List our Chances

My first thought was to scold you for listing USU as a 50/50 game, but on further reflection I think I have to agree with you; it's a road game, USU will be uber-pumped for it (especially if they think they have a chance), and USU hasn't had a good beat-down yet this season (whether that's because they played well at OU or because OU played poorly).



Nevada is a bit of an unknown quantity at this point; they haven't played a decent team yet, and they haven't played on the road. They have Cal at home this weekend, so we should learn something there, but the first time they play a good team on the road will be in Provo and I think UW's first two game demonstrate pretty clearly the difference between home and away games (especially early in the season).



Other than that, my only thoughts are "we have to play FSU, TCU, and UoEwe on the road in the same year, yuck"

I'm willing to put SDSU at home in the "WINS" category. Can I create a 70/30 win category for USU and 60/40 win category for Nevada?

I also think SDSU in the win category because we are at home.

Nevada should go into the tough (minus) category because they already have demonstrated (granted against lesser compatition) they can get it into the endzone. We are just lucky we have them at home is all I can say.

I wouldn't move SDSU to the "wins" because it's not a lock. Having said that, I think we beat them at finish with at least 6 wins. I think we have almost zero chance @ TCU and @ FSU and very little chance @ Utah. Nevada and @USU will be the difference between finishing 6-6 and 8-4.



Also, go Air Force-bust the BCS!

I think some of you guys are in too much of a panic mode.



I know the AF game was brutal to watch and exposed some of BYU’s weaknesses but that was a tough game and the fact is AF looks REALLY good this year. It wouldn’t shock me if they won the MWC this year. AF always gives Utah fits and TCU beat them by only 3 last year. The TCU team that killed BYU and Utah.



So I would take that game for what I see it as-a loss on the road to a really good team. No shame in that especially with the young/inexperienced team BYU has.



I think BYU wins the 5 games Mars has pegged as “Wins” and I really don’t see them losing any of the “50/50” games either. Maybe they slip up and lose one of those but I don’t think so. And conventional wisdom says they lose to FSU, TCU, and Utah but I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull one of those three off.



I said at the beginning of the season that I thought BYU would win 10 again including their bowl game. I might revise that down a little but I think it’s still achievable.



Deep breaths fellas. ;)

I'm still trying to figure out why FSU is "tough"



Is it the way they pummeled Samford?

Is it Ponder's 4 yard per pass attempt at OU with a lower pass efficiency rating that Riley Nelson in the second half against AFA?

Is it the 400 yards they gave up in the air last week?



I get it--they woodshedded us last year on our slip-n-slide sponsored turf. But that was a fluke game that we should have won. I put this game at 50/50.

snoscythe wrote:
I'm still trying to figure out why FSU is "tough"



Is it the way they pummeled Samford?

Is it Ponder's 4 yard per pass attempt at OU with a lower pass efficiency rating that Riley Nelson in the second half against AFA?

Is it the 400 yards they gave up in the air last week?



I get it--they woodshedded us last year on our slip-n-slide sponsored turf. But that was a fluke game that we should have won. I put this game at 50/50.

I think FSU has the potential to pummel us if things go just the right way, just like they did last year. Having said that. Folks, Bronco and Co, want this game BADLY. FSU didn't just beat us last year, they HUMILIATED us. Not only that but they took a piece of our field and planted it in thier "turf graveyard". That is the equivelent of a hitter pointing and laughing at a pitcher all the way around the bases after hitting a home run. It is totally showing us up. I am not sure what to make of this game but frankly, I think it is one that Bronco has prepared for all summer. It wouldn't suprise me at all to see BYU holding a piece of turf after a win that they are bringing home.

My biggest worry in the FSU game is the long travel, combined with coming off a bad week. For a team of 50+ traveling freshman and sophmores, this seems like a deadly combo.



Freshman simply do not have the experience and mental toughness to deal with this 95% of the time.

My biggest worry about FSU is simply that we're starting the wrong QB. Riley's weakness is aligned with the FSU weakness (pass D), and his primary strength (mobility) will be running right into the teeth of the FSU strength (D front seven; speed).



Unless Nelson is Steve Young Jr. and has been hiding it in the first 2 games, we need Heaps to play, and to play well, to beat FSU.

33311710 wrote:
My biggest worry about FSU is simply that we're starting the wrong QB. Riley's weakness is aligned with the FSU weakness (pass D), and his primary strength (mobility) will be running right into the teeth of the FSU strength (D front seven; speed).



Unless Nelson is Steve Young Jr. and has been hiding it in the first 2 games, we need Heaps to play, and to play well, to beat FSU.

BYU ran into the teeth of their front seven last year to the tune of 108 yards on 19 carries.

kitic77 wrote:
I'm willing to put SDSU at home in the "WINS" category. Can I create a 70/30 win category for USU and 60/40 win category for Nevada?

I am not sure about that. we barely beat them with max and co last year. why are we more certain about it this year. remember that game. it was close and we could not stop their wide receiver. i am sure thomas will be a huge upgrade though in helping with the pass defense :sick:

jonnylingo wrote:

I'm willing to put SDSU at home in the "WINS" category. Can I create a 70/30 win category for USU and 60/40 win category for Nevada?

I am not sure about that. we barely beat them with max and co last year. why are we more certain about it this year. remember that game. it was close and we could not stop their wide receiver. i am sure thomas will be a huge upgrade though in helping with the pass defense :sick:

Last year SDSU used an offensive game plan they had never used before. BYU had no reason to expect it as it was never on film. Their plan was basically to put 7 guys in pass protection, send their three receivers downfield at full-tilt, and heave the ball. The extra time their max-protect package bought gave their tall speedy receivers enough time to get behind the BYU-patented soft coverage and do the one thing our defense is designed to prevent--get receivers open behind the secondary. It was a sell-out scheme that was an all-or-nothing gamble. They came close, but couldn't pull it off even with the element of surprise. This year the max-protect air-it-out offense is on film, so I have zero concern about it.

To me there are only three high probability losses remaining.



FSU - due to distance, them coming of a loss, and our inability to handle them last year at home with a better team

TCU - They will win a BCS game this year - we won't be in the BCS discussion this year

Utah - We are the away team, its our rival, we won the last one



The rest should be wins. Having said that, AF should have been a win in my book so count on us losing one of those should wins - I don't know to who but I think we get beat again by a team we should beat. On that same token, I think we upset one of those three probable losses. So.... we finish with four losses in the regular season, win our bowl game and my prediction is 9 and 4.

I am predicting these as guaranteed losses.



FSU

TCU

Utah



I think BYU will lose one of these games.



Nevada

San Diego

Utah State



I think the best we can hope for this year is an

8-4 Record

7-5 is more likely.



If this creative joke known as the 2 QB system keeps going



I will place it at a 7-5 or 6-6 year.



If Riley is the starter I predict a 6-6 year most likely with a 7-5 best case scenario.



With Jake heaps in the starting I will say it is a guaranteed 7-5, or 8-4 season.



If some of the talented young people don't start playing more and the people with seniority are allowed to stink it up on a weekly basis I predict we lose two people to transfers.

ByuIvie wrote:
I am predicting these as guaranteed losses.



FSU

TCU

Utah

I hereby put forward a motion that anyone who ever states that any :utard: game is a "guaranteed loss" immediately have their fanhood (and their manhood) revoked.

Second call for a vote!

33311710 wrote:

I am predicting these as guaranteed losses.



FSU

TCU

Utah

I hereby put forward a motion that anyone who ever states that any :utard: game is a "guaranteed loss" immediately have their fanhood (and their manhood) revoked.

I third the motion!



I also call "Not It!" on being in charge of revoking someones manhood... :sick:

snoscythe wrote:

kitic77 wrote:
I'm willing to put SDSU at home in the "WINS" category. Can I create a 70/30 win category for USU and 60/40 win category for Nevada?

I am not sure about that. we barely beat them with max and co last year. why are we more certain about it this year. remember that game. it was close and we could not stop their wide receiver. i am sure thomas will be a huge upgrade though in helping with the pass defense :sick:

Last year SDSU used an offensive game plan they had never used before. BYU had no reason to expect it as it was never on film. Their plan was basically to put 7 guys in pass protection, send their three receivers downfield at full-tilt, and heave the ball. The extra time their max-protect package bought gave their tall speedy receivers enough time to get behind the BYU-patented soft coverage and do the one thing our defense is designed to prevent--get receivers open behind the secondary. It was a sell-out scheme that was an all-or-nothing gamble. They came close, but couldn't pull it off even with the element of surprise. This year the max-protect air-it-out offense is on film, so I have zero concern about it.

Not only that but to make the surprise offense worse...Lee Aguirre was in as a sub most of the game do to injury. It was basically his first game. Mix that with the offense SDSU was running and that had trouble written all over it. Ohhh...and surprise offense or not, I was not impressed at all with Aguirre's defense.