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Why the Big XII-10 aren't expanding

by Mars · 6/16/2010

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M
Mars


Why wouldn't the 10 remaining Big XII schools look to expand back to 12 schools?



-Well, for one, the coaches don't like playing a football championship game.

-For another, they feel they could get the rule changed so they could host a championship with only 10 schools.

-They don't want to add any schools in Texas, and they don't see any home-runs outside of their current states.

-They don't want to increase travel costs again now that they've become more regional.

-They like the idea of playing everyone in both football and basketball (twice).

-They consider themselves among the very densest elite basketball conferences now.

-There aren't a lot of candidates (AAU, "very high research") out there to expand their academic image.



-But, lastly, and most important, you have to understand that Texas & Pals have somehow stumbled into a huge increase in their TV revenue, and they have signed on to this deal for a very long time. They are afraid to ever have to re-negotiate the ridiculous amount they will luckily be overpaid, and they are completely sure that adding 2 teams will only shrink the pie, not increase it.



Let me explain this article: http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/140047



The Big XII's old TV deal with ESPN was $60MM a year, including the North-South Championship game. Their new deal with ESPN, with only 10 schools, minus the championship game is... $60MM/year. So each school will make an extra million there. ESPN was happy to do this, if that was the cost of keeping a PAC-10/Big XII TV Network, Big Ten-style, out of the market. Serious competition is NOT what the 4-letter wants more of. This deal lasts through 2016.



That isn't really a big deal though. This is: BEFORE the defections, the Big XII was making $19.5MM a year from Fox. AFTER the defections, they look to be making... drum roll please... $140MM/year. Yes, 7x or 600% more. Over $12MM more per year per school on average. That's absolutely crazy. The catch? Texas and the 9 dwarves were required to sign on to the agreement for a mere 18 years! Yes, that's a lot of money, but MAN that's a long time!





BYU/Air Force to the Big XII-10? I can see it happening... in 2030.
F
Florwood
Mars wrote:
BYU/Air Force to the Big XII-10? I can see it happening... in 2030.


Are season tickets for 2030 on sale yet?
L
Lawboy
BYU still has the ability to go in, say they take a smaller portion the first several years, and then use the BYU-TV Network to make even more $$$ on games of its own. The Big 12 allows this. I mean, $8M year from the Big 12 is better than $1.25 from the MWC, plus those added TV monies from BYU-TV. And more bowl money, NCAA hoops $$, etc. I think BYU needs to take less upfront, show the value, then leverage that in the future.
M
Mingjai
On the other hand, if Kansas and Missouri really are getting the shaft, I can see either of them defecting if the Big Ten/Pac 10 ever come knocking, which I suspect they eventually will under their current management. From a management perspective, I still think the Big 12 is being too passive compared to the Big Ten/Pac 10. If they were really active, they'd consider inviting Arizona and Arizona State and maybe also Utah and BYU to improve their competitive position vis-a-vis the Pac 10 while at the same time improving the sports profile of the conference.
S
stuckinbig10country
BYUTV doesn't make money. The church basically gives the feed away to satellite and whatever cable systems want it. There is no money to be made by BYU sports on BYU TV.



BYU (with AF) needs to go to the Big 12 and basically say they will take $5 mil a year from the TV deal and whatever they get from post season play for the first 5 years. If that doesn't work, move it to the first 6 years, etc until they agree. BYU needs to point out that they are the real big dog in the 31st market in the country and that they have a large following in CA and AZ and all around the west.



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L
Lawboy
Again, you are wrong. BYU does not have to give it away. It just chooses to do programming where they do not advertise. That does not mean that they can't try. BYU sports, and especially football, are getting bigger and bigger. LDS fans love a winner, and will tune in. IF BYU is on, advertisers will flock to try to capture the LDS market for their products. The opportunity is there to make some money with BYU-TV. And with BYU building a whole new complex for its TV Broadcast center, I can see some motivation there to try to. Why invest so much otherwise?
M
Mars
Lawboy wrote:
Again, you are wrong. BYU does not have to give it away. It just chooses to do programming where they do not advertise.

The Big Ten network asks for $.70 per subscriber, I believe. What does BYU-TV ask for, $0.01?
L
Lawboy
Mars wrote:
Again, you are wrong. BYU does not have to give it away. It just chooses to do programming where they do not advertise.

The Big Ten network asks for $.70 per subscriber, I believe. What does BYU-TV ask for, $0.01?


They ask for $0. But they also do not sell advertising space, and that is a new area that could be exploited to bring in revenues for the station and university. I do not see BYU-TV ever costing because the Church uses it for its programming as well, and wants it available. But I think they would have zero problem with selling ad space for BYU Athletics, either.
L
Lawboy
Sounds as if the 5 schools that might have got dumped in the Big 12 were the ones to put the deal together to keep Texas happy. And they all admitted that they need Texas to survive, so are willing to give them more $$ in order to get more for their own schools. It is a good read. And sounds like they all know what it takes to keep the Big 12 together--them letting Texas have their way.



http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5294434
S
scott715
K-BYU is a non-profit. A new entity could be created to try to generate this money if it could get the rights to the games.
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8
88Coug
The "new" Big 12 TV deal with Fox does not exist. It is just a proposal. Given that the best games (featuring OU or UT) will be on ABC/ESPN, Fox gets the crap. And so much of the crap is Baylor v. Iowa State and Tech v. Kansas State, none of which is of any value to anyone anywhere.



Again, there is no new deal, not yet anyway, and it is not going to happen like has been advertised, especially given the poor quality of games which Fox will have to pick from.
M
Mars
scott715 wrote:
Rumor that Arkansas to the big12, Jerry Jones is behind it, as a former Rasorback and for the championship game in his house.

Yeah, the crazy old man wants Arkansas and Notre Dame. Arkansas came out publically later that day and said thanks but no thanks.



I hope Mr. Moneybags doesn't forget the money that BYU-OU brought to his house!
C
CougarClaw
scott715 wrote:
Here are some interesting posts about behind the scenes. Must read. There might be hope.



http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/message.html?id=5252777

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/message.html?id=5456157



http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/message.html?id=5606831


Dare I hope???



The dude's points make sense, except for the recent Texas and Big 12/10 declarations that they're not interested in additional expansion. Of course, if I were them, I'd wait a month or more until the furor dies down and people calm down before tossing another pebble in the pond.



AND, you wait until the Utah, Pac-10 merger is over and claim the spotlight all to yourself. It's not like the MWC has made itself difficult to raid.



I think he sounds genuine enough, even for a first time poster, but it could just be a FRute farce.



So I ask again? Dare I hope?
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W
wildeone
OHHH I SO WANT TO HOPE, THAT WOULD BE AMAZING...I'm with you...Dare I hope????
L
Lawboy
Well, August does sound likely since BYU would need to give notice by September 1 if they are leaving for the Big 12 in 2011. And the Big 12 will need 1 team for 2011 to replace Nebraska. I really think the Big 12 wants BYU, and the real issue is who else to add? BYU would offer value to that conference in terms of market, name recognition and branding and competitiveness. The sticking point is who should be team #2 to add in 2012 when Colorado leaves, and that is where it gets dicey. Arkansas would have been great, but that will not happen, even though Jerry Jones really wants it. SEC offers more all the way around. I am hearing Memphis might be an option, if they can secure a lucrative Fed EX deal with the Big 12 to go along with them. I know AFA was thrown out there, but I still see them as a long shot. BYU and Arkansas is best case, but BYU and Memphis might be most likely.
M
Mingjai
We all like to hope, but I actually think Cincinnati would be a likely choice over Memphis. Cincinnati is a large state school in Ohio that already plays great football. The Big 12 might like to expand in Ohio as part of its conference footprint.
L
Lawboy
I have a guy in my ward who works for the BYU AD, and I guarantee that I will be pumping him for info at church Sunday. He is in compliance, but I am sure he has had to have heard some stuff.
J
jonnylingo
Mars wrote:


Why wouldn't the 10 remaining Big XII schools look to expand back to 12 schools?



-Well, for one, the coaches don't like playing a football championship game.

-For another, they feel they could get the rule changed so they could host a championship with only 10 schools.

-They don't want to add any schools in Texas, and they don't see any home-runs outside of their current states.

-They don't want to increase travel costs again now that they've become more regional.

-They like the idea of playing everyone in both football and basketball (twice).

-They consider themselves among the very densest elite basketball conferences now.

-There aren't a lot of candidates (AAU, "very high research") out there to expand their academic image.



-But, lastly, and most important, you have to understand that Texas & Pals have somehow stumbled into a huge increase in their TV revenue, and they have signed on to this deal for a very long time. They are afraid to ever have to re-negotiate the ridiculous amount they will luckily be overpaid, and they are completely sure that adding 2 teams will only shrink the pie, not increase it.



Let me explain this article: http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/140047



The Big XII's old TV deal with ESPN was $60MM a year, including the North-South Championship game. Their new deal with ESPN, with only 10 schools, minus the championship game is... $60MM/year. So each school will make an extra million there. ESPN was happy to do this, if that was the cost of keeping a PAC-10/Big XII TV Network, Big Ten-style, out of the market. Serious competition is NOT what the 4-letter wants more of. This deal lasts through 2016.



That isn't really a big deal though. This is: BEFORE the defections, the Big XII was making $19.5MM a year from Fox. AFTER the defections, they look to be making... drum roll please... $140MM/year. Yes, 7x or 600% more. Over $12MM more per year per school on average. That's absolutely crazy. The catch? Texas and the 9 dwarves were required to sign on to the agreement for a mere 18 years! Yes, that's a lot of money, but MAN that's a long time!





BYU/Air Force to the Big XII-10? I can see it happening... in 2030.


I disagree with this post because if espn is willling to give that kind of money for no championship game and minus nebraska and colorado then they surely would be willing to give more with the likes or arkansas (just as good as nebraska or better tv sets and travel wise) and byu (an upgrade from cu most likey money wise as well even if slc market is smaller we carry it along with people from all over the country) with a championship game.



so i think that if arkansas is serious about coming despite what they are saying publicly that there is a good shot that byu ends up getting in invite if they expand to 12 and notre dame isn't willing to jump on board (a HUGE long shot in my opinion).
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