The most important stat...

Outside of points against is 3rd down success. Either picking up 1st downs on offense or getting off the field on defense.



Traditionally, BYU has been good in these areas against all but the best teams that they play. They have not been good at that this year. No one is stepping up and making a play.



For this year to improve, BYU must start winning on third downs.



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Wrong. The most important stat is passing efficiency followed only by passing efficiency defense. Since 2000, BYU has played 128 games. The team that had the higher passing efficiency is 112-16 (.875) in those 128 games. There is no other stat that has a higher correlation to winning than passing efficiency.



To use your stat, BYU has played 17 games in that same span where we converted less than 30% of our 3rd downs. Our record in those games is 5-12 (.417). 3rd down conversions are important but it is more important to throw the ball efficiently.



Of course, if you are throwing the ball efficiently, you are also likely seeing convertible 3rd downs and then converting on a high percentage of them.



But where BYU must improve most is in passing efficiency. Right now our QBs' combined passer rating is 94.96 (Nelson: 104.55; Heaps: 88.57). BYU's record in games with a passer rating under 100: 6-18 (.250). BYU must start throwing more effectively. NO other stat is more important.

Points scored vs points allowed? (TIC)



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If we got any yards on first and second downs, third down would be a conversion more often than not. Until we get out of this "throw throw throw, punt" scheme it will be a long year. JJ needs to get the ball more with screen passes and draws.



Our offense is as predictable right now as noodles on a chinese menu.