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Sagarin's pre-season ratings

by Mars · 8/28/2010

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Mars


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, TCU, Boise State, Utah, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State all in the Top 25.



Air Force, Notre Dame, and Navy are between 44 and 50.



Washington is 65, worse than I-AA Villanova. :lol:
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Cougs_Rule
Doesnt Sagarin know UW has Super Locker and Slow Polk?

Maybe he does. :-)
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scott715
So this is a computer poll. How can it do ratings if there is no data to base it on? One of those biases of the computer models.
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Florwood
This is like eating a bowl of frosted sugar bombs, no nutritional value at all, and just gets us irrationally worked up. The odds of BYU playing that much better than UW seem slight. Wait for a few games, then see where we fit in the scheme of things.
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BlueBaron
scott715 wrote:
So this is a computer poll. How can it do ratings if there is no data to base it on? One of those biases of the computer models.


Good point. I wonder if Sagarin takes into account factors like number of returning starters, projected strength of schedule, etc. into creating his rankings.
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scott715
Then that would be a human poll. It could start with the ending numbers from the previous year but it doesn't. It appears that the BCS teams start with higher numbers which translates to higher ending numbers. One year i looked at the ACC numbers where all of their games were against cream puffs and then conference games. They even lost a couple of those early games and their rankings stay in the upper echelons.
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Schmoe
All preseason polls are crap, regardless of who makes them (computer, human, a million monkeys with a million typewriters, a spider who writes things in her web, a blind man wearing eye contacts, a vampire with glistening and shimmering skin, a red dog who's the size of a house, Kirk Herbstreit, a baboon's big pink buttocks, Mia Hamm, the 1975 Oakland A's, Mars, the lady who was bitten by Marv Albert, a mule named Sal, The Old Prospector...)
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Mars
BlueBaron wrote:
So this is a computer poll. How can it do ratings if there is no data to base it on? One of those biases of the computer models.
Good point. I wonder if Sagarin takes into account factors like number of returning starters, projected strength of schedule, etc. into creating his rankings.

I think he starts from last year's final rankings, and then uses a formula based on starters/2-deep/letterman lost and returning. By the 3rd game of the year, I think all that original formula is wiped from the system.
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Italics
dmcougar wrote:
Doesnt Sagarin know UW has Super Locker and Slow Polk?

Maybe he does. :-)


You obviously didn't read through all the rankings.



UW is ranked #65 in the country, but Polk himself is ranked at #8
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SpiffCoug
IIRC, Sagarin needs at least four games for entry into the formula, so it won't be until week five when his ratings are based solely on 2010 game stats. Until then, 2009 stats will still be factored in. Which should be good for BYU since the LV Bowl beatdown of Oregon St will be counted for a while.
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