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Another Look at the BCS AQ Formula

by Mars · 6/9/2010

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M
Mars


We are 2 Years (2008 and 2009) into the 4 Year Period to Gain Auto-Qualifying Status for 2012 and 2013-

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/04/23/bcs-aq/index.html



ONE: Top Ranked Team

1. Big XII - 1.5

1. SEC - 1.5

3. MWC - 5

4. PAC-10 - 6

5. WAC - 7.5

5. Big east - 7.5

7. Big Ten - 9

8. ACC - 11.5



TWO: Overall Conference Strength

1. SEC - 38.63

2. ACC- 40.34

3. Big east - 42.69

4. Big XII - 46.38

5. PAC-10 - 49.85

6. Big Ten - 50.91

7. MWC - 58.61

8. WAC - 72.28



THREE: Top 25 Teams Scoring

1. SEC - 22 (100% of 22)

2. Big Ten - 20.25 (92%)

3. MWC - 20 (90.9%)

3. Big XII- 20 (90.9%)

5. PAC-10 - 15.75 (71.6%)

6. Big east - 15 (68.2%)

7. ACC - 12 (54.5%)

8. WAC - 8.75 (39.8%)



To gain auto-qualifying status into the BCS, you need to be Top 6 in all 3 categories. The MWC is 3rd, 7th, and 3rd, and thus doesn't reach that. But a conference can petition the BCS to be included if they are Top 5 in two categories and Top 7 in the 3rd. The MWC is in that range right now. Adding Boise State helps the MWC in all 3 categories, but does still not bump them out of needing to petition, at this point with half the numbers in. Adding them or not is a gamble either way, as they have to join the MWC by July 2nd, 2010 for their numbers to count, but it won't be known at that time what any schools numbers will look like in 2010 or 2011.



Interestingly, both the Big Ten and the ACC are doing much worse than the Mountain West: The Big Ten is 7th/6th/2nd, while the ACC is 8th/2nd/7th. If neither were AQ today, they would not even be in range to petition the BCS for possible inclusion. Of course, in a two-faced manner, these qualifying criteria are designed so that they can only hurt non-BCS conferences, not the current auto-bids.



What if the Big XII folds as a conference? All of a sudden, the MWC is 2nd/6th/3rd in these rankings, and they are firmly and fully on track to automatically qualify as a conference, with or without Boise State! And the WAC (which would be 4th/7th/7th) isn't passing the MWC up anytime soon.



Of course, the MWC would also have the option of signing a contract to send their #1 football team to the BCS Fiesta Bowl every year, which would also automatically give the MWC auto-qualifying status.
C
CannonCougar85
So if I am reading this correctly there are 2 BCS conferences that, as of right now, do not qualify to be BCS conferences?



But the BCS "club" is set up so that once you are a member you are a member for life, right?



Meaning the BIG 10 and ACC don't have to worry about being kicked out even though they don't qualify?



Am I right on all that?
M
Mars
CannonCougar85 wrote:
So if I am reading this correctly there are 2 BCS conferences that, as of right now, do not qualify to be BCS conferences? But the BCS "club" is set up so that once you are a member you are a member for life, right? Meaning the BIG 10 and ACC don't have to worry about being kicked out even though they don't qualify? Am I right on all that?
Yes. Doubly so because both the Big Ten and the ACC have tie-ins with BCS bowls (Rose and Orange).



If any BCS conference has to fear (aside from the Big XII, for expansion reasons), it's the Big east, because they are not tied in to a BCS bowl and thus lack that extra level of protection.
C
CrimsonCoug
Mars wrote:




Of course, the MWC would also have the option of signing a contract to send their #1 football team to the BCS Fiesta Bowl every year, which would also automatically give the MWC auto-qualifying status.


Is that assuming that the MWC picks the presumably defunct BigXII's Fiesta Bowl contract?



Also, it doesn't change anything, but the BigXII getting scratched doesn't mean their teams do. The PAC will get a boost, so the MWC will likely then be ranked 3,6,4 rather than 2,6,3. But again, that doesn't matter as long as the rules don't change with the conferences going nuclear--the MWC still gets in. Without needing BSU. But I find it really unlikely that the BCS bylaws don't get changed at all with the conference blowups.
J
jonnylingo
I worry about this all being irrelevant if we end having four 'superconferences'.



So what if he expand to include kansas and kanas state or any of the other big 12 leftovers? I woudl imagine this would bring our all around conference up as well.
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M
Mars


Anyone willing to crunch the numbers on how the PAC-10 + Colorado compares to the MWC + Boise State?
C
CrimsonCoug
Just eyeballing it, the MWC just improved and the PAC doesn't change (course maybe we should ask Mike Belotti if Colorado is a "middle-of-road PAC-10 team" ;) ). But only in category 1 are the two ranked next to each other, and in that the MWC is and remains ahead. The PAC is ahead of the MWC only in criterion 2, and that's by two spots and 10 percentage points--too much for BSU's addition to overcome.



Bottom line: no change (at least for the PAC relative to the MWC).
S
snoscythe
If the Big XII folds and you end up with a PAC-16 and a Big Sixteen, the BCS contract is going to get renegotiated, and you can bet it won't be favorable to the MWC.
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