QB Breakdown

I went back through the PBP and came up with these "facts."

Season stats:

Heaps: 15-29-1-146, 0 TDs 87.12 rating. 51.7% complete, 0 TD drives, 2 FG drives.

Nelson: 19-36-0-204, 2 TDs, 118.71 rating, 52.8% complete, 4 TD drives, 0 FG drives.



I also broke it down by drive. Through halftime of the AF game,

Heaps: 9 drives, 17 first downs, 3 three-and-outs, 4 punts, 2 Turnovers.



Through the AF game:

Nelson: 16 drives, 24 first downs, 4 three-and-outs, 8 punts, 1 Turnover. (of note, in the 2nd half of the AF game, Riley had 5 drives, got all of 5 first downs, had 2 three-and-outs and 5 punts).



Make of it what you will. It does seem Riley was more effective before being the only QB to play, but Jake has yet to really be truly effective.

Thanks kitic. I don't think it mattered who was playing QB at AFA.



What's going to be ridiculous is if Heaps starts at FSU and we get blown out. Do we let Lark take a shot?

Wow. The Nelson apologists just won't stop. Heaps would have 5 td drives if people could hold on to the ball. I know that's not the point.



The offense was just awful on Saturday. Less than 100 yards passing. 20 qb runs, because he wouldn't look past his first receiver. The running teams qb had only 9 runs, and more passing yards.



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I think that is the point if Riley is our guy they need to change the offense. Make easier reads and passes Riley has the brains to run this offense just not the arm. He can throw the ball he is just not a gunslinger and to make some of the passes in this offense you need a strong arm. I like Riley alot he has heart but a throw happy offense is not his strength. In the AFA game we never really challenged them down the field at all. How many games last year did Max attempt over 30 passes?

Thank you kitic, I'm glad there are a few well reasoned posters here who are able to show actual statistics to back up their point.

Not trying to be an apologist. Well not entirely. But Nelson is/was clearly not the only problem we have. Nelson given the small sample set, seems to be more effective when he was sharing reps and not the only QB playing.



Here's what I think we know:

- our QBs were awful against AF.

- our QBs got worse against AF when only one was playing.

- Jake has yet be really effective - whether through his own or teammates mistakes.

- Whatever was the plan against AF, it needs to be completely reworked.



I've been saying from the beginning that QB won't matter this year that our record will be what it will be regardless of who's taking the snaps. I've thought we were going to lose four games this year (@ FSU, @ TCU, @ Utah and another one along the way). I haven't seen anything to show me that I'm wrong.

kitic77 wrote:
Not trying to be an apologist. Well not entirely. But Nelson is/was clearly not the only problem we have. Nelson given the small sample set, seems to be more effective when he was sharing reps and not the only QB playing.



Here's what I think we know:

- our QBs were awful against AF.

- our QBs got worse against AF when only one was playing.

- Jake has yet be really effective - whether through his own or teammates mistakes.

- Whatever was the plan against AF, it needs to be completely reworked.



I've been saying from the beginning that QB won't matter this year that our record will be what it will be regardless of who's taking the snaps. I've thought we were going to lose four games this year (@ FSU, @ TCU, @ Utah and another one along the way). I haven't seen anything to show me that I'm wrong.

Hopefully a FSU loss this weekend will finally shut you up. ;)

CDH wrote:
I think that is the point if Riley is our guy they need to change the offense. Make easier reads and passes Riley has the brains to run this offense just not the arm. He can throw the ball he is just not a gunslinger and to make some of the passes in this offense you need a strong arm. I like Riley alot he has heart but a throw happy offense is not his strength. In the AFA game we never really challenged them down the field at all. How many games last year did Max attempt over 30 passes?

Max attempted more than 30 passes in 8 of the 13 games. BYU has 65 attempts in two games. Would BYU have that many if it was just Riley, probably not, but maybe. Riley was quite effective at throwing against UW. Jake had 23 attempts and Riley had a 2:1 pass:run ratio. It's not improbable to think that Riley would have had an additional 16 passes and 8 rushes. If Riley had continued at his same pace, he would have had 22 completions on 34 attempts (.647), 262 yards, 4 TDs. Not a bad day's work.



And while Jake may be a "gunslinger" who can "make some of those passes" he's yet to show in a live game an effectiveness you need. People talk all they want about how accurate and good Jake is. But the facts are he didn't show it in those two games. Maybe he would and will if given both more practice and game reps. The facts further show that through spring ball, fall camp and the first two games, Jake's accuracy, passer efficiency and points the team has scored have all been behind what Riley has produced.



I think what's clear is that the 2 QBs can co-exist, but that it's not the most beneficial to the team. I would like to see BYU make a decision and forge the identity we've had the last four years. And given the fact that Jake has played and therefore can no longer redshirt, unless he gets injured real quick and that he is the future of the program, I hope that decision will be for him to be the full-time starter.



I think Bronco would like to delay that decision and let Jake be worked in a little longer, but I think his hand has been forced and the sooner he makes the decision to go with Jake the better for BYU.

Good points I like seeing those stats to back up what you are saying.

Hopefully our best lineman gets over the flu, JJ, OC, tight ends, and others wipe the butter off their fingers, the punter remembers how to punt, and the defense remembers to dhow up and whichever QB starts will look a lot better than either QB looked in Saturday.



Heaps has not shown much yet. Maybe it is imminent and maybe it is not. It will come eventually. Both Nelson and Heaps have missed out on scoring drives due to drive killing penalties, dropped passes, and fumbles. Nelson has done a better job of overcoming all if that.



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kitic77 wrote:
I went back through the PBP and came up with these "facts."

Season stats:

Heaps: 15-29-1-146, 0 TDs 87.12 rating. 51.7% complete, 0 TD drives, 2 FG drives.

Nelson: 19-36-0-204, 2 TDs, 118.71 rating, 52.8% complete, 4 TD drives, 0 FG drives.



I also broke it down by drive. Through halftime of the AF game,

Heaps: 9 drives, 17 first downs, 3 three-and-outs, 4 punts, 2 Turnovers.



Through the AF game:

Nelson: 16 drives, 24 first downs, 4 three-and-outs, 8 punts, 1 Turnover. (of note, in the 2nd half of the AF game, Riley had 5 drives, got all of 5 first downs, had 2 three-and-outs and 5 punts).



Make of it what you will. It does seem Riley was more effective before being the only QB to play, but Jake has yet to really be truly effective.

k, you just put on paper what my gut was telling me when I was watching the games. I was starting to doubt myself because I come here and everyone is talking about how bad Riley looked and how Jake was doing much better and needed to start. All I knew was that when Riley was in the game, the offense seemed to move down the field and when Jake was in the game, it appeared that it would go 3 and out most of the time. I still think that Jake's reads have been slow and he has thrown into coverage trusting on his arm strength. I still think he is going to start in the FSU game but I think there will be a short leash before Riley comes in. I am hoping that if he starts, he doesn't get yanked because the main reason I was against him starting this year is because I didn't want a freshman to start just to struggle, get yanked and lose his confidence.

If you're looking for a stat here's one;

First half BYU Played two QB's and scored 14 points. Second half BYU played one QB and scored ZERO!!!!!

Put 8 men in the box and make Riley throw and what happens? Riley can't spread the defense and AF used it all second half.

Mark my words, if BYU plays Riley as the only QB for FSU or any game for that matter the same thing is going to happen.

How does the saying go? There are lies, damn lies, and STATISTICS. As we have seen all summer long, numbers tell the story you are looking for, they are as subject to perception as the behavior that begets them.



As a long, long time fan of BYU football, and admitted novice of the finer points of coaching the game, I am not afraid to acknowledge my biases. I have been waiting a long time for a HIGHLY touted recruit to cement BYU's spot on the sports map.



While I am happy about the great successes we have had and the names that have come through BYU that are now easily recognized, I am equally (maybe more) disappointed about the ones that the nation looked at before they came and who left (Shawn Bradley......[I know; different sport] and Ben Olsen . Or the ones who said they would come then changed their minds and went on to be successful (Heloti Gmata).



I was secretly hoping the Jake Heaps might be able to do more than win games, but perhaps even change perceptions of the sporting world. I don't think Riley has the recognition to influence BYU football for years to come. I think Jake does.



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It seemed to me against AFA we were really one dimensional and they ate that up. Whether it was bad routes or just there always seemed to be 9 guys from AFA in the box. Those crossing or slant routes just were not there with all the traffic. Our O-line was pounding them in the first quarter but it seemed to go away as the game went on. Like they new we could not throw the ball. I am not putting it just on the QB maybe it was routes or play calling. But you win as a team and lose as a team. I am not trying to be a pain or start a pi$$in match Kitic77 I want to know your personal opinion on Heaps vs Nelson just as passing QB.Or if you think Heaps could of stretched the field more against AFA. I have read alot of your posts and respect you that is why I am asking you. I like em both and would like it if the 2 QB system would work for us!

As I have watched the last two games I have found Jake's "turns" in the rotation to be very UN-satisfying (not DIS-satisfying.....big difference). It's feels like hoping for some prime rib and getting high quality tofu. I just don't think it is eentirely Jake's fault that his drives have stalled, and not being able to get back in on the next set to figure it out really leaves me with a sour taste in my mouth.



Once again, I think that next year, if Heaps leads the team to a great season, Heaps will get lots of news coverage and Heisman talk. If Nelson leads BYU to an equally impressive year, he will not get coverage, and BYU will get less.



HEAPS CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PROGRAM FOR YEARS TO COME!!!!



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Ah stats, the lone refuge of those who know little about sports. Trust me, as a Cardinals fan, I see stats thrown out everyday on similar forums to try and "show" everyone that the offense doesn't suck even though we're 6 back in the division despite having 2 Cy Young candidates and a likely ROY pitcher. I trust my own eyes and experience along with stats more than just stats alone.



Here's the point for those who don't see it yet:



Riley is a "wing-it" player. He doesn't need any type of rhythm to get in sync with his type of game. Drop back, make a read and if it's not open you book it for a gap. I could put on a helmet and do that too. That is why Riley's numbers have been better so far. It's less predictable for a time, but not conducive to a rhythm, passing offense that we all expect to put up points.



Heaps, on the other hand, is a system player. He absolutely needs multiple series to develop a rhythm with his receivers, especially as a true Freshman! He makes all the reads and usually has found the open receiver. Honestly, how many chances has he had this season to get in sync with anyone? Switching off possessions is not conducive to his playing style as well as getting timing down since throwing is his game.



Throwing stats out there to make a decision about who should Q is an insufficient argument that doesn't account for the intricacies and immeasurables of this game.

Ygridiron4ever wrote:
How does the saying go? There are lies, damn lies, and STATISTICS. As we have seen all summer long, numbers tell the story you are looking for, they are as subject to perception as the behavior that begets them.

Except I've yet to really see a set of stats that point the story that Jake has out performed Riley.

Ygridiron4ever wrote:
As a long, long time fan of BYU football, and admitted novice of the finer points of coaching the game, I am not afraid to acknowledge my biases. I have been waiting a long time for a HIGHLY touted recruit to cement BYU's spot on the sports map.



While I am happy about the great successes we have had and the names that have come through BYU that are now easily recognized, I am equally (maybe more) disappointed about the ones that the nation looked at before they came and who left (Shawn Bradley......[I know; different sport] and Ben Olsen . Or the ones who said they would come then changed their minds and went on to be successful (Heloti Gmata).



I was secretly hoping the Jake Heaps might be able to do more than win games, but perhaps even change perceptions of the sporting world. I don't think Riley has the recognition to influence BYU football for years to come. I think Jake does.



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No doubt. It's tough being a BYU fan. And I was quite upset when Bradley left early. Of course, I can think of 44 million reasons why he did. not as many for Olson. I think Jake still has plenty of time to win plenty of games. I bet Jake and the coaches wish he had been more ready than he's proved to be as a true freshman. Whatever experience he does get, and I think it will be plenty, will serve BYU well in the future. And I think it will serve BYU better than say the experience Wynn is getting for Utah as Heaps will wind up being a far better QB.

mizzoucoug wrote:
Ah stats, the lone refuge of those who know little about sports. Trust me, as a Cardinals fan, I see stats thrown out everyday on similar forums to try and "show" everyone that the offense doesn't suck even though we're 6 back in the division despite having 2 Cy Young candidates and a likely ROY pitcher. I trust my own eyes and experience along with stats more than just stats alone.



Here's the point for those who don't see it yet:



Riley is a "wing-it" player. He doesn't need any type of rhythm to get in sync with his type of game. Drop back, make a read and if it's not open you book it for a gap. I could put on a helmet and do that too. That is why Riley's numbers have been better so far. It's less predictable for a time, but not conducive to a rhythm, passing offense that we all expect to put up points.



Heaps, on the other hand, is a system player. He absolutely needs multiple series to develop a rhythm with his receivers, especially as a true Freshman! He makes all the reads and usually has found the open receiver. Honestly, how many chances has he had this season to get in sync with anyone? Switching off possessions is not conducive to his playing style as well as getting timing down since throwing is his game.



Throwing stats out there to make a decision about who should Q is an insufficient argument that doesn't account for the intricacies and immeasurables of this game.

I'd argue that football stats and baseball stats are entirely different and tell entirely different stories. I can't point to a in-game baseball stat that gives you an 87.4% chance of winning like I can for football. Baseball by nature is full of numbers that really don't tell you as much as you'd like. Football isn't like that.



I'd fully agree that the current system/rotation hasn't played to Heaps' strengths and I think we'll see a switch that does. Although that change may not come until after FSU - as I don't think either QB stands much chance of playing well next week.

IndiCoug wrote:
If you're looking for a stat here's one;

First half BYU Played two QB's and scored 14 points. Second half BYU played one QB and scored ZERO!!!!!

This is clearly a huge oversimplification.

CDH wrote:
It seemed to me against AFA we were really one dimensional and they ate that up. Whether it was bad routes or just there always seemed to be 9 guys from AFA in the box. Those crossing or slant routes just were not there with all the traffic. Our O-line was pounding them in the first quarter but it seemed to go away as the game went on. Like they new we could not throw the ball. I am not putting it just on the QB maybe it was routes or play calling. But you win as a team and lose as a team. I am not trying to be a pain or start a pi$$in match Kitic77 I want to know your personal opinion on Heaps vs Nelson just as passing QB.Or if you think Heaps could of stretched the field more against AFA. I have read alot of your posts and respect you that is why I am asking you. I like em both and would like it if the 2 QB system would work for us!

I've been pretty consistent about my position on the QBs. Heaps is the most polished QB recruit we've ever had who is going to be an all-time great before he's done. I don't think that's going to be this year. I really wanted him to RS as I thought the Heaps of 2011-2014 would be better than the Heaps of 2010-2013. I've never thought that Riley couldn't get it done and never thought that he was as poor a thrower as he's been portrayed. Heaps is all fundamentals and mechanics. And until he gets up to speed of the D1 level, it's not going to be better than a playmaker like Nelson. I don't think Heaps would have mattered. He's yet to show any more accuracy with the downfield ball than Nelson. Sure he can get it down there, but an incompletion is still an incompletion. Eventually you have to start hitting them or the defense won't respect the long ball any more than they would with Riley who "can't throw it." I've never thought either QB was the difference between an 11-win season and 7-win one.