Archived Topic

Fredette and the MWC officiating

by CannonCougar85 · 3/3/2010

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CannonCougar85
This is not my research. I received an email from a friend and decided to copy and paste to CC. All credit goes to he who did the research!
We realize that in basketball, officiating, by nature, has to be subjective. Overall, we think game officials

do a very good job, considering the job requirements.

Most coaches acknowledge the rigors of officiating, but sometimes they can also get a little annoyed.

The most annoyed we have seen BYU’s Dave Rose this season was a few weeks back when he obviously

was disgusted with the lack of calls given Jimmer Fredette going to the basket in the final minutes

of the BYU-UNM game in Albuquerque.

We acknowledge that our perspective may be a little tainted because we see way more of BYU basketball

than we do of other teams in the league. We admit that our viewpoint is very subjective, but in

our opinion, Jimmer Fredette is not getting the same calls by conference officials that he was getting

in other games officiated by non-conference officials.

We are aware of all the variables of officiating. Players that go to the basket get more calls than jump

shooters. But again, in our opinion, Fredette doesn’t get equal treatment when he goes to the basket

in MWC games as he did in non-MWC games.

We also realize that officials tend to swallow the whistle when a blowout is in progress and seem to be

more interested in keeping the clock running than putting a player at the line. That is understandable

and appreciated.

With all of that said, here are some numbers we find interesting when it comes to three of the top players

in the Mountain West Conference.

In all games (conference and non-conference) played to date by Jimmer Fredette, Tre’von Willis of

UNLV and Dairese Gary of New Mexico, here are their free throw numbers. All three have basically

played the same number of contests.

Fredette, overall this season, has shot 169 free throws and made 152 of those attempts.

Gary, overall this season, has shot 191 free throws and made 143 of his attempts.

Willis, overall this season, has shot 171 free throws and made 143 of his attempts.

Here are the free throw numbers for the same three players in Mountain West Conference play only.

Fredette, in MWC games, has shot 75 free throws and converted 65 of those.

Gary, in MWC games, has shot 111 free throws, making 85 of them.

Willis, in MWC games, has had 117 free throws, making 94 of them.

According to our math, in non-conference contests this season, Fredette had 94 free throw attempts,

Gary had 80 and Willis just 54.

As soon as conference play started, those numbers flip-flopped with Willis getting 117 attempts, Gary

at 111 and Fredette just 75 free throw attempts.


It was obvious that Dave Rose thought Fredette should have had more calls, especially in the late

going of the first UNM game when he was taking the ball to the basket and never got to the line.

We saw at least seven or eight times in last week’s games against Wyoming and CSU when Fredette

was knocked to the floor while going to the basket and nothing was called. Maybe it would have been

different if those games were hanging in the balance, but who knows?

All we do know is that when it comes to free throw attempts, it appears that Fredette is not getting the

same calls in conference play that he was getting in non-conference games.

Maybe conference defenders against Fredette are just much better than those non-conference players

who defended the junior guard from New York. Maybe Fredette isn’t as aggressive in MWC games

in going to the basket. Again, who knows? All we really know is that there is a discrepancy between

the numbers of non-conference games and MWC games when it comes to Fredette and his frequency

of going to the free throw line. We don’t think you can blame it on his early conference season bout

with mononucleosis.

We will also bet that when BYU gets into NCAA post-season action, that Fredette will spend more time

at the charity stripe than he currently does now in MWC play.

Again, these are just our observations.
G
Gunk
Very interesting. Before being sold on a conspiracy, though, it would be interesting to see how many "blow-out" games BYU has had compared to UNLV and UNM. Using the same logic as the researcher, if BYU has more blow outs (which I believe we do) than less calls would have been called against Jimmer and that could account for the discrepancy.



A more accurate study, may be to examine trips to the line between the three players when UNM, UNLV or BYU play each other. How many fouls do Willis and Gary get called for when UNLV and UNM play each other compared to when BYU plays those teams?
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stuckinbig10country
The only issue that I have with this research is that there is an implication that its other conference's officials that reffed all the pre-season games.



He doesn't get the calls, but I think this research is only a partially accurate.



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SpiffCoug
Here's some more research I did. I went back and looked at 1st and 2nd team All-Conference guards (had to be listed as "G" on the MWC's list). All the stats and names I took from the MWC's site.



I listed Field Goal Attempts, 3-point attempts, Free Throw Attempts, Personal Fouls, 3S% is the percentage of field goals were 3s (I wanted to see if players that camped out behind the line got more calls or not) and FG/FT is the number of Field Goal attempts per Free Throw attempt.



Obviously, a low FG/FT is indicative of drawing more calls. At the end I also broke down the totals and percentages by team to see if BYU is getting a shorter end of the stick as compared to the rest of the conference.



The top line by each player is stats through all games. The second line is just conference games. The MWC stats did not have conference only stats beyond the season ending in 2007. Also an * indicates a MWC POY.


Player      Team   FGA  3PA  FTA  PF  3S%   FG/FT
2010
Fredette BYU 391 137 180 29 0.350 2.17
204 74 86 14 0.363 2.37
Gay UNM 223 37 212 62 0.166 1.05
125 21 132 29 0.168 0.95
Willis UNLV 319 117 177 69 0.367 1.80
189 67 123 31 0.354 1.54
2009
Fredette BYU 383 136 137 43 0.355 2.80
196 67 71 23 0.342 2.76
Dandrige UNM 364 28 201 75 0.077 1.81
191 11 93 33 0.058 2.05
Cummard BYU 385 93 140 82 0.242 2.75
184 44 67 39 0.239 2.75
Adams UNLV 389 145 165 48 0.373 2.36
197 64 78 29 0.325 2.53
Willis UNLV 277 102 167 83 0.368 1.66
157 54 86 39 0.344 1.83
Gary UNM 165 51 154 99 0.309 1.07
72 23 63 48 0.319 1.14
2008
Cummard* BYU 348 127 112 93 0.365 3.11
157 58 59 40 0.369 2.66
Adams UNLV 443 185 178 63 0.418 2.49
217 99 82 36 0.456 2.65
Giddens* UNM 407 75 157 64 0.184 2.59
223 38 79 30 0.170 2.82
Anderson AF 299 141 142 58 0.472 2.11
160 69 77 29 0.431 2.08
Bryant Utah 325 201 64 63 0.618 5.08
174 107 37 32 0.615 4.70
Ewing Wyoming 376 168 161 64 0.447 2.34
203 102 73 33 0.502 2.78
2007
Heath SDSu 534 247 134 54 0.463 3.99
268 122 66 28 0.455 4.06
White UNLV 409 15 125 85 0.037 3.27
163 2 54 30 0.012 3.02
Ewing Wyoming 423 167 241 87 0.395 1.76
202 81 121 43 0.401 1.67
Adams UNLV 430 187 155 74 0.435 2.77
191 78 77 28 0.408 2.48
2006
Heath* SDSu 481 240 119 54 0.499 4.04
Hood AF 315 96 113 62 0.305 2.79
Walters UNM 353 151 142 86 0.428 2.49
2005
Straight Wyoming 413 162 150 62 0.392 2.75
Jackson Utah 220 134 133 66 0.609 1.65
Heath SDSu 432 151 161 53 0.350 2.68
Hood AF 308 117 80 71 0.380 3.85

Team Stats
BYU 1507 493 569 247 0.327 2.65
741 243 283 116 0.328 2.62
UNM 1512 342 866 386 0.226 1.75
611 93 367 140 0.152 1.66
UNLV 2267 751 967 422 0.331 2.34
1114 364 500 193 0.327 2.23
SDSU 1447 638 414 161 0.441 3.50
268 122 66 28 0.455 4.06
Utah 545 335 197 129 0.615 2.77
174 107 37 32 0.615 4.70
Wyoming 1212 497 552 213 0.410 2.20
405 183 194 76 0.452 2.09
AF 922 354 335 191 0.384 2.75
160 69 77 29 0.431 2.08



S
SpiffCoug
I'm trying to do some analysis on the numbers. Maybe I'll post what I see tomorrow.
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SpiffCoug
Some early observations:



The best ever at drawing fouls is Dairese Gary. This year, especially in conference play, he is the only 1st or 2nd team all-MWC player to actually be shooting more FTs than FGs. The two best seasons at drawing fouls have been Gary this year followed by last year.



Jimmer's best is this year 2.37 FG/FT, but it's only the eighth best in the MWC the last six years. Both Gary and Willis the last two years are better than Jimmer.
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northerncougar
Problem with this line of thinking is that the assumption is made that everything is the same: The number of minutes played, how close the game is at the end, shot selection, who the officials are, etc. If the game is close at the end, Jimmer is likely to be shooting long shots. That means less fouls by virtue of shot selection. The assumption is made that the same officials are officiating the same way in every situation. To me this stats mean only the number of fouls called. That's it.



Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.
G
Gunk
northerncougar wrote:
Problem with this line of thinking is that the assumption is made that everything is the same: The number of minutes played, how close the game is at the end, shot selection, who the officials are, etc. If the game is close at the end, Jimmer is likely to be shooting long shots. That means less fouls by virtue of shot selection. The assumption is made that the same officials are officiating the same way in every situation. To me this stats mean only the number of fouls called. That's it.



Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.


Goo observation. In close games, BYU shoots the 3 as opposed to pounding it inside. Whereas, UNM and UNLV do the opposite.
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FurriousCougar
I think perhaps the biggest factor to consider in these numbers is Jimmer's ability to finish. I mean I could be wrong, but he seems to get a lot of And 1s. Thus, he could get closer to the same amount of foul calls, but shoot less free throws because he makes the shot more when getting fouled.



Having said that, I don't think Jimmer gets the same treatment.
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