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Day 3 QB Battle

by SpiffCoug · 8/10/2010

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SpiffCoug
Great day for both QBs. Simply outstanding! If you combined their passing days, the BYU QBs were 14-17-1-149, 5 TDs and a rating of 241.27.



Day 3 Stats:

Heaps: 10-11-1-86, 2 TDs, 198.40 rating, 90.9%complete

Nelson: 4-6-0-63, 3 TDs, 319.87 rating, 66.7%complete.



Camp to Date Stats:

Heaps: 24-33-1-247, 4 TDs, 169.54 rating, 72.7%

Nelson: 19-31-0-251, 4 TDs, 171.88 rating, 61.3%



Day 3 passing edge: Nelson

Day 3 scoring edge: Nelson



Who I would start if BYU played tomorrow: Nelson. Having won the last two days, he would get the nod, in my book.



Heaps bounced back in a HUGE way after struggling a little yesterday. Nelson has picked up his game after an awful start on the first day. I still don't think we have any where near the data we need or what is available to the coaches, but I think it is fair to say that the deicision won't be easy and that Nelson has stepped up his play.



I think Jake has been the more consistent thrower as his ratings hasn't flucuated nearly as much. Consistency is going to be a key factor in this battle. Riley has one poor day, one good day and one great day. Jake has had one poor day and two very good days. It'll be interesting to see if Riley can keep it up.
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Metallicat
Key question though, who were they with and who were they going up against? Nelson's stats yesterday looked better until I realized he was going up against the 2's and 3's.
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Lawboy
Nelson is going to start the UW game. Heaps will play a lot, and I suspect play the better ball. By game 3, Heaps will own the job. Lark and Munns have basically zero shot at this point for varying reasons. I suspect Bronco will go with experience for game 1, but let the kid play and show what he has. By game 3, it will be clear to everyone that what he has is better than whatnNelson has.
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SpiffCoug
This is actually quite surprising. If Heaps had a day where his rating was above 300, the pro-Heaps crowd would have been coming out of the wood works praising how spectacular he is and how the race is now over and Bronco should name him the starter tonight.



Instead we get silence. I don't think Nelson should be named the starter, but I think today shows that Riley is a competitor and clearly raised his game.



I said a few days before practice that BYU coaches may not give Riley a chance to recover if he starts slowly. After three days it doesn't appear that either QB has started slowly and that we're in for one LONG battle between to quality QBs.
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SpiffCoug
Another thing to keep in mind when evaluating the QBs thus far: pad level. the first two days were just helmets. Today and tomorrow are shells (helmets and shoulder pads). It's part of the NCAA mandated acclimated process. The team can't go in full pads until the fifth or sixth session. They can't do two-a-days until like day five and I don't believe they can't go back-to-back two-a-days.



I think we'll learn a lot this weekend, when the team goes under the lights (with fans attending all three Friday/Saturday sessions) and when the team can actually hit.
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snoscythe
kitic77 wrote:
This is actually quite surprising. If Heaps had a day where his rating was above 300, the pro-Heaps crowd would have been coming out of the wood works praising how spectacular he is and how the race is now over and Bronco should name him the starter tonight.



Instead we get silence. I don't think Nelson should be named the starter, but I think today shows that Riley is a competitor and clearly raised his game.



I said a few days before practice that BYU coaches may not give Riley a chance to recover if he starts slowly. After three days it doesn't appear that either QB has started slowly and that we're in for one LONG battle between to quality QBs.


If anything, it shows just how "open-minded" most fans are. For better or worse they have already picked their horses.



It must be a cultural thing. Team Nelson, Team Heaps. Team Edward, Team Wolf-guy. Team Romney, Team Reid. etc.
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CAFB_04-12
snoscythe wrote:
This is actually quite surprising. If Heaps had a day where his rating was above 300, the pro-Heaps crowd would have been coming out of the wood works praising how spectacular he is and how the race is now over and Bronco should name him the starter tonight.



Instead we get silence. I don't think Nelson should be named the starter, but I think today shows that Riley is a competitor and clearly raised his game.



I said a few days before practice that BYU coaches may not give Riley a chance to recover if he starts slowly. After three days it doesn't appear that either QB has started slowly and that we're in for one LONG battle between to quality QBs.


If anything, it shows just how "open-minded" most fans are. For better or worse they have already picked their horses.



It must be a cultural thing. Team Nelson, Team Heaps. Team Edward, Team Wolf-guy. Team Romney, Team Reid. etc.

Don't pretend you don't know the wolf guy's real name...



:)
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bball
This is good news, we'll very likely need both QBs, but it's pretty obvious that Heaps is one heck of a passer, he seems to make perfect throws, is never off target, and impresses every writer and coach with his passing skills. If he can get his head around the rest of the game, he's our QB for now and the future.
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BYULV
CAFB_04-12 wrote:

It must be a cultural thing. Team Nelson, Team Heaps. Team Edward, Team Wolf-guy. Team Romney, Team Reid. etc.

Don't pretend you don't know the wolf guy's real name...

:)


Didn't Michael J. Fox play the wolf guy in the 80's flick Teenwolf? I did forget his name... Or were you referring to something else?



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Cougs_Rule
Kitic, I have to call a spade a spade. The other day you gave an "edge" to nelson. I challenged your conclusion and you didn't respond. You seem to have always been in Nelson's camp and in my estimation you are padding statistical analysis to match your preference, absent of contextual variables, namely going against 2nd and 3rd's.

Don't think for a moment that it doesn't matter to the coaches. They get it. The dink and doink is only going to be so good when they shut JJ down and pack things in and your guy can't deliver downfield.

With the strength of the O being the receivers and O-line and the QB battle appearing (but only appearing) mostly equal, its only a matter of time before jake gets the nod.

I have been suggesting a combo approach for first three games and then it will he mostly Jake. He is the future. And Nelson will be like Louks was. From Aggie to Wildcat. Barely a cougar.



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kiwibacon
dmcougar wrote:
Kitic, I have to call a spade a spade. The other day you gave an "edge" to nelson. I challenged your conclusion and you didn't respond. You seem to have always been in Nelson's camp and in my estimation you are padding statistical analysis to match your preference...
...not sure if you are referencing this here but if you were, he did respond...


dmcougar wrote:
Kitic, I dont get how you give the scoring edge to Nelson. Am i missing something?

I have also seen sources say Nelson had 1 passing and 1 rushing TD--be nice to get that clairifed. Even so, with 2 passing TD's and a field goal, how does 14 (Nelson) to 17 (Heaps) look like a scoring edge for Nelson?

kitic77 wrote:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogs/byusports/50072109-65/team-heaps-nelson-pass.html.csp

I stand corrected. I thought Nelson had led a TD drive that was capped by a rushing TD, by another player. In re-reading, I'm wrong.



Nelson engineered three scoring drives: 1 TD, 2 FGs. Heaps engineered three scoring drives: 2TDs, 1 FG.
Kitic is always a straight up kind of guy. No need to question his integrity when it comes to his intentions. I believe he has already stated that he is doing the best he can to provide accurate info considering different news agencies can report some stats and not others and that the public is blocked from most practices.
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Cougs_Rule
Not calling Kitic on his Integrity. Calling out that tendency to see the results we prefer by shades of preference, not right and wrong related to principles.

I really appreciate, Kitic, that you are posting stats and even day-to-day winners of the battle. And we cant possibly know exactly how the coaches are weighting or not weighting stats based on which defense they are playing against. Or that plays like yesterday's 60 yarder was a dink pass and great run by JJ, that we are summarily giving all the credit statistically to Riley.

I am guessing they are measuring also pass completions in the 10, 20, and 30+ ranges as well as efficiency on 3rd downs, which is a more important down to coaches.

Well, we have what we have: a good race among good QB's. Nelson is good. Jake is good. Nelson not likely to be great. Jake will very likely be great.

Anyway, thanks Kitic.
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Ddawg
Love the QB updates. In the Spring, I was solidly behind Riley. Partly out of respect for his time in the program, partly because I believed he would handle the pressure better - the experience factor - hard to replace.



However, this Summer Football is surprisingly even. I like the fact that we have 2 solid, competitive QB's battling it out. Actually 4 - it's just that the other 2 (Lark & Munns) aren't up to speed yet. That will come with time. This is great stuff!!
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kiwibacon
Ddawg wrote:
Love the QB updates. In the Spring, I was solidly behind Riley. Partly out of respect for his time in the program, partly because I believed he would handle the pressure better - the experience factor - hard to replace.



However, this Summer Football is surprisingly even. I like the fact that we have 2 solid, competitive QB's battling it out. Actually 4 - it's just that the other 2 (Lark & Munns) aren't up to speed yet. That will come with time. This is great stuff!!

Actually it is 5 QB's...haven't you heard? OC is throwing the pigskin too.

Picture hereNew QB contender~Chambers getting some throws in
"stepping in at QB was O'Neill Chambers (see pic to the side), and for what they needed him to do (basically, loft the ball downfield to a receiver), he looked quite good." per KSL. http://www.ksl.com/?nid=498&sid=11938800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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craigoscarson
Honestly, I think you start Riley vs UW. Let him be the goat or the hero; as the hero he staves off Heaps, as the goat he helps usher in the next wave of QB at BYU and becomes an excellent backup, change of pace.



UW will be sending the house at Heaps if he starts, so make it harder to game plan for us by annointing Nelson and using smart doses of Heaps.



It wasn't that long ago that Urban Meyer was doing the same thing with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow (but the running qb was the freshman)



I'm kind of coming around to not redshirting Heaps... if Apo is healthy enough to contribute this year, I don't want them changing up their graduation years. We stand a better chance of both of them staying for their senior years if they maintain the same eligibility.
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Mars


I'm feeling better about Nelson today. His second practice was better than his first, and his third practice was better than his second.



Nelson had 3 series today and went against the Ones at least twice.

Heaps had 3 series today and went against the Onces, Twos, and Threes once each.



More importantly, Riley had no fumbles, no INTs, no sacks, no bat-downs in practice #3, and 3 passing TDs to boot. Very good day for him. Heaps going 10/11 with 2 TDs (and a pick on the 1 yard line) ain't too bad either.





Munns has a 100% completion rate so far, and is throwing for more than 10 yards per... He also gets sacked every other play.





If I had to guess as of today, Nelson will start against Washington, and Heaps will come in after the first punt or QB turnover.
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SpiffCoug
dmcougar wrote:
Not calling Kitic on his Integrity. Calling out that tendency to see the results we prefer by shades of preference, not right and wrong related to principles.

I really appreciate, Kitic, that you are posting stats and even day-to-day winners of the battle. And we cant possibly know exactly how the coaches are weighting or not weighting stats based on which defense they are playing against. Or that plays like yesterday's 60 yarder was a dink pass and great run by JJ, that we are summarily giving all the credit statistically to Riley.

I am guessing they are measuring also pass completions in the 10, 20, and 30+ ranges as well as efficiency on 3rd downs, which is a more important down to coaches.

Well, we have what we have: a good race among good QB's. Nelson is good. Jake is good. Nelson not likely to be great. Jake will very likely be great.

Anyway, thanks Kitic.

No problem. I wish we could have more data. I'm sure coaches are tracking all kinds of things we're not. I wish we could add more data, other than the simple, uncontexted (is that a word) stats we get.



I do dismiss the notion that we have to qualify Riley's stats because JJ ran a long way. BYU will likely run similar plays with JJ in actual games and there are chances that he catches and runs a long way. I would hope every BYU would cheer the touchdown if it came in a game instead of saying, gee, I can't believe Riley is going to get all the credit when JJ did all the work.



I did find the silence by the Heaps camp a little interesting yesterday though.



One thing I'm very excited for is Friday and Saturday. I'll be going to both morning practices (have a neighborhood party Friday evening) and I'll finally have a chance to watch the QB battle up close. I think a lot of fans who are in either camp might come away with different opinions. Maybe not switching camps, but perhaps more willing to be okay with either QB.
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Mars
kitic77 wrote:
I did find the silence by the Heaps camp a little interesting yesterday though.

I'm curious who you were expecting to comment that didn't. Or is it all in your head?
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SpiffCoug
Mars wrote:
I did find the silence by the Heaps camp a little interesting yesterday though.

I'm curious who you were expecting to comment that didn't. Or is it all in your head?

No one poster in particular. Just that the Day 1 stats which were clearly in Jake's favor created multiple pages of discussion. And yesterday's stats which weren't in his favor nearly as much created next to nothing.



And yes, it probably is in my head.
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SpiffCoug
Mars wrote:


I'm feeling better about Nelson today. His second practice was better than his first, and his third practice was better than his second.



Nelson had 3 series today and went against the Ones at least twice.

Heaps had 3 series today and went against the Onces, Twos, and Threes once each.



More importantly, Riley had no fumbles, no INTs, no sacks, no bat-downs in practice #3, and 3 passing TDs to boot. Very good day for him. Heaps going 10/11 with 2 TDs (and a pick on the 1 yard line) ain't too bad either.





Munns has a 100% completion rate so far, and is throwing for more than 10 yards per... He also gets sacked every other play.





If I had to guess as of today, Nelson will start against Washington, and Heaps will come in after the first punt or QB turnover.

Good points. It's good to see Nelson playing better. I'll admit I was concerned after his awful Day 1 performance.



I think Nelson will likely start against UW and that Heaps will play as well. I don't think Riley will be pulled or yanked in favor of Jake, and I certainly don't think the leash will be as short as one punt. I think the coaches will have a set rotation. Something like Riley taking the 1st and 3rd quarters and Jake will get 2nd and 4th. Or they'll rotate every two series.
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