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Kstate-BYU?

by BroncoBot · 3/19/2010

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BroncoBot
I looked through their schedule and it seems like they had a good year. BUT, I don't know Big XII basketball well enough to get the whole story. They lost to Missouri, Iowa st. (ouch), Kansas 2X, OSU (at home), and other than that rolled through the schedule. One interesting note, KSU did NOT shoot the 3 well in their losses. Probably around 25 percent in those losses, but it seems everyone shoots well against BYU. Does anyone know how good this team really is? They looked good against North Texas and their starters averaged around 24-25 minutes if my estimation is close. They are going to be rested and hungryto get on the court again I'm sure.



BYU on the other hand has got to be dead after their double overtime. I don't think this is an impossible game for BYU but they will need some good guard play (a couple times KSU gave up big numbers to guards) and hopefully everyone will shoot their FTs well as KSU puts people at the line a LOT in their losses.



Should be a fun game, I feel a lot more confident after looking over their season and their losses :D .
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cougarsunited
In the course of a season just about every team has one or two bad losses. K-State is a stellar basketball team has a lot of its strenghts where we are weak. This is going to be BY FAR the toughest team we've played all year. I'd almost prefer playing Syracuse over them, simply because of the uneven match-up....
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beauso79
Our guards are going to HAVE to help fight for every rebound against these guys. I personally think Rose should start Abouo in this one just so we can have his presence down low. Our interior is going to suck big time against these guys
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BroncoBot
cougarsunited wrote:
In the course of a season just about every team has one or two bad losses. K-State is a stellar basketball team has a lot of its strenghts where we are weak. This is going to be BY FAR the toughest team we've played all year. I'd almost prefer playing Syracuse over them, simply because of the uneven match-up....

I realize they are good. But so was Georgetown (supposedly). What I really want to know is what makes these guys real, and not pretenders like the Big East flukes we saw fall yesterday. What are these "strengths" that you speak of where BYU is weak? What does K-state do so well that should have Coach Rose and myself worried?
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timmyboy
declocoug wrote:
I looked through their schedule and it seems like they had a good year. BUT, I don't know Big XII basketball well enough to get the whole story. They lost to Missouri, Iowa st. (ouch), Kansas 2X, OSU (at home), and other than that rolled through the schedule. One interesting note, KSU did NOT shoot the 3 well in their losses. Probably around 25 percent in those losses, but it seems everyone shoots well against BYU. Does anyone know how good this team really is? They looked good against North Texas and their starters averaged around 24-25 minutes if my estimation is close. They are going to be rested and hungryto get on the court again I'm sure.



BYU on the other hand has got to be dead after their double overtime. I don't think this is an impossible game for BYU but they will need some good guard play (a couple times KSU gave up big numbers to guards) and hopefully everyone will shoot their FTs well as KSU puts people at the line a LOT in their losses.



Should be a fun game, I feel a lot more confident after looking over their season and their losses :D .


Kansas State actually lost three times to Kansas (by 2 at home in OT, by 17 at Kansas, and by 8 in the conference tournament).



Kansas State got a lot of street cred early in the season by starting out 15-2 and then being the first team to beat Texas, who was number 1 at the time. Well, we all say yesterday how awful Texas turned out to be.



However, Kansas State did beat Xavier (home), UNLV (road), A&M (home), Baylor (road & tourney) and Missouri (home). That's not a bad resume.



Frankly, I don't think they are an unbeatable force. That loss to Iowa State at home is simply inexcusable. Kansas State's top scorers (Pullen and Clemente) are extremely inconsistent players. Pullen is going to be very sore tomorrow after getting banged up yesterday. Neither of them can guard Fredette and will tire trying to do so. I really see an upset in the making. BYU just has to hope that the MacNamara / Boynton game doesn't happen to either of those two guards. They'll be in it if those players just have their "regular" games.
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Lawboy
For BYU to win, they need more balance. No way do you expect Fredette to go for 35+ and Loyd 25+ again. Haws and Tav have to play better, and so does Emery. BYU is at its best when everyone contributes offensively because it makes them tougher to guard. And the fact of the matter is, BYU has to win with offense, and shooting in particular. Our offensive efficiency is our strength. Defensive rebounding a weakness. And as luck would have it KState is the best offensive rebounding team we have faced all year--by a huge margin.



Gotta be efficient on O, and not give up 2nd chance points. If we fail in either case, we lose.
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timmyboy
The four big questions are as follows, in my mind:

1. Will BYU shoot well from the outside?

2. Will BYU get to the line?

3. Will K-State shoot at their 40% clip or their 50% clip? They are two different teams depending on where they are at.

4. Will K-State rebound as well as it did against some of the best rebounding teams in the country (Kansas, Texas, Xavier), or will K-State rebound like it did against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Fort Hayes State University, Loyola?



My predictions:

1. BYU will finally have a breakout shooting game and shoot 40% from the 3.

2. BYU will get to the line, but not as much as they did during the regular season. I'd count on 24 free throws.

3. Kansas State will be flustered by a slowed Pullen and too much reliance on Clemente. Look for a 40% clip.

4. Kansas State will outrebound BYU by 10 boards.



End result: BYU will win 83-75.
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Gunk
declocoug wrote:
In the course of a season just about every team has one or two bad losses. K-State is a stellar basketball team has a lot of its strenghts where we are weak. This is going to be BY FAR the toughest team we've played all year. I'd almost prefer playing Syracuse over them, simply because of the uneven match-up....

I realize they are good. But so was Georgetown (supposedly). What I really want to know is what makes these guys real, and not pretenders like the Big East flukes we saw fall yesterday. What are these "strengths" that you speak of where BYU is weak? What does K-state do so well that should have Coach Rose and myself worried?


They're good...currently:



Kansas St. ranks just ahead of us in the Pomeroy Ratings at 7th (we're 8th).



Kansas St. ranks 5th in the Sagarin Ratings and we're 7th.



This will be a tough game. I watched a bit of their games yesterday and I was quite impressed with how they were moving the ball around. It wasn't just an inside game or just an outside game from the 10 min or so I watched, which means we'll have our hands full on defense. Kansas St. will probably first try to pound it inside given that's a weakness for us but if they shoot as well as I saw them shoot yesterday we won't be able to double up on them much.
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timmyboy
Lawboy wrote:
For BYU to win, they need more balance. No way do you expect Fredette to go for 35+ and Loyd 25+ again. Haws and Tav have to play better, and so does Emery. BYU is at its best when everyone contributes offensively because it makes them tougher to guard. And the fact of the matter is, BYU has to win with offense, and shooting in particular. Our offensive efficiency is our strength. Defensive rebounding a weakness. And as luck would have it KState is the best offensive rebounding team we have faced all year--by a huge margin.



Gotta be efficient on O, and not give up 2nd chance points. If we fail in either case, we lose.


All right, I have to bust out the stats a little here. While I agree that BYU is not a fantastic rebounding team, there's a few surprises in store for you:



1. BYU is #50 in the country in rebounding margin, outrebounding its opponents by 3.8 rebounds per game.

2. BYU is #8 in the country in opponent offensive rebounding percentage at 24.9% (and consequently #8 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage at 75.1%). This is calculated by dividing opponent's offensive rebounds by the sum of opponent's offensive rebounds and your defensive rebounds. That's actually a pretty incredible stat for the Cougars. Yesterday's game was a huge aberration in that respect (43.6%). So, BYU is actually pretty good (generally speaking) at keeping the other team off of the offensive boards.

3. Kansas St., however, is #4 in offensive rebounding percentage. The conflict between #2 and #3 above will be a big factor for the Cougars.

4. BYU, however, is #254 in offensive rebounding percentage of their own. BYU does not get many second chances.



Nonetheless, BYU has faced the #8 team in offensive rebounding percentage (SDSU) and was just slightly outrebounded both times.



Therefore, the Cougars are actually a pretty darn good defensive rebound team generally speaking, but a terrible offensive rebounding team. I think that is a very good reflection of their style of play.
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SpiffCoug
If BYU can somehow win the rebounding war, they will win. If they are very close (within 1 or 2) or even, they will have a very good chance. If they get killed on the glass, they will get blown out.
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BYULV
timmyboy wrote:
For BYU to win, they need more balance. No way do you expect Fredette to go for 35+ and Loyd 25+ again. Haws and Tav have to play better, and so does Emery. BYU is at its best when everyone contributes offensively because it makes them tougher to guard. And the fact of the matter is, BYU has to win with offense, and shooting in particular. Our offensive efficiency is our strength. Defensive rebounding a weakness. And as luck would have it KState is the best offensive rebounding team we have faced all year--by a huge margin.



Gotta be efficient on O, and not give up 2nd chance points. If we fail in either case, we lose.


All right, I have to bust out the stats a little here. While I agree that BYU is not a fantastic rebounding team, there's a few surprises in store for you:



1. BYU is #50 in the country in rebounding margin, outrebounding its opponents by 3.8 rebounds per game.

2. BYU is #8 in the country in opponent offensive rebounding percentage at 24.9% (and consequently #8 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage at 75.1%). This is calculated by dividing opponent's offensive rebounds by the sum of opponent's offensive rebounds and your defensive rebounds. That's actually a pretty incredible stat for the Cougars. Yesterday's game was a huge aberration in that respect (43.6%). So, BYU is actually pretty good (generally speaking) at keeping the other team off of the offensive boards.

3. Kansas St., however, is #4 in offensive rebounding percentage. The conflict between #2 and #3 above will be a big factor for the Cougars.

4. BYU, however, is #254 in offensive rebounding percentage of their own. BYU does not get many second chances.



Nonetheless, BYU has faced the #8 team in offensive rebounding percentage (SDSU) and was just slightly outrebounded both times.



Therefore, the Cougars are actually a pretty darn good defensive rebound team generally speaking, but a terrible offensive rebounding team. I think that is a very good reflection of their style of play.


That is a bit misleading as well, since BYU shoots close to 50% they have fewer offensive rebounds to get and they shoot either outside shots with long rebounds which usually go to the defense or Jimmer layups when he goes against 2-3 player (this of course leaves no offensive players around to get a rebound).



K-state is good, but their competition yesterday would have made Utah look like the NBA all-stars - that is not a good barometer. I like our chances, especially since we had a hard fought win and they cruised to victory. I think this will help us get off to a good start and they will take some time to adjust. Rose & Co. will have a good game plan in place to neutralize their "Strengths" while taking advantage of their weaknesses. I don't think they (BYU) came to win only one game.



I do agree that we need to get the rest of the team involved. It seems like its been awhile since we have had a breakout game from emery, tav or haws, or for that matter any of our bigs or semi-bigs. If we get back to the balance we had not long ago with a high percentage of assisted baskets, I think K-state has more problems with us then we have with them.



As for Abouo, he shouldn't start, but should get decent minutes off the bench. We should still start Miles and let him wear down some of their big guys then bring Davies in when they are thinking about having to work in the middle. But, yes, get Abouo in early and often this game.
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scott715
The front line needs to do more than box out. They need to keep their guy off the glass and the guards need to pick up the rebound. keep the second chances to a minimum and we will have a real shot to win. We will need more assists and team work to win this one.
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beauso79
I wish we were playing Villanova instead of K-State
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Mars


IMO, there's a good chance that KState blows us off the court worse than A&M did last year. They are just as big and rebound just as well, but are much better shooters led by elite guards. They will out-rebound us, badly. But if they break down our zone and make 3-pointers as well, we can't hope to keep it close.



BYU needs to:

1. Go hard for every defensive rebound (Davies, Abouo).

2. Get in a zone (limiting offensive rebounds and easy paint scoring) and defend the perimeter HARD. This may mean less JT and even less Jimmer.

3. Hit our 3s. Jimmer, Loyd, Emery, Tavernari, all need to be on fire from behind the line. Not just a high percentage, but a high number of attempts as well.

4. Draw obvious contact from moving defenders when we do drive to the hoop, causing multiple "and-ones".

5. Force turnovers, steal the ball, steal the ball, force turnovers!!
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beauso79
Mars wrote:


IMO, there's a good chance that KState blows us off the court worse than A&M did last year. They are just as big and rebound just as well, but are much better shooters led by elite guards. They will out-rebound us, badly. But if they break down our zone and make 3-pointers as well, we can't hope to keep it close.



BYU needs to:

1. Go hard for every defensive rebound (Davies, Abouo).

2. Get in a zone (limiting offensive rebounds and easy paint scoring) and defend the perimeter HARD. This may mean less JT and even less Jimmer.

3. Hit our 3s. Jimmer, Loyd, Emery, Tavernari, all need to be on fire from behind the line. Not just a high percentage, but a high number of attempts as well.

4. Draw obvious contact from moving defenders when we do drive to the hoop, causing multiple "and-ones".

5. Force turnovers, steal the ball, steal the ball, force turnovers!!




To be honest I wouldn't really care if JT didn't even see the floor, especially late in the game
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BYULV
I don't think we get blown out ala T&AM. I think our guys will be comfortable, playing to win as the underdogs. They will know what they need to do. Even if K-state is the best team we have played all year, I don't think they are that much better that they would blow us out. There are very few teams in the country that have won the "should win" games with the margins we have this year and have competed and had a chance to win every game this season [except the UNLV debacle, and we all know they sold their souls to the devil long ago just for the chance to be able to beat BYU on their court]. There is no reason to think K-state is so much better that they will run us out of the gym. They still have to stop us which no one has really been able to do completely this year. I think we are pretty good this year. I expect a back and forth battle all night.
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Mars
BYULV wrote:
[except the UNLV debacle, and we all know they sold their souls to the devil long ago just for the chance to be able to beat BYU on their court]. There is no reason to think K-state is so much better that they will run us out of the gym... I expect a back and forth battle all night.

I don't know... To me, KSU is like UNM, UNLV, and SDSU combined, but better.....
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cougarsunited
Mars wrote:
[except the UNLV debacle, and we all know they sold their souls to the devil long ago just for the chance to be able to beat BYU on their court]. There is no reason to think K-state is so much better that they will run us out of the gym... I expect a back and forth battle all night.

I don't know... To me, KSU is like UNM, UNLV, and SDSU combined, but better.....


I am definitely with you on that Mars, especially if we paly like we have in the last few games (TCU, UNLV, Florida), I am VERY worried.... in order to have a chance, we need Jimmer balanced (around 20pts.) solid Lloyd, and lots of contribution from Emery, Haws, Tav, and Noah or Abouo.
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cougarsunited
As a matter of fact, I think K-State is rather underrated if anything. I have the winner of this game going to the Final Four. (well... I have BYU taking the whole thing in all my brackets, but if we don't make it, K-State will give Kansas a mighty battle in the Final Four.
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BroncoBot
Mars wrote:
[except the UNLV debacle, and we all know they sold their souls to the devil long ago just for the chance to be able to beat BYU on their court]. There is no reason to think K-state is so much better that they will run us out of the gym... I expect a back and forth battle all night.

I don't know... To me, KSU is like UNM, UNLV, and SDSU combined, but better.....

I agree BYULV. Everyone keeps gushing about KSU. I don't think there is a single post out there about what K-state does so much better that BYU can't hang with them. And this is coming from the guy who was pretty disappointed in the way BYU played a few times this year.



So far all I've heard is Blah Blah Blah, K-state will blow BYU out, blah blah. And a couple laundry lists of stuff BYU must do to win, which for the most part are simply things BYU should be doing well in every game.



By the way, if K-state can give Kansas a battle, I'm sure BYU could as well. K-state got whipped by Kansas 2 or the 3 times they met up.
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