What UNLV 1st Round Matchup Benefits BYU Most?

Seeds 1-4 and 7-9 are as good as set in stone. New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, SDSU at the top, TCU, Wyoming, Air Force hauling up the rear. The only seeds that are not locked up drum-tight going into Saturday’s games are the 5th and 6th seeds. So it works out rather nicely that the two teams that will be occupying those seeds will be playing one another on Saturday, Utah at Colorado State, winner take...uh...all. A win by Utah gives them the 5 seed with room to spare. A win by CSU brings them into a tie with Utah, the Rams holding the tiebreaker with 2 wins over the Utes.



(In case anyone’s curious, the ONLY REMOTE possibilities for an interruption in the rest of the seedings are:

1- a COLLOSAL collapse by UNLV, at home, against Wyoming. That would give SDSU a better conference record, and the 3 seed.

2- a COLLOSAL collapse by BYU, on the road, against TCU. This, coupled with a CSU loss to Utah, would tie CSU and TCU, the tiebreaker going to the Frogs due to the aforementioned Cougar collapse. Neither are at all likely)



So my question is, who do you want to see as the 6-seed?



Both of these teams know a loss in this final game makes them home-town victim #1 in the Rebel Invitational, so chances are that’s extra motivation to pull out a W. Interestingly enough, however, a win by Utah pits them against San Diego State, who they lost twice to in the regular season, whereas (how on God’s green Earth?) they took it to UNLV both home and away. Obviously it’d be no reason to throw a game, but the Utes might be curious whether it’d be better for them in the tourney to go with what works (against UNLV), or bank on a third-time’s-the-charm win (against SDSU).



I see no way whatsoever that EITHER Utah or CSU would actually pick up the win against Vegas in the tourney. What I haven’t decided 100% is whether I think Utah or CSU would take more out of them. BYU wants UNLV to be as physically and emotionally tired after the 1st game as possible.



Conventional wisdom says that Utah is the more talented team, and would put up a bigger fight. UNLV would have to gameplan harder for Utah, as the Rebels have already come out the loser twice against them, leaving less time to practice/gameplan for BYU. You can bet after watching tape of the Utah game, Lon Kruger will be expecting more emphasis on the post than in the two previous games against us. If the Rebels are actually worried about a loss in the 1st round, they may not be able to tweak their defense given limited time. Conversely, Utah is in absolute disarray right now, and that, coupled with a season-ending loss at CSU, and the loss of lurch version 4.2, would be in an absolute freefall.



Conventional wisdom says that CSU is the weaker opponent. Hard to argue with a 41 point DRUBBING the Rams recieved just 2 weeks ago on the UNLV floor. Hard to believe the next result wouldn't be different than the last. CSU doesn't really have the depth to come up with any wrinkles in their gameplan to throw at UNLV. Conversely, a win over Utah would give them some confidence. Nobody's saying CSU would win that game, but if they were to surprise an overconfident Rebel team and give them a game, a tighter-than-expected win may plant a seed of doubt in UNLV's mind about the next game, not to mention take more out of them physically and emotionally. Lastly, I stick to my assertion that it's TOUGH to beat a team 3 times in a season. I've said before that even Air Force almost beat us in the 1st round last year. That theory favors CSU giving UNLV a game more than Utah.



So who do you want to see win in Saturday's matchup between Utah and CSU, since the loser will be taking on UNLV before us?

Now with Foster down, the Utes will be hard pressed to repeat their win over UNLV in Vegas earlier this season.

Doesn't matter, UNLV will easily take care of either. It'll be a tough tournament, home team in the second round and then UNM.... If we don't win the next four games we'll be anywhere between a 7-12 seed... Nice win, but LOTS and LOTS of work still to be done.

cougarsunited wrote:
Doesn't matter, UNLV will easily take care of either. It'll be a tough tournament, home team in the second round and then UNM.... If we don't win the next four games we'll be anywhere between a 7-12 seed... Nice win, but LOTS and LOTS of work still to be done.

Utah won in Vegas earlier this year, so they have that. having said that, Utah lost foster last night for the season, and his inside defense will be missed v. UNLV. I still hope Utah plays UNLV, because they will be motivated to play after their bad showing v. BYU and they will need a win for any hopes of getting into the CBI.

If BYU is not healthy (Jimmer), we're probably "iffy" in the MWC tournament. If BYU is healthy, I still say they win the tourney--regardless of who we end up playing. As glad as I am to see Davies and Loyd play some great ball, we're not going to win the tourney with those two as our main guys. Jimmer has to be healthy, and Davies had to contribute when he gets minutes, but Hartsock has to play well, and Davies has to play well when he comes in. Somehow I don't think Tavarnari matters much; if he plays great, all the better, but if he disappears, it doesn't really matter.

cougarsunited wrote:
Doesn't matter, UNLV will easily take care of either. It'll be a tough tournament, home team in the second round and then UNM.... If we don't win the next four games we'll be anywhere between a 7-12 seed... Nice win, but LOTS and LOTS of work still to be done.

I know that anyone can speculate as to the seed we'll be getting by the comittee[and prob. be wrong],but Jeez i hope you're wrong with regard to the 7-12 thing.i think if we win vs. TCU and make it to the conference championship game,which i think is quite likely,I see no way we are rewarded with less than a 5 seed.Just my opinion,and yes,that's taking into account the inevitable escalation of our seed based on our history in the tourney in the first round the last few years.I think the comittee may even feel a bit guilty for pairing us vs. A&M two years in a row,which is quite unprecedented.

Well, shoot. It looks like most of us were wrong. We really should have known. If there's one thing we can count on from Utah, it's to suck it up when it matters most. UNLV might as well not have PLAYED a game on Thursday for how much the Utes took out of 'em. I mean, nobody expected Utah to take this one, but of ALL of the lower seeds, THEY'RE the ones that couldn't last more than one half without falling apart. CSU took it to the last second, TCU didn't run out of steam until 5 minutes or so, even AIR FORCE managed to make theirs a game until the last 4 minutes or so!



Utah just flat out SUCKS!!!