I think 1995 is also an interesting comparison:
The year before, BYU finished in the Top 20, won their bowl game in a blowout, and beat Oklahoma. Then John Walsh left and Steve Sarkisian transferred in the offseason.
Like 2010, 1995 began with a home game against a Pac 10 team and an away game against Air Force, though in the reverse order as 2010. The difference is BYU didn't have a QB controversy that year, but lost both games by a combined score of 64-21. Later that year, BYU was able to take a tough ASU team to the wire in Tempe and Sarkisian was pretty good the rest of the way, finishing with his real breakout game against Fresno State (31-34 passing, 2 of the incomplete passes were intentional throwaways).
1995 was a transition year that led to one of the best years in BYU history. If BYU keeps up the QB rotation this year, or even worse, picks the wrong QB to develop, 2011 might also be a transition season when it should be a stellar year.