MWC Moves?

Hearing that Utah is leaving, what does the conference do now? Now about a new idea, invite Navy to join just in Football. Travel is an issue but it is just football so the games revenue should pay the bills. They are a top 50 team so they will help the team average ranking. Then pick up Houston another top 50 team (close to TCU and in the Texas market). That would put us at 11 teams, then add Fresno St? They look to be the next highest ranked team. I don't have the numbers but we should be close to getting in the top 6 team average ranking.

Of the ones you mentioned, Fresno State is the one that makes the most sense. They're geograpically close enough and they (like BSU) have a history of being willing to PLAY ANYONE and have been reasonably competitive. The Navy one just has too many obstacles and Houston...just doesn't seem to bring enough to the table (IMO), but I could be wrong.

Anybody know where to find the poll numbers for the BCS? I can the top 25 but not the rest of college football. Fresno St. pulls the average down as they are in the high 50's. We need to get below 50 as a conference. Fresno St. would only allow to get to a conference championship game to increase revenue. I think Navy and Houston are in the 30's. Navy would be just football. They would have the hardest time with the travel but I think they would be interested. Our teams would make just one cross country trip.



I would hope that the MWC consults with the MTN when considering adding any teams. Navy might bring in more tv money and help us get more national attention.

Okay I ran some numbers using http://www.masseyratings.com. Here are the teams average for the last two years using the numbers before the bowls (I believe that is the BCS rules).



TCU 7.5

bsu 8.0

Utah 19.5

BYU 20.0

Air Force 47.5

UNLV 84.0

Colorado State 86.5

Wyoming 90.0

New Mexico 99.5

San Diego State 106.0

Total 56.9



Teams to consider

navy 43.0

houston 48.5

nevada 48.5

fresno 59.5



tulsa 68.0

east carolina 44.0

c michigan 45.5



The hard part is projecting what these teams will do in the next two years.Navy has the best numbers. Houston was not as good as I thought however after this year their number could be better. Nevada was better than expected and Phil Steele has them in the top 30. The last three were suprises.



San Diego St might have to excuse themselves from the MWC unless they improve the next two years. Go and get some of the USC transfers (diddo New Mexico).

It is all about scheduling OOC games. U always go 50/50 in conference by definition. The bottom dwellers need to quit rolling over on the road for BCS teams that want schedule fodder. Play home and away or home and home and ignore the criticism of your schedule - as the wins pile up - all of a sudden your bottom looks better even though they are not better. RIght now, they look worse than they are because they get suckered or bought into playing on an uneven field OOC.



Utah found the recipe for success and soon will find the recipe for failure or at best mediocrity - especially if they try to play BYU, BSU and the like for OOC after a brutal PAC schedule. They will look worse without actually being worse.



I have long thought Navy would be a good addition - they seem a notch above AFA lately, although AFA looks to be stronger this year. Houston is an up and comer. SMU was a disaster - but under June Jones they are coming back. SMU is a gamble - maybe a good one though. Nevada seems to be coming on. Football is supposed to be regional.



So if I owned the place - I would add Navy, Houston, and Fresno State or Nevada - to get to 12 and have a playoff game. When we get BCS Status - I would add Fresno State or Nevada, SMU, Hawaii, and Army, Utep, or USU and get a 16 team conference - maybe even go to 18 teams with two 9-team divisions - no quadrants.



It wouldn't all be about money - it would be about fairness, competition, rivalries, and growth opportunities. Periodically, we would get picked off - then add another one and give someone else an opportunity. If we don't get a playoff - and Notre Dame starts to find it harder to schedule BCS opponents who all want to dummy down - maybe ND can schedule several of these teams (Home and Away only)to beef up our schedule ratings and give them games to fill out their schedule with a little bit of dummy down so they could contend again. They seem to play AFA, Navy, frequently, Utah and BYU occasionally, ND Vs Army has a ring to it. Then ND could also keep playing USC, Michigan, Ohio State, etc., if those guys aren't too scared.



TV would pay for Army / Navy game, maybe even the AFA matches with Army and Navy for the Commander in Chief Trophy. Maybe ND would commit to a certain number of OOC games each year Vs conference teams. AFA, Navy, Army, and BYU have national if not international following. BSU has become a cult favorite nationally.



We still have BSU, TCU, and BYU.... That gives us a shot at a BCS Bowl yearly and maybe even a NC shot once we get AQ status. Houston might be able to pull up to that level soon.



Throw TCU, AFA, Army, Navy, Houston, SMU, CSU, NM, and Wyoming in one pile - MWC East.

Throw BYU, BSU, SDSU, FSU, UNLV, Nevada, SJSU, USU, and Hawaii in the other pile - MWC West



And let the games begin.



And, we could beat down an already beaten down Ute team on Thanksgiving Day every year if the Utes aren't playing Eastern Washington that day to survive. We will certainly get chances for a 2nd game with the Utes on occasion in the Vegas Bowl - 11-2 BYU Vs 7-6 Utah in those years when Utah has a good enough season to be bowl eligible.



Just a thought!



G

PS I got my MBA at Utah and wish them well in the PAC 12 - but I can't help but remind Utah as I would remind us - be careful what you wish for.

Let's face it -- there are no non-AQ schools that can add BCS numbers to the MWC to equal what we're losing with Utah leaving. The MWC is dead in the water unless AFA, UNLV, New Mexico, SDSU, and Wyo can figure out how to win football games.

the pac 10 is hardly a "brutal" schedule. the Pac 10 sucks.

CAFB_04-12 wrote:
Let's face it -- there are no non-AQ schools that can add BCS numbers to the MWC to equal what we're losing with Utah leaving. The MWC is dead in the water unless AFA, UNLV, New Mexico, SDSU, and Wyo can figure out how to win football games.

I disagree with this. 2010 will be a HUGE season for the MWC is this regard. IF BSU runs the table, they are starting out high enough that they will definitely get a BCS birth, and they could have a shot at the NC game. Same goes for TCU. If they run it, guaranteed BCS berth and outside shot at NC game. Basically we need both of these things to happen in 2010. If so, our top gets stronger and the political pressure to include the MWC also increases. Add to it that a 5th BCS bowl game will be added soon--the Cotton Bowl and the new Cowboys Stadium venue--and I think it is virtually a lock. It is going t happen in 2012 because changes will happen to allow it. Utah to PAc-10, TCU, BYU and BSU in 1 conference and a 5th BCS bowl, allowing 12 places in BCS games. Those factors will equal BCS bid for the MWC.



Of course, if BYU heads off to the Big 12 soon, all bets are off. But the BCS will still have things in place because TCU and BSU will be grouped together.

Well, we could invite Notre Dame...they aren't affiliated and it might be the best shot ND has of getting BCS status....ha ha just kidding And then thinking about it more, adding ND probably would not help us get AQ status....at least the way they have been playing ;)

I don't understand why some are still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite. Where are people getting this vibe from? Is the Big 12 commish trolling this board? Didn't think so.

CAFB_04-12 wrote:
I don't understand why some are still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite. Where are people getting this vibe from? Is the Big 12 commish trolling this board? Didn't think so.

Well, the PAC10 just went to 12, the Big 10 just went to 12, and both plan on having a conference title games. Both were the holdouts over the concept and finally moved to it. Now the Big 12 has 10 and you think they are going to stand pat? Many assume the NCAA will allow them to have the game with just 10, but why when the other conferences moved to 12 to get there?



Answer me this, did you see Utah to the PAC10 3 months ago? I didn't, no one did, but it will happen today. Point being, just because Beebe is not laying his cards on the table and showing everyone his hand right now does not mean nothing happens. The Big 12 needs 2 more teams. BYU gives them a market bigger than what Kansas and K-State offer, bigger than what Ok State offers, bigger than what TTech offers and Baylor as well. BYU can increase the TV footprint, increase TV viewing, extend the conference further west, and even into Cali with the BYU fanbase there. That helps TV exposure, recruiting and $$$. BYU would carry its weight in the BIG 12 and bring other benefits. And ESPN likes BYU, tries to get them on the network and they were a huge power broker in keeping the Big 12 alive. They are drafting up a TV deal now, and I think they just might put pressure on the Big 12 to add BYU because they offer ESPN a team in SoCal and Arizona that gets viewers and as of now, ESPN has about zero foothold in the west. Not saying it does happen, but the possibility is there because it makes financial sense.

The biggest plus we could get next year is for the conference to beat up on Utah, raising everyones rpi. 0-8 in conference would be awesome.

CAFB_04-12 wrote:
I don't understand why some are still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite. Where are people getting this vibe from? Is the Big 12 commish trolling this board? Didn't think so.

I had a dream about this last night, my fellow Cougar fans and I followed an iron rod to a glowing white tree, with delicious fruit on it that said "B12". Next to the iron rod was a roiling, filthy river with a bunch of guys in it typing on keyboards. And beyond them was a big building in the air with a drum and feather on it, and the people inside were laughing at us.



I asked for an interpretation, and was told that the iron rod was faith in the future, the fruit of the tree was an invite to the Big 12 and represented the love of money, the filthy river was the blogosphere, and the floating building was--well, you know.



So anyway, I believe in prophetic dreams so that's why I am still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite.

I think it is imperative that we get the AQ bid in 2012 otherwise we may never get one. The way to do it is to add Navy for football only, add Houston and Nevada. Those adds should get us close to criteria 2 qualification. If it does not then one of the lowest ranked team needs to draw straws and voluntarily leave the conference (only for a year) to get our average down low enough. That team can then be added back later to get to 12. This needs to be agreed to now and give the lowest ranked teams time to put out effort the next two years to not be at the bottom.



Once you get the AQ for two years there will be an expectation that we will secure it permanently and the extra money will allow the schools to upgrade their programs and recruiting to maintain it.



Another side of this is that the Mtn will be consulted before teams are invited to make sure the revenue will match the additions. Navy should be revenue positive. Nevada and Houston could be negative. The champioship game should be a winner tv wise. I know the fear exists of the WAC-16 experience but these are much better teams, there will be only 2 divisions, the growth was managed this time and there is national interest where before there was not.



Also on the basketball side this is a winner too. If you wish add Gonzaga for basketball only to get to twelve teams and as a travel partner with BSU.



I really think this is the strategy that we need to take or watch that window of opportunity to close. Maybe only pieces will work but the pieces are there to achieve the goal otherwise we could be left in the dust.

I ran the numbers with Utah leaving and BSU joining. If you add Nevada, Houston and Navy our average ranking does NOT make the top 6. If you drop the lowest two teams after that, then we make it. The bottom half need to really pick it up the next two years and get some upsets against Utah to get us in position to make the BCS. Maybe trading a couple of teams with the WAC would do it. We could also hope that the Pac craters the next two years. Their two adds hurt their ranking due to Colorado.

Lawboy wrote:

I don't understand why some are still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite. Where are people getting this vibe from? Is the Big 12 commish trolling this board? Didn't think so.

Well, the PAC10 just went to 12, the Big 10 just went to 12, and both plan on having a conference title games. Both were the holdouts over the concept and finally moved to it. Now the Big 12 has 10 and you think they are going to stand pat? Many assume the NCAA will allow them to have the game with just 10, but why when the other conferences moved to 12 to get there?



Answer me this, did you see Utah to the PAC10 3 months ago? I didn't, no one did, but it will happen today. Point being, just because Beebe is not laying his cards on the table and showing everyone his hand right now does not mean nothing happens. The Big 12 needs 2 more teams. BYU gives them a market bigger than what Kansas and K-State offer, bigger than what Ok State offers, bigger than what TTech offers and Baylor as well. BYU can increase the TV footprint, increase TV viewing, extend the conference further west, and even into Cali with the BYU fanbase there. That helps TV exposure, recruiting and $$$. BYU would carry its weight in the BIG 12 and bring other benefits. And ESPN likes BYU, tries to get them on the network and they were a huge power broker in keeping the Big 12 alive. They are drafting up a TV deal now, and I think they just might put pressure on the Big 12 to add BYU because they offer ESPN a team in SoCal and Arizona that gets viewers and as of now, ESPN has about zero foothold in the west. Not saying it does happen, but the possibility is there because it makes financial sense.

Yeah, I guess I'm just taking the Big-12 commish at his word. You know, that the Big-12 isn't looking to expand. At least that's what all the reporters are saying that he's saying.



3 months ago I wouldn't have thought Utah would be in the Pac-10, no. In fact, the day that the MWC added BSU I figured we were safe. But the day Texas decided to stay in the Big-12 I knew that Utah would be in the Pac-10 and that BYU would not be in the Big-12.



There is not a team on God's green non-AQ earth that the MWC can add that can bring numbers like Utah's. The bottom dwellers in the MWC are the handicap.



Look, I'm just saying that every time -- every single time -- there is a conference realignment BYU is left on its own with a bunch of mediocre teams surrounding it. You're saying it will be different this time. You're saying that BYU not getting into or winning a BCS game since its inception is somehow overlooked for our tradition and our 25 year old national championship. Somehow all the TV sets in the greater Provo/Orem area will persuade them.



I'm normally the one to look on the bright side. But this has no bright side. We're a borderline AQ conference with Utah's numbers. We're the same bunch of have-nots without them. Unless BYU, TCU, and BSU finish in the top 10 this year.

Unless the BCS changes - BYU, TCU, and BSU have a far better chance each year to make it to a BCS bowl than Utah will have in the PAC 12. Neither any MWC team nor Utah have much of a prayer of ever playing for the NC. SInce 4 16-team superconference scenario no longer seems imminent - BCS may stay about the same for now. SO, insead of whining about the crappy competition in our league - why don't we just go undefeated a couple of times in 5 years and then whine like heck if we don't get in a BCS bowl. If BSU goes undefeated back-to-back this year - they may just get to play for the NC - no matter how bad the bottom of the WAC isperceived.



Bib

I will be watching the BSU-VT opener. I think the BCS needs to add a rule where if a team wins the so called NC game that their conferences gets AQ.

Florwood wrote:

I don't understand why some are still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite. Where are people getting this vibe from? Is the Big 12 commish trolling this board? Didn't think so.

I had a dream about this last night, my fellow Cougar fans and I followed an iron rod to a glowing white tree, with delicious fruit on it that said "B12". Next to the iron rod was a roiling, filthy river with a bunch of guys in it typing on keyboards. And beyond them was a big building in the air with a drum and feather on it, and the people inside were laughing at us.



I asked for an interpretation, and was told that the iron rod was faith in the future, the fruit of the tree was an invite to the Big 12 and represented the love of money, the filthy river was the blogosphere, and the floating building was--well, you know.



So anyway, I believe in prophetic dreams so that's why I am still putting hope in some ethereal Big 12 invite.

No frickin' way! I had one too!



I was wondering through a God-forbidden desert. Just checking out the sand to see if its still sandy. It was... Grain like.



I noticed something in the far off distance. I got closer and it appeared to be an Ark. My first thought was... Where's the water. Then I noticed I wasn't the only one. Many others were laughing and pointing up on top of it. I looked up and there were ten men. All sporting the "Noah Beard" BUT each of them were wearing T-shirts with a different Big XII school on it.



One was wearing a Texas shirt. We'll call him Texas. He leans over... Staring at me directly into the eyes and said, "everyone(conference) will perish, so you BYU(I was wearing a BYU shirt) come on board so you will survive with the rest of us!".



I jumped at the chance. Once I got up there... They all welcomed me into their fold.



Off in the distance I noticed a tiny row boat with 12 other guys with wedding rings. I pointed over and asked what are they doing. Oklahoma said, "they call themselves the PAC. They all just got married and climbed down from their tree they were hugging".



I asked why they were fighting to get on the row boat. Kansas said, "Utah just married them and told them to build a boat too, because a great flood was coming."



THEN... A rumble came as the ground shook... We all looked to the East and a huge wall of water rushes towards us.



I looked back at our brethren on the row boat AND all of the PAC ran fearing for their lives... Leaving Utah in the dust not k owing what to do, but hold tight onto the row boat.



To be continued...



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