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Just a Small Point on Starting Freshman QB's

by Italics · 8/18/2010

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Italics
In recent years, many big names schools (ex: Ohio State, USC, etc.) have been starting freshman with promising futures at the quarterback position. Some of these schools have struggled a bit more than usual because of it, and have fallen short of "elite" years - yet still managed to have good seasons.

However, it's notable that a pattern has been established - where these big names schools end up coming back the next year completely STACKED, and usually have great seasons.



This is my main reason for being a proponent of Jake Heaps starting.



I think too many of us are putting too much emphasis on the numbers in spring and fall practices. Many have made the point that it's Nelson's to lose, and that neither Qb has "seperated" themselves.

I don't think Jake needs to seperate himself.

There is no question that Jake has great potential - and great star potential which could potentially put BYU football in the national spotlight the same way Jimmer Fredette has put BYU basketball in the national spotlight.



Too many are thinking purely about the Washington game and not enough about our future. Don't get me wrong - I really want to see BYU beat Washington, and if we end up losing to them, I will most likely be depressed for quite some time - it's sad, but it's true.

But we need to keep in mind our future. Would losing a few games this season be worth it if it meant having a perfectly polished Heaps for big games in future seasons? (think Texas)



I say yes.
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Sammich
What are the stats for promising recruits who fold in early games and never quite reach their potential afterward? I know it happens in the NFL all the time, but I wonder whether it's a significant factor in College.
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snoscythe
Here's a comparison of recent Elite 11 quarterbacks who have started as true freshmen versus those that redshirt a season or who start as true sophomores after limited duty as a backup their true freshman season:



True Freshmen:

Matt Barkley (USC)2009 9-4 2,735 yards 59.9% Comp 131.32 RATING

Jacory Harris (Miami) 2008 7-6 1,195 yards 60.8% Comp 125.77 RATING

Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)2007 3-9 1,254 yards 56.3% Comp 103.85 RATING

Terrel Pryor (tOSU) 2008 10-3 1,311 yards 60.6% COMP 146.50 RATING





RS Freshmen/True Soph who played backup as freshman:

Andrew Luck (Stan 2008) 2009 8-5 2,575 yards 56.3% 143.47 RATING

Blaine Gabbert (Mizz 2008) 2009 8-5 3,593 yards 58.9% 140.45 RATING

Landry Jones (OU 2008) 2009 8-5 3,198 yards 58.1% 130.83 RATING

Ryan Mallet (Ark 2007--sat out year for xfer) 2009 8-5 3,627 yards 55.8% 152.52 RATING



You'll notice that the true freshmen have MUCH fewer total yards. Why? Because they played for teams with established running games returning seasoned tailbacks. Those are the teams that can afford to put a true freshman under center as they have the running game to pick up the slack and let them run a pretty vanilla playbook on the passing side.



BYU does not have the running game of those teams. We need production from our passing game, and true freshmen, even the wunderkids, don't give you that.



I don't see any games on the schedule that we can win with Heaps that we can't win with Lark or Nelson. Given that, I say we let the kid season and set him up for a great debut season instead of a Jimmy Clausen type season that's going to get him knocked out by a disgruntled fan as he comes out of Jamba Juice.



http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Picture-35.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">
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JamieVallen
Italics wrote:
In recent years, many big names schools (ex: Ohio State, USC, etc.) have been starting freshman with promising futures at the quarterback position. Some of these schools have struggled a bit more than usual because of it, and have fallen short of "elite" years - yet still managed to have good seasons.

However, it's notable that a pattern has been established - where these big names schools end up coming back the next year completely STACKED, and usually have great seasons.



This is my main reason for being a proponent of Jake Heaps starting.



I think too many of us are putting too much emphasis on the numbers in spring and fall practices. Many have made the point that it's Nelson's to lose, and that neither Qb has "seperated" themselves.

I don't think Jake needs to seperate himself.

There is no question that Jake has great potential - and great star potential which could potentially put BYU football in the national spotlight the same way Jimmer Fredette has put BYU

basketball in the national spotlight.



Wow i've just gotta say that I really liked thus post and I completely agree with just about everything you pointed out. Especially the part about thinking about this for the future.



Too many are thinking purely about the Washington game and not enough about our future. Don't get me wrong - I really want to see BYU beat Washington, and if we end up losing to them, I will most likely be depressed for quite some time - it's sad, but it's true.

But we need to keep in mind our future. Would losing a few games this season be worth it if it meant having a perfectly polished Heaps for big games in future seasons? (think Texas)



I say yes.


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Mars
snoscythe wrote:
Here's a comparison of recent Elite 11 quarterbacks who have started as true freshmen versus those that redshirt a season or who start as true sophomores after limited duty as a backup their true freshman season:



True Freshmen:

Matt Barkley (USC)2009 9-4 2,735 yards 59.9% Comp 131.32 RATING

Jacory Harris (Miami) 2008 7-6 1,195 yards 60.8% Comp 125.77 RATING

Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)2007 3-9 1,254 yards 56.3% Comp 103.85 RATING

Terrel Pryor (tOSU) 2008 10-3 1,311 yards 60.6% COMP 146.50 RATING





RS Freshmen/True Soph who played backup as freshman:

Andrew Luck (Stan 2008) 2009 8-5 2,575 yards 56.3% 143.47 RATING

Blaine Gabbert (Mizz 2008) 2009 8-5 3,593 yards 58.9% 140.45 RATING

Landry Jones (OU 2008) 2009 8-5 3,198 yards 58.1% 130.83 RATING

Ryan Mallet (Ark 2007--sat out year for xfer) 2009 8-5 3,627 yards 55.8% 152.52 RATING

I want to see the numbers for Barkley, Harris, Clausen, and Pryor their 2nd years, because I bet a 2nd-year starter is better on average than a blue-shirt freshmen, and those are our two options for 2011, not the two listed above.



The 2010 comparison is true freshmen starter or less talented junior starter, and I'm guessing Heaps would have a better passer rating than Nelson at the end of the year. So Heaps in 2010 and 2011 is a win/win over Nelson in 2010 and 1st-year starting Heaps in 2011. Which is where the above comparison completely breaks down for me.



I don't care about blue-shirts if the guy is the best talent on the team. Blueshirt the #2 and below guys all you want, but never, NEVER sit the more talented player to play an upperclassmen! You never know what the future (NFL, injury, even more talented recruit) may bring, so don't throw away the present.
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Cougarbib
Maybe we should follow the rule of nines since nine rhymes with whine. All of this whining amzes me. It will all sort itself out kids.



But, if we need to resolve it tonight - go with the rule of 9s. It works like this.



Or take rule of 8s. or 6s.



Heaps wears number 9. That reminds me of Jim McMahon. Maybe Heaps is the next Jim McMahon - but wth two good eyes. McMahon was legaly blind in one eye for those trivia buffs that do not know. McMahon redshited after getting some PT his sophomore season. He was not happy about it. He whined about it a lot. BYU went 11-1 iirc under Marc WIlson while McMahon whined about it. Then McMahon started his JUNIOR season and - well we all love McMahon as a football player.



Rule of 8s works differently but gets the same results. Take number 8 out of retirment, slap it on lefty Nelson and hope he reminds you of Young who, iirc, wore number 8. Young was virtually unheard of until his Junior year trying to fill the shoes of said McMahon with the 8 being symbolic that most people didn't think he had a prayer fo measuring up. He started as a JUNIOR and we all grew to love Steve Young.



Rule of 6s works differently, but gets the same results. Slap a number 6 on Lark or Munns. They might start to remind yo fo Bosco. He wroe 6 iirc. He was totally unheard of and unheralded and who would have thought he had a prayer of upsetting PItt at Pitt (Utah hopes to beat them in SLC with a more heralded and expereinced QB - Wynn). We grew to love Bosco who started as a Junior.



Someone will whine and say - well Detmer started LATE in his REDSHIRT FRESHMAN year. And Hall started as a redshirt sophomore and wait - didn't Beck start as a Junior and Doman very late in his Junior year. ANybody want to talk about any of the other greats?



If Heaps doesn't separate himself clearly - start the Junior and tell Heaps to be patient like McMahon, Young, and Bosco or at least Detmer.



But kids - we have a little more time to sort this out - maybe someone will seprate themself as the leader of this team.



Go Cougs
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Italics
snoscythe wrote:
Here's a comparison of recent Elite 11 quarterbacks who have started as true freshmen versus those that redshirt a season or who start as true sophomores after limited duty as a backup their true freshman season:



True Freshmen:

Matt Barkley (USC)2009 9-4 2,735 yards 59.9% Comp 131.32 RATING

Jacory Harris (Miami) 2008 7-6 1,195 yards 60.8% Comp 125.77 RATING

Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)2007 3-9 1,254 yards 56.3% Comp 103.85 RATING

Terrel Pryor (tOSU) 2008 10-3 1,311 yards 60.6% COMP 146.50 RATING





RS Freshmen/True Soph who played backup as freshman:

Andrew Luck (Stan 2008) 2009 8-5 2,575 yards 56.3% 143.47 RATING

Blaine Gabbert (Mizz 2008) 2009 8-5 3,593 yards 58.9% 140.45 RATING

Landry Jones (OU 2008) 2009 8-5 3,198 yards 58.1% 130.83 RATING

Ryan Mallet (Ark 2007--sat out year for xfer) 2009 8-5 3,627 yards 55.8% 152.52 RATING




Whether you realized it or not, this kind of helps prove my point.



Note that nowhere in my arguments was I saying that true freshmen perform better their first year than redshirted freshmen.



I'm making the point that the teams who started their highly anticipated freshmen are now reaping the benefits.

USC (despite recent legal setbacks), Miami, and tOSU are all projected to have great seasons - stanford and mizzou aren't even ranked in most polls. Landry only played backup because OU had the returning Heisman trophy winner. It's important to keep in mind which teams already had star incumbents at quarterback, and which ones simply had less-than-hyped juniors/seniors (like Riley Nelson). Obviously teams like OU weren't going to bench players like Bradford to give their talented freshman the starting job.



It all goes back to what I said - giving all of our young guys experience now so that we can "stacked" in upcoming seasons. The next two seasons after this will be HUGE for BYU - and our game against Texas will be a great opportunity to both make another national statement and to also impress the Big 12 - who will most likely be in the middle of making the decision of whether to expand or not. The 2011 and 2012 seasons will also be the freshest in the memories of those who will be making the decision on the MWC's AQ status.

Right now we've got TONS of young talent, and in a year or two I want them to have had all the time to build experience and chemistry that they possibly could have. We are expected to be down this year, and I fail to see how setting Heaps' progression back an entire year is going to benefit BYU in the long run.
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snoscythe
Italics wrote:
Here's a comparison of recent Elite 11 quarterbacks who have started as true freshmen versus those that redshirt a season or who start as true sophomores after limited duty as a backup their true freshman season:



True Freshmen:

Matt Barkley (USC)2009 9-4 2,735 yards 59.9% Comp 131.32 RATING

Jacory Harris (Miami) 2008 7-6 1,195 yards 60.8% Comp 125.77 RATING

Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)2007 3-9 1,254 yards 56.3% Comp 103.85 RATING

Terrel Pryor (tOSU) 2008 10-3 1,311 yards 60.6% COMP 146.50 RATING





RS Freshmen/True Soph who played backup as freshman:

Andrew Luck (Stan 2008) 2009 8-5 2,575 yards 56.3% 143.47 RATING

Blaine Gabbert (Mizz 2008) 2009 8-5 3,593 yards 58.9% 140.45 RATING

Landry Jones (OU 2008) 2009 8-5 3,198 yards 58.1% 130.83 RATING

Ryan Mallet (Ark 2007--sat out year for xfer) 2009 8-5 3,627 yards 55.8% 152.52 RATING




Whether you realized it or not, this kind of helps prove my point.



Note that nowhere in my arguments was I saying that true freshmen perform better their first year than redshirted freshmen.



I'm making the point that the teams who started their highly anticipated freshmen are now reaping the benefits.

USC (despite recent legal setbacks), Miami, and tOSU are all projected to have great seasons - stanford and mizzou aren't even ranked in most polls. Landry only played backup because OU had the returning Heisman trophy winner. It's important to keep in mind which teams already had star incumbents at quarterback, and which ones simply had less-than-hyped juniors/seniors (like Riley Nelson). Obviously teams like OU weren't going to bench players like Bradford to give their talented freshman the starting job.



It all goes back to what I said - giving all of our young guys experience now so that we can "stacked" in upcoming seasons. The next two seasons after this will be HUGE for BYU - and our game against Texas will be a great opportunity to both make another national statement and to also impress the Big 12 - who will most likely be in the middle of making the decision of whether to expand or not. The 2011 and 2012 seasons will also be the freshest in the memories of those who will be making the decision on the MWC's AQ status.

Right now we've got TONS of young talent, and in a year or two I want them to have had all the time to build experience and chemistry that they possibly could have. We are expected to be down this year, and I fail to see how setting Heaps' progression back an entire year is going to benefit BYU in the long run.


Yeah, except none of what you are referring to has anything to do with the productivity of the quarterback position. USC, Miami, Ohio St., etc. are ranked and poised to make runs, not because they started their quarterbacks as true freshmen, but because they are simply great programs that reload. On the other hand, Mizzou is trying to rebuild, Stanford is replacing Toby Gerhart and other key personnel from a middling team last season, and OU and Arkansas are projected to be right there with USC/OSU/Miami. The fact that Landry was behind a Heisman QB as a true freshman has nothing to do with the point--his numbers as a RS freshman are still valid, are they not?
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bball
McIlroy of Alabama won a national championship as a true freshman. It is also true that not a great deal was demanded of him. He made great decisions, didn't turn the ball over, and allowed the rest of the team to win the games--still, he was a true freshman.



And I have a hunch that BYU is becoming a better and better defensive team, and I think we'll be better this year than last year. We have a great Oline this year, and we have some great talent at receiver. Heaps, if he's the starter, does not need to throw for 400 yards a game to be a very successful freshman QB.



And here's another issue, if Heaps is redshirted, and Nelson starts every game this year; next year Nelson will be a Senior, are the coaches going to burn another year of Heaps' eligibility while Nelson finishes his career? I don't see this happening. So if Heaps is going to be the QB next year then I say make him the QB this year as well. Nelson can play, and he can have an impact, but I think it would be a mistake to redshirt Heaps this year or next.
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Guest
bball wrote:
McIlroy of Alabama won a national championship as a true freshman. It is also true that not a great deal was demanded of him. He made great decisions, didn't turn the ball over, and allowed the rest of the team to win the games--still, he was a true freshman.


This is the second time you've gotten this wrong and been corrected. McElroy won the BCS Championship as a Jr. Not only that, he redshirted his first year in the program.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_McElroy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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redneckjedi
bball wrote:
McIlroy of Alabama won a national championship as a true freshman. It is also true that not a great deal was demanded of him. He made great decisions, didn't turn the ball over, and allowed the rest of the team to win the games--still, he was a true freshman.



And I have a hunch that BYU is becoming a better and better defensive team, and I think we'll be better this year than last year. We have a great Oline this year, and we have some great talent at receiver. Heaps, if he's the starter, does not need to throw for 400 yards a game to be a very successful freshman QB.



And here's another issue, if Heaps is redshirted, and Nelson starts every game this year; next year Nelson will be a Senior, are the coaches going to burn another year of Heaps' eligibility while Nelson finishes his career? I don't see this happening. So if Heaps is going to be the QB next year then I say make him the QB this year as well. Nelson can play, and he can have an impact, but I think it would be a mistake to redshirt Heaps this year or next.


McElroy was NOT a true freshman. He was a redshirt junior.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_McElroy
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tmoney35
bball wrote:
McIlroy of Alabama won a national championship as a true freshman. It is also true that not a great deal was demanded of him. He made great decisions, didn't turn the ball over, and allowed the rest of the team to win the games--still, he was a true freshman.


I don't have anything to add the original statement/argument, but I have to point out that McElroy was a junior last year and that the second time this has been corrected. Also, having the heisman winning runningback and the best defense in the county doesn't hurt
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Cougarbib
Alabama uses the rule of 9s, 8s, and 6s. They started the JUNIOR who even then did not have a stellar year, had some bad games, but was on a team with a D and Running Game that could carry the load. He was a red-shirt Junior when he became the starter.



Kinda how it usually works.



Bib



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snoscythe
bball wrote:
And here's another issue, if Heaps is redshirted, and Nelson starts every game this year; next year Nelson will be a Senior, are the coaches going to burn another year of Heaps' eligibility while Nelson finishes his career? I don't see this happening. So if Heaps is going to be the QB next year then I say make him the QB this year as well. Nelson can play, and he can have an impact, but I think it would be a mistake to redshirt Heaps this year or next.


I'll take up this point: Bronco already replaced an incumbent upper-classman starter at QB with a younger player when he sat Berry and started Beck. The fear that redshirting Heaps one season means he won't have a shot at the top spot next season goes against everything Bronco is about, and it goes counter to what he has done in the past.
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