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Play young guys now = win big later ??

by cougdoc · 11/6/2010

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cougdoc
In another thread debating whether we should play young guys or experienced guys, craigoscarson suggested that Florida and Texas are struggling this year by their standards (which they are) because they are playing a lot of underclassmen (which they are). Without directly disputing that, Italics opined that playing freshman now may hurt now but will pay dividends later. Since our situation is similar to Fl and Tx this year, I was hoping both were right, so I decided to take a look.



I looked at the most recent "national championship" team for each (Florida 2008, Texas 2005) and listed the team's top four performers in rushing, receiving, interceptions and tackles. Then I went back to those players freshman season to see how they had performed in the same category. There was some overlap between categories (Harvin was top four in both rushing and receiving, e.g) so of Florida's top 13 performers in 2008, all but one (Spikes, B) was in the top 7 in the same category during his respective freshman season. For Texas 2005, only two of 15 players were lower than 7th as a freshman. Once I had the process down it was easy to repeat the analysis for Alabama 2009, LSU 2007 and USC 2004. The pattern held true.



So can we legitimately draw any of these conclusions about those teams (and hopefully our team as well)?

1. The best players on really good teams are top performers on their team from day one

2. Really good programs, like the last five BCS "champions" recruit great players, so of course they shine as freshman

3. Really good programs have a system in place that allows talented freshman to get playing time (mars is nodding his head) and they seize the opportunity

4. Everything is cyclical, and if I had researched those teams in their non-championship periods I would find freshman still playing, and still excelling relative to their teammates, but the team not succeeding as much (suggesting that it is some ratio of talent and experience that equals success; craig is taking his turn to nod now)

5. Perhaps most intriguing to me is the possibility that the recipe for winning championships is to recruit good players, play them early to give them experience and then enjoy the success when talent and experience mesh. Does this mean by contrast that the recipe for maintaining good but not great seasons is to play the experienced guys, even if they are no more talented than the young guys, so as to avoid the rebuilding seasons while giving up the chance of periodically having a really special year? If so, which would you rather have: one BCS bowl season in the midst of a decade of .500 records, or a whole decade of 11-2 records?
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craigoscarson
If you look at Boise and TCU, the recipe is not to play freshmen or redshirt freshmen unless there's no other option.. That's led to BCS bowls.



Those teams are closer to the talent level that we bring in and probably a better indication of what a blueprint for success should look like for us. We're not going to have Percy Harvins with regularity (even Florida isn't)



Once again, I'm not saying that Bronco shouldn't play some youth (if you've read anything I've written this year, I predicted a 7 or best case, 8 win season and rebuilding with a lot of youth getting gametime... exaclty what has happened); what I'm saying is that the myth that Bronco doesn't play freshmen and young players is complete crap and the argument that young players help you win now is for the most part a myth too.



Let's not assume that the only place to improve and get better is on the gameday field. Jordan Pendleton went from special teams to stud linebacker without ever having played linebacker in his life, because he had been in the system 2+ years learning the game IN PRACTICE. Every practice is a chance for young guys to improve... and obviously TCU and BSU have figured out a way to improve their underclassmen without playing them on gameday.



Just because a young guy isn't playing a ton on gameday, doesn't mean he's not improving... that's what practice is for. However with Bronco, particularly this year, the young guys are playing too, which helps explain our lackluster results thus far. We just don't have enough experienced upperclassmen to elevate us.
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tww
I think you guys are right. The ideal and best process is to redshirt every freshman. Of course I can understand why people get anxious to see highly recruited talent on the field as was the case with Heaps. But in in that example we see that if you have to play freshman it is because you have problem in front of them, an injury, a player that did not develop to potential, or an error or problem in recruiting in previous classes. I think one element of Boise States methodology is that they seem more aggressive at bringing in JC guys to fill the gaps between talent and experience. I still have never heard why BYU did not bring in a JC QB (ala Sark) or have someone in development longer. The first two years of Max's starting career we had a backup of his same year then part way through we his senior season we switched to Nelson as the backup, which was way too late. The fact that Lavell seemed to always have a stockpile of QB's developing in the program where now we are much slimmer in that category would seem to be shift in thinking. I assume that it is to more evenly spread scholarships at other positions and to avoid as much as possible bringing in anyone that is questionable as a potential honor code liability. I understand keeping the bloodline as pure as possible but also I think sometimes you have to take a chance and hope the rest of the team keeps the undisciplined in line.



The short of it is I still don't understand or know of a good excuse for having such a huge QB gap as to be forced to play Heaps at this time. Did someone drop the ball on recruiting the right year QB?
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SpiffCoug
Play young guys = lose now. Let later take care of later.



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craigoscarson
tww wrote:
I think you guys are right. The ideal and best process is to redshirt every freshman. Of course I can understand why people get anxious to see highly recruited talent on the field as was the case with Heaps. But in in that example we see that if you have to play freshman it is because you have problem in front of them, an injury, a player that did not develop to potential, or an error or problem in recruiting in previous classes. I think one element of Boise States methodology is that they seem more aggressive at bringing in JC guys to fill the gaps between talent and experience. I still have never heard why BYU did not bring in a JC QB (ala Sark) or have someone in development longer. The first two years of Max's starting career we had a backup of his same year then part way through we his senior season we switched to Nelson as the backup, which was way too late. The fact that Lavell seemed to always have a stockpile of QB's developing in the program where now we are much slimmer in that category would seem to be shift in thinking. I assume that it is to more evenly spread scholarships at other positions and to avoid as much as possible bringing in anyone that is questionable as a potential honor code liability. I understand keeping the bloodline as pure as possible but also I think sometimes you have to take a chance and hope the rest of the team keeps the undisciplined in line.



The short of it is I still don't understand or know of a good excuse for having such a huge QB gap as to be forced to play Heaps at this time. Did someone drop the ball on recruiting the right year QB?


For all practical purposes our JUCO QB was Nelson and our future was with Heaps. Nelson got hurt and Heaps is too young and inexperienced for there not to be a serious dropoff for a year. (I also dont' think Heaps saw Nelson as a major threat to his playing time... not after all the awards he got as the best qb at the prep level) Would Heaps have signed with us if we had a Cam Newton type coming in too? Not sure, but it might have been unlikely. The UW job would have been his after a redshirt and he'd have to wait 2 years behind Newton (or whatever juco qb we brought in)



Bringing in Heaps had an additive result of getting Apo, Stout and helping Philips and others make their decision. We probably couldn't have had our cake and ate it too, at least not in 2010. I'll take the recruits.
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Cougarbib
UW got Joe MOntana's son Nick MOntana as a consolatoin prize. He is on eof th efew QBs to beat Heaps head-to-head in high school. He is redshirting. Locker has been determined to have a broken rib - not just bruised. I am betting he will not pla today. I am also betting that UW will not burn Nick's redshirt year but will play a redshirt sophomore instead.



Heaps should have been redshirted based on what w eknow know having seen him on the field - and there was no surprise to me. He is a freshman. Arguable, the best freshman QB we have everhad - but a True Freshman and plays like one.
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tww
craigoscarson wrote:
I think you guys are right. The ideal and best process is to redshirt every freshman. Of course I can understand why people get anxious to see highly recruited talent on the field as was the case with Heaps. But in in that example we see that if you have to play freshman it is because you have problem in front of them, an injury, a player that did not develop to potential, or an error or problem in recruiting in previous classes. I think one element of Boise States methodology is that they seem more aggressive at bringing in JC guys to fill the gaps between talent and experience. I still have never heard why BYU did not bring in a JC QB (ala Sark) or have someone in development longer. The first two years of Max's starting career we had a backup of his same year then part way through we his senior season we switched to Nelson as the backup, which was way too late. The fact that Lavell seemed to always have a stockpile of QB's developing in the program where now we are much slimmer in that category would seem to be shift in thinking. I assume that it is to more evenly spread scholarships at other positions and to avoid as much as possible bringing in anyone that is questionable as a potential honor code liability. I understand keeping the bloodline as pure as possible but also I think sometimes you have to take a chance and hope the rest of the team keeps the undisciplined in line.



The short of it is I still don't understand or know of a good excuse for having such a huge QB gap as to be forced to play Heaps at this time. Did someone drop the ball on recruiting the right year QB?


For all practical purposes our JUCO QB was Nelson and our future was with Heaps. Nelson got hurt and Heaps is too young and inexperienced for there not to be a serious dropoff for a year. (I also dont' think Heaps saw Nelson as a major threat to his playing time... not after all the awards he got as the best qb at the prep level) Would Heaps have signed with us if we had a Cam Newton type coming in too? Not sure, but it might have been unlikely. The UW job would have been his after a redshirt and he'd have to wait 2 years behind Newton (or whatever juco qb we brought in)



Bringing in Heaps had an additive result of getting Apo, Stout and helping Philips and others make their decision. We probably couldn't have had our cake and ate it too, at least not in 2010. I'll take the recruits.


You are probably right. It is hard to know for sure but one thing is clear is that mediocrity is unacceptable in Cougar Nation and the pressure cooker is on. Either things start to click, momentum gains, and confidence grows or something will crack. But sometimes even that needs to happen in order to get where you really want to be. Are the right people on the bus? We will see. There is certainly a soft spot in the schedule where no excuses can be made and the opportunity to begin to gel is within reach. Go Cougs, make it happen.
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Italics
I agree with that Italics guy. Sounds about right to me.



EDIT - Oh no, forgot to hop on my alternate account before posting this...
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craigoscarson
Italics wrote:
I agree with that Italics guy. Sounds about right to me.



EDIT - Oh no, forgot to hop on my alternate account before posting this...


tww was with cougarblue long before we ever had the pleasure of some other johnnie-come-latelies.



hawk and kiwi can verify that ip addy
M
Mars


Boise State seems to have played more youth the past two years than any other team in the nation...
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craigoscarson
Mars wrote:


Boise State seems to have played more youth the past two years than any other team in the nation...


Boise has milked the juco system to death and redshirts nearly every kid that comes through the pipeline. last year they redshirted 22 of 24 freshmen. This year they haven't gotten serious production from a single freshman and only token plays from redshirt freshmen.
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Mars
craigoscarson wrote:
Boise has milked the juco system to death and redshirts nearly every kid that comes through the pipeline. last year they redshirted 22 of 24 freshmen. This year they haven't gotten serious production from a single freshman and only token plays from redshirt freshmen.

You gotta love their system. The more young guys they play early, the more seasoned vets they have in later seasons and the more young guys they can redshirt.



As far as Jucos, I was just talking to someone earlier this morning about how pleased I am with BYU's current DB recruiting. Everett? Sampson? Maybe Aguirre? Good times.
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Florwood
Cougarbib2 wrote:
UW got Joe MOntana's son Nick MOntana as a consolatoin prize. He is on eof th efew QBs to beat Heaps head-to-head in high school. He is redshirting. Locker has been determined to have a broken rib - not just bruised. I am betting he will not pla today. I am also betting that UW will not burn Nick's redshirt year but will play a redshirt sophomore instead.



Heaps should have been redshirted based on what w eknow know having seen him on the field - and there was no surprise to me. He is a freshman. Arguable, the best freshman QB we have everhad - but a True Freshman and plays like one.


Two good years of Jake is probably all we get, so a redshirt wouldn't matter. His performance today, even considering is was a lame UNLV, suggests he isn't playing like a true freshman anymore.
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Y 4 Ever
You're all right. Playing freshmen now means big wins in the future. And playing them now means less wins now. For me, I see a team in two years that features heaps, Hoffman, apo, juice, mathews, mehina, philips, van noy, kavienga, stout et al that will be pretty damn good and we'll all agree that the poor first half of the 2010 season was all worth it. And the 2011 and especially the 2012 dominating teams playing in games across the nation will bring in more top level recruits, repeating the cycle. The future is very bright my friends.



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Guest
blue-shirting freshman means big wins later too, without the waste of a year of eligibility.
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