Archived Topic

2011 is going to be a great team, but...

by byutx · 8/14/2010

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byutx
2010 is going to surprise a lot of people.



(Couple quick notes: today I am feeling a little blue-goggled; also some of these thoughts are inspired by a few conversations I've had with McGregor over the last couple weeks; props to him for his insight.)



In 2007, everyone was worried about a major drop off from the 2006 team. However, a lot of talented yet unexperienced guys stepped up to make 2007 a good season. Many have pointed to this as proof that it can be done, while others have scoffed at the notion. The way I see, 2010 is different for 2 reasons. First, the unexperienced talent coming in is in most respects superior to that of 2007. Second, our schedule is much more difficult in 2010.



Overall, I expect us to be better than we were in 2007, though we may end up with a loss or two more.



Our defense will be far less vulnerable to the pass than their 2007 counterparts. If the regularly rotating guys in the front seven can just be average, we will be much better. However, I expect our DL to be BETTER than that 07 team and, by the end of the season, they will be our best DLine in years. The big question will be our inside linebackers. They need just be average and we will be better defensively in 2010 than in 2009, let alone 2007.



Our offense will be better than the 2007 O. Our TE group will be better than the 07 group (which, aside from maybe So'oto, was a great group). Our receivers are head and shoulders better than in 07, even with AC. Our OL is better and deeper than maybe any time this decade. There are obviously big questions at RB and QB. It would be hard for someone to step in and replicate Harvey's and Max's 07 performances. But, if our RB's can just be average for BYU and if Quezada or one of the other big body RB's can just properly execute, we will be sufficient. With regard to QB's, I think Heaps will be the guy. I think he'll have a Hall in 07-like season.



I think we finish 11-2 with another Vegas bowl win. We have 6 opponents that are all but guaranteed W's: @USU, SDSU, Wyo, UNLV, @ CSU, UNM. Another 2 games are likely W's: @ AFA, Nevada. (For my take on AFA, see this thread: http://cougarcorner.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4079). That brings us to the other 4 games: 2 against teams that are superior to us (@TCU, @FSU) and 2 where we will be the better team (UW, @Utah). We will beat UW in a great game and spank Utah @ RES, finally giving them the beatdown they've been due for a long, long time. The TCU and FSU games will be closer than last year's games. Mostly because neither team will dedicate multiple weeks to prepare for us and because we will be much, much faster on D and at every offensive skill position. Plus, this year FSU plays @OU the week before our showdown.



We will win our bowl game and finish 11-2. As with UCLA in 2007, our bowl will feature a Pac-10 rematch, this time against UW. Jake Heaps will become even more hated by Huskies fans having beaten his hometown team. Again.
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CougarClaw
Great analysis. I think we're looking better against FSU if only because Linette Chambers will be there and will bring enough people to be way louder than all FSU fans.



And the fact that FSU seems to be dismissing on average a player per day. Now if we can only get them to dismiss Ponder....



As for me, I still think we lose one more game and go 10-3
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craigoscarson
If we win 10 games this year I'll put Bronco in my will and remove my wife and daughter.



I don't see it. 8 wins will be fine with me while we transition to the 2010 recruiting class studs.
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byutx
craigoscarson wrote:
If we win 10 games this year I'll put Bronco in my will and remove my wife and daughter.



I don't see it. 8 wins will be fine with me while we transition to the 2010 recruiting class studs.

That transition is already taking place. And 8 wins? Really?
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wildeone
Wow craigo, you make prediction of a bad season based on the scrimmage you saw a week into fall camp....pessimistic much?

I wonder what your prediction was for 2007...



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SpiffCoug
8 wins is my minimum acceptable number. Anything fewer than eight and it's a failed season.



8 wins is a C, passing grade season.
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Cougs_Rule
byutx, wow, its ok to have blue-goggles, but you might want to update your prescription--as in, get thicker lenses.

07 TE's worse than now? Hmmm, there are no Pitta's i this group, except by HS rating.

09 defense worse than now? try thicker goggles. we are really going miss scott johnson. I dont see the amount of popping going on from our safeties. Vic is good, but we'll see. NOt enough data.

11-2? I wish. When is the last beat down BYU has given the SpUwties? We barely beat them the times that we have even the last 3 of 4.

Now, 2011? yes that will be a great team.
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craigoscarson
kitic77 wrote:
8 wins is my minimum acceptable number. Anything fewer than eight and it's a failed season.



8 wins is a C, passing grade season.




agreed; 8 wins is my watermark on acceptable - I think we'll have more struggles than people realize. I also will not at all be upset with 8. 8 to me is good enough to know that we're headed for greatness with these young kids; it means a bowl game and a winning season.



I'm not surprised that people think that's pessimistic, but it's what I expect.



Heck, rainy cloudman Jan Jorgenson said that before this week he didnt' think we'd even go to a bowl game.
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Italics
our ooc will not be the only thing tougher for us schedule wise this year. Bottom feeders such as sdsu and wyoming are going to give us a challenge unlike they've given us in past seasons. It's easy to shrug off teams liike UW, AFA, and WYO due to our performances against them in past seasons, but we need to realize the issues that can arise from inexperience. It's amazing how well our young team did in 2007, but that doesn't make it a rule that talented young players always perform surprisingly well. To be honest, I'm excited for our future with this squad, but very nervous about this season. I believe we have a good chance to beat UW, but realistically they could blow us out if our offense makes freshman mistakes and our defense can't tackle ponder
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Italics
dmcougar wrote:
byutx, wow, its ok to have blue-goggles, but you might want to update your prescription--as in, get thicker lenses.

07 TE's worse than now? Hmmm, there are no Pitta's i this group, except by HS rating.

09 defense worse than now? try thicker goggles. we are really going miss scott johnson. I dont see the amount of popping going on from our safeties. Vic is good, but we'll see. NOt enough data.

11-2? I wish. When is the last beat down BYU has given the SpUwties? We barely beat them the times that we have even the last 3 of 4.

Now, 2011? yes that will be a great team.


thank you for pointing out some of the flaws in this threads original psot. Was going to say thw same things but didn't feel like typing for that long on this tiny cell phone keyboard.
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craigoscarson
Italics wrote:
our ooc will not be the only thing tougher for us schedule wise this year. Bottom feeders such as sdsu and wyoming are going to give us a challenge unlike they've given us in past seasons. It's easy to shrug off teams liike UW, AFA, and WYO due to our performances against them in past seasons, but we need to realize the issues that can arise from inexperience. It's amazing how well our young team did in 2007, but that doesn't make it a rule that talented young players always perform surprisingly well. To be honest, I'm excited for our future with this squad, but very nervous about this season. I believe we have a good chance to beat UW, but realistically they could blow us out if our offense makes freshman mistakes and our defense can't tackle ponder


locker = uw



ponder = fsu
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Italics
craigoscarson wrote:
our ooc will not be the only thing tougher for us schedule wise this year. Bottom feeders such as sdsu and wyoming are going to give us a challenge unlike they've given us in past seasons. It's easy to shrug off teams liike UW, AFA, and WYO due to our performances against them in past seasons, but we need to realize the issues that can arise from inexperience. It's amazing how well our young team did in 2007, but that doesn't make it a rule that talented young players always perform surprisingly well. To be honest, I'm excited for our future with this squad, but very nervous about this season. I believe we have a good chance to beat UW, but realistically they could blow us out if our offense makes freshman mistakes and our defense can't tackle ponder


locker = uw



ponder = fsu


I mix their names all the time. My guess is you realize this was a typo but you'd rather ignore the points I made and try to make it look like I don't know that ponder plays for fsu, despite the fact that I watched him destroy us in provo last season. Thanks for the shallow feedback, thogu.
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Lawboy
I think this team can win 10, with a bowl win, but I see 9 as most likely. 9-4. And guess what? THat will be a great season considering how many freshman Bronco will play this year. Having 50-60 freshman and sophomores in the 3 deep is amazing.
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Mars
byutx wrote:
2010 is going to surprise a lot of people...



In 2007, everyone was worried about a major drop off from the 2006 team. However, a lot of talented yet unexperienced guys stepped up to make 2007 a good season. Many have pointed to this as proof that it can be done, while others have scoffed at the notion. The way I see, 2010 is different for 2 reasons. First, the unexperienced talent coming in is in most respects superior to that of 2007. Second, our schedule is much more difficult in 2010.



Overall, I expect us to be better than we were in 2007, though we may end up with a loss or two more.



Our defense will be far less vulnerable to the pass than their 2007 counterparts. If the regularly rotating guys in the front seven can just be average, we will be much better. However, I expect our DL to be BETTER than that 07 team and, by the end of the season, they will be our best DLine in years. The big question will be our inside linebackers. They need just be average and we will be better defensively in 2010 than in 2009, let alone 2007.



Our offense will be better than the 2007 O. Our TE group will be better than the 07 group (which, aside from maybe So'oto, was a great group). Our receivers are head and shoulders better than in 07, even with AC. Our OL is better and deeper than maybe any time this decade. There are obviously big questions at RB and QB. It would be hard for someone to step in and replicate Harvey's and Max's 07 performances. But, if our RB's can just be average for BYU and if Quezada or one of the other big body RB's can just properly execute, we will be sufficient. With regard to QB's, I think Heaps will be the guy. I think he'll have a Hall in 07-like season.



I think we finish 11-2 with another Vegas bowl win. We have 6 opponents that are all but guaranteed W's: @USU, SDSU, Wyo, UNLV, @ CSU, UNM. Another 2 games are likely W's: @ AFA, Nevada... That brings us to the other 4 games: 2 against teams that are superior to us (@TCU, @FSU) and 2 where we will be the better team (UW, @Utah). We will beat UW in a great game... The TCU and FSU games will be closer than last year's games. Mostly because neither team will dedicate multiple weeks to prepare for us and because we will be much, much faster on D and at every offensive skill position. Plus, this year FSU plays @OU the week before our showdown.



We will win our bowl game and finish 11-2...

Ditto. Agreed.
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Cougs_Rule
THe more I think about this team, the more I really think the biggest concern and question mark is the run game. If we can find or reveal one, we stand a chance at winning 8 or 9 games. BUt if all we have is pass or qb run with some dink and dunk, defenses will hone in and make life tough. All other positions will eventually come together.
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Brayden Green
I'm not banking on 11 wins, but they sure are possible. 10 wins would be awesome, because it sure is nice to be able to say the word "consecutive." I bet that it sounds good to recruits, too.
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Mars
dmcougar wrote:
THe more I think about this team, the more I really think the biggest concern and question mark is the run game.
What makes you concerned about the run game?



I feel very confident in our running game this year. JJ DiLuigi is 2nd only to McKay Jacobsen for offensive production so far in Fall camp. Even slow Kariya is running well, Hague is a morale booster (like Fui), and we all know that Quezada is fast, strong, and talented for a freshman. Zed Mendenhall and David Foote are both blocking better than I ever thought they could as well. Young guys like AJ Moore, Algernon Brown, and Ryan Folsom should be good to go by next season. Phillips will be used just about everywhere else.
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craigoscarson
Mars wrote:
THe more I think about this team, the more I really think the biggest concern and question mark is the run game.
What makes you concerned about the run game?



I feel very confident in our running game this year. JJ DiLuigi is 2nd only to McKay Jacobsen for offensive production so far in Fall camp. Even slow Kariya is running well, Hague is a morale booster (like Fui), and we all know that Quezada is fast, strong, and talented for a freshman. Zed Mendenhall and David Foote are both blocking better than I ever thought they could as well. Young guys like AJ Moore, Algernon Brown, and Ryan Folsom should be good to go by next season. Phillips will be used just about everywhere else.


are we sure that Phillips will even be with us? This NCAA thing has me a little on edge.
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byutx
dmcougar wrote:
THe more I think about this team, the more I really think the biggest concern and question mark is the run game. If we can find or reveal one, we stand a chance at winning 8 or 9 games.
So which games will be losses if we can't find a solid run game? (assuming you think we have no shot against UW, TCU, FSU and Utah)
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Mars
craigoscarson wrote:
are we sure that Phillips will even be with us? This NCAA thing has me a little on edge.

No, not yet. He still may have to sit out the entire season if the NCAA doesn't approve his HS course paperwork.
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