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Sorry, but I'm Not Confident in Nelson

by Mars · 8/10/2010

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Mars


I think if Heaps starts every game this season, BYU could do as well as 11-2.

I think if Nelson starts every game this season, BYU could do as poor as 7-6.



I don't see Riley beating Washington, Air Force, or Utah on his own. I see Jake winning those games.



~In two days of practice so far, Heaps has at least 4 series against the 1st-string D, only 1 against the 2nd-string, and none against the 3rd-string.

~In two days of practice so far, Nelson has at least 2 series against the 3rd string, 3 against the 2nd string, and only 1 against the 1st-team.



Heaps so far: 2 passing TDs, 0 interceptions, 0 fumbles, 1 time sacked.

Nelson so far: 1 passing TD, 1 interception, 2 fumbles, 6 times sacked.





This might not mean much if we didn't have Spring camp to look back on as well. Nelson wasn't even in the conversation with Heaps until he scrimmaged against the 3rd-string defense almost exclusively for the entire last week of camp, which made his poor numbers to that point look much, much better.



http://www.abc4.com/content/about_4/blogs/story/Dana-Greene-BYU-has-to-go-with-Heaps/-bRT6RwMRUyB2La9a30iZA.cspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Brayden Green
Strong, but accurate. I second the motion. Nothing against Riley.
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Italics
I've said it before. I'll say it again. There's a reason that Nelson was a losing quarterback at Utah State, and a bench warmer at BYU.

Obviously it takes talent to even get to the level that he is at, but he isn't big time - not even close. BYU needs a quarterback that at least has the POTENTIAL of doing great things, not a quarterback who has more experience at losing.
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Cougs_Rule
WOW Mars. I can accept your rationale. But your results would seem rather optimistic. 11-2 with a freshman qb? You may want to break down your games. I'm guessing a loss to TCU and either UW or FSU (cant imagine you would pick us to lose to the Yewts, just by shear fandom). Please enlighten, otherwise I might suspect your early morning post was "just a bit of undigested beef" (E. Scrooge)
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SpiffCoug
BYU won't lose to Air Force no matter who the QB is. I don't see any game that Jake can win that Riley can't.



I think we have two for sure losses: at Florida St and at TCU.



I think we have two toss-up games: vs Washington and at Utah. I think it's going to take a complete team game to win those games. If we turn the ball over in either of those games, we're toast. I think Nelson could do very well with his scrambling/running ability against Utah. I think either QB can win/lose those games depending on the supporting cast.



BYU will go 8-0 against the remainder of the schedule: Air Force, Nevada, Utah St, Colorado St, New Mexico, Wyoming, San Diego St, UNLV.
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AmmonCougar1
Mars wrote:


I think if Heaps starts every game this season, BYU could do as well as 11-2.

I think if Nelson starts every game this season, BYU could do as poor as 7-6.




I only know what I have read here and ksl.com and the occassional d-news bit (which all generally correlate well) but I can see almost the same in reverse being possible:



I think if Riley starts every game this season, BYU could do as well as 11-2 (losses at TCU and FSU)

I think if Jake starts every game this season, BYU could do as poorly as 7-5 (losses at TCU, FSU, utah, AF & SDSU)



Frankly I like that Nelson can scramble. I do think that with the speed, height and hands we have a wideout that if Jake can throw the long ball then the field is spread better and gives our RB's and even Jake, for that matter, the chance to run for big plays.



I'm anxious for Bronco to name a starter to end these seemingly endless Heaps v. Riley threads.



Go Cougs!!!



J. Child

Ammon, ID
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beauso79
Personally I don't like how Riley tends to run around so much. I mean our O-Line is awesome so why not use it.
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byutx
I am going into the season expecting to finish 11-2, with losses @ TCU and @ FSU.
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Brayden Green
11-2 would be amazing, and definitely attainable with Heaps, but not with Nelson, under our current offense scheme. I really don't get Ammon's post about us going 7-5. What are our 5 losses with Jake? (it would be 6, by the way. We play 13 games, if we win 6.) Guaranteed Riley doesn't get us to 11 as a full fledged, taking snaps starter. We plateu at 8 wins, maybe 9 with losses to UW, FSU, TCU, and maybe a CSU, or an Air Force.



I mean, it is what it is, and Riley excusers can twist the numbers any way they want to twist them, and talk about intangibles all they want, but Riley is not a BYU qb. There is no denying that. It is just not there, sorry.
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Y 4 Ever
byutx wrote:
I am going into the season expecting to finish 11-2, with losses @ TCU and @ FSU.


That's funny, because I'm going into this season like I do every other - expecting to go 13-0 and win the (m)NC! Someone needs to have their goggles inspected it seems... :crazy: :crazy:
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Y 4 Ever
BlueIsBetter wrote:
11-2 would be amazing, and definitely attainable with Heaps, but not with Nelson, under our current offense scheme. I really don't get Ammon's post about us going 7-5. What are our 5 losses with Jake? (it would be 6, by the way. We play 13 games, if we win 6.) Guaranteed Riley doesn't get us to 11 as a full fledged, taking snaps starter. We plateu at 8 wins, maybe 9 with losses to UW, FSU, TCU, and maybe a CSU, or an Air Force.



I mean, it is what it is, and Riley excusers can twist the numbers any way they want to twist them, and talk about intangibles all they want, but Riley is not a BYU qb. There is no denying that. It is just not there, sorry.


I've said since the day they announced his transfer that Riley will be a great back-up QB and change-of-pace player (can anyone say Corbin Loucks :utard: :utard: :utard: ), but that he will NEVER be the starting QB at BYU - and I stand by that statement.
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Lawboy
byutx wrote:
I am going into the season expecting to finish 11-2, with losses @ TCU and @ FSU.


I am going into the season giving the team the benefit of the doubt for every game, especially since we really do not know what to expect with this group, how injuries shake out, turnovers, etc. They could be scary good and young and win,or make youthful mistake that costs the team some games along the way. I look at this team much like I did in 2007--just do not know. But hte games that are losable are UW, AFA, FSU, TCU and Utah. The rest are home games, and we will not lose at home to a MWC team, or away to the dregs of the conference.



Nelson's best case scenario is to be as good as Doman was. Heaps is to be in the Young/McMahon/Detmer group. Doman was good, but after Staley went down, he got contained and BYU lost 2 straight and we just do not know if we have a run game like Doman had right now. If we do, then Nelson could excel with his skill set because he would not be relied on to win it with his arm. Doman had a great season with similar skills to Nelson. But Heaps is the prototypical BYU QB that we all expect to be under center.



I think Nelson will start, Heaps will play a lot, but by game 3 at FSU, it will be Heaps job.



By the way, Louks will play against us in the Nevada game. He plays safety now....
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Brayden Green
Lawboy wrote:



I think Nelson will start, Heaps will play a lot, but by game 3 at FSU, it will be Heaps job.


In this scenario, that means we are starting out 1-2. I just think you try to pick one guy as early as you can, and just go with him. It is really hard for the offense to get behind two guys. You want the offensive line to have that "mama bear" instinct, and they honestly can't do it for two guys. They need to have that face with the title qb. Everyone else needs that one person to rally around in the huddle. Think about getting motivated by Nelson, then having Heaps take a turn. It is just goofy, and I hope for the teams sake that they pick one guy soon. The coaches understand what they are doing, and they understand what it is doing to the team. So they are being careful, and that is okay, but for team chemistry they need to choose once it becomes ultra clear. I don't blame them for being thorough... this IS their job. Once all the t's are crossed and i's are dotted, I expect to see Jake under center, because Riley just doesn't have what the BYU playbook needs.
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Lawboy
BlueIsBetter wrote:



I think Nelson will start, Heaps will play a lot, but by game 3 at FSU, it will be Heaps job.


In this scenario, that means we are starting out 1-2.


You assume too much. Just because 1 guy starts, does not mean he plays the most. It is who finishes that often matters most. Especially in close games. Both guys are gonna play, and who starts really does not matter so much so long as the guy who plays gets gets the most reps in the game.
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SpiffCoug
We're not starting 1-2 with either QB. We're starting 2-1.



We're going to beat Washington with either QB. We're going to beat Air Force with either QB. We're not beating Florida St with either QB.
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jonnylingo
kitic77 wrote:
BYU won't lose to Air Force no matter who the QB is. I don't see any game that Jake can win that Riley can't.



I think we have two for sure losses: at Florida St and at TCU.



I think we have two toss-up games: vs Washington and at Utah. I think it's going to take a complete team game to win those games. If we turn the ball over in either of those games, we're toast. I think Nelson could do very well with his scrambling/running ability against Utah. I think either QB can win/lose those games depending on the supporting cast.



BYU will go 8-0 against the remainder of the schedule: Air Force, Nevada, Utah St, Colorado St, New Mexico, Wyoming, San Diego St, UNLV.


Actually kitic, just one for sure loss. You forgot that we are going to beat TCU this year. I am not so sure there is a huge difference between having nelson and heaps i this year. but i think towards the end and going into next year having heaps in will give us an upside that nelson doesn't. We can win games with nelson. heaps still has plenty to learn despite being very good already at this level.



but yes, tcu is a win. hopefully washington is a win and i suspect we beat utah this year :) so i guess mars' very optimistic prediction may be reasonable. also at some point we are going to have to drop one to one of the other mwc teams. this may be that year given our youth.
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Lawboy
Ohio State never loses to crap Big 10 teams, and we never lose to crap MWC teams. It is the culture.
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Brayden Green
Lawboy wrote:
Lawboy wrote:



I think Nelson will start, Heaps will play a lot, but by game 3 at FSU, it will be Heaps job.


In this scenario, that means we are starting out 1-2.


You assume too much. Just because 1 guy starts, does not mean he plays the most. It is who finishes that often matters most. Especially in close games. Both guys are gonna play, and who starts really does not matter so much so long as the guy who plays gets gets the most reps in the game.


It isn't to whom is starting that I am referring to. If you start Nelson and he only plays one down that is obviously not a factor. What I am saying, is that Nelson is taking the majority of the snaps - starting - with Jake rotating in, then we are losing those games, unless we have two different offensive schemes, or packages. Because Riley can't run our offense the way it sits the last 3-5 years. I don't have enough faith in the coaching staff (Anae) to provide enough alternate plays to give him a lot of snaps, unless that is their off season focus. If Nelson is the off-season focus, than maybe you go with him.
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frdbtr
BlueIsBetter wrote:
BlueIsBetter wrote:



I think Nelson will start, Heaps will play a lot, but by game 3 at FSU, it will be Heaps job.


In this scenario, that means we are starting out 1-2.


You assume too much. Just because 1 guy starts, does not mean he plays the most. It is who finishes that often matters most. Especially in close games. Both guys are gonna play, and who starts really does not matter so much so long as the guy who plays gets gets the most reps in the game.


It isn't to whom is starting that I am referring to. If you start Nelson and he only plays one down that is obviously not a factor. What I am saying, is that Nelson is taking the majority of the snaps - starting - with Jake rotating in, then we are losing those games, unless we have two different offensive schemes, or packages. Because Riley can't run our offense the way it sits the last 3-5 years. I don't have enough faith in the coaching staff (Anae) to provide enough alternate plays to give him a lot of snaps, unless that is their off season focus. If Nelson is the off-season focus, than maybe you go with him.


When you say "Nelson doesn't have what it takes to run our offense" what you are really saying is that the coaches at BYU have no idea what they are doing. If Nelson really didn't have what it takes to run BYU's offense, he would currently not be in the race to start. If Nelson wins the starting job, then the coaches (who have won more games over the last 4 years then all but a couple other college football teams) will have deemed him capable of running our offense and I will fully support their decision. If Heaps wins the job, same thing.
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Brayden Green
jonnylingo wrote:
but yes, tcu is a win.


There is no way that we beat TCU. They return way too many starters from a team that has made us eat dust the last few years. FSU is winnable if we "execute." :lol: I think we have a lot more speed on both sides, if we go with a few freshman. TCU is no contest, though. I wish it were. IF we win TCU, I think we could have a great shot at going BcS bowling, with all the talk we are getting of BYU's tough SOS.
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