RER - Receiver Efficiency Rating

Okay, I think I have the Receiver Efficiency Rating (RER) done. What I've done is taking the Passing Efficiency Rating (PER) and applied to the receiving corps. I went back through the play-by-plays and calculating how many times each receiver was targeted and what the result was.



I'll be listing three stats, two of which are incorporated in the RER, but which I feel show different things. The three stats are: RER, Completion Percentage (%) and Yards per Catch (YPC).



The YPC I think shows what players are doing once they catch the ball. A high YPC, I think shows which recievers are catching the ball and then getting down field with it. As a simple barometer of YPC I chose 10 yards. A good receiver should be getting a 1st Down - or close to it with each reception.



I think 60% is a good barometer for completion percentage. BYU receivers don't run many deep routes, and they should catch just about everything thrown to them. Since 1989, the year I really started getting into BYU football as a 12-year-old, only four BYU QBs have completed less than 60% of their passes: Beck in 2004, Engemann in 2002, Peterson in 2000 and Hancock in 1992. 60% is a minimum at BYU.



A word on PER. I believe it to be the most accurate statistic when evaluating both a quarterback and a team. Since 2000, the team that won the passer rating stat is 116-17 (.872) in BYU games. There is NO other stat with that kind of correlation to winning and losing - outside of the obvious points scored/points allowed.



The "magic number" of PER is 140. If you get to that number, you win. BYU's record in games where our QB hit 140 is: 56-6 (.903). By comparison, if BYU's PER is between 100 and 140 the record is 21-19 (.525) and if it's below 100 - where it currently is - it's an abysmal 6-18 (.250).



So without further ado, here is the 2010 RER:

Player..........RER.......%.......YPC
Quezada ........ 178.93 ..... .833 ..... 5.8
Wilson .......... 135.60 ..... .600 ..... 15.0
DiLuigi .......... 128.60 ..... .714 ..... 9.1
Muehlmann ..... 118.80 ..... .600 ..... 11.7
Matthews ...... 117.23 ..... .462 ..... 18.3
Holt ............. 116.80 ..... 1.000 .... 2.0
Jacobson ........ 88.10 ..... .488 ..... 9.6
Kariya ........... 87.55 ..... .600 ..... 5.5
Hague ........... 85.13 ..... .667 ..... 9.3
Ashworth ....... 82.02 ..... .514 ..... 6.2
Peterson ........ 71.00 ..... .500 ..... 5.0
Hoffman ........ 64.31 ..... .408 ..... 9.7
Mendenhall ..... 58.40 ..... .500 ..... 2.0
Chambers ...... 56.45 ..... .313 ..... 9.6
Mahina ......... 51.49 ..... .429 ..... 10.3
Hafoka ......... 23.89 ..... .143 ..... 8.0

And now for some observations.



- Only one player is above the "magic number": Quezada

- Only five other players have acceptable numbers: Wilson, DiLuigi, Muehlmann, Matthews, Holt.

- The remaining receivers have simply atrocious RERs.

- I'm pretty sure, I could go out tomorrow and run routes I've never run before and catch passes more efficiently than Hafoka.

- Only four receivers are doing much once they catch it: Matthews, Wilson, Muehlmann, Mahina.

- No WR has a comp% anywhere near 60% - the minimum standard.

- I was surprised to see Ashworth with a higher comp% than Jacobson.

- Some receivers seem have next to no ability to get down field: Holt and Ashworth.



I didn't break it down by Heaps/Nelson, as I wanted this to be a receiver stat that was independent of the QB. And now for the earth-shattering, breaking news observation: Our receivers are performing at epically poor levels. They are not getting open. They are not catching the ball. They are not making plays when they do catch it. They are not turning down field and getting positive yards post-catch. They are simply not helping the offense move the ball, sustain drives and score touchdowns.



For a group that many, myself included, thought was going to be a real strength, a unit that could really help a young and/or inexperienced QB get their feet wet and gain some confidence, they have been woefully productive. They have done anything but help a QB gain confidence, experience and success. They have almost been a detriment to the team. If there is one position group that has hurt another more than the receivers have hurt the QBs, I'd like to see it.



Thoughts? Other observations?

I may also this weekend, do a RER for receivers who were on last year's team.

kitic77 wrote:
Thoughts? Other observations?

Well... First off -- Bravo going through this and putting it down like this. I've always wondered how crappy they really were. This really shows who's who out there.



I'm loving our young guys! Get this gibberish to Anae ASAP, because we need to use our most productive tools. Let's bench Ashworth and sit Jacobson next to him for a couple of qtrs. and let him see what it's like to keep that bench warm.

well done, sir. well done.



Hoffman should be our number 1, and after him I'm not sure anyone else deserves to be on a "powerful" mid-major D1 team. I mean on the roster, not just on the field. We are bad bad bad bad bad!!!

Chicken or the egg? I think the PER is tied in a HUGE way to RER this year, but the opposite is true as well. Regardless, on field performance is BAD.

Great job. Very helpful.

Would it be possible to side the stats you listed above with some of the raw stats, like passes thrown to receiver, passes dropped, passes caught, receiving TD's, etc. Maybe you explained that and I missed that.



Ya know, after you compile last year's list, visit Anae to consult on the offense, and stop off at Bronco's office to present your new RER :-), it will be interesting to extrapolate and determine with actual data what others have postulated: this offense has gone away from the receivers for several years.

MAybe Pitta and George, Unga and Tonga were just that good. But I expect to see TE's and RB's to have the highest RER, as groups, in 2009 and probably 2008, except for our anomalous NFL talent ACollie.

In other words, what has this brand of Anae offense done to go away from the WR? Do they really under-perfomr that bad? Not excusing Heaps--this time :-), but wow, its tough to see Hoffman who is tall enough, fast enough and strong enough, (notwithstanding being a RS Freshman), to get separation, get open, and catch balls. And yet he still has such a low RER. Has the pseudo-spread really hampered our WR play?

Way to go Kitic. Good stuff.

Lawboy wrote:
Chicken or the egg? I think the PER is tied in a HUGE way to RER this year, but the opposite is true as well. Regardless, on field performance is BAD.

It's pretty simple: Our QB isn't helping our WR's to improve, and our WR's especially aren't helping our QB improve.



The offensive coaches - most of all - don't seem to be helping anyone to improve. Hindering our progress? A+ job.

Italics wrote:

Chicken or the egg? I think the PER is tied in a HUGE way to RER this year, but the opposite is true as well. Regardless, on field performance is BAD.

It's pretty simple: Our QB isn't helping our WR's to improve, and our WR's especially aren't helping our QB improve.



The offensive coaches - most of all - don't seem to be helping anyone to improve. Hindering our progress? A job.

Exactly. This is called systemic analysis: A effects B which in turn is effected by C which causes A and B...... and so on.

As opposed to the oversimplification of A (Heaps) causes B (all the other offensive failures).

While I dont' want to make any excuses for jacobsens terrible play this year, he was the one that was asked to make a position move to a different responsibility. I think his numbers are better if he was never asked to play the slot... something he has failed miserably at.

Great Job!! We definately need to fix the drops and then that will start giving us some answers on QB issues. Anae's got to go no matter what IMHO.

craigoscarson wrote:
While I dont' want to make any excuses for jacobsens terrible play this year, he was the one that was asked to make a position move to a different responsibility. I think his numbers are better if he was never asked to play the slot... something he has failed miserably at.

Who else could have played slot? I have no idea, just asking and wondering if BYU could have kept Jacobson where he belongs.



Seems like moving Jacobson to slot is like forcing Heaps to play QB this year. Simply a desperate choice.

craigoscarson wrote:
While I dont' want to make any excuses for jacobsens terrible play this year, he was the one that was asked to make a position move to a different responsibility. I think his numbers are better if he was never asked to play the slot... something he has failed miserably at.

Agreed wholeheartedly. That boy was not cut out for the slot...

runbyu1 wrote:

While I dont' want to make any excuses for jacobsens terrible play this year, he was the one that was asked to make a position move to a different responsibility. I think his numbers are better if he was never asked to play the slot... something he has failed miserably at.

Agreed wholeheartedly. That boy was not cut out for the slot...

I don't know. In high school where McKay put up huge numbers, he was a slot guy. His speed should have allowed him to make plays due to mismatches, like Kerley does for TCU. His lack of heart has doomed him there. I think he plays scared going over the middle in a big way. He drops or quits on slant routes, that is certain. See FSU game, USU game, etc.



Just reinforces my belief that this offense needs a makeover, starting at the top.

Part of Hoffman's low RER is that from what I could tell, four of the team's INTs were targeted to him.

RER by Position Group:

RB:117.14, 68.6%, 7.9 ypc

WR: 72.34, 43.5%, 8.5 ypc

TE: 105.59, 51.6%, 13.9 ypc.

kitic77 wrote:
Part of Hoffman's low RER is that from what I could tell, four of the team's INTs were targeted to him.

You sure? Hoffman seems to drop the ball a lot. Seems like for every good play he makes he has a dropped pass.

Italics wrote:

Part of Hoffman's low RER is that from what I could tell, four of the team's INTs were targeted to him.

You sure? Hoffman seems to drop the ball a lot. Seems like for every good play he makes he has a dropped pass.

Good call. If took his INTs from 4 to 0 his rating jumps from 64.31 to 80.64 - that's a 25% jump. If you upped his comp% and yards by his ypc it jumps to: 97.59 - a 51% jump. Of course that's assuming two variables as opposed to just one.

Those are the ugliest stats I've seen at BYU. I would've started and stopped at Luke Ashworth.

Think fast - here it comes - random speed - random timing - random location - look all around - there it is - high and behind you and here before you expected it- contort and get it - hey you got a hand on it - its a drop - and if you do catch it - get me some YAC from your contorted position. IMHO this is what is happening half the time. Not totally defending the receivers. They are not the greatest. But they are the same guys we had last year.



Imagine this contrast



run your route - you know when it is coming, what velocity it will have and where it is coming - right where it is supposed to be - look there first - catch it in stride - or adjust a little if lead a little too much or not quite enough - and tuck it and fight for more yards.



And if the QB doesn't throw it to the other team far more than he throws TDs - what might the RER look like.



It is not all Heaps. It is partly Heaps. It is partly the receivers. It is not lack of blocking any more. It is lack of go to tight ends to force defenses to double cover them and play off receivers. I am sure, that like with every team talked about today, Utah, AFA, ND, etc., play calling is not perfect and sometimes bad, and someone took the eye off filling the pipeline with experienced reserves the last year or two to fill in when the biggest single season loss of talent in recent memory occurred last January followed by the loss of Unga and defections of a few recruits, and a few people getting booted or transferring.



It is all of that. It is not all Heaps.

Cougarbib, there's no excuse for poor recieving. Recievers are by far the easiest position to recruit as good HS recievers who can catch the ball are a dime a dozen. BYU has gotten it done with our "slow" white guys for decades so you can hardly say we left the pipeline empty. Empty of what, recievers who can catch the ball? My recievers on my HS team where a better group then our current guys. I've never seen so many catchable dropped balls than I have seen this year with the cougs.

I think it is a whole lot to do with COACHING. If it's hitting both hands you can't blame that on the QB. I'd like to see a player take that to the coach......"but coach, it wasn't my fault I had two hands on it, he needs to throw that ball right here out in front of me".......please. We can see how well that kind of attitude worked out for O'Neal. ;)