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PER to decide the BYU-CSU Game

by SpiffCoug · 11/9/2010

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SpiffCoug
Not sure if you guys are aware, but I'm a pretty big fan of the Passer Rating (PER) stat. In 2010, BYU has played nine games, the team that won the PER stat battle has won eight (.889) of them. Since 2000, the PER record is 117-17 (.873).



Going into this week, BYU's Jake Heaps has a PER of 96.43. Going into last week, it was 87. 56. UNLV's PER Defense is a nice 155.45 and Jake was even better than that. CSU's PER defense is even worse at 164.56. So, after a career-best PER day, Heaps is going up against an even worse passing defense.



UNLV's run defense is worse than CSU, but not a whole lot. One thing Jake did extremely well was throw out of play-action. CSU's rush defense is awful enough that he should be able to beat them again with play-action.



I'm not quite ready to say he's going to repeat last week's performance, but it certainly is possible. But I am quite ready to say that PER is going to improve it's record to 9-1 in 2010.
I
IndiCoug
I just hope they continue making the recievers/TE spend time with the Jugs machines cranked up so we continue to have less drops.

For Heaps, I want to see a repeat performance in interceptions (ZERO). That means he's making the right reads and delivering the ball where receivers can get their hands on it. And all that equals high PER so yes, kitic is right on.

Go Cougars.
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frdbtr
IndiCoug wrote:
I just hope they continue making the recievers/TE spend time with the Jugs machines cranked up so we continue to have less drops.

For Heaps, I want to see a repeat performance in interceptions (ZERO). That means he's making the right reads and delivering the ball where receivers can get their hands on it. And all that equals high PER so yes, kitic is right on.

Go Cougars.




I have thought for weeks that Heaps problem has been confidence. I am really hoping that Saturday's game really boosted that. If it has, I think we will see more multiple touchdown 0 interception games. From what we have heard, he has been looking like that in practice for weeks and it just hasn't translated to the games. I just hope that it continues. I have no doubt that we can beat CSU and NM if he plays like he did on Saturday and I give them a real shot in the utah game since our defense is going to keep us in that one too.
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Guest
frdbtr wrote:
I just hope they continue making the recievers/TE spend time with the Jugs machines cranked up so we continue to have less drops.

For Heaps, I want to see a repeat performance in interceptions (ZERO). That means he's making the right reads and delivering the ball where receivers can get their hands on it. And all that equals high PER so yes, kitic is right on.

Go Cougars.




I have thought for weeks that Heaps problem has been confidence. I am really hoping that Saturday's game really boosted that. If it has, I think we will see more multiple touchdown 0 interception games. From what we have heard, he has been looking like that in practice for weeks and it just hasn't translated to the games. I just hope that it continues. I have no doubt that we can beat CSU and NM if he plays like he did on Saturday and I give them a real shot in the utah game since our defense is going to keep us in that one too.


Agreed. Heaps looked in command of the pocket and the field on Saturday and it was awesome. I fully expect that to continue into this Saturday with maybe a few freshman mistakes being on the road, but I still expect it to be his 2nd best game of the year.
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Lawboy
I just want to score more than CSU and get a road win. I understand PER is a telling stat, but at this point, we just need this win, anyway, anyhow. I would prefer to see Jake take another step forward in his skill set and confidence level, but mainly we need the W. Not to be a weiny, but 100% of teams that score more win.



Having said that, Jake needs to throw up a 140 or better PER on the road and get it done Saturday. Back to back progress, with 1 on the road, si what everyone needs to see out of him.
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ABYUFAN
IndiCoug wrote:
I just hope they continue making the recievers/TE spend time with the Jugs machines cranked up so we continue to have less drops.

For Heaps, I want to see a repeat performance in interceptions (ZERO). That means he's making the right reads and delivering the ball where receivers can get their hands on it. And all that equals high PER so yes, kitic is right on.

Go Cougars.

http://blogs.1077theend.com/files/2010/07/Beavis_and_Butthead_horror.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">



huh huh huh huh

he said "jugs"

hu huh huh



he he hem he he hem yeah yeah "jugs machine" I didn't know they came out of a machine.... he heh heh heh



huh huh huh yeah.. cool.
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stuckinbig10country
I think a bigger difference this week will be the defense continuing to get off of the field on 3rd downs. I know that figures into the PER, but since I don't want to compute a formula, that is what I will be looking at. I know its a little unreliable if CSU is picking up first downs on 1st and 2nd down like some of the teams we played against earlier in the year were, but the way the defense is playing, I don't see that happening.
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Schmoe
I award ABYUFAN the post of the day award!
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SpiffCoug
stuckinbig10country wrote:
I think a bigger difference this week will be the defense continuing to get off of the field on 3rd downs. I know that figures into the PER, but since I don't want to compute a formula, that is what I will be looking at. I know its a little unreliable if CSU is picking up first downs on 1st and 2nd down like some of the teams we played against earlier in the year were, but the way the defense is playing, I don't see that happening.

I don't remember exactly, but Jake's PER on 3rd down last week was like 220.
M
Mars
kitic77 wrote:
UNLV's PER Defense is a nice 155.45...

CSU's PER defense is even worse at 164.56.

What's BYU's? :skeptic:





Also, I always found the "Jake is lacking confidence" posts to be slightly amusing. Kind of like saying that Max Hall and Austin Collie lack confidence. Confidence in Anae maybe...
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SpiffCoug
Mars wrote:
UNLV's PER Defense is a nice 155.45...

CSU's PER defense is even worse at 164.56.

What's BYU's? :skeptic:





Also, I always found the "Jake is lacking confidence" posts to be slightly amusing. Kind of like saying that Max Hall and Austin Collie lack confidence. Confidence in Anae maybe...

Lacking confidence in Anae is still lacking confidence.



BYU's PER defense is 126.14. Wyoming's PER against BYU was 88.07. UNLV's PER was 70.86 last week.



Someone earlier mentioned points scored matter more, which they do. Guess what? When you have a good PER you score more points. Remember the magic number is 140. When BYU gets to 140, they're record is 56-6 (.903) and they average 41.2 ppg (avg score: 41.2-21.9). When they don't get to 120, they're record is 14-35 (.286) and average 16.2 ppg (avg score: 16.2-27.4). When they're between 120 and 140 the record is 15-8 (.652) and average 28 ppg (avg score: 28-23.7).



So get to 140 and you nearly always win and you score a bunch. Get to 120 and you put up some points and usually win but are in a close game. Don't get to 120 and you don't score much and lose.
B
BroncoBot
kitic77 wrote:
kitic77 wrote:
UNLV's PER Defense is a nice 155.45...

CSU's PER defense is even worse at 164.56.

What's BYU's? :skeptic:





Also, I always found the "Jake is lacking confidence" posts to be slightly amusing. Kind of like saying that Max Hall and Austin Collie lack confidence. Confidence in Anae maybe...

Lacking confidence in Anae is still lacking confidence.



BYU's PER defense is 126.14. Wyoming's PER against BYU was 88.07. UNLV's PER was 70.86 last week.



Someone earlier mentioned points scored matter more, which they do. Guess what? When you have a good PER you score more points. Remember the magic number is 140. When BYU gets to 140, they're record is 56-6 (.903) and they average 41.2 ppg (avg score: 41.2-21.9). When they don't get to 120, they're record is 14-35 (.286) and average 16.2 ppg (avg score: 16.2-27.4). When they're between 120 and 140 the record is 15-8 (.652) and average 28 ppg (avg score: 28-23.7).



So get to 140 and you nearly always win and you score a bunch. Get to 120 and you put up some points and usually win but are in a close game. Don't get to 120 and you don't score much and lose.

Has ESPN offered you a job yet Kitic? Where do you come up with this stuff? It's awesome.
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