Archived Topic

Will BYU beat Air Force?

by Mars · 9/5/2010

Mars

9/5/2010, 11:56:17 AM

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201009040087" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Air Force led Northwestern State 24-21 at halftime at home, but ended up destroying them 65-21. Defensive leader DB Rembert hurt his neck in the 1st half, but the team seemed to make great adjustments for the 2nd half.

Air Force's QB Tim Jefferson is a very good player, a strong dual threat. He runs very well, but throws for more yards than the average Falcon quarterback, usually getting big chunks on infrequent but very accurate passing.

Asher Clark and Jared Tew are the Falcons two main RBs. Both good runners, small but fast, difficult to keep contained. Air Force can spread the ball around though.

A.F. returns a solid secondary, but seems to be very strong against the run this year. Last year they were then 2nd-best defensive team in the MWC, to TCU only.

* BYU's has always used their tight ends extensively against Air Force, often in a double TE set. Not this year I would think.

* The Falcons are smaller and slower than your typical team, so wearing them down with our huge O-Line and using big RBs to pound the ball has worked extremely well the past few years. DiLuigi doesn't fit this model.

* Air Force likes to take advantage of poor defensive assignment coverage breakdowns, instead of size or speed. This has hurt them against us in the past, but could help them against us this season.

* BYU usually likes to use quick short-to-midrange throws against the Academy, but our receivers are dropping a lot more passes this year than usual, which leads to more killed drives.

* Air Force tends to start out hot, but cools down as their academics begin to overwhelm them. BYU tends to start out slow, but pick up speed as the season goes on and the offense and defense improve their execution and learn better how to play disciplined football and fulfill their assignments. Having this game on the road the second week of the season is a big challenge for a very young Cougars squad.

So how tight is this one going to be? Closer than the Washington game? Is Air Force better than Washington this season (record-wise, I think obviously yes).

craigoscarson

9/5/2010, 2:00:30 PM

Hard to gauge Air Force after they played a DII team that didnt' win a single game last year; except to say that Northwestern State managed to move the ball on them pretty effortlessly in the first half.

There's a likelihood that their best player and all america candidate Reggie Rembert will not play. He was on the ground for almost 15 minutes yesterday and taken off on a stretcher. Most coaches would not play a kid a week later that suffered a potentially serious head/neck injury and Air Force doesn't seem to be the type that would risk their season just for one game.

With Harvey Unga and our O-line size advantage, we were just too much for AFA the last few years. Without Harvey, AFA might have a chance.

BYU has one major advantage, they've already played a team with big time athletes and decent sized linebackers, and linemen. Air Force went up against a pee-wee DII team that won zero games last season... and now they have to deal with the baddest O-line they'll see all season.

We also have the best tackling secondary in possibly the history of BYU football. (we probably had better cover guys in '96, but they didn't tackle like Logan, Bradley and Rich do)

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2466/year/2009/northwestern-state-demons" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sat, Sept 5 @Houston L55-7 0-1 (0-0)

Sat, Sept 12 @Grambling State L38-17 0-2 (0-0)

Sat, Sept 19 vsNorth Dakota L27-20 0-3 (0-0)

Sat, Sept 26 @Baylor L68-13 0-4 (0-0)

Sat, Oct 10 vsCentral Arkansas L34-0 0-5 (0-1)

Sat, Oct 17 @McNeese State L51-23 0-6 (0-2)

Sat, Oct 24 vsTexas State L20-17 0-7 (0-3)

Sat, Oct 31 @Sam Houston State L34-30 0-8 (0-4)

Sat, Nov 7 vsSoutheastern Louisiana L27-0 0-9 (0-5)

Sat, Nov 14 @Nicholls State L28-21 0-10 (0-6)

Sat, Nov 21 vsStephen F. Austin L19-10 0-11 (0-7)

bball

9/5/2010, 2:31:58 PM

AF is always a difficult game, for everybody who plays them. But BYU has had more success than most. I don't see us losing to them this year either. Most of our defensive players have experience, they just haven't all been starters until this year, so I don't think AF has much advantage there.

Offensively, I think we score more than we did against UW, somewhere in the upper thirtys, I think. And I don't see AF getting out of the twentys. BYU by two or three scores.

I think our defense was a bit tentative yesterday, a lot of new guys, a bit scared about Locker's running ability, so BYU played it safe, gave up yards, but not the scores (second half). Against AF, everybody knows they're an option team, and that's how you play them. I think our secondary is good enough we won't get hurt much by the passing game, and the front 7 will shut down the option.

I don't see our offense really kicking into high gear until about mid-year. But BYU will be 2-0 a week from today.

mizzoucoug

9/5/2010, 2:35:13 PM

Where does all the worry about Air Force come from this year with Cougar fans this year? I have zero doubt that we beat those guys like we always do. The run D looks stout and our offense (especially if we can teach the receivers to catch) will put up sufficient scores. This is a no brainer.

craigoscarson

9/5/2010, 2:50:34 PM

mizzoucoug wrote:
Where does all the worry about Air Force come from this year with Cougar fans this year? I have zero doubt that we beat those guys like we always do. The run D looks stout and our offense (especially if we can teach the receivers to catch) will put up sufficient scores. This is a no brainer.

agreed; I think the question was how would this young team respond from spring til now and would this defense be good enough to handle UW and then go to AFA early in the season and deal with the option; so the fears of playing AFA early were more about the question marks going into fall camp about this team.

We answered a lot of questions yesterday and now it appears that Rembert might be out. AFA has never been blessed with depth, they really can't afford to miss him for any length. If he gets reinjured vs BYU, it'll be a long season for them.

Bronco has coached against AFA for a very long time; he'll have the guys ready.

The one thing we cannot afford are turnovers. You cannot cough up the ball to a possession team like AFA; they simply do not like to give the ball back.

Mingjai

9/5/2010, 3:14:29 PM

mizzoucoug wrote:
Where does all the worry about Air Force come from this year with Cougar fans this year? I have zero doubt that we beat those guys like we always do. The run D looks stout and our offense (especially if we can teach the receivers to catch) will put up sufficient scores. This is a no brainer.

Despite having a 24-6 series advantage over Air Force, BYU is only 6-4 against Air Force in September. Since 1995, BYU is only 1-3 against the Falcons (1-2 since 2000) in September. The last two times BYU played Air Force in Colorado Springs in September with first year starting QBs, Air Force won both times.

1995 - Air Force 38, BYU 12 (Sarkisian)

2000 - Air Force 31, BYU 23 (Engemann)

That's what makes me nervous.

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