Comparing Heaps to other Freshman QBs

"Jake Heaps is making history in many ways as quarterback for the Brigham Young Cougars this year. Making history isn’t always a good thing. I commend Heaps for getting the win Saturday against Wyoming, and throwing the touchdown pass that sealed the win. However, he only threw for 81 yards, and he had another touchdown pass (pick six) that was a big reason why this game was even close. Add to this that Heaps was coming off of a 91 yard outing with two interceptions and a less than 50% completion rate the week before against TCU, and wheels start to turn in your head and you start to wonder is Jake Heaps the worst BYU Freshman QB ever?"



http://byufootballtalk.blogspot.com/2010/10/is-jake-heaps-worst-brigham-young.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Don't worry Heaps supporters, the conclusion isn't that bad.

Which further reinforces the point that you would never play a true freshman at QB as the starter, and especially if the supporting cast was weak or inexperienced, unless you had no choice. Circumstances resulted in all 5 of these guys playing as freshmen and it didn't work very well for any of them until the Freedom Bowl. I was at that Freedom Bowl and watched a gutty Ty Detmer steal the show from Eric Bienemy of Colorado in a close game, where both teams made mistakes, but the right team prevailed.



2010, unfortunately, had circumstances a plenty that resulted in a far less than ideal situation.



That is why it took an injury to Nelson to get Heaps on the field full-time as early as it happened.



Even Detmer did not start, or even play iirc, week 1. Was it week 3 or 4? And then, he didn't fully take over iirc. The first time I remember seeing Detmer hit the field, and it was due to circumstances that forced Lavell to take the risk, Detmer threw 4 interceptions and looked horrible, but showed spurts of brilliance.



As he got more PT, Detmer improved quickly. And Detmer showed fire, heart, and leadership from day 1.



Heaps is in uncharted territory, iirc, he was called to part-time duty in week 1, and full time duty, in Q2 of week 3, with only 3 quarters of play under his belt and on the road at a top 20 team. And now, he is carrying a floundering team that is improving too slowly through an entire season.



Luckily, he now has the equivalent of 6+ games under his belt and the weakest part of the schedule, and a bye week for his team to get healthy and prepared.



Heaps has had only slightly less game reps than Jordan Wynn, a sophomore, in the top 10 nationally as a sophomore. SOS aka LOC is ripe for Heaps to show more brilliance more consistently. He has had all day to throw last week and will vs UNLV. He will have receivers more open against these weaker defenses. The OL is run blocking and pass protecting far better than earlier and when the SOS was tougher.



It is time for Heaps to shine. Hopefully he does and blows out UNLV in 3 quarters and we can develop a backup. I don't see UNLV, CSU, or NM getting a lot of heat on Heaps that might knock him out, but Utah might and I hope we don't have to see Lark or Munns trot out there without 1 snap of D1 experience and with no notice.



Some coaches will catch hell from fans if that circumstance arises.

Finally some balanced analysis, thanks Y12.

The other variables I would add is age of first start.

John Beck-21 post mission

Matt berry- same

Drew Miller: ?

Ty Detmer: I assume 18/19 fresh out of HS.



One other: Anae's dink and dunk scheme would conceivably lower Yards per catch as opposed to Chow's offense that went down field more. And while on that thought, I can rememeber all those Detmer interceptions--And it would seem that the OC, Chow, had less of a constraining mental effect on his QB. In other words, Chow built confidence in Detmer, not the opposite which I beleive is happening to Heaps by Anae--who didnt want him in the first place.

Same for Beck. he almost needed a labotomy after Crowton got in his head.

Berry redshirted in 1998 or 1999 before his mission.

Detmer was actually quite old when he came to BYU. I want to say he came to BYU when he was nearly 20 (late birthday? held back?) so he was 21 or 22 before he really saw the field.

kitic77 wrote:
Berry redshirted in 1998 or 1999 before his mission.

Detmer was actually quite old when he came to BYU. I want to say he came to BYU when he was nearly 20 (late birthday? held back?) so he was 21 or 22 before he really saw the field.

Detmer also redshirted his first year. He was not a true freshman.



From his wikipedia page (I know, consider the source):

Detmer entered the national spotlight during his record-setting career at BYU. He redshirted during the 1987 season, and shared quarterback duties with Sean Covey as a freshman in 1988.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ty_Detmer



I can't think of a single True Freshman QB that has been put in the position Jake Heaps has. Consider that, and he is doing OK for what he has to work with. I know he isn't a world beater yet, but let's give him some time, exercise a little patience, and see what our QB situation is after Spring ball. He may yet surprise, or he may become a permanent back up once Lark and Munns shake off the post mission rust. Either way, I am excited about the future at BYU.

WOW. All's quiet on the Heaps-o-haters front. Not that I'm hoping they show up. BUt in the face of real and meaningful/contextualized data, they have dis-appeared. I know they'll be back. Maybe they're glaring rejection of a qb was evolving into hatred for an actual human being and it became too much for their conscience to handle.

Heaps bashers are going to continue to use the TCU stats for quite some time. Kinda useless considering the fact that it was TCU, it was in Forth Worth, Max Hall always played horribly against them, and Heaps didn't have nearly the tools Hall did.

If you're going to attack Heaps numbers (which isn't hard to do this year), fair enough - but using the TCU game is useless IMO.

Italics wrote:
Heaps bashers are going to continue to use the TCU stats for quite some time. Kinda useless considering the fact that it was TCU, it was in Forth Worth, Max Hall always played horribly against them, and Heaps didn't have nearly the tools Hall did.

If you're going to attack Heaps numbers (which isn't hard to do this year), fair enough - but using the TCU game is useless IMO.

It's not just the TCU game's numbers. BYU QBs have been poor in that game the last four years. But it's the numbers against other middling teams. Heaps has the worst passer rating of any QB to ever play meaning minutes at BYU.



Is part of that because he is a freshman? Sure is. Is part of that because he's not getting much support from his recievers? You bet. Is part of that because he has an offensive coaching staff that is/was unable to make a decision regarding the QB? No doubt. Is part of that because the offensive coaching staff seems to be more interested in "protecting" Heaps than calling a game to win or sticking with what works? Seems to be. Is part of it because Heaps is struggling to make throws in games he reportedly makes in practice? Apparently. Is part of if because Heaps may not have been as ready as the blind sHeaps professed and wanted to believe? I think so.



Does any of that mean he can't turn it around? Nope. Does any of it mean he's not talented? Nope. Does any of that mean he won't finish his career at BYU as an all-time great? I don't think so. Does any of that mean I've completely written him off and never want to see him dress in Cougar blue again? Not a chance.



Does any of that mean the criticism that he's statistically the worst QB to ever man the position mean anything beyond his current level of play? No, it is simply an accurate and true reflection on his current level of play.



Does it do a disservice to Jake to try and sugar-coat his struggles so as to practically absolve him of all responsibility? I think it does.



Is he getting help from his recievers? Not enough. Is he getting good coaching and play-calling from his coaches? Doesn't appear to be. Has he played a very difficult schedule? Without a doubt.



Is a QB supposed to overcome these issues? The great ones do.



Is that asking A LOT of a true freshman QB? It sure is, but that's the hand he was dealt and eight games into his career he's busted 21 a lot more than he's not.

Italics wrote:
Heaps bashers are going to continue to use the TCU stats for quite some time. Kinda useless considering the fact that it was TCU, it was in Forth Worth, Max Hall always played horribly against them, and Heaps didn't have nearly the tools Hall did.

If you're going to attack Heaps numbers (which isn't hard to do this year), fair enough - but using the TCU game is useless IMO.

Amen.



And you know, this really reminds me the Beck-bashing that used to occupy the other discussion board before his breakout season as a senior. All would call for Matt Berry or Jason Beck, call him "captain check-down," and use specific games how Beck does not have "it" (sorry to bring that up brethren).



I feel the same way about Heaps that I did about Beck...it is obvious to anyone who observes that there is unusual abilities in Heaps (like Beck). And like Beck, Heaps will thrive when the coaching for the offense comprehensively improves and as he gains experience.



So while we can call for Lark or Munns, I think we can consider this an investment year in Heaps because he will give us the chance to go places we simply cannot go with anyone else in our program. I don't think that it because the other quarterbacks are that bad...it is because Heaps obviously has the ability to be that good...among the best BYU has ever had.



So to bring these discussions to the central point of many of our threads...why hasn't Heaps shown the progress all of us would like to see?



It is either because of him or the coaching. What is your take?



My take?



12 yards.

dmcougar wrote:
One other: Anae's dink and dunk scheme would conceivably lower Yards per catch as opposed to Chow's offense that went down field more.

Lots of great comments.



To respond to a few. Anae's offene does lover Yards per catch. In 2008, Max Hall threw the ball more times that Detmer did in 1989 and 1991, but Hall didn't crack 4,000 yards, while Detmer did both years even though he completed a much lower percentage of his passes.



As for Detmer's age, he was older. He graduated HS a year later than normal. At one point he repeated a grade to get bigger for football purposes. Add to that his redshirt year and he was essentially an RM (age wise).



Kitic77 you made a ton of great points that I agree with. I tried to take all of the negative external factors (WRs, coaching, etc.) into account in the ranking. My focus was more on comparing Heaps to the other Fr. QBs, not to discuss the offenses struggles and Heaps' future, but if I were to do it, it would include many of the point you made. Come 2011, I think many people will be surprised that basically the same personnel can play so much better.

Y12 wrote:
Come 2011, I think many people will be surprised that basically the same personnel can play so much better.

I think it will be similar to the jump from 2005 to 2006. Maybe not 10 wins (although who knows?), but significantly better.

kitic77 wrote:

Heaps bashers are going to continue to use the TCU stats for quite some time. Kinda useless considering the fact that it was TCU, it was in Forth Worth, Max Hall always played horribly against them, and Heaps didn't have nearly the tools Hall did.

If you're going to attack Heaps numbers (which isn't hard to do this year), fair enough - but using the TCU game is useless IMO.

It's not just the TCU game's numbers. BYU QBs have been poor in that game the last four years. But it's the numbers against other middling teams. Heaps has the worst passer rating of any QB to ever play meaning minutes at BYU.



Is part of that because he is a freshman? Sure is. Is part of that because he's not getting much support from his recievers? You bet. Is part of that because he has an offensive coaching staff that is/was unable to make a decision regarding the QB? No doubt. Is part of that because the offensive coaching staff seems to be more interested in "protecting" Heaps than calling a game to win or sticking with what works? Seems to be. Is part of it because Heaps is struggling to make throws in games he reportedly makes in practice? Apparently. Is part of if because Heaps may not have been as ready as the blind sHeaps professed and wanted to believe? I think so.



Does any of that mean he can't turn it around? Nope. Does any of it mean he's not talented? Nope. Does any of that mean he won't finish his career at BYU as an all-time great? I don't think so. Does any of that mean I've completely written him off and never want to see him dress in Cougar blue again? Not a chance.



Does any of that mean the criticism that he's statistically the worst QB to ever man the position mean anything beyond his current level of play? No, it is simply an accurate and true reflection on his current level of play.



Does it do a disservice to Jake to try and sugar-coat his struggles so as to practically absolve him of all responsibility? I think it does.



Is he getting help from his recievers? Not enough. Is he getting good coaching and play-calling from his coaches? Doesn't appear to be. Has he played a very difficult schedule? Without a doubt.



Is a QB supposed to overcome these issues? The great ones do.



Is that asking A LOT of a true freshman QB? It sure is, but that's the hand he was dealt and eight games into his career he's busted 21 a lot more than he's not.

Is this a lot of self answered questions in one post? Yes. TIC.

Pete Thomas of CSU



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cougman wrote:
Pete Thomas of CSU



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They've played three same opponents: Air Force, Nevada and TCU.

Here's how the two stack up:

Thomas: 40-65-1-310; 0 TDs, 98.52 rating, 61.5%. 0-3 record scoring 27, 6, and 0 points (11ppg).

Heaps: 40-81-3-335; 0 TDs, 76.72 rating, 49.4%. 0-2 record (only 8 snaps vs AF). Scoring 13 and 3 points (8ppg [not counting AF]).

Once again, this is first and foremost a coaching, decision making and Robert Anae problem. I all but guarantee that any of the other true freshman QB's playing in the NCAA would be doing worse at BYU than where they are now. The converse, that Heaps would likely do better anywhere else, is also true.



In the end, Anae will be gone for 2011 and other major changes will take place. Heaps will be the guy, Lark and Munns will be the very capable backups and riley will be riley and have an important role on the scout team and running 10-12 plays every week designed for him. Next year we will be much, much better.

I have never been a big Robert Anae fan, but he is not the main cause of this problem or even close to it. Heaps needs to own up to his accountability and maybe people will start to respect his leadership. The problem is not that he is the worst true freshman to play at BYU. The problem is that he is a true freshman. As listed by someone above, not all of the 5 QBs compared in the original post were true freshmen and even they struggled. Detmer was a redshirt freshman, and although he had the problem of getting confused by defenses early and throwing into a disguised coverage, he never had a problem hitting wide open receivers or seeing open receivers. He had touch and zip as needed from the get go. But he was well into his redshirt freshman year when he first got PT, and he struggled - but improved more quickly.



Heaps is not as good right now (a red-shirted Heaps might have been by mid next year, though). The real disservice to Heaps is to have played him at all this year - and if it were not borne of necessity, he would have had the opportunity to redshirt. But neither Nelson nor Heaps established themself as being ready to fully take the reins and nobody else was even close to being ready.



I hope TX is right - sure sounds like he is meeting with Bronco daily - Craigo, I am sure will note the above bold prediction in his notebook - And I will wonder if BYU TX will keep the same name next year if things are better but maybe 7-5 or 8-4 better and perhaps some of his projected changes do nothappen.



Not even Bronco can predict that - last season Bronco predicted that as many as 3 or ore would not be here this year - then other than one retiring due to health issues, they were all here - translation - nobody else wanted them as badly as Bronco assumed.



If we do get an overhaul of offensive coaching staff - that doesn't always work out well in the first year - as players have been recruited to play Anae ball - you don't tell the new guy, come in - the scheme sucks and is predictable - don't change the scheme though, just improve the play calling - and don't lose any games and you need to win by passing with gaudy numbers becasue our fans won't put up with many more rushing TDs and no Heisman noise.

byutx wrote:
Once again, this is first and foremost a coaching, decision making and Robert Anae problem. I all but guarantee that any of the other true freshman QB's playing in the NCAA would be doing worse at BYU than where they are now. The converse, that Heaps would likely do better anywhere else, is also true.



In the end, Anae will be gone for 2011 and other major changes will take place. Heaps will be the guy, Lark and Munns will be the very capable backups and riley will be riley and have an important role on the scout team and running 10-12 plays every week designed for him. Next year we will be much, much better.

Once again it comes back to blaming everyone but the guy with the ball in his hands. I don't think that Robert Anae is at fault when Heaps over or under throws recievers. Heaps PER rating is bad because he misses on the easy throws. I can't even count how many times he has missed on full back throws, screen passes and over the middle throws that are within 10 yards. Yes Robert Anae's coaching has been predictable but it is hard to not be predictable when your guys can't even execute the simple plays.

frdbtr wrote:

Once again, this is first and foremost a coaching, decision making and Robert Anae problem. I all but guarantee that any of the other true freshman QB's playing in the NCAA would be doing worse at BYU than where they are now. The converse, that Heaps would likely do better anywhere else, is also true.



In the end, Anae will be gone for 2011 and other major changes will take place. Heaps will be the guy, Lark and Munns will be the very capable backups and riley will be riley and have an important role on the scout team and running 10-12 plays every week designed for him. Next year we will be much, much better.

Once again it comes back to blaming everyone but the guy with the ball in his hands. I don't think that Robert Anae is at fault when Heaps over or under throws recievers. Heaps PER rating is bad because he misses on the easy throws. I can't even count how many times he has missed on full back throws, screen passes and over the middle throws that are within 10 yards. Yes Robert Anae's coaching has been predictable but it is hard to not be predictable when your guys can't even execute the simple plays.

Not saying Heaps isn't at fault. He is simply not getting the job done. In any other year, I would be all over a QB playing so poorly. But not this year and not with the current set of facts. We are where we are because of coaching decisions during spring (not to name Jake the guy) over the summer (not to name Jake the guy) and throughout fall camp (not to name Jake the guy) and into the season (not to name Jake the guy). As it was, he did not get enough snaps to adequately prepare for the season. By the time all of his problems became glaringly obvious, we were far into the season and long past the time where we are still working on developing and figuring out our own scheme, as the focus changes to game prep (believe it or not, we actually do prepare and scheme for opponents).



I could be hopeful and think that this break would give him and the team a chance to get some of those "fall camp" snaps, but it's likely not going to be enough. During the season, team activities are limited to around 20 hours a week, unlike fall camp where the kids put in 50+hours. Fall camp is where tons of learning and postition mastery takes place. Jake never got what he needed and we are where we are largely because of that.

If you can not see the problems with this offense and play calling with this scheme, you either do not know football or you have your head in the sand. The passing scheme is AWFUL. The receivers are not being put in enough positions to make plays, the TE's certainly are not, and thus, the QB is not. The pass patterns we run are worse than Crowton's right now. Dink and dunk is fine, but why not try doing it over the middle some with a WR or TE, instead of to the RB every time? G owatch how Austin Collie is used by the Colts, then ask why we do not run anything remotely close to those patterns with our guys in the slot. And what really has happened to the pass to the RB in the flat this year? And when we have 3rd and 2 or less, why does Anae insist on running with JJ who does not convert those, instead of Kariya-who AWLAYS does. The problems with this offense, the play calling, the scheming are so numerous, it is a joke. Jake's stats are not great, but to put them all on him is just dumb, when you factor in drops, play calling, and lack of any game breaker on offense this year. Coach Anae is the problem here, without question.

I have never put all of the problems with BYU's offense on Heaps shoulders, but I was one of the first who put forth the idea that he was part of the problem, more the 2 weeks ago. My position has not changed, and he still looks terrible at QB. I am still holding out hope that he will start looking like a BYU QB, starting with his first posession against UNLV.