Biggest Surprise from Saturday

Most people might mention Frazier or Quesada as surprise performances from Saturday, but how about Mitch Payne hitting a 46 yard field goal! Maybe we will have some decent kicking this year from beyond 30 yards...

It was 48-even more impressive!

Personally, I think we should go for it more often on 4th down. If I'm across the 50 and it's 4th & 4 or fewer, I'd go for it.

kitic77 wrote:
Personally, I think we should go for it more often on 4th down. If I'm across the 50 and it's 4th & 4 or fewer, I'd go for it.

Glad you're not the coach...maybe at the 37 or so, but no way just past midfield. Gotta play the odds and play field position. Especially when you have a D that can make plays.

craigoscarson wrote:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574435604130260662.html

Less than 1 pt net from the 50? Not sure worth it in 1 game. May average out over a season, not in a game. From the 40 and in makes more sense statistically.

Lawboy wrote:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574435604130260662.html

Less than 1 pt net from the 50? Not sure worth it in 1 game. May average out over a season, not in a game. From the 40 and in makes more sense statistically.

Great Article CraigO, I'd be interested in knowing how they did their analysis. Assuming it was done correctly though, the only time you wouldn't go for it is when they show a negative "net points gained by going for it". This metric apparently accounts for the change in probability of the opposing team scoring off of a failed 4th down compared to the probability that they will score anyway after you punt. Even if it's only 1 point from the 50, the fact that you expect that the expected gain is still positive means you'd still go for it (conversely you'd be deciding to give up a point by punting).

Does not take into account the score and the opponent. On average you could score more points and still lose more games.

(sigh) I just miss the days when we'd go for it on 4th and 3 from our own 32. And pass it on 3rd and 2 deep in our own territory late in a game we were leading by 2 because "we'd rather win by 9 than 2".



And on 4th and 1 at Wyoming, when the entire D is up on the line for short-yardage, throw a clear-across-the-field hitch route (which is SHOCKINGLY picked off and returned for a TD by a slower-than-turd LB).



THOSE were the days (sigh)