on the 5.



Jake Heaps can lift all boats, but he cannot keep players from fumbling, unnecessary roughness, etc.



So my Question is do we get early season awful play, spotty NM 1st half play, or brilliant UNLV and CSU play from Heaps. If I knew, I could easily handicap the spread for this game.



Utah will load uo, and cheat up, and blitz until Jake Heaps beats them with precise throws- or doesn't. They will practice stripping the ball and Juice, JD, and freshman receivers and tight ends better hang on when running or struggling for YAC.



I am very worried. Is Matt healthy? OL and DL are a slight worry if anyone is not healthy. WR will be as good as the throws. They and TE are not good enough to overcome passes behind, wrong shoulder, or over their heads. They are good enough to catch well-thrown balls in stride.



Go Cougs



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First off, Bronco coashes special teams. So that clone you asked for is not required.



Second, I think this game falls on our offensive line vs. their D line the most. If we can establish a run game, then use play action to pass out of, we win. If not, we struggle. Our improved passing corresponds to how much better we have run the ball. In the last 6 games, he have run it really well and throw it all well also--except the TCU game. No run game killed us vs. the Frogs. We have to run it to win. This team needs balance to succeed. Jake needs to limit turnovers and mistakes, but we live and die with our O line on Saturday.

frdbtr wrote:
Common opponents means nothing in this game. ... If you could go back and analyze 10 years of common opponents and then come back with similar numbers I might think there was something to it but I would be shocked to find it more then simple coincidence.

You're right that this rough method is a terrible predictor of margin of victory. But it's been a correct predictor of who will win 4 out of 5 years in the Mendenhall era. Of course, flipping a coin could easily give you 3 out of 5 correct...I'm certainly hoping this method goes to 4-2 this year.



2005 Predict win, we lose

2006 Predict win, we win

2007 Predict win, we win

2008 Predict loss, we lose

2009 Predict win, we win

Lawboy wrote:
First off, Bronco coashes special teams. So that clone you asked for is not required.



Second, I think this game falls on our offensive line vs. their D line the most. If we can establish a run game, then use play action to pass out of, we win. If not, we struggle. Our improved passing corresponds to how much better we have run the ball. In the last 6 games, he have run it really well and throw it all well also--except the TCU game. No run game killed us vs. the Frogs. We have to run it to win. This team needs balance to succeed. Jake needs to limit turnovers and mistakes, but we live and die with our O line on Saturday.

Good Post, I agree. If our offensive line can blow holes in their defense like it has been doing on our win streak, we win. If it does not do it and we can't run like we have been the last 4 weeks and against SDSU, we lose. Bottom line. I don't trust a true freshman to win this game with his arm to win it, it has to be done with the run game.

frdbtr wrote:

First off, Bronco coashes special teams. So that clone you asked for is not required.



Second, I think this game falls on our offensive line vs. their D line the most. If we can establish a run game, then use play action to pass out of, we win. If not, we struggle. Our improved passing corresponds to how much better we have run the ball. In the last 6 games, he have run it really well and throw it all well also--except the TCU game. No run game killed us vs. the Frogs. We have to run it to win. This team needs balance to succeed. Jake needs to limit turnovers and mistakes, but we live and die with our O line on Saturday.

Good Post, I agree. If our offensive line can blow holes in their defense like it has been doing on our win streak, we win. If it does not do it and we can't run like we have been the last 4 weeks and against SDSU, we lose. Bottom line. I don't trust a true freshman to win this game with his arm to win it, it has to be done with the run game.

Utah will agree. They will not trust Heaps to beat them with his arm either and will make him prove that he can do it. If Matt Reynolds is healthy, the OL will be fine. When the Utes load the box and have the corners cheat up, they will slow the run. But receivers will be open and if Jake hits them, Utah will have to adjust and then we run all over them.



BTW - Lawboy - I understood that Bronco now coaches the defense and turned Special Teams over to Higgins or someone and it seems to show.



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...because they share the same drugs with opponents?

Cougarbib2 wrote:

WR will be as good as the throws. They and TE are not good enough to overcome passes behind, wrong shoulder, or over their heads. They are good enough to catch well-thrown balls in stride.



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If this is true, then they arent good enough to be playing D1 ball as receivers.



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