Good Night for BYU RPI

Playing TCU will hurt it, but that is inevitable. On the other hand, however, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah State, UTEP, and I'm assuming Nevada all get good wins. Also, Bradley lost to Northern Iowa, but I think this might actually boost their RPI, if it does, it just might be enough to squeak them into the top 100.

Anybody happen to know our current RPI after this weekend?

jmvcougar wrote:
Anybody happen to know our current RPI after this weekend?

23, not counting sunday's games.

FurriousCougar wrote:
23, not counting sunday's games.

Yeah, that worries me, and is the reason I think we NEED to play and beat UNLV and New Mexico next week. If you were to set the seeds by RPI, well, that'd be a 6 seed. Now, it's obviously not that simple, but considering BYU is the statistically worst-seeded College in America with respect to RPI, BY FAR, I don't want the Committee to have any extra incentive to put us in the 8-9 game.



As an aside, I'm pretty sure it was brought up on the board(s) last year the actual statistical analysis I'm talking about (I believe it was either GW or Dick Harmon that cited the guy), but I've googled the HECK out of this internet thing, and I just can't find it. I remember that the dude who put the numbers together is a statician from Utah (the state, not the university), and I think working for Weber State. I remember also that it was Temple that came in second in "seeding bias," but it was a very DISTANT second. Does ANYBODY remember what I'm talking about and have a link?

Does anyone know why RPI and Sagarin's ratings are so different? BYU and UNM are basically flip-flopped in these two. Sagarin has BYU at #9 and UNM at #23 whereas realtime RPI is almost the exact opposite.

BYULV wrote:
Does anyone know why RPI and Sagarin's ratings are so different? BYU and UNM are basically flip-flopped in these two. Sagarin has BYU at #9 and UNM at #23 whereas realtime RPI is almost the exact opposite.

Sagarin figures in home vs away weight and margin of victory; two things we dominate; let's hope the committee notices.

craigoscarson wrote:

Does anyone know why RPI and Sagarin's ratings are so different? BYU and UNM are basically flip-flopped in these two. Sagarin has BYU at #9 and UNM at #23 whereas realtime RPI is almost the exact opposite.

Sagarin figures in home vs away weight and margin of victory; two things we dominate; let's hope the committee notices.

They won't. ;)

BYULV wrote:
Does anyone know why RPI and Sagarin's ratings are so different? BYU and UNM are basically flip-flopped in these two. Sagarin has BYU at #9 and UNM at #23 whereas realtime RPI is almost the exact opposite.

RPI isn't actually a ranking (as in, it's not a statistical formula that incorporates a lot of different factors to try to say definitively which is the "best" team). It's a simple formula:



Team's winning percentage * 25%

Team's Opponents' winning percentage * 50%

Team's Opponents' Opponents' winning percentage * 25%



It is just one tool to determine overall strength of a team (but not necessarily their strength of schedule, though that obviously factors in, as you can see). Humorously, as simple as it is, it's actually about as accurate as (sometimes better than) the statistical rankings that supposed professionals concoct when all's said and done. Kinda funny.



If Sagarin sez we're worse than our RPI does, that means according to him, we've beaten team's that have played easy schedules, or we've beaten teams who have beaten teams who have played easy schedules, and uses different stastistical tricks to weight (read: BIAS) which wins are actually good wins and which wins aren't on any given team's schedule, and not just the wins themselves.